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Interesting Chiefs stats and win projections without Tyreek


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I don't think Tyreke is the difference between 10 wins and 12 wins.  I think Hardman would have much better numbers than that if Hill is a no go.  I'm much more concerned about the RB position than I am the receivers, even without Hill.  

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I think WR concerns me more. I like the prospects better at RB. Especially with the way Andy runs the O. Super concerned that when Hill is suspended and Sammie gets hurt, what we have to trot out there. Thank goodness we have Pat. 

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26 minutes ago, moons314 said:

I don't think Tyreke is the difference between 10 wins and 12 wins.  I think Hardman would have much better numbers than that if Hill is a no go.  I'm much more concerned about the RB position than I am the receivers, even without Hill.  

Gotta disagree with you here. I think Tyreek is the second most valuable player on the roster personally. 

1. Mahomes - MVP

2. Tyreek - U simply can’t single team him

3. Kelce - Dominates those intermediate   

4. Jones - Sack master 

5. Clark - Could develop into D MVP

6. Mathieu - Starts season as D MIP

7. Schwartz - Protects MVP

8. Fisher - See above  Scary behind him

9. Fuller - Only proven corner on roster

10.  D Williams - Was good, has to be 

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3 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I think Tyreek is worth 2 wins so 10-6 might be reasonable

Maybe last year he was worth 2 games. I think this year with Mahomes having his 2nd as a starter and Reid able to game plan with him more we will do fine without Hill if he is gone for the whole year. Hardman needs to learn fast though too

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Its interesting. We lose guys and its no big deal they only did this or that. We can find a guy to get 12 Tds or ETc. So guys go and its see ya. We get guys and its wow what a find. They were in a bad program , poor fit, poor coaching BLah Blah Blah. What a potential steal. Mahomes will throw them open.

I agree average players can be replaced with average players. Players like Hill and Hunt are elite talent. You lose elite talent and there is a drop off. NO question about it unless you replace it with elite talent. Teams are so worried about Hill that even if he is double teamed he opens up space for Kelce , Watkins, Running Backs and others. Hill is amazing at extending plays for Mahomes.  Losing Hill would be a huge loss for Mahomes and co.  Losing Hunt was also a big deal and still is. 

Then there is the Reids offense takes a year or two to learn excuse. Well if thats true why expect a second round draft pick to have a big role or impact? 

Lose Hill and yes I see Mahomes taking more sacks. Lose Hill and this is a different team. Wins are not done on paper as a result of meaningless stats. One or two unseen tiny plays made or not made make a huge difference.

Thrilled with Mahomes. He is not GOD.

 

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I think losing Hill is a big deal but I also think Mahomes will do just fine and keep it rolling like we did offensively without Hunt. I hate comparing but the fact is Brady has done so much without talent around him at times. He had made people better with the scheme they use for him. Mahomes and Reid I think really step it up this year. I am not saying stat wise but the ability to keep it rolling and knowing what Reid has learned to do with Mahomes. This and to think we lose 2 games because of Hill being out? I say we win 2 games more then because or defense will be much more improved. So it makes it a wash....

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In 2016, Tyreek's rookie year, Reid coaxed a 12-4 record out of starters Alex Smith, Spencer Ware, a rapidly declining and hurt Jeremy Maclin (had @ half the catches from 2015), Chris Conley, and Kelce.  

Yes the defense was better in 2016 but it was starting to drop in points allowed.

I certainly like our current group of skill players over that group.  

Reid will scheme up offense guaranteed.  This season is about how rapidly the defense gets it together.

On paper I love what Veach has done on D.  Frankly our defensive woes were not so much tied to the corners (top 15 against outside passing) as it was getting killed over the middle and with TEs and RBs.  I call Breeland and Nelson a wash btw; very similiar grades in Breeland's last full year in 2017 vs 2018 Nelson.

But can anybody look at this group, especially with adding Darron Lee (top 4 PFF coverage LB grade in 2018 and your new sub package LB, which is a starter) and the safety improvements and think we won't be better in coverage there?  

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1 hour ago, kkuenn said:

I think losing Hill is a big deal but I also think Mahomes will do just fine and keep it rolling like we did offensively without Hunt. I hate comparing but the fact is Brady has done so much without talent around him at times. He had made people better with the scheme they use for him. Mahomes and Reid I think really step it up this year. I am not saying stat wise but the ability to keep it rolling and knowing what Reid has learned to do with Mahomes. This and to think we lose 2 games because of Hill being out? I say we win 2 games more then because or defense will be much more improved. So it makes it a wash....

Exactly. How many teams have won Super Bowls with average defenses and a great franchise QB?  Maybe half of them? I like our chances this year better than before last season began, simply because of balance.  I would rather have balance and depth than Tyreek Hill.

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17 hours ago, Fmbl2187 said:

I disagree.

What does mean in practical terms? There’s a ton there to agree or disagree with. Personally I think all things being equal he did pretty well here using mainly analytics. 

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12 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

What does mean in practical terms? There’s a ton there to agree or disagree with. Personally I think all things being equal he did pretty well here using mainly analytics. 

That was a joke.  How can you "disagree" with a huge table?  I should have put a smiley emoji after it.  It was a bit sarcastic, because disagreeing is the obligation of anyone posting on a forum. 😬

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