How do we stop Henry

[Mloe68 1,521]

11 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

In another analytics-driven comment that's just going to get ignored or dismissed by many, study of the history of red zone offense suggests it is highly variable and not indicative of future performance.  We were great last year, then regressed this year, then positive regression hit in the playoff game.

We should have been more aggressive against Tennessee, our 2019 red zone issues notwithstanding.

This is behind a paywall, but do you know when we were great in the red zone?  2011.  It's a horribly overrated stat.

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/7170232/red-zone-efficiency-meaningless-predictor-future-performance-nfl

Just to be clear. You are suggesting that the analytics based on historical data tell us that the historical data when it comes to this statistic are not relevant?

I'm confused by the 2011 statistic. From what I see we were dead last in the NFL converting only 33 percent of trips to the red zone into TDs. That's beyond awful. But a pretty good indicator of how bad that offense was.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct?date=2012-02-05

The Chiefs had become bottom feeders in the red zone in Alex Smiths last two years. One of the big reasons we paid so much for another red zone threat in Sammy Watkins. Our ability or willingness to run the ball in the red zone had become a problem since losing Jamaal Charles. And we had a QB unwilling to challenge tight windows that it takes to be successful in the passing game there. In other words to me again there are a lot of factors that go into a teams success and failure in the red zone. And luck is way down there. Even last week our positive regression was almost certainly in part because we were playing the worst red zone defense in the NFL. But hey if we finish in the red zone like that the next two games, we will win the Super Bowl. 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/06/24/chiefs-red-zone-offense-will-dramatically-improve-2018/

 

[Adamixoye 604]

48 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Just to be clear. You are suggesting that the analytics based on historical data tell us that the historical data when it comes to this statistic are not relevant?

I'm not sure what you mean by this and I certainly don't know how you got that from what I said.

One thing analytics does is track variability and stability in stats.  You use analytics to track what seems to have predictive value going forward and what doesn't.  And red zone stats, either traditional or advanced, are noisy and unstable.  When you have a noisy stat, it's easy to find micro-explanations that seem correct for every up and down variation, and we have a tendency toward confirmation bias, but that doesn't make those explanations true.

Stats occur on a continuum, or maybe a grid, of being descriptive and predictive.  All stats tell you something about what happened (maybe it's a worthwhile something, maybe it isn't), while some give you at least a sense of what is likely to happen going forward.  All of that is to varying degrees.  The point is that our red zone performance this year is probably not predictive of our red zone performance going forward.  We're a good offense, and we'll probably be fine in the red zone going forward...on average.  It could bite us in a single game, for sure.

You keep trying to trap me into all-or-nothing thinking, and that's not what these sorts of discussions are about.

48 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

I'm confused by the 2011 statistic. From what I see we were dead last in the NFL converting only 33 percent of trips to the red zone into TDs. That's beyond awful. But a pretty good indicator of how bad that offense was.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct?date=2012-02-05

The Chiefs had become bottom feeders in the red zone in Alex Smiths last two years. One of the big reasons we paid so much for another red zone threat in Sammy Watkins. Our ability or willingness to run the ball in the red zone had become a problem since losing Jamaal Charles. And we had a QB unwilling to challenge tight windows that it takes to be successful in the passing game there. In other words to me again there are a lot of factors that go into a teams success and failure in the red zone. And luck is way down there. Even last week our positive regression was almost certainly in part because we were playing the worst red zone defense in the NFL. But hey if we finish in the red zone like that the next two games, we will win the Super Bowl. 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/06/24/chiefs-red-zone-offense-will-dramatically-improve-2018/

 

I was being imprecise in what I said, but look at the article date and it sort of proves my point.  That article was written at basically the halfway point of the 2011 season.  So they had a good red zone offense for the first half of the season (good by some advanced measures and average by traditional measures, and he explains where the difference comes from) that cratered in the second half according to the traditional measure that you cited...because they weren't that good.  Their future red zone performance over the second half of the season was better predicted by their overall offensive performance (bad!) than their red zone performance up to that point (average to good, depending).  That's actually a GREAT example of descriptive vs. predictive stats.

