Super Bowl Prediction

[Okiechief1 425]

10 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

...yes?

That's all consistent with what I said.  Wild card teams have won it in the past.  I couldn't find the stat directly, so I just had to scroll through Wikipedia pages to figure it out myself.  Baltimore in 2012 was the last time a team that didn't have a bye even MADE the Super Bowl.  So in the last six seasons (2013 through 2018) both teams to make the Super Bowl have had a bye.  Not a terribly long streak and not impossible to overcome, but not very encouraging for teams playing on the first weekend (#3 through #6 seeds).

About time for that streak to be broken unless bye some miracle Miami knocks off the Pats then that streak can stay in tact.  

[Mloe68 1,521]

42 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

I forget the exact stat but it's also worth mentioning that there is a streak going back several years now where only teams with a bye even make the Super Bowl.  Obviously a few wild-card round teams have won, like both Eli Giants teams and Aaron Rodgers' only win, but it's a mh harder road.

It hasn’t happened at all recently in part because the Patriots have run off 12-14 wins per season the last five years and then dominated at home in the playoffs.  Before that though the Super Bowl champion went through the wild card round five times In seven years (2007-2013)

[Adamixoye 604]

12 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

It hasn’t happened at all recently in part because the Patriots have run off 12-14 wins per season the last five years and then dominated at home in the playoffs.  Before that though the Super Bowl champion went through the wild card round five times In seven years (2007-2013)

The Patriots are a factor but that doesn't explain the NFC over the last six years.  It COULD be random variation, or maybe something has changed in the last handful of years.  Hard to prove either way with a limited data set.

[reesebobby 5,662]

4 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

The Patriots are a factor but that doesn't explain the NFC over the last six years.  It COULD be random variation, or maybe something has changed in the last handful of years.  Hard to prove either way with a limited data set.

I did an in depth statistical analysis.  Statistically, we are due to win the next 5 super bowls and it doesn't matter whether we are the 1 seed or the 6.  Plus or minus 1 standard deviation or so. 

[oldtimer 8,686]

1 hour ago, Adamixoye said:

...yes?

That's all consistent with what I said.  Wild card teams have won it in the past.  I couldn't find the stat directly, so I just had to scroll through Wikipedia pages to figure it out myself.  Baltimore in 2012 was the last time a team that didn't have a bye even MADE the Super Bowl.  So in the last six seasons (2013 through 2018) both teams to make the Super Bowl have had a bye.  Not a terribly long streak and not impossible to overcome, but not very encouraging for teams playing on the first weekend (#3 through #6 seeds).

and I agree just adding more information for context.

[Mloe68 1,521]

51 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

The Patriots are a factor but that doesn't explain the NFC over the last six years.  It COULD be random variation, or maybe something has changed in the last handful of years.  Hard to prove either way with a limited data set.

When you completely take the AFC out of the equation it really narrows the odds of it happening at all. Under normal conditions it’s not that unusual. Just off hand I remember three different teams the Chiefs played in the wild card round that have gone on to win the Super Bowl. Get hot and most importantly healthy in January. That’s the key. 

[qnet 1,150]

I've been thinking about the wild card team winning it all for a while now,  and think the Chiefs could be that team. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

1 hour ago, qnet said:

I've been thinking about the wild card team winning it all for a while now,  and think the Chiefs could be that team. 

Hey Steve Spagnuola has already done it twice as a DC.  So why not!   Key other than obviously winning each week is how we come out physically. 

[mex 65,581]

14 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

If we had the same playoff draw as last year I’d be unbelievably confident we were headed for Miami. Not the way it works though. Tough road ahead but I think we are legitimately capable. I just hope we’ve saved our best for last. 

I don't see why the draw is worse... at some point ya gotta play 'em. And our home playoff record ain't exactly stellar

we can beat anyone on the road

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

On 12/26/2019 at 1:20 PM, Mloe68 said:

So I’ll say Packers vs Ravens if Baltimore doesn’t have to play KC.  Super Bowl 1 rematch if they do.  

