Is D Williams actually highly underrated?

[Mloe68 1,521]

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https://theathletic.com/1057375/2019/07/01/hes-not-household-name-but-chiefs-rb-damien-williams-is-highly-underrated/?source=dailyemail

By Seth Keysor Jul 1, 2019 13

Death, taxes and head coach Andy Reid’s running backs producing. Those are the three things that can absolutely be relied on in this world.

No matter who is plugged into the Chiefs coach’s system, that running back has posted good numbers. Chiefs fans have seen superstars like Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt do well, but they’ve also watched unheralded players like Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West produce in Reid’s system as well. Before that, the football world watched Eagles running backs dominate fantasy football for years, from LeSean McCoy to Brian Westbrook to even Duce Staley.

Reid’s ability to help running backs produce has been true regardless of the player, to the point that even when the Chiefs lost Hunt midway through 2018, what should have been a devastating blow barely registered on the stats sheet.

 

EPA is “expected points added,” a metric designed to estimate how much a play increases a team’s chances of scoring. It takes into account that some yards are worth more than others (for example, gaining 10 yards on 1st and 10 is more meaningful than 3rd and 15). It’s a solid measure of team production and efficiency.

As noted in the tweet(s), in a small sample size without Hunt, the Chiefs were just as efficient in adding to their expected points when their running backs got the ball. This aligns with the theory that any running back with the right skill set can succeed in Reid’s offense.

Despite that evidence, people are somehow still underestimating what Damien Williams could do for the Chiefs this season.

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Williams was signed by the Chiefs last March on a 1-year contract. He didn’t see the field much playing behind Hunt and Ware until Hunt was cut a few days prior to the Chiefs’ Week 13 matchup against the Raiders. Williams played barely a quarter of the snaps that day, but was able to seize the primary role in the offense moving forward. The Chiefs liked what he did enough to hand him a two-year contract extension this offseason.

From there, Williams’ role expanded in the playoffs; in the two games, he ran the ball 35 times and was targeted 14 times. He has entered this offseason as the presumed starter for Kansas City, a new experience for him in the NFL.

 

People continue to question whether Williams will be able to be the primary running back duties in Reid’s system, which is puzzling given everything the Chiefs have done with him to this point. Williams seems to have the perfect skill set to flourish as a receiver in Reid’s pass-happy attack, something that seems to be reflected in how Kansas City used him once they began game-planning with him included.

 

If the Oakland games are taken out of the equation — in one game, he didn’t play much, and the other was over well before halftime and involved very vanilla play-calling — Williams’ target numbers were quite high. When extrapolating over a full season, 6.4 targets per game comes out to more than 102 targets.

While that may seem extraordinarily high, Jamaal Charles had 104 targets in 2013, his first year in Reid’s system. Those numbers dropped significantly in 2014 — the “let’s make Knile Davis happen” era — but it’s worth noting that Westbrook, the running back whose receiving skills best compares to Williams’, had multiple seasons with 100-plus targets.

Reid’s system creates a great deal of yardage in the screen game by fooling defenses on what direction a play is going.

The Chiefs execute a double-fake here, first utilizing play-action to Williams and then faking a handoff to receiver Tyreek Hill going the other direction. Because of the blocking design and previous calls by Reid, the Chargers are fooled by the fake to Hill and end up with every defender going the wrong direction.

Williams’ speed allows him to take advantage of the easy yards offered on this play. He accelerates quickly and generally picks up extra yardage by outrunning angles. This shows up in the run game as well.

This gain isn’t as long for most running backs, as they would be chased out of bounds or forced to cut back toward the teeth of the defense. Williams is able to beat a secondary defender to the edge instead and adds more than a dozen yards to the play.

Williams’ speed also gives opportunities in the red zone, as he can outrun defenders to the sideline on routes designed as pick plays.

This is a design Reid has used before, but with Williams it was particularly effective. The receivers and tight end on the right side of the line run routes that are essentially picks to draw defenders away and slow down any pursuit from the middle. The play-action sucks other defenders toward the line of scrimmage. Williams transitions from the play-action to a sprint to the flat, and he’s too fast for the defense to catch up. The result is an easy touchdown.

Williams also has soft hands as a receiver and can adjust to the ball in the air.

While this play went for only four yards, it would have been less had Williams not been able to get turned around and adjust to a poorly thrown ball. He snatches it out of the air and turns quickly to try and advance up the field.

