Mahomes practices today, not ruled out for Sunday

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

7 minutes ago, DefensiveMan said:

Take advantage of that Raucous Arrowhead crowd. We need to quit wasting it - it's an intense environment and all the players need to do is match the fans intensity.  

This sounds funny, but it seems like they try to hard not to make mistakes at home. However, when on the road they just go out and execute.

I think including playoff games the Chiefs are like 2-3 in their last 5 home games.

[DefensiveMan 758]

9 minutes ago, Chiefsfan1963 said:

This sounds funny, but it seems like they try to hard not to make mistakes at home. However, when on the road they just go out and execute.

I think including playoff games the Chiefs are like 2-3 in their last 5 home games.

Yeah, previewing this game Chiefs are 3-4 in their last 7 at home. I don't understand why the Chiefs come out so timid at Arrowhead. This needs to end. No SB team ever lost 3 straight games at home especially prime time games! 

[Mloe68 1,521]

 

 

BJ Kissel

@ChiefsReporter

· 37m

“@PatrickMahomes looks like Patrick Mahomes.” - #Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy on Mahomes’ practices so far this week.

[Mloe68 1,521]

12 minutes ago, DefensiveMan said:

Yeah, previewing this game Chiefs are 3-4 in their last 7 at home. I don't understand why the Chiefs come out so timid at Arrowhead. This needs to end. No SB team ever lost 3 straight games at home especially prime time games! 

Is that a real fact?

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

This year, 1-2 (Balt W, Indy L, Houston L).

Last four games last year, 2-2 (NE L, Indy W, Oak W, SD L).

[Adamixoye 604]

4 hours ago, Chiefsfan1963 said:

And this same system has NE as #1. Things are skewed based on how one wants to look at things.

It basically ignores the teams schedule/who they are playing. If KC played the same schedule that NE has I'm sure their DVOA score would be much better. As of 10/22 KC has had the 14th toughest schedule, GB has had the 18th. Which reflects in their DVOA.

NE and SF who hold the #1 and #2 spot in the DVOA standings but sit at #32 and #22 in SoS. Easier schedule better numbers, doesn't mean better squad.

Even this week will not clear it up. If KC's 3rd string QB doesn't look good against GB will that be because GB is good or because Moore is a 3rd stringer?

Sad thing is, the talking heads will go on and on about NE D but in the same breath talk about KC D playing a bad Denver O.

This isn't true, DVOA is opponent-adjusted.  It gets more reliable as the season goes on with more data, but it is absolutely opponent-adjusted and not just a raw statistical ranking.

[Mloe68 1,521]

4 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

This isn't true, DVOA is opponent-adjusted.  It gets more reliable as the season goes on with more data, but it is absolutely opponent-adjusted and not just a raw statistical ranking.

All analytics have to be taken with some grain of salt, but ignoring analytics is plain stupid. And DVOA has proven itself a very consistent indicator of who is legitimate and who isn't. When you are as dominant as the Patriots defense has been, there's simply isn't any statisical way of looking at it even with SOS incorporated where they won't be ranked extremely high. But as you said the more data (more games) gives better data points. 

[xen 1,010,220]

From today's practice

 

[Adamixoye 604]

7 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

All analytics have to be taken with some grain of salt, but ignoring analytics is plain stupid. And DVOA has proven itself a very consistent indicator of who is legitimate and who isn't. When you are as dominant as the Patriots defense has been, there's simply isn't any statisical way of looking at it even with SOS incorporated where they won't be ranked extremely high. But as you said the more data (more games) gives better data points. 

I'm not too surprised that we're middle of the pack in defensive DVOA.  Just by holistic measures, let's look game-by-game:

• JAX:  held them to 13 points until the game was out of hand, and the one TD was really a fantastic catch by the WR that was well-covered by us.  Two garbage time TDs for a total of 26 points.
• OAK:  held them to 10 points, all early, then absolutely shut them down.
• BAL:  only allowed the opening drive TD in the first half, allowed us to build a 2+ score lead, then played soft and let them back in, total of 28 points.  Against an offense that has been running over some teams.
• DET:  our worst performance, IMO.  30 points, could have been a lot worse if not for the fumbles, did score the defensive TD.
• IND:  awful against the rush, but held them to FGs instead of TDs.  Kept the game with a score for most of it even as the offense looked its worst in the Mahomes' era.
• HOU:  similar to the IND game, but worse.  31 points, but one HOU TD was gifted by the fumble at the end of the 1st half.
• DEN:  total domination even if against a bad offense, could have been a shutout if not for TWO drive extending 3rd down penalties on the first drive.

Dare I say, that's not a terrible defense, rather, that's an average defense experiencing severe ups and downs.  If at least some of the ups-and-downs are due to new players and a new scheme, there is a path to this defense being more consistent and pretty average at worst by the end of the year.

Optimistic?  Maybe.  But plausible.

[Chiefmanzada 466]

1 hour ago, xen said:

From today's practice

 

yea

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

2 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

All analytics have to be taken with some grain of salt, but ignoring analytics is plain stupid. And DVOA has proven itself a very consistent indicator of who is legitimate and who isn't. When you are as dominant as the Patriots defense has been, there's simply isn't any statisical way of looking at it even with SOS incorporated where they won't be ranked extremely high. But as you said the more data (more games) gives better data points. 

Wasn't analytics what Harbaugh used to determine what to do in KC/Baltimore game? Wasn't it also the tool that predicted KC would beat Indy and Houston as well as a close game, with Chiefs winning against Denver?

