Keys to Chiefs vs Texans - Divisional Round

[azchief21 5,278]

I'd like a quick strike then a defensive 3 and out. Another quick strike and and a defensive 3 and out. Another quick strike then a defensive pick 6. Repeat. 

[Adamixoye 604]

6 minutes ago, jetlord said:

 Ask the Patriots about that.  Ask the Saints about that.  If either had stopped Henry or Cook, they would still be playing.  Stopping the run doesn't win the game.  Failing to stop it, will probably lose it.  

You mean the teams that only scored 13 and 20 points, respectively, yet still were in it until the final seconds?  They lost because of defense?

[Adamixoye 604]

38 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Stopping the run is much more important than being able to run it yourself. Through the first 6 weeks of the season we were giving up 5.3 YPC and had lost twice and were lucky to beat a bad Detroit team that ran all over us. Not coincidentally in our current six game winning streak we are giving up only 4.4 YPC.  Not great, but we don’t have to be great.  We just can’t be bad. I’d use the word functional to describe what’s necessary.  

YPC for those first 6 games that you mention:

• Oakland - 6.8
• Baltimore - 6.3
• Detroit - 5.3
• Jacksonville - 5.1
• Houston - 4.7
• Indianapolis - 4.0

So we won our worst 4 by YPC allowed and lost our 2 best.  The "almost" loss you mention was 3rd worst out of 6.

[Mloe68 1,521]

8 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

YPC for those first 6 games that you mention:

• Oakland - 6.8
• Baltimore - 6.3
• Detroit - 5.3
• Jacksonville - 5.1
• Houston - 4.7
• Indianapolis - 4.0

So we won our worst 4 by YPC allowed and lost our 2 best.  The "almost" loss you mention was 3rd worst out of 6.

First off the Jags are not one of the teams I was talking about as they only had 80 yards rushing on a paltry 16 carries. And by the way we gave up under 100 yards rushing 6 times and were 6-0 in those games. So the worst 5 rush defense games we went 2-3, the best 5 we went 5-0. 

You left out the Titans who rushed for 225 yards and an absurd 8.7 YPC.  The Raiders were overwhelmed by a record setting 28 point 2nd quarter which completely mititaged the fact Jacobs was running all over us. He only got 19 carries though because of it. Indy just pounded the rock again and again and again to the tune of 45 carries as they played with a lead the entire second half. Truth be told penalties probably beat us there as much as the Colts running game. We knew what was coming and still couldn't get off the damn field and get the offense going. 

On point here the Chiefs have regressed badly in the red zone this year and haven't been able to simply overwhelm an opponent into making running game almost irrelevant. Then again we scored 31 against the Patriots in the AFC Title game but gave up almost 200 yards rushing and lost. Flash forward a year and we hold the Patriots to 90 yards rushing and win. Rush defense absolutely matters. Again we do not have to be great there. We just can't be awful. 

[Adamixoye 604]

3 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

First off the Jags are not one of the teams I was talking about as they only had 80 yards rushing on a paltry 16 carries. And by the way we gave up under 100 yards rushing 6 times and were 6-0 in those games. So the worst 5 rush defense games we went 2-3, the best 5 we went 5-0. 

My dude, my post above was in reference to where you cited how we were 4-2 in our first six games giving up a higher YPC then 6-0 in our last six games giving up a lower YPC.  Right here:

3 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Through the first 6 weeks of the season we were giving up 5.3 YPC and had lost twice and were lucky to beat a bad Detroit team that ran all over us.

I was analyzing that six game stretch, in that stretch we won in our worse YPC defense games and lost in our better ones.  You can't just throw out the Jacksonville game because it wasn't high enough volume, I'm addressing the stat you as you decided to cite it here, and not your other argument about our worst total yardage games.  This stat doesn't show at all what you made it out to be.

And I can't stress enough, "least important" is not the same as "unimportant."  I feel like everyone keeps responding because they think I'm saying the latter.

