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Opinions on Houston's dollar value


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If the Chiefs keep Houston, they have to pay him $21,100.000

If the Chiefs cut Houston, they have to pay him $7,100,000 next year, with $14,000,000 in cap savings. (I'm ignoring the year after).

Since they have to pay $7,100,000 regardless, a simple question is do you think Houston is worth $14,000,000 to the Chiefs next year?

Again, this is just everyone's opinion, so let's play nice with each other.  

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It's not a matter of worth IMO. With the expected cuts and the rookie pool we'll likely have about 27-28 in cap space. Allocating 14 of that to Houston would mean letting Ford go and possibly not being able to frontload some extensions (like Jones and Hill). The rest will be used on FAs and such already.

If you ask me I would much rather pay Houston that 14 million rather than giving Ford 14-17 for a year as he's much better player even being 2 years older. However Houston will be 31 next year and likely won't have much trade value so they are probably thinking about getting the most out of him before leaving KC.

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4 hours ago, Balto said:

I’d tag Ford and try to shop both in hopes at least 1 good offer comes in.  Best case both Houston and Ford get great trade value and we move forward with the D rebuild.

I agree both should be on the market right now. If Veach is willing to pay big bucks to a DE there are better options at FA that are cheaper and younger and if they want to groom our own guy there are some decent stop gaps as well. 

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27 minutes ago, Biggjliv4 said:

Curious what is the market rate for a complete LB that can get 9 to 12 sacks a season and a few TO? Is a player like that still going to cost us 14m? If it's close to that price then why unload Houston? 

I dont think we would  cut him and go looking in free agency. The factor is what we have behind Houston. 

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40 minutes ago, Biggjliv4 said:

Curious what is the market rate for a complete LB that can get 9 to 12 sacks a season and a few TO? Is a player like that still going to cost us 14m? If it's close to that price then why unload Houston? 

Imo, you’d have to let Ford walk and Houston is on the decline and next year we would be on the hook for 20 million for a year older player with no trade value.   So the other option is keep Ford and get a 3rd rounder or a player. Also Ford won’t cost us 20 mill next year if we decide to sign him.    I think Houston is better at this point in time but they are close enough the second option is better.  jmo though

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1 hour ago, Biggjliv4 said:

Curious what is the market rate for a complete LB that can get 9 to 12 sacks a season and a few TO? Is a player like that still going to cost us 14m? If it's close to that price then why unload Houston? 

I see more of the Patriots way thing here.  Unload Houston while he has any kind of value

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39 minutes ago, Lamardirts said:

Imo, you’d have to let Ford walk and Houston is on the decline and next year we would be on the hook for 20 million for a year older player with no trade value.   So the other option is keep Ford and get a 3rd rounder or a player. Also Ford won’t cost us 20 mill next year if we decide to sign him.    I think Houston is better at this point in time but they are close enough the second option is better.  jmo though

The film breakdown shows Ford as the superior player who demands more double teams and has a bigger big play impact than Houston.  But the real question here is how Spags sees both in a 4-3 scheme. Pretty clear after watching tape and seeing Houston being shopped how he feels.  

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I agree with this article about Houston...I think he fits Spags SAM position perfectly.

 

SAM linebacker - When most think of the 4-3 defense, they think of three off-ball linebackers on the second level behind four defensive linemen. With the 4-3 Under, one of those off-ball linebackers shifts down close to the line of scrimmage — still standing — and can rush the passer or drop into coverage to carry a tight end to the safeties in the second level. During Spagnuolo’s second run as a defensive coordinator with the New York Giants, he acquired Olivier Vernon and Devon Kennard. Vernon played this role sparingly, but was still effective. Vernon is a large outside linebacker with limited coverage ability but was able to defend the run very well off of the tight end and could find a lot of success as a pass rusher standing up. If that sounds familiar to you, it should — it’s quite similar to what Justin Houston has offered the Chiefs recently.

*However, Kennard was the primary option for Spagnuolo in his second run. A 256-pound linebacker with good rush skills, Kennard offered a little more speed as a hybrid player off the edge, able to carry a tight end to the safety.

Depending on if Spagnuolo goes bigger or smaller, Houston could be a fit in this role should the Chiefs retain him.

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52 minutes ago, sith13 said:

Yep, it's more of a giving up on either Ford or Houston in favor of Speaks for cap purposes. Unless both guys leave there won't be a big name FA coming in to create more cap problems. 

Disagree. I think they sign a younger impact player and maybe two who better fit Spags system.  Very clearly Spags sees Ford as the better fit here and is willing to lose Houston to get at least one guy he really wants. That’s my impression anyway.  

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17 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Disagree. I think they sign a younger impact player and maybe two who better fit Spags system.  Very clearly Spags sees Ford as the better fit here and is willing to lose Houston to get at least one guy he really wants. That’s my impression anyway.  

