Interesting Chiefs stats and win projections without Tyreek

[Mloe68 1,521]

1 hour ago, xen said:

In 2016, Tyreek's rookie year, Reid coaxed a 12-4 record out of starters Alex Smith, Spencer Ware, a rapidly declining and hurt Jeremy Maclin (had @ half the catches from 2015), Chris Conley, and Kelce.  

Yes the defense was better in 2016 but it was starting to drop in points allowed.

I certainly like our current group of skill players over that group.  

Reid will scheme up offense guaranteed.  This season is about how rapidly the defense gets it together.

On paper I love what Veach has done on D.  Frankly our defensive woes were not so much tied to the corners (top 15 against outside passing) as it was getting killed over the middle and with TEs and RBs.  I call Breeland and Nelson a wash btw; very similiar grades in Breeland's last full year in 2017 vs 2018 Nelson.

But can anybody look at this group, especially with adding Darron Lee (top 4 PFF coverage LB grade in 2018 and your new sub package LB, which is a starter) and the safety improvements and think we won't be better in coverage there?  

Good points. Bottom line is Andy Reid knows how to beat this division and until proven otherwise or we suffer a massive slew of injuries why predict that to change. Whether it’s 9 or 13 wins if we can win AFC West, we’ve got a real chance to get to Miami with this QB and what should be a rapidly improving defense. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

33 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

That was a joke.  How can you "disagree" with a huge table?  I should have put a smiley emoji after it.  It was a bit sarcastic, because disagreeing is the obligation of anyone posting on a forum. 😬

Great stuff! 

[SEMO 6,812]

Just now, Mloe68 said:

Great stuff! 

Don’t encourage him.

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

25 minutes ago, SEMO said:

Don’t encourage him.

Don't listen to SEMO. Encourage me.

[DieHard 2,061]

For fun I looked at our career experience at WR when Hill is suspended and Sammie is injured.

The most experienced guy is Robinson with 22 catches for 288 and 4 TDs.

#2 is Dieter with 1 catch for 22 and no TDs.

#3 is Kemp with 1 catch for 7 yards and no TDs. 

I don’t think anyone else has ever caught a pass in the NFL unless I missed one. I think Pringle caught a cold in December, but that is as close as we got.

Feeling pretty good about CB now.

[Mloe68 1,521]

3 hours ago, DieHard said:

For fun I looked at our career experience at WR when Hill is suspended and Sammie is injured.

The most experienced guy is Robinson with 22 catches for 288 and 4 TDs.

#2 is Dieter with 1 catch for 22 and no TDs.

#3 is Kemp with 1 catch for 7 yards and no TDs. 

I don’t think anyone else has ever caught a pass in the NFL unless I missed one. I think Pringle caught a cold in December, but that is as close as we got.

Feeling pretty good about CB now.

Very valid especially when you also consider lack of depth at TE too.  We know based on last year if you play with an elite QB, you are going to have a career year if healthy. But the ceiling on some of these unknowns could be very small.  Agree we need another legit option at WR or TE added to the mix.  If Tyreek can play most of the season. Great. But Veach has to act like that may not happen. Makes Kyle Rudolph viable. 

[Docbarnabee 225]

If we have the 28th ranked Defense this year, (barring a lot of injuries),  I will eat my underwear.   

Not sure how they are calculating their statistics, but the numbers seem to be a little conservative both on Offense and Defense.   I think we are much better on both ends.  This should be a much better team Defensively and a more balanced one offensively.

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

1 minute ago, Docbarnabee said:

If we have the 28th ranked Defense this year, (barring a lot of injuries),  I will eat my underwear.   

 

Always best to wash it first.

[Handswarmer 645]

LOL- I like how they think Watkins only misses 1 game this year....🤣

[sith13 1,746]

With a full season under his belt Pat ends up throwing similar interceptions and gets sacked even more. I would call for Veach's head at this scenario. Also Watkins playing 15 games is laughable. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

56 minutes ago, sith13 said:

With a full season under his belt Pat ends up throwing similar interceptions and gets sacked even more. I would call for Veach's head at this scenario. Also Watkins playing 15 games is laughable. 

Odd you would think Veach would be to blame if we lose Tyreek and hence the offensive production would regress? As for Watkins. He's played in 15 games in two of his five seasons, so we've got a 40 percent chance that happens. If it does happen and Tyreek isn't here or is suspended for any length of time, I'd bet the farm on a 1,200 yards 14 TD type season from him. And we would need it!  So much really depends on what happens with Tyreek. If we get him back, Watkins healthy, Hardman running against single coverage 3rd and 4th corners and LDT back to solidify guard position, this offense could actually improve off a historic season. So much in limbo right now though. 