[Mloe68 1,521]

3 hours ago, artsy said:

Obriens gameplan back then was to pound the rock on us. And of course, if you look closely you can see we played a shit-ton of nickel defense the first time. Up until about 5-6 weeks ago, teams were gashing our Nickel defense. Since then, we still line up with Nickel personnel, but either Sorrenson or Mathieu is down in the box, which has really helped against the run.
Plus, we had some very unlikely turnovers in that game and like you said Erving was wrecking the offense all by himself.

IMO, If we can limit them to 125 yds rushing or less we WILL win. I haven't identified a lot of weaknesses with Watson. He can make every throw. The only thing I've noticed is that he has a tendency to hold the ball longer than he should, which should give us a chance for several sacks. But we gotta execute when we get to him or he will make us pay.

One thing also to watch is the reality Thornhill has been so reliable at free safety its let Spags use Mathieu near the LOS where he has completely wreaked havoc. Are we going to be able to to this without Thornhill?

[Mloe68 1,521]

8 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

My dude, my post above was in reference to where you cited how we were 4-2 in our first six games giving up a higher YPC then 6-0 in our last six games giving up a lower YPC.  Right here:

I was analyzing that six game stretch, in that stretch we won in our worse YPC defense games and lost in our better ones.  You can't just throw out the Jacksonville game because it wasn't high enough volume, I'm addressing the stat you as you decided to cite it here, and not your other argument about our worst total yardage games.  This stat doesn't show at all what you made it out to be.

And I can't stress enough, "least important" is not the same as "unimportant."  I feel like everyone keeps responding because they think I'm saying the latter.

On point again. As the Chiefs rush defense got better, so did the Chiefs record. We were awful through 6 weeks and you can go back and look at comments from Spags about how much that was killing the overall defense. If the offense overwhelms a team, the rush D is the least important. But our red zone regression this year made the run defense far more important. And our overall record in such games directly reflects that. 

[Adamixoye 604]

Just now, Mloe68 said:

On point again. As the Chiefs rush defense got better, so did the Chiefs record. We were awful through 6 weeks and you can go back and look at comments from Spags about how much that was killing the overall defense. If the offense overwhelms a team, the rush D is the least important. But our red zone regression this year made the run defense far more important.

You can't just throw out stats that say something completely different than how you first contextualized them and then try to avoid it by saying "on point again."

I completely agree that the Chiefs run defense has improved and the overall defense has improved.  Do you think I'm saying something different?  Do you really think I think run defense doesn't matter at all?

The topic of the OP is the "keys" to the game.  Rush D is less important than Pass D as a general rule, and I don't see any reason why we're an exception as a team or in this game.  That's been my point all along, despite what everyone has tried to twist it into.

[Mloe68 1,521]

12 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

You can't just throw out stats that say something completely different than how you first contextualized them and then try to avoid it by saying "on point again."

I completely agree that the Chiefs run defense has improved and the overall defense has improved.  Do you think I'm saying something different?  Do you really think I think run defense doesn't matter at all?

The topic of the OP is the "keys" to the game.  Rush D is less important than Pass D as a general rule, and I don't see any reason why we're an exception as a team or in this game.  That's been my point all along, despite what everyone has tried to twist it into.

My point never changed. I was originally talking about our 5 worst rush defense games. The Jags game wasn't one of those. But on point with that horrific 5.2 YPC (31st in the NFL) we had the first six games, had that continued,  we would not have been the 2 seed because our record showed run defense does indeed matter. It became even more important as the offense sputtered through October. The light came on after those six weeks and the scheme clearly started to take hold. And we won despite a clear regression by the offense.

[dhitter 1,424]

2 hours ago, xen said:

Just more evidence that rushing the ball, even in the playoffs, is very much overrated by fans.

