kkuenn 3,613 Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Good article with 3 pages in it. Far to long to copy and paste. Thoughts as the season they say would be his floor is still a damn good one. https://arrowheadaddict.com/2019/03/30/predicting-patrick-mahomes-encore-mvp-season/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balto 723 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 Didn’t read....buuuut Floor: 40, 4000 Probably: 50, 5000 Ceiling: 60, 6000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkuenn 3,613 Posted April 9, 2019 Author Share Posted April 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Balto said: Didn’t read....buuuut Floor: 40, 4000 Probably: 50, 5000 Ceiling: 60, 6000 I will help you out on the last page they state this: So, based on this small model, Mahomes will throw for 4,851 yards, with 39 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. He will complete 64% of his passes and have a passer rating of 100. In other words, this predicts he will regress in every major category, but still have a statistically great season. Now, this prediction is derived from only five player’s seasonal transitions. In reality, the more members of a sample that you have the more reliable a prediction and vice versa. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many seasons in the last generation or two of quarterbacks comparable to Mahomes’ 2018 campaign. As such, five will have to do for now. Given the small sample size, and the low statistical reliability, I’d look at this as the floor for Mahomes’ 2019 campaign. My gut tells me he won’t throw for 50 touchdowns two seasons in a row, as that would be a Herculean feat never before accomplished. But, I do think he will likely come close to 5,000 yards, 45 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The main statistical improvement I think we’ll see is his completion percentage. These stats would likely put him in the conversation for a consecutive MVP award, and I think most Chiefs’ fans would be satisfied with this encore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sith13 1,746 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 39-18 doesn't sound good. I think Mahomes will progress with his decision making and keep a similar TD-INT ratio to 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xen 1,010,220 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 History says he won't be able to maintain this production. History also says a 2nd year player can't throw 50/5000. Soooooo.... meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,694 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 I'm good with the 4800 yrds and 39 TD's.. hard to fathom 18 ints but I'd say 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sith13 1,746 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 2 hours ago, oldtimer said: I'm good with the 4800 yrds and 39 TD's.. hard to fathom 18 ints but I'd say 10-12 Yep, those are pretty good numbers as long as the interceptions are down a bit. I think the estimation looks at Mahomes as more of a wild card but he has definitely shown more smarts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkuenn 3,613 Posted April 9, 2019 Author Share Posted April 9, 2019 2 hours ago, oldtimer said: I'm good with the 4800 yrds and 39 TD's.. hard to fathom 18 ints but I'd say 10-12 Well the article thinks the same but having him at 45 tds with 10 ints as their guess. The other stats they derived from a small sample size of QBs after their career years base in next years stats. They also all were much older too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mloe68 1,521 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 I predict lots of TD passes to the beer chugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azchief21 5,278 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 Now that he has experience: 60,000 w/ 60 TDs & 10 INTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilkie 1,518 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 10 hours ago, xen said: History says he won't be able to maintain this production. History also says a 2nd year player can't throw 50/5000. Soooooo.... meh. Sophomore slump? Not technically a sophomore but........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xen 1,010,220 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 Just now, wilkie said: Sophomore slump? Not technically a sophomore but........... Well nobody has done 5000/50 twice so odds are against it. But frankly I don't think you can compare Mahomes to anybody else so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilkie 1,518 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 We will miss Mitch Morse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMO 6,812 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 14 hours ago, wilkie said: We will miss Mitch Morse Did we last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe_Chief 1,092 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Morse has spent more time rehabbing than he has on the field. Not a huge drop off from Morse to Reiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sith13 1,746 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 16 hours ago, wilkie said: Sophomore slump? Not technically a sophomore but........... Well he did play that one game as a rookie so 5000/50 might be his sophomore slump 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mloe68 1,521 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Realistically a season like that has only happened three times in history so its more than unlikely in back to back seasons. Also without a dominant RB like Kareem teams will key on him more and make our red zone more of a struggle. That's why I'd like to draft a RB to at least compliment Williams. I'll go 36 TDs, 9 INTs....(a career season for 99 percent of QBs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xen 1,010,220 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 8 hours ago, Joe_Chief said: Morse has spent more time rehabbing than he has on the field. Not a huge drop off from Morse to Reiter. While true, the fact remains Morse can run the outside zone shit Andy likes, but Reiter is physically limited. Doubt he is in the long term plans other than a backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhitter 1,426 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 I was thinking...if the defense is better, perhaps KC doesn't have to scroe 40-50 points and still wind up on the losing end. Maybe they won't feel like they have to score as much to win games. However, the opposite thought is...if the defense is better they get more stops which gives the ball back to the offense. With 2 or 3 more possessions a game what does that do? I know Mahomes is a competitor and wouldn't care if they were up by 20 in the 4th quarter. He would still want to score. Andy on the other hand?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sith13 1,746 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 6 hours ago, dhitter said: I was thinking...if the defense is better, perhaps KC doesn't have to scroe 40-50 points and still wind up on the losing end. Maybe they won't feel like they have to score as much to win games. However, the opposite thought is...if the defense is better they get more stops which gives the ball back to the offense. With 2 or 3 more possessions a game what does that do? I know Mahomes is a competitor and wouldn't care if they were up by 20 in the 4th quarter. He would still want to score. Andy on the other hand?.... Unless we have a terrific defensive depth we'll need offense to take up some time off the clock so the defense can actually catch their breath. We had a flashy offense last year but I wouldn't be surprised if we adopt some drives that are focused on moving the chains without huge chunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balto 723 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 I actually think no one will care or judge Mahomes on his stats this year......will be 100% about a Super Bowl appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mloe68 1,521 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 16 hours ago, xen said: While true, the fact remains Morse can run the outside zone shit Andy likes, but Reiter is physically limited. Doubt he is in the long term plans other than a backup. This makes drafting a center and doing it one day one or two pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mloe68 1,521 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Balto said: I actually think no one will care or judge Mahomes on his stats this year......will be 100% about a Super Bowl appearance. Ultimately when you are this good the stats are going to be there most of the time minus huge injury issues. So if you want to be compared to the elite of the elite which is what we are all talking about here, its all about winning the elite game. Takes a competent defense though to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 5 hours ago, Balto said: I actually think no one will care or judge Mahomes on his stats this year......will be 100% about a Super Bowl appearance. It'll be about the Super Bowl ring, until it's not. Then it will be about 'how great the Chiefs' future is with an MVP at quarterback.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mloe68 1,521 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 46 minutes ago, PhataLerror said: It'll be about the Super Bowl ring, until it's not. Then it will be about 'how great the Chiefs' future is with an MVP at quarterback.' We've had all kinds of journeymen type QBs who won a lot of games in the regular season. It was the calling card of this organization until MVPat showed up and we saw what a high level QB could really do when it matters. And no doubt the level of optimism and expectation is now much higher. Not only does Patrick make players around him better, but he raises the bar for the fan base. It's truly January where the men seperate themselves from the boys which Chiefs fans know all to well because in most of those instances we had the inferior QB. No more! If we are sitting here 13 years into his career with only 1 more playoff win. Nobody will care about the stats. But we all know in the modern AFC that if you get to the title game once, odds are your getting there at least two more times with that QB. We LOVE our chances now whereas most people just hoped we could get lucky before. Time will tell. It's just a lot more fun now days. Thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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