[sith13 1,746]

14 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

Odd you would think Veach would be to blame if we lose Tyreek and hence the offensive production would regress? As for Watkins. He's played in 15 games in two of his five seasons, so we've got a 40 percent chance that happens. If it does happen and Tyreek isn't here or is suspended for any length of time, I'd bet the farm on a 1,200 yards 14 TD type season from him. And we would need it!  So much really depends on what happens with Tyreek. If we get him back, Watkins healthy, Hardman running against single coverage 3rd and 4th corners and LDT back to solidify guard position, this offense could actually improve off a historic season. So much in limbo right now though. 

With one of them coming in his rookie season and the other one in a contract year I don't really consider the 40% to be realistic odds. If healthy he has the talent to get to decent figures but I don't really expect him to really play through all those minor pains he seems to be having all the time as we have seen last year.

I think the entire key is is whether Hill comes back or not, other than that this OL needs to hold up regardless as protecting Mahomes is paramount. We definitely don't need a Luck-type situation at our hands with our franchise QB.

[robgar 1,046]

15-1 ..

tyreek plays, hardman plays, and sammie plays...

 

we make defenses figure out how to stop three sub 4.4 guys.. and a quarteback with a rocket launcher for an arm... how you arrange coverage for that with kelce running around?

[kkuenn 3,613]

5 hours ago, sith13 said:

With one of them coming in his rookie season and the other one in a contract year I don't really consider the 40% to be realistic odds. If healthy he has the talent to get to decent figures but I don't really expect him to really play through all those minor pains he seems to be having all the time as we have seen last year.

I think the entire key is is whether Hill comes back or not, other than that this OL needs to hold up regardless as protecting Mahomes is paramount. We definitely don't need a Luck-type situation at our hands with our franchise QB.

Well this is his contract year imo. He has a 21 million cap next year with 7 of it guaranteed. He will be cut if he only plays a few games. This will allow another year of development too for our guys going into next year and will give us 14 million more to our already believe cap space. 

[sith13 1,746]

18 minutes ago, kkuenn said:

Well this is his contract year imo. He has a 21 million cap next year with 7 of it guaranteed. He will be cut if he only plays a few games. This will allow another year of development too for our guys going into next year and will give us 14 million more to our already believe cap space. 

Hopefully he remembers that this is a make or break season for him in KC. Not sure if he cares as long as some other GM is willing to pay him but missing so much time with injuries should hurt his stock at some point so we could see a whole new Fordy-type approach. 

[Handswarmer 645]

21 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

Odd you would think Veach would be to blame if we lose Tyreek and hence the offensive production would regress? As for Watkins. He's played in 15 games in two of his five seasons, so we've got a 40 percent chance that happens. If it does happen and Tyreek isn't here or is suspended for any length of time, I'd bet the farm on a 1,200 yards 14 TD type season from him. And we would need it!  So much really depends on what happens with Tyreek. If we get him back, Watkins healthy, Hardman running against single coverage 3rd and 4th corners and LDT back to solidify guard position, this offense could actually improve off a historic season. So much in limbo right now though. 

I would go with the 60% chance he does NOT play 15 games. I am with Sith on this one.

And without Hill, Watkins gets coverages rolled towards him and Kelce. Until Hardman proves himself, its pretty simple- stop Watkins and Kelce.

Just go back and look last year whenever Pat needed a play from WR- left handed throw to Hill for a 4th down conversion, 4th and 9 vs the ravens- it was Hill.

[Mloe68 1,521]

7 hours ago, sith13 said:

With one of them coming in his rookie season and the other one in a contract year I don't really consider the 40% to be realistic odds. If healthy he has the talent to get to decent figures but I don't really expect him to really play through all those minor pains he seems to be having all the time as we have seen last year.

I think the entire key is is whether Hill comes back or not, other than that this OL needs to hold up regardless as protecting Mahomes is paramount. We definitely don't need a Luck-type situation at our hands with our franchise QB.

He’s not missing games with minor pains but rather a serious foot injury.  Those derail any player and will always be concerning because they are hard to heal. He’s got elite talent to produce huge numbers with this QB.  Again we need it. Fortunately his contract was set up by Veach to let us out if he can’t stay healthy. And keep in mind the former 4th overall pick is only 25 years old and has 28 TDs.  

We were clearly better when he was healthy last year. This year that may not be a luxury but rather a necessity.  

[Mloe68 1,521]

2 hours ago, Handswarmer said:

I would go with the 60% chance he does NOT play 15 games. I am with Sith on this one.