For me it's about how the team got to 180 yards. I've seen games where the Chiefs gave up a couple of huge runs and a lot of 2-4 yard runs. At the end of the day you felt like the run defense did it's job for the most part despite what the total amount said. And then there were games (a lot last year for sure) where teams were running at 5-7 yards a pop on most plays. Could be the same total yards at the end of the day but the feeling is different. Like they absolutely could not stop the run (which in many cases was the truth). Chiefs run defense looks like it's back to being better. Gonna give up some yards but capable of getting key stops when called upon.

[Adamixoye 604]

5 minutes ago, dhitter said:

For me it's about how the team got to 180 yards. I've seen games where the Chiefs gave up a couple of huge runs and a lot of 2-4 yard runs. At the end of the day you felt like the run defense did it's job for the most part despite what the total amount said. And then there were games (a lot last year for sure) where teams were running at 5-7 yards a pop on most plays. Could be the same total yards at the end of the day but the feeling is different. Like they absolutely could not stop the run (which in many cases was the truth). Chiefs run defense looks like it's back to being better. Gonna give up some yards but capable of getting key stops when called upon.

This is something that advanced stats probably capture better.  In the Colts game we held them to a lower YPC (4.0) but it still felt like they churned out first downs.  Although we kept them from scoring a ton (19 points) and if that wasn't the worst offensive performance of the Mahomes era (partly due to the Colts D, partly due to our poor line play and Pat's ankle aggravation) we could have easily won that one anyway.

[Mloe68 1,521]

8 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

This is something that advanced stats probably capture better.  In the Colts game we held them to a lower YPC (4.0) but it still felt like they churned out first downs.  Although we kept them from scoring a ton (19 points) and if that wasn't the worst offensive performance of the Mahomes era (partly due to the Colts D, partly due to our poor line play and Pat's ankle aggravation) we could have easily won that one anyway.

As Spags said, teams knew we couldn't stop the run and it made them run the ball more. Games 4-6 we had 35, 45 and 41 carries against us. Way more than their normal. Obviously those coaches felt like the best way to beat us was on the ground. And it worked. Once we stopped getting gashed there against Denver in week 7, nobody had even 30 carries against us again. You cannot be bad against the run and expect to win. It took a historically good offense last year to overcome it and even there it bit us in the end. 

Question as it pertains to this game is will the Texans alter their offensive plan where they ran the ball so much in October. If they don't, they will probably lose. 

[xen 1,010,220]

The defense gelling on the back end and Patty getting back to health have been the 2 single biggest factors in the late season wins.  Rush D getting slightly better helps by all means, but we only need to be somewhere in the same neighborhood as average there to be ok.  Pass D and offense have to carry the weight in the playoffs.  

[gochiefsgo 380]

I’m telling ya Watson is going to be running for his life in this game. He’s fantastic on the run but it’s not going to save them. Chiefs will sack him at least 5 times if he pulls that running shit. I expect Chris Jones to absolutely blow that hodgepodge oline up. 

[gochiefsgo 380]

Double post 

[Mloe68 1,521]

4 minutes ago, xen said:

The defense gelling on the back end and Patty getting back to health have been the 2 single biggest factors in the late season wins.  Rush D getting slightly better helps by all means, but we only need to be somewhere in the same neighborhood as average there to be ok.  Pass D and offense have to carry the weight in the playoffs.  

Thats really the point Xen. We weren't average there the first six weeks, we were REALLY bad. And lost 2 ugly games and almost lost a third to a horrible Lions team beacuse of it. 

[xen 1,010,220]

2 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Thats really the point Xen. We weren't average there the first six weeks, we were REALLY bad. And lost 2 ugly games and almost lost a third to a horrible Lions team beacuse of it. 

Well if the assertion is we just can't totally suck at something, I entirely agree.  I do see some fans want us to pound the rock all the time or get this or that running back, and I really think it doesn't matter that much.  

[Adamixoye 604]

Just now, xen said:

Well if the assertion is we just can't totally suck at something, I entirely agree.

This.  And I'm pretty sure no one said it would be okay to totally suck.  We're just ranking the relative importance of things.