Williams has shown at previous stops in his career the ability to run exceptional routes, even when lined up outside. The Chiefs didn’t utilize this ability much last season, but it’s something to watch out for in 2019 as Reid will be planning his offense around Williams’ skill set. His ability to line up as a receiver will stress defensive coverages, force teams to show their hand and help create mismatches.

In the run game, Williams’ explosion allows him to exploit the opportunities created by Reid’s creative run-blocking schemes.

On this play, Reid allows a pair of defenders on the left side to go unblocked initially. He accounts for them by having the tight end come across from right to left and wall off the edge defender, then uses a fake reverse to freeze the other unblocked defender. In the meantime, left tackle Eric Fisher is free to go straight for linebacker Darius Leonard, the primary threat to this run. Williams bursts through the hole, follows his blocking effectively and uses his speed to create a big gain.

Williams seems to have the vision requisite to take advantage of blocking, even when a hole isn’t immediately apparent.

The way this play develops, Williams doesn’t have anywhere to go at first. However, he alters his speed to allow a hole to develop in front of him, a crucial trait if a running back wants to consistently do more than slam into the back of offensive linemen. He runs “skinny” through a small hole and picks up a nice gain.

Williams also flashed ability as a one-cut runner who can identify when lanes open up to cut back.

This run requires Williams to read the defense once he gets the ball and determine whether the left side of the line has sealed the edge and he should get to the sideline, or the defense has over-pursued and he should cut back. The hole he should take looks obvious to us, but it’s many runners even at the NFL level don’t recognize cutback lanes even when they’re huge. Williams is adept at seeing and exploiting those opportunities.

Williams does have some limitations as a player. He’s not as talented as Hunt or Ware at creating yards after contact, and isn’t strong enough to always fall forward after a hit.

One of the best traits of recent Chiefs running backs has been the ability to gain yards after contact. Here, Williams demonstrates that while he’s willing to lower his shoulder, he doesn’t have that same natural strength and balance through contact that Hunt did. It results in failing to obtain a first down on this play, despite being matched up against a single secondary defender.

Because he’s not as capable of gaining yards after contact, Williams will be more dependent on his blocking than Hunt, and will be stopped for short gains more often. Williams also will occasionally try to get too cute with his running and lose yardage attempting to run around defenses rather than taking what is in front of him.

This play should result in a gain of 7 or 8 yards. Instead, Williams runs backward after making the catch in an attempt to elude the incoming tacklers. He should accept that he’s corralled and fall forward for a couple of yards. Williams does this a few times a game, and it’s a habit he’ll need to curtail to maximize his efficiency.

Williams is not as talented a pure runner as his RB predecessors in Kansas City. But he does have enough speed and vision to get the job done. More importantly, he may be the best pure scheme fit in Reid’s passing attack Chiefs fans have seen yet, given his crisp routes and soft hands. With an offseason to plan around Williams as the primary starter, Reid should feed him the ball as a receiver early and often from all over the field. If he’s healthy, a big year shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. In fact, based on history, it’ll be more of the same for a Reid-coached running back.

(Photo: Mark Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports)

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Seth Keysor is The Athletic's resident Kansas City Chiefs film analyst. He previously covered the Chiefs at SB Nation for more than seven years. Seth is also an attorney and pastor in Minnesota. Follow Seth on Twitter @RealMNchiefsfan.

[xen 1,010,220]

not a subscriber brah.

[kkuenn 3,597]

44 minutes ago, xen said:

not a subscriber brah.

Yeah and trying it for free sucks too.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

I subscribed for a bit but I felt like I wasnt getting any inside info I couldnt find on twitter.

[jetlord 10,209]

Got a subscription as a gift a while back.  Not much new stuff, but I do like most of the articles about the Chiefs, Royals, and local teams. 

[Chiefswinitall 60]

THEY AREN'T MAKING ARTICLES EASY TO COPY AND READ ANYMORE  A     R   E   TH     EY.😉😉

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

I really like d. Williams, but I don’t expect him to be able to play 16 games plus playoffs, he isn’t that back. That was the beauty of kareem hunt, he was built to take a pounding all season and thus leaving a back like d williams as a fresh backup if needed.

i am not a huge carlos hyde fan so i would be on the lookout for another rb at the trade deadline this season.

hopefully our rookie rb is a baller and maybe a back like leshaun mccoy gets cut or duke williams becomes available 

[Mloe68 1,521]

2 hours ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

I really like d. Williams, but I don’t expect him to be able to play 16 games plus playoffs, he isn’t that back. That was the beauty of kareem hunt, he was built to take a pounding all season and thus leaving a back like d williams as a fresh backup if needed.

i am not a huge carlos hyde fan so i would be on the lookout for another rb at the trade deadline this season.

hopefully our rookie rb is a baller and maybe a back like leshaun mccoy gets cut or duke williams becomes available 

I agree and believe Andy will make this more of a committee approach to protect his explosiveness and short yardage liabilities.  One benefit of him not playing much the first half of last year was that he was fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. We will need that. 