I'm not scoffing at it, but there is something about seeing with your own two eyes vs reading shit off a spreadsheet. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

22 minutes ago, Chiefsfan1963 said:

Wasn't analytics what Harbaugh used to determine what to do in KC/Baltimore game? Wasn't it also the tool that predicted KC would beat Indy and Houston as well as a close game, with Chiefs winning against Denver?

I'm not scoffing at it, but there is something about seeing with your own two eyes vs reading shit off a spreadsheet. 

 Smart teams use statistical analysis to compliment what they see. Both are invaluable and ignoring either puts you at a clear disadvantage.  From a fans perspective it’s just something else to talk about. 

[Adamixoye 604]

34 minutes ago, Chiefsfan1963 said:

Wasn't analytics what Harbaugh used to determine what to do in KC/Baltimore game? Wasn't it also the tool that predicted KC would beat Indy and Houston as well as a close game, with Chiefs winning against Denver?

I'm not scoffing at it

You can say you're not scoffing at it, but you already showed you didn't understand the basics of DVOA, and this response here shows you don't really understand analytics in general. They deal in probabilities. Analytics says there's only a 1 in 36 chance that you'll roll snake eyes with two dice, but if you roll that it doesn't invalidate anything. 

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

3 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

You can say you're not scoffing at it, but you already showed you didn't understand the basics of DVOA, and this response here shows you don't really understand analytics in general. They deal in probabilities. Analytics says there's only a 1 in 36 chance that you'll roll snake eyes with two dice, but if you roll that it doesn't invalidate anything. 

Don't get your panties in a bunch. See it's comments like yours that make people scoff at this shit. Mloe on the other hand provided valuable information. Maybe he could teach you a few things.

[Adamixoye 604]

I don't fully agree with how Mloe described it but he's a lot closer than you are.  I respectfully explained a basic fact that you got wrong about DVOA earlier and you didn't acknowledge that. 

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

So now Mloe doesn't know what he's talking about.

Personally I watch the games because I'm a fan of the Chiefs and have been since they arrived in KC.

I don't need to or try to analyze shit. Its a game for entertainment and they entertain me. If you wish to analyze and run spreadsheets and use the dvr to watch and rewatch the games have at it.

My eyes and what I physically see on the actual playing field works good enough for me.

[Adamixoye 604]

1 minute ago, Chiefsfan1963 said:

So now Mloe doesn't know what he's talking about.

Personally I watch the games because I'm a fan of the Chiefs and have been since they arrived in KC.

I don't need to or try to analyze shit. Its a game for entertainment and they entertain me. If you wish to analyze and run spreadsheets and use the dvr to watch and rewatch the games have at it.

My eyes and what I physically see on the actual playing field works good enough for me.

I said literally none of that, but if it makes you feel better to argue against a straw man then have at it. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

3 hours ago, xen said:

From today's practice

 

They showed some true drills on the local news and he was lining up under center and rolling out like nothing was wrong.  That wasn’t however 11 v 11 which probably paints the true story of what to expect.  Media has been locked out for that. 

[Lamardirts 2,114]

40 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

I don't fully agree with how Mloe described it but he's a lot closer than you are.  I respectfully explained a basic fact that you got wrong about DVOA earlier and you didn't acknowledge that. 

Don't waste your breath. 63 isn't going to admit when he's made a stupid assumption.  

[SEMO 6,811]

1 hour ago, Mloe68 said:

They showed some true drills on the local news and he was lining up under center and rolling out like nothing was wrong.  That wasn’t however 11 v 11 which probably paints the true story of what to expect.  Media has been locked out for that. 

Dudes a robot.

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

1 hour ago, Lamardirts said:

Don't waste your breath. 63 isn't going to admit when he's made a stupid assumption.  

Your right one time I assumed you had a clue.

[SEMO 6,811]

Everyone keep it civil, please.  

[xen 1,010,220]

[Mloe68 1,521]

6 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

I'm not too surprised that we're middle of the pack in defensive DVOA.  Just by holistic measures, let's look game-by-game:

• JAX:  held them to 13 points until the game was out of hand, and the one TD was really a fantastic catch by the WR that was well-covered by us.  Two garbage time TDs for a total of 26 points.
• OAK:  held them to 10 points, all early, then absolutely shut them down.
• BAL:  only allowed the opening drive TD in the first half, allowed us to build a 2+ score lead, then played soft and let them back in, total of 28 points.  Against an offense that has been running over some teams.
• DET:  our worst performance, IMO.  30 points, could have been a lot worse if not for the fumbles, did score the defensive TD.
• IND:  awful against the rush, but held them to FGs instead of TDs.  Kept the game with a score for most of it even as the offense looked its worst in the Mahomes' era.
• HOU:  similar to the IND game, but worse.  31 points, but one HOU TD was gifted by the fumble at the end of the 1st half.
• DEN:  total domination even if against a bad offense, could have been a shutout if not for TWO drive extending 3rd down penalties on the first drive.

Dare I say, that's not a terrible defense, rather, that's an average defense experiencing severe ups and downs.  If at least some of the ups-and-downs are due to new players and a new scheme, there is a path to this defense being more consistent and pretty average at worst by the end of the year.

Optimistic?  Maybe.  But plausible.

One thing that’s concerning here is reality we have faced mostly bottom tier passing QBs. The team with the best passer we’ve faced tore us up. Same with Watson. Aaron Rodgers will be one big time reality check either way. 

[dksww 484]

Mahomes officially listed as OUT for Sunday.  No surprise.  Frank Clark is a surprise with a neck injury.  I did not see this last week after the game.