https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/nflviewguide012624/nfl-conference-championships-playoffs-schedule-guide-odds-injuries-stats
NFL playoff game picks, guide: Chiefs-Ravens, Lions-49ers
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ESPN staff
Jan 26, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
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The NFL playoffs' conference championship round schedule for the 2024 season has two great matchups, and we've got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup's biggest X factor, Matt Bowen identifies a key game-planning matchup to watch in both games, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. Finally, Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for both games. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for an exciting weekend of NFL playoff football.
Let's get into the full conference championship slate, including Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy vs. Jared Goff.
Jump to a matchup:
KC-BAL | DET-SF
(3) Chiefs at (1) Ravens
3 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -3.5 (44.5)
What to watch for: This game marks the first playoff meeting between Mahomes and Jackson. In the regular season, Mahomes is 3-1 against Jackson, which is the most wins of any starting quarterback against Jackson (regular season and playoffs). In their most recent meeting in 2021, Jackson beat Mahomes and the Chiefs by rushing for 107 yards and scoring three touchdowns, including flipping into the end zone for the winning score. -- Jamison Hensley
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Bold prediction: The Ravens and Chiefs will combine for at least 45 points. These were the top two teams in the regular season in scoring defense, with Baltimore leading the way at 16.5 points allowed per game and Kansas City right behind at 17.3. But Jackson and Mahomes will be too good to stop, and each team will top 20 points. -- Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Steve Spagnuolo has been the Chiefs' defensive coordinator since 2019. In that time no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (26) in the regular season than the Chiefs.
Matchup X factor: Mahomes' scrambling ability. The Chiefs have had a rough time in the passing game all season long, and it's only going to get tougher against Baltimore, which allowed the second-lowest open score to opposing receivers (ESPN's receiver tracking metrics) and recorded the most sacks in the league (60). Mahomes is a very effective scrambler and will have to generate production with his legs on Sunday. -- Walder
Game-plan key: Kansas City's defense loves to use man coverage in the red zone, especially inside its own 10-yard line. Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken should have some answers there, with Jackson's receivers running crossers and delaying their releases. The Ravens were eighth in red zone efficiency, scoring a TD on 61.8% of their trips inside the 20. Read more at ESPN+. -- Bowen
Injuries: Chiefs | Ravens
Officiating note: Referee Shawn Smith's regular-season crew threw the third-most flags in the NFL this season, an average of 14.8 per game. Smith has also made an above-average number of roughness calls. He threw the third-most flags for roughing the passer (eight), and overall his crew ranked No. 1 with 25 unnecessary roughness calls. -- Seifert
Betting nugget: Mahomes is 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread against Jackson. Three of the four meetings went over the total, with each matchup combining for at least 51 points. The average for the previous four over/unders was 52.4 with none lower than 49.
Moody's pick: Ravens 25, Chiefs, 21
Walder's pick: Ravens 26, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.6% (by an average of 4.6 points)