[xen 1,010,220]

Darwin is going to surprise a lot of you.  Contact balance and explosion are primary traits for him.  It may take him a while to get down the offense but watch out.  He's coming for Damien's job eventually.

[kkuenn 3,597]

5 minutes ago, xen said:

Darwin is going to surprise a lot of you.  Contact balance and explosion are primary traits for him.  It may take him a while to get down the offense but watch out.  He's coming for Damien's job eventually.

Well he will be fresh too. As long as he can pass protect. I believe that was Hunt's problem the first year where they would bring in someone else for an obvious pass play. Then again, it is Mahomes now too in there.

[xen 1,010,220]

1 minute ago, kkuenn said:

Well he will be fresh too. As long as he can pass protect. I believe that was Hunt's problem the first year where they would bring in someone else for an obvious pass play. Then again, it is Mahomes now too in there.

Absolutely.  It will all come down to pass protection.  

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

Side note just saw an article where Darren Sproles has decided to play this season, i would be fine with bringing him in to be the third back for a season

[sith13 1,746]

There's not enough sample size to consider him underrated. The term refers to people who has done a lot without getting enough recognition, which doesn't fit with Williams. He might be considered a sleeper at this point but that's pretty much it. 

[FANATIC 852]

He is not underrated. Cali-Chief is correct. In the Chiefs offense " decent backs are a dime a dozen". Decent is not replacing Hunt. Its good enough to put up decent numbers.

[kkuenn 3,597]

12 minutes ago, FANATIC said:

He is not underrated. Cali-Chief is correct. In the Chiefs offense " decent backs are a dime a dozen". Decent is not replacing Hunt. Its good enough to put up decent numbers.

Well the numbers William's put up over 6 games was great, not decent but great. YPC, rushing yards TDs etc were some of the best for those 6 games.

[FANATIC 852]

1 hour ago, kkuenn said:

Well the numbers William's put up over 6 games was great, not decent but great. YPC, rushing yards TDs etc were some of the best for those 6 games.

Yes. Great numbers. 

See West & Ware #s. My take is the defense plays Pass First & concedes the run against KC. In todays nfl a guy off the street can play & start in the Superbowl. See Pats last year. Williams career speaks louder than his starts on this HYBRID OFFENSE.  Average guy playing on the ultimate offense.

[kkuenn 3,597]

15 minutes ago, FANATIC said:

Yes. Great numbers. 

See West & Ware #s. My take is the defense plays Pass First & concedes the run against KC. In todays nfl a guy off the street can play & start in the Superbowl. See Pats last year. Williams career speaks louder than his starts on this HYBRID OFFENSE.  Average guy playing on the ultimate offense.

Still, even with Hunt he was putting up the numbers we saw Williams do. Hunt is better yes, but if you get the same production out of a guy off the street.....then why waste the cap space? Plug and play, dime a dozen etc. If it works then we will be just fine. Hoping Thompson becomes the next good to great RB with his strength and ability he may be the diamond in the rough. Give him half the season to adjust and he may be the guy pushing for starting time and ultimately take it.

[FANATIC 852]

14 minutes ago, kkuenn said:

Still, even with Hunt he was putting up the numbers we saw Williams do. Hunt is better yes, but if you get the same production out of a guy off the street.....then why waste the cap space? Plug and play, dime a dozen etc. If it works then we will be just fine. Hoping Thompson becomes the next good to great RB with his strength and ability he may be the diamond in the rough. Give him half the season to adjust and he may be the guy pushing for starting time and ultimately take it.

Agree. The question was..... is he underrated? I say no. 

[kkuenn 3,597]

Here, what is it you want to see?

26 receptions 378 yards 7 TDs.  824 yards rushing with 4.6 ypc and 7 TDs

or

23 receptions with 160 yards  and 2 TDs. 256 yards rushing with 5.1 ypc and 4 tds.

Easy right? Thing is the top one of Hunt was done in 11 games as a starter.