Its time for revenge for 1967 🙄  ♿️

[jetlord 10,209]

23 hours ago, mex said:

I don't see why the draw is worse... at some point ya gotta play 'em. And our home playoff record ain't exactly stellar

we can beat anyone on the road

It's not the draw, it's the defense.  Home field advantage comes when the D is on the field and the stands are rocking.  Last years defense and the first ten games this year had no enthusiasm for the defense.  Right now, I think playing in Arrowhead would be like the mid/late 90s and that's good for the Chiefs.  They lost that advantage this season in the Titans game and cut their odds of the SB in the process.  Give the Chiefs HFA this season, and I'd feel pretty confident. 

[mex 65,581]

4 minutes ago, jetlord said:

It's not the draw, it's the defense.  Home field advantage comes when the D is on the field and the stands are rocking.  Last years defense and the first ten games this year had no enthusiasm for the defense.  Right now, I think playing in Arrowhead would be like the mid/late 90s and that's good for the Chiefs.  They lost that advantage this season in the Titans game and cut their odds of the SB in the process.  Give the Chiefs HFA this season, and I'd feel pretty confident. 

Meh... we're 3-8 in the playoffs with HFA since Christmas 1971 and that includes the 90's when Arrowhead was rocking

3 of our 4 losses have been at home this year

HFA doesn't mean squat

I mean, if we were 7-0 at home this season I'd tend to agree... but statistically HFA hasn't contributed to the W column

if we're a SB contender... and I think clearly we are... we will win on the road. We have to... because of all those regular season home games we lost

[jetlord 10,209]

11 minutes ago, mex said:

Meh... we're 3-8 in the playoffs with HFA since Christmas 1971 and that includes the 90's when Arrowhead was rocking

3 of our 4 losses have been at home this year

HFA doesn't mean squat

I mean, if we were 7-0 at home this season I'd tend to agree... but statistically HFA hasn't contributed to the W column

if we're a SB contender... and I think clearly we are... we will win on the road. We have to... because of all those regular season home games we lost

Those three losses came when the D was much less effective and before HB and Clark hit their strides.  This is a different team than the one that played the first half of the season.  The losses, starting with the ice game and kicker we can't mention, all had reason (excuses?) for happening.  Most of those came with the Chiefs a marginal playoff team without a competent QB.  During the regular season with good defenses, the home field won the team a number of games.  JMHO

[mex 65,581]

11 minutes ago, jetlord said:

Those three losses came when the D was much less effective and before HB and Clark hit their strides.  This is a different team than the one that played the first half of the season.  The losses, starting with the ice game and kicker we can't mention, all had reason (excuses?) for happening.  Most of those came with the Chiefs a marginal playoff team without a competent QB.  During the regular season with good defenses, the home field won the team a number of games.  JMHO

Certainly HFA can be an advantage. But it hasn't traditionally helped us in the playoffs. This team can win on the road. And we'll have to... 

[jetlord 10,209]

2 minutes ago, mex said:

Certainly HFA can be an advantage. But it hasn't traditionally helped us in the playoffs. This team can win on the road. And we'll have to... 

Yes, they can win anywhere.  I still think it would be an easier path to the SB if they played at home or at least didn't have to beat two divisional winners on the road in two weeks. 

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

1 hour ago, mex said:

Certainly HFA can be an advantage. But it hasn't traditionally helped us in the playoffs. This team can win on the road. And we'll have to... 

Yeah.  The only advantage in the playoffs, when all the teams are good, comes from playing better than the other guys. Period.  Good D is an advantage at home when the other guys are mediocre or suck or have a a young QB who can get rattled.  With playoff caliber teams, you just have to go and beat the other guys up until the clock runs out. If we can't do that, we are an also-ran.

[Mloe68 1,521]

2 hours ago, jetlord said:

Yes, they can win anywhere.  I still think it would be an easier path to the SB if they played at home or at least didn't have to beat two divisional winners on the road in two weeks. 

