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AFCWEST

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Everything posted by AFCWEST
 
 
  1. You dont know what he has? This is do or die. If Pat can go let him go. He has all offseason to heal.
  2. I dont feel good about this game. Maybe KC can get a lucky turnover or a pick six. Thats what it may take. Looks like the Jags will score often against this D. Im really surprised the D is getting beat. Could be much worse than 10 points. The Chiefs had long scoring drives.
  3. If Im the Jags I dont worry about the deep pass much. Thats an area Henne is not good at. He throws a poor deep ball.
  4. Watch film it shows Jags want to run wide and Kirk is their Kelce. Obvious yet Jags are running it well too. KC has looked good against the run prior.
  5. Maybe they will retape Mahomes, give him a pain killer and he comes back in.
  6. Wet field and conditions could make dropping 8 a liability. Lots of three tight end sets today from KC. I actually, call me crazy, think KC will run the ball.
  7. Patrick Mahomes has scrambled 119 consecutive times without being sacked, the longest streak in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Mahomes also holds the 2nd-longest streak (108 scrambles), which lasted from Week 11, 2019 to Week 5, 2020 Mahomes is very efficient with his decision-making to scramble, proven by the fact that he has not scrambled into a sack since the AFC Championship in 2021 — two years ago! That skill will be important against Jacksonville, especially on obvious passing downs when the Jaguars send four edge-rushing types at once. Scrambling can not only negate that pressure but relieve Mahomes from forcing a throw that isn’t there against seven in coverage.
  8. Chiefs vs. Jaguars: Kelce goes berserk When the Chiefs and Jaguars played back in Week 10, Travis Kelce had a good game. He caught 6 of 7 passes thrown in his direction, totaling 81 yards and a touchdown. But as we know, Kelce is capable of much more than even that stat line. And the Jaguars struggled badly to defend tight ends this season. Jacksonville ranked 32nd (also known as last) in the NFL in DVOA on throws to tight ends, according to Football Outsiders. The Jags yielded 81 receptions for 1,066 yards and seven scores to players at the position, and we have seen their linebackers, in particular, get taken advantage of in coverage throughout the year. Even against the Chargers last week, Gerald Everett and Donal Parham combined for 10 receptions for 133 yards and a score on 13 targets. Expect Kelce to have a big day on Saturday
  9. Bengals RG Alex Cappa (ankle) and LT Jonah Williams (knee) are out for the Divisional Round. Joe Burrow enters the Divisional Round behind an offensive line decimated by injuries, facing a Buffalo defense with the NFL's 14th highest pressure rate. Burrow last week against the Ravens was sacked four times while narrowly avoiding a handful of other sacks and facing pressure on nearly every second half drop back. Expect Burrow to pepper his short-area targets against the Bills.
  10. Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not done well against these quick pressures. He’s faced 167 this season — and in those reps, his EPA is -71.5 with seven interceptions and a passer rating of just 56. But when he hasn’t seen quick pressures, his EPA has been +201.6 with 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions — and a passer rating of 117.2. According to NGS, Kansas City left tackle Orlando Brown has allowed just 12 pressures in the last seven weeks — and only two have been quick pressures. If Brown can keep Allen relatively quiet, Mahomes should have the time to pick apart the Jacksonville defense.
  11. Jacksonville’s interior line — guards Tyler Shatley and Brandon Scherff, plus center Luke Fortner — will have the responsibility of stopping Jones on Saturday. Per Pro Football Focus, this trio rates below average on pass blocking — and both Scherff and Fortner rank well below average at their positions. Even worse for the Jaguars, both have been limited with injuries this week. In the Week 10 game against Jacksonville, Jones had 1.5 sacks — and defensive tackle Khalen Saunders added a sack of his own from the interior. Expect Jones to make an impact early and often on Saturday.
  12. Christian Kirk in the slot vs. Trent McDuffie Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed has been the Chiefs’ primary slot defender for quite a while — but since Week 16, Trent McDuffie has taken over the role. Acccording to Next Gen Stats, McDuffie has lined up in the slot for 77 snaps in those three games, while Sneed has been there for only four. In that period, McDuffie has allowed six catches for 49 yards and a touchdown — but if you exclude the fourth quarter of the 31-13 blowout against the Las Vegas Raiders, it’s just two catches for 10 yards and no touchdowns. Over these three games, McDuffie has completely locked down opposing slot receivers. We should expect that to continue during the playoffs. His skills will be needed there, because Christian Kirk — the Jaguars’ best receiver — runs most of his snaps from the slot. On the season, he has 60 catches for 815 yards and four touchdowns from that alignment. Those numbers all rank second in the league from the slot. Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawerence is likely to target Kirk early and often. Saturday’s game will be a big test for Kansas City’s first-round rookie.
  13. The question is does Lawrence throw well in the cold? Most QBs do not throw as well. Jags have won 7 in a row so I dont think this is a trap game. They remind me of Cinn last year. Up and coming for sure. Last 12 games Lawrence #s very close to PM.
  14. Tom Brady made $512 million from the NFL before inking that $375 million analyst contract with Fox Sports
  15. I have seen Mahomes throw it well in these conditions. Advantage KC
 
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