Williams did his the last 4 games of the year as Ware was there and injured in our first game against Oakland. The last 4 games for Williams only. 11 played for Hunt, 4 for Williams

40 yards receiving for Williams per game. IF you go out to 11 games like Hunt then he projects to 440 yards and 5.5 tds (rounded up 6) for 11 game total. His rushing yards would work out to 704 yards, but he did get a lot less carries as noted in his ypc at 5.1. He would also have 11 TDs

Stat line then is  440 yards receiving, 6 tds.    704 yards rushing and 11 tds. Much better than what Hunt did for his projections and the guy signed a much cheaper contract extension for a 2 year 5.1 million with 2020 being his last year and only a 530k dead cap space if he were cut as he is due to make 2.8 mil that year. Not to bad to develop others behind him imo.

 

For the playoffs Williams did add another 159 yards rushing for 5.1 ypc and 2 TDs along with 91 yards receiving and 2 tds for 9.1 yards per reception.

 

I am sure Hunt will cost a team more than that even with his recent troubles.  Again, getting production even though we are not spending on the spot.

 

[kkuenn 3,597]

5 minutes ago, FANATIC said:

Agree. The question was..... is he underrated? I say no. 

Agreed, i was using numbers to back it up is all.

[Mloe68 1,521]

1 hour ago, FANATIC said:

Yes. Great numbers. 

See West & Ware #s. My take is the defense plays Pass First & concedes the run against KC. In todays nfl a guy off the street can play & start in the Superbowl. See Pats last year. Williams career speaks louder than his starts on this HYBRID OFFENSE.  Average guy playing on the ultimate offense.

Andy’s offense has evolved over the years as one of the most innovative coaches in the game but he’s always good at knowing how to play to his QB and RBs strengths. Point would be Williams fits the skill set he wants.  He’s not as complete as Hunt but he’s just as good at certain things. Andy’s ability to use his other RBs to cover where he’s not is crucial.  I’d certainly rather have Hunt now, but come contract time I’d find another guy and move on.  

[Mloe68 1,521]

30 minutes ago, kkuenn said:

Here, what is it you want to see?

26 receptions 378 yards 7 TDs.  824 yards rushing with 4.6 ypc and 7 TDs

or

23 receptions with 160 yards  and 2 TDs. 256 yards rushing with 5.1 ypc and 4 tds.

Easy right? Thing is the top one of Hunt was done in 11 games as a starter.

Williams did his the last 4 games of the year as Ware was there and injured in our first game against Oakland. The last 4 games for Williams only. 11 played for Hunt, 4 for Williams

40 yards receiving for Williams per game. IF you go out to 11 games like Hunt then he projects to 440 yards and 5.5 tds (rounded up 6) for 11 game total. His rushing yards would work out to 704 yards, but he did get a lot less carries as noted in his ypc at 5.1. He would also have 11 TDs

Stat line then is  440 yards receiving, 6 tds.    704 yards rushing and 11 tds. Much better than what Hunt did for his projections and the guy signed a much cheaper contract extension for a 2 year 5.1 million with 2020 being his last year and only a 530k dead cap space if he were cut as he is due to make 2.8 mil that year. Not to bad to develop others behind him imo.

 

For the playoffs Williams did add another 159 yards rushing for 5.1 ypc and 2 TDs along with 91 yards receiving and 2 tds for 9.1 yards per reception.

 

I am sure Hunt will cost a team more than that even with his recent troubles.  Again, getting production even though we are not spending on the spot.

 

Also important to note he was still a backup role player and not the primary guy in the Ravens game.  Comparable stats better served in his five starts.  

[kkuenn 3,597]

31 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Also important to note he was still a backup role player and not the primary guy in the Ravens game.  Comparable stats better served in his five starts.  

Well if you take the last 4 starts he started in and then actually the 2 playoff games......you can see in those 6 starts his 10 TDs etc. He was on his way to project nicely for a 16 game season for sure and against stiff competition other than the Raiders of course.

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

Ranking our recent backs i think hunt and williams are similar in skill with hunt being more durable. Then ware ranks 3rd and west a DISTANT last

[DieHard 2,061]

I think he is under rated. For some reason I see him play and think scat back. It was only recently that I understood that he is bigger than Hunt. That said, he is not Hunt. But he is definitely under rated because he is a top 15 back under Ried and talked about like a weakness.

Back to Xen’s comment about Darwin. That guy has the balance that we saw in Kareem. He will be very interesting to watch. I agree with you guys that it boils down to having s complete game, running and catching ain’t enough. You have to be able to block.