Weak-side defensive end - The Weak-side defensive end — also called the “LEO” — in the 4-3 Under is typically the best pass rusher on the team. Putting his hand in the dirt, this defender is responsible for weak-side run contain opposite the tight end and getting after the quarterback. With the Chiefs current personnel, this would be an easy fill for Dee Ford. Limited coverage responsibility, ability to set an edge, and — most importantly — a great pass rusher are all things that we’ve seen from Dee Ford this season.

 

Kinda worried about the "set an edge" part BUT in Spags 4-3 Under he has typically liked to run a smaller LEO that his priority 1A is pass rush and 1B also pass rush haha

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My understanding is this deal comes in at between $12M and $14M per year. Strong for Graham, who now gets to stay home.

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3 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

Disagree. I think they sign a younger impact player and maybe two who better fit Spags system.  Very clearly Spags sees Ford as the better fit here and is willing to lose Houston to get at least one guy he really wants. That’s my impression anyway.  

I agree. But I think that impact player is going to be in the secondary. Maybe both players if they do indeed find the money for 2 splash signings. My money is on one second contract stud. Probably a safety. But this thing has to be built by hitting on draft picks going forward. We are gonna have the highest paid player in the league sooner than later.

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3 hours ago, Balto said:

Weak-side defensive end - The Weak-side defensive end — also called the “LEO” — in the 4-3 Under is typically the best pass rusher on the team. Putting his hand in the dirt, this defender is responsible for weak-side run contain opposite the tight end and getting after the quarterback. With the Chiefs current personnel, this would be an easy fill for Dee Ford. Limited coverage responsibility, ability to set an edge, and — most importantly — a great pass rusher are all things that we’ve seen from Dee Ford this season.

 

Kinda worried about the "set an edge" part BUT in Spags 4-3 Under he has typically liked to run a smaller LEO that his priority 1A is pass rush and 1B also pass rush haha

I think more than a strength thing its about Ford not overrunning the play and simply forcing runners back inside. But you are right that is the concern with him at that position. I think some people on this board fail to understand the value a guy who can pressure the QB has in this league. Those people need to watch GMs and Coaches talk at the combine because its a central theme. And Ford was elite at it last year. With him to me its about marginalizing the running defense and hoping he stays healthy. But that's why the Tag works well here. 

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22 minutes ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I agree. But I think that impact player is going to be in the secondary. Maybe both players if they do indeed find the money for 2 splash signings. My money is on one second contract stud. Probably a safety. But this thing has to be built by hitting on draft picks going forward. We are gonna have the highest paid player in the league sooner than later.

I agree completely. I think they look for impact safety or corner in free agency and then sign more of a value system fit front seven guy. 

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4 minutes ago, liquidfriend said:

The issue with Dee Ford is he really doesn't set the edge and really tries to run 100 mph right to the QB and is susceptible to plays being ran right at him, which is an issue in the LEO role.

Yep. He has to keep containment. That's really it. But he and Chris Jones have both been known to blow that. I think Spags and Daly can help there though. 

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5 hours ago, Balto said:

Weak-side defensive end - The Weak-side defensive end — also called the “LEO” — in the 4-3 Under is typically the best pass rusher on the team. Putting his hand in the dirt, this defender is responsible for weak-side run contain opposite the tight end and getting after the quarterback. With the Chiefs current personnel, this would be an easy fill for Dee Ford. Limited coverage responsibility, ability to set an edge, and — most importantly — a great pass rusher are all things that we’ve seen from Dee Ford this season.

 

Kinda worried about the "set an edge" part BUT in Spags 4-3 Under he has typically liked to run a smaller LEO that his priority 1A is pass rush and 1B also pass rush haha

In Spags 4-3 Ford seems to fit basically as JPP. Pure pass rusher that's not really a DE but a position of its own. 

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Ford was slightly above average in run stop grades in 2018.  That's all you need with an elite edge rusher.  He certainly improved in this area last year.  TBD how he would do as a Leo but I would think he'd be fine.  Nobody gets paid big bucks to stop the run, you just can't be a huge liability.  Earlier in his career he was, but that's not the case anymore.  Well at least in his contract year 😀

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21 minutes ago, xen said:

Ford was slightly above average in run stop grades in 2018.  That's all you need with an elite edge rusher.  He certainly improved in this area last year.  TBD how he would do as a Leo but I would think he'd be fine.  Nobody gets paid big bucks to stop the run, you just can't be a huge liability.  Earlier in his career he was, but that's not the case anymore.  Well at least in his contract year 😀

I agree with this. Also as a pass rusher Ford excelled at the most important type of pressure...the strip sack. He single handedly cut half of the Chiefs offensive turnovers in half by getting these sacks on the drive after a turnover. That is invaluable. 

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If Ford has turned a corner and what we saw last year was what he brings moving forward, then a little weakness against the run is worth the QB pressure. We don’t have anyone other than Jones that can create that kind of pressure.

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