Playing one extra game and two division winners on the road is without question a more difficult path. But it is what it is. It’s tougher but it’s what we’ve got to do. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

55 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

Yeah.  The only advantage in the playoffs, when all the teams are good, comes from playing better than the other guys. Period.  Good D is an advantage at home when the other guys are mediocre or suck or have a a young QB who can get rattled.  With playoff caliber teams, you just have to go and beat the other guys up until the clock runs out. If we can't do that, we are an also-ran.

Brady was an offsides penalty from throwing three INTs against a historically bad defense at Arrowhead last year. It helps. But you are correct high level QBs, modern technology and silent counts mitigate the huge advantage. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

3 hours ago, mex said:

Meh... we're 3-8 in the playoffs with HFA since Christmas 1971 and that includes the 90's when Arrowhead was rocking

3 of our 4 losses have been at home this year

HFA doesn't mean squat

I mean, if we were 7-0 at home this season I'd tend to agree... but statistically HFA hasn't contributed to the W column

if we're a SB contender... and I think clearly we are... we will win on the road. We have to... because of all those regular season home games we lost

How many of those home playoff losses did we have the inferior QB?  I think largely the home crowd and great defense helped keep us in games where we were outmanned at the most important position. 

[mex 65,581]

3 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

How many of those home playoff losses did we have the inferior QB?  I think largely the home crowd and great defense helped keep us in games where we were outmanned at the most important position. 

some of those games we had great defenses (Marty, Gunther)

some we had great offenses (Dick)

we still managed to lose way more home games than we won.. too many

 

[mex 65,581]

1 hour ago, Fmbl2187 said:

Yeah.  The only advantage in the playoffs, when all the teams are good, comes from playing better than the other guys. Period.  Good D is an advantage at home when the other guys are mediocre or suck or have a a young QB who can get rattled.  With playoff caliber teams, you just have to go and beat the other guys up until the clock runs out. If we can't do that, we are an also-ran.

agree 100%

[qnet 1,150]

Winning the wildcard game and two division leaders on the road will be very hard, but I think it's possible. Ironically, the closest team (of the modern era) I could find in a similar situation is the 97 Broncos. 

Statically, the 97 Broncos were slightly better than the Chiefs in both offense and defense, although the offenses are really close. It's the Broncos running game with Terrell Davis were they really have the advantage.

Back then, the 14-10 game was the worse loss emotionally for me as a Chiefs fan, but I have come to realize how hard that game was for the Broncos to win, looking at the box score. They then went on to defeat the Steelers who had a similar QB that the Ravens had, although I think Lamar Jackson is a lot better than Kordell Stewart. 

Kordell Stewart doesn't compare to facing Jackson and the 97 Chiefs don't compare to the Patriots in Gillette, especially beating them there twice. Still would have to get the monkey off their back by beating probably the Titans. 

The more I think about it, yeah, this is going to be hard. 

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

Of course its going to be hard.  Its the playoffs.  But being in a frightened and pessimistic mindset because of the past is just the same as voodoo.  It is giving in to superstition. If you flip a coin 10 times, and it comes up heads the first 9 times, the chances are still 50-50 on the next flip.  I think fans waste their time with increased anxiety because of the past instead of enjoying the present and accepting the outcome.  We are no more likely to get knocked out than any other team, maybe less with Mahomes on our side.  He can come back from any deficit. We never had that ability in the past.

[kkuenn 3,597]

10 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

Of course its going to be hard.  Its the playoffs.  But being in a frightened and pessimistic mindset because of the past is just the same as voodoo.  It is giving in to superstition. If you flip a coin 10 times, and it comes up heads the first 9 times, the chances are still 50-50 on the next flip.  I think fans waste their time with increased anxiety because of the past instead of enjoying the present and accepting the outcome.  We are no more likely to get knocked out than any other team, maybe less with Mahomes on our side.  He can come back from any deficit. We never had that ability in the past.

True but the probability of 10 heads in a row is 1/1024. Something we see with our horrible home playoff record. Some day we should probably hope for better results.

[Thegoatee 1,780]

Ravens 38

49ers 17