And without Hill, Watkins gets coverages rolled towards him and Kelce. Until Hardman proves himself, its pretty simple- stop Watkins and Kelce.

Just go back and look last year whenever Pat needed a play from WR- left handed throw to Hill for a 4th down conversion, 4th and 9 vs the ravens- it was Hill.

I’m not worried about our offense as long as we have two of our big three on the field.  Having all three puts us in a league by ourselves. 

Again we played the games you mentioned without Watkins and still got it done. 

 But you notice who our best WR was in January or who we went to to get back into Patriots game. Watkins.

Just my opinion but if he can stay healthy I think you will see a monster season from him. If he doesn’t stay healthy and Tyreek can’t play, it’s going to matter much more than anyone realizes.  And the law of averages is concerning here. Massive upside but also very realistic regression is possible depending on how this all plays out. 

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

14 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

He’s not missing games with minor pains but rather a serious foot injury.  Those derail any player and will always be concerning because they are hard to heal. He’s got elite talent to produce huge numbers with this QB.  Again we need it. Fortunately his contract was set up by Veach to let us out if he can’t stay healthy. And keep in mind the former 4th overall pick is only 25 years old and has 28 TDs.  

We were clearly better when he was healthy last year. This year that may not be a luxury but rather a necessity.  

You make too much sense.  What the hell are you doing around here? 

[sith13 1,746]

12 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

He’s not missing games with minor pains but rather a serious foot injury.  Those derail any player and will always be concerning because they are hard to heal. He’s got elite talent to produce huge numbers with this QB.  Again we need it. Fortunately his contract was set up by Veach to let us out if he can’t stay healthy. And keep in mind the former 4th overall pick is only 25 years old and has 28 TDs.  

We were clearly better when he was healthy last year. This year that may not be a luxury but rather a necessity.  

If healthy Watkins is an important asset. Even Hill was much better with him around. I'm just not ready to put my eggs in that basket and hope for the best though. Even in his career he has been successful with other solid WRs around some of which were much better than him (latest one being Hill). 

He was out for like 5-6 weeks with an undisclosed foot injury. A bruise wouldn't last that long and anything broken wouldn't heal either. I would feel much better if we had some real info about his injury, so far it's nothing different than Berry IMO and Reid mentioned the pain with those "tricky foot injuries".

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

2 minutes ago, sith13 said:

If healthy Watkins is an important asset. Even Hill was much better with him around. I'm just not ready to put my eggs in that basket and hope for the best though. Even in his career he has been successful with other solid WRs around some of which were much better than him (latest one being Hill). 

He was out for like 5-6 weeks with an undisclosed foot injury. A bruise wouldn't last that long and anything broken wouldn't heal either. I would feel much better if we had some real info about his injury, so far it's nothing different than Berry IMO and Reid mentioned the pain with those "tricky foot injuries".

And who ever heard of a wide receiver with 4.4 speed needing his feet to work without hurting?  Obviously, he is malingering.

[Mloe68 1,521]

5 minutes ago, sith13 said:

If healthy Watkins is an important asset. Even Hill was much better with him around. I'm just not ready to put my eggs in that basket and hope for the best though. Even in his career he has been successful with other solid WRs around some of which were much better than him (latest one being Hill). 

He was out for like 5-6 weeks with an undisclosed foot injury. A bruise wouldn't last that long and anything broken wouldn't heal either. I would feel much better if we had some real info about his injury, so far it's nothing different than Berry IMO and Reid mentioned the pain with those "tricky foot injuries".

Foot injuries are tricky and can ruin careers. Watkins came back and had 10 catches for 176 yards in the playoffs and not 100 percent.  My point is I believe he can be an elite in this offense with this QB.  The only question to me is can he stay healthy. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

10 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

You make too much sense.  What the hell are you doing around here? 

Or maybe you’ve just had something more than coffee for breakfast. Hope you’re right though. 

[sith13 1,746]

6 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

And who ever heard of a wide receiver with 4.4 speed needing his feet to work without hurting?  Obviously, he is malingering.

Not saying he's. Just saying he has been through too many injuries to be reliable. Just like Berry at this point, hopefully not as far gone since we need Watkins for at least one more season.

[sith13 1,746]

3 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Foot injuries are tricky and can ruin careers. Watkins came back and had 10 catches for 176 yards in the playoffs and not 100 percent.  My point is I believe he can be an elite in this offense with this QB.  The only question to me is can he stay healthy. 

I have the same question, can he stay healthy. If healthy he has many tools to be successful but his career is turning into Berry, great talent that can't stay healthy. Hopefully he'll bounce back this year and have the breakout we were expecting.