None of this is to say that there is NOTHING to red zone efficiency, either positive or negative.  It's not that schemes and playcalling or the ability to run don't matter.  Again, it's not an all-or-nothing concept.  But your AA article basically admits there was positive red zone regression to be had (they'd been good, then bad in 2017) and tries to assign reasons to it, when the main reason we improved from 2017 to 2018 was...our offense got really good with Mahomes.

[reesebobby 5,661]

I assume that all means that touchdowns are good?  You fucking brainiacs are giving me a headache. 

[artsy 1,137]

When it comes to stopping Henry, I think Honey Badger said it best this week.."That to stop him, you have to wanna tackle him and stop him". Sound gap discipline with the guys up front and aggressive play by the LB's and safeties.

Henry is gonna get the carry the ball no less than 30 times. Period. It doesn't matter if were up by 3 or 30. That's their offense.

We just have to be ready and prepared for it on both sides of the ball. IMO, just getting up 2 scores won't be enough to make Vrabel panic and the run game. We have to get up 2 scores and stay up two scores. We have to control the TOP while scoring TD's on long time consuming drives.....especially in the second half/4th qtr.

IMO, if we can get into the top of 4th qtr with a 2 TD lead and the ball we can finish them off by completely utilizing the clock and minimizing the threat of Henry killing us, leaving the ball in Tannefhill's hands.

[qnet 1,150]

A lot of good points in this thread. I finally made myself watch a condensed version of the last game against the Titans.  While I'm naturally still a little worried, I can see why some of you, and the local KC sports media think the Chiefs will do better this coming Sunday

The one thing I noticed was the penalties. Just like the Texans loss in the regular season, the Chiefs had some costly penalties in the Titans game.

They had a little over half the penalties in the playoff game. It goes without saying, if they cut the penalties in half in the AFCC, it will help greatly.

Derrick Henry is a very good player, and he's going to get some yards against the Chiefs at times. Having said that, he wasn't bludgeoning the Chiefs in that game like I believed. The Chiefs were playing pretty good against him at times. In that 68 yard run, the Titans O line just won.

In that game, I caught the tale end of Romo mention how Mahomes just wasn't totally right. 

Knowing the condition of the Chiefs team now, I feel better about this game. I'm still nervous but feel better.

 

[artsy 1,137]

20 minutes ago, qnet said:

A lot of good points in this thread. I finally made myself watch a condensed version of the last game against the Titans.  While I'm naturally still a little worried, I can see why some of you, and the local KC sports media think the Chiefs will do better this coming Sunday

The one thing I noticed was the penalties. Just like the Texans loss in the regular season, the Chiefs had some costly penalties in the Titans game.

They had a little over half the penalties in the playoff game. It goes without saying, if they cut the penalties in half in the AFCC, it will help greatly.

Derrick Henry is a very good player, and he's going to get some yards against the Chiefs at times. Having said that, he wasn't bludgeoning the Chiefs in that game like I believed. The Chiefs were playing pretty good against him at times. In that 68 yard run, the Titans O line just won.

In that game, I caught the tale end of Romo mention how Mahomes just wasn't totally right. 

Knowing the condition of the Chiefs team now, I feel better about this game. I'm still nervous but feel better.

 

Yup. We gotta win upfront. The "secret" to Henry's success is their oline.

When you get hands on him behind or at the LOS, he doesn't seem to do much. But if you let him get to the second level it's an AUTOMATIC 7 yds....AT LEAST.

[Adamixoye 604]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/1/15/21067057/chiefs-titans-49ers-packers-conference-title-game-rematches

[FANATIC 852]

25 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/1/15/21067057/chiefs-titans-49ers-packers-conference-title-game-rematches

Summary: Mahomes’s health gives the Chiefs a bigger advantage than they had last time around. While Tennessee won that game, Kansas City was in command most of the way—it succumbed only after all of its penalties, special teams gaffes, and costly turnovers added up. The Chiefs will be hard to beat if they don’t beat themselves.

[Mloe68 1,521]

Based on Andy's comments and Terez Paylor yesterday its pretty clear it will be a surprise if Chris Jones can play on Sunday. Basically shutting him down and will look at him again on Saturday. For what its worth in the odd saga of Mo Claiborne, he was back at practice today.  Also should be noted Vivid Seats ticket analyzing data suggests there will be a ton of Titans fans at the game. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 20,000 to be exact. Kind of ironic considering there weren't much more than that in Nashville. Ticket brokers control a ton of the AFC Title game tickets so its not surprising. 