But I would say that it's possible for us to suck at Run D and still have a chance to win, just like we did a few times this year.  It would just lower our chances significantly.  On the other hand, if Pat turns into Steve Bono/Matt Cassel we have zero chance.

[xen 1,010,220]

1 minute ago, Adamixoye said:

This.  And I'm pretty sure no one said it would be okay to totally suck.  We're just ranking the relative importance of things.

But I would say that it's possible for us to suck at Run D and still have a chance to win, just like we did a few times this year.  It would just lower our chances significantly.  On the other hand, if Pat turns into Steve Bono/Matt Cassel we have zero chance.

Not gonna lie, I briefly considered banning you for putting those words together in a sentence.

[Adamixoye 604]

5 minutes ago, xen said:

Not gonna lie, I briefly considered banning you for putting those words together in a sentence.

That's fair, and to be honest I knew I was pushing the envelope in writing it.  However, I'd like the opportunity to fully earn my ban someday, if you'll allow it.

[Mloe68 1,521]

23 minutes ago, xen said:

Well if the assertion is we just can't totally suck at something, I entirely agree.  I do see some fans want us to pound the rock all the time or get this or that running back, and I really think it doesn't matter that much.  

Great running backs are not your ticket to the Super Bowl. That's for sure. Then again we had a huge red zone regression this year and its hard not to think losing Kareem Hunt wasn't a big part of that.  Everything is situational. I mean I don't think the Ravens or Titans are focused first on the other teams passing game on Saturday. 

As for the Chiefs there was a point that this season could have gone horribly south really fast. Teams were running on us at will and now we had no Mahomes to overcome it. And then poof. Spags made some key changes (got Lee out of the game and Mathieu close to the LOS) and all of a sudden we were a competent run defense. That win over a great running back in Dalvin Cook with Matt Moore under center was something special in my opinion. This is the most complete Chiefs team of my lifetime IMO. We aren't bad anywhere now. Lets just hope losing Thornhill didn't disrupt that balance. 

[Calichief 3,016]

4 hours ago, xen said:

Just more evidence that rushing the ball, even in the playoffs, is very much overrated by fans.

Especially when scoring td’s

however, that element has to be there.

do you agree with that? Because I think it’s the key to the chiefs success in these playoffs.

imo 

[xen 1,010,220]

7 minutes ago, Calichief said:

Especially when scoring td’s

however, that element has to be there.

do you agree with that? Because I think it’s the key to the chiefs success in these playoffs.

imo 

I think you need to be able to run effectively when you have to.  Like when you're trying to kill the clock.  Or inside the 5 with a fresh set of downs.  Or to balance out the defensive sets.

There's no question you need an effective run game and rush D.  It's just that it doesn't matter as much as passing.  If you suck at passing you wont get that far at all.  Unless you're the Ravens and you run a gimmick offense.

You can kinda suck at rushing and still win a superbowl

 

[Calichief 3,016]

26 minutes ago, xen said:

I think you need to be able to run effectively when you have to.  Like when you're trying to kill the clock.  Or inside the 5 with a fresh set of downs.  Or to balance out the defensive sets.

There's no question you need an effective run game and rush D.  It's just that it doesn't matter as much as passing.  If you suck at passing you wont get that far at all.  Unless you're the Ravens and you run a gimmick offense.

You can kinda suck at rushing and still win a superbowl

 

For me, it’s the threat. It’s the Alex Smith thing, if you can’t do it then there’s no fear of it. they can load up other places.

[moons314 2,463]

22 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

The importance of run defense is overrated.  If Mahomes outplays Watson and we don't have meltdown turnovers or special teams plays then we win.

I agree.  In this situation though, I think run defense means keeping Watson contained.  There's nothing more frustrating than watching blanket coverage rendered pointless by a QB scrambling for 15 yards and a first down.  My concern isn't them running, because I don't think Hyde is all that impressive, it's broken pass plays that turn into runs.  We can score enough to make their traditional running game a non story, Watson has to be the focus.