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

1 hour ago, artsy said:

Henry is gonna get the carry the ball no less than 30 times. Period. It doesn't matter if were up by 3 or 30. That's their offense.

I hope they do run it if they're down 2 or more TDs. They will eat the clock and still be down 1 or more TDs.

If the Chiefs don't shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers or dropped passes/muffed kicks, it won't matter what Tennessee does.

Chiefs ARE the better team and should steamroll the Tits.

[artsy 1,137]

9 minutes ago, Chiefsfan1963 said:

I hope they do run it if they're down 2 or more TDs. They will eat the clock and still be down 1 or more TDs.

If the Chiefs don't shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers or dropped passes/muffed kicks, it won't matter what Tennessee does.

Chiefs ARE the better team and should steamroll the Tits.

I agree 100%.

[Biggjliv4 1,292]

Henry will get his, what we have to be mindful of is after they pound him 7 to 10 times they will play action us for a deep ball, we can't let Tannehill connect on these, guy has a knack for it. Corners have to man up and stay disciplined as I think the safeties will be stacking the box. 

Otherwise, we are the better team I believe. Going to be a tough physical game, KC has to grin and bear it for 60 minutes. Then it's a week bye to heal and SUPER BOWL!

[Balto 723]

I really think field position will play the biggest role.  

[Mloe68 1,521]

7 hours ago, artsy said:

Yup. We gotta win upfront. The "secret" to Henry's success is their oline.

When you get hands on him behind or at the LOS, he doesn't seem to do much. But if you let him get to the second level it's an AUTOMATIC 7 yds....AT LEAST.

Scary thing is our Dline is likely missing Okafor, Ogbah, Jones and Speaks. That’s half of our projected two deep rotation including. Yet I still have some confidence there. 

[Holmes4six! 968]

Titans have thrived in the post season with red zone d and scoring TD themselves. They have made there opponents travel the full length of the field where they have had a handful of short fields. ( 3 against BALT). 

If chiefs don’t make mistakes, win field position and score TD instead of FG they will win. Make titans earn every yard. 

[TomahawkChop 255]

Here’s my unscientific take. 

 

Mahomes >>>>>>>> Tannehill

Reid >>>  Vrabel

Home field > away

Chiefs skill position >>> Titans skill position

Chiefs special teams > Titans skill position

 chiefs defense = Titans

Henry >>>>> any chiefs RB

Chiefs are the better team with the better qb and better coach. The two most important differentiators in my mind (coach and qb).

But... the  Titans have been the Chiefs’ Nemesis over the last several years, and the Titans have already surprised so far this offseason, so anything can happen. 

My gut tells me the chiefs win comfortably.

[Docbarnabee 225]

I am not worried about stopping Henry. We just need to limit the scoring.  I really do not think the Titans can hold the Chiefs under 35 points.  He will get his, but he is going to have to earn every yard.  If we keep him from getting big , Chunk plays then I think we will get up on them big.   What we do know, is that they generally do not use him in obvious passing situations.   I seriously doubt they are going to run it on 3rd and long. They may surprise us and commit to no punts and no field goals and force us to stop them.  

[sith13 1,746]

As long as we don't turn the ball over it should be relatively easy. Mahomes can put up more than Henry will so we need to avoid stupid mistakes like the first quarter against Houston. Titans have the means to stay on the field and extend drives so it could be a frustrating one if we let it get to that. 

[dhitter 1,424]

Well the Nashville media is taking everything the Chiefs are saying and picking it apart. Like Hitchens quote that when you tackle Henry you have to go low. They laugh and say Henry will just give em a big old stiffarm and keep chugging. Truth is the Chiefs will not stop Henry. The Ravens defense had no answers and they loaded the box all game long.

The best formula for beating the Titans is in all the other aspects of the game. Don't commit a lot of penalties, don't turn over the ball, don't let Tannehill burn the secondary on play action...if the Chiefs lose to a #6 seed at home it will because they just played poorly...period.

[Adamixoye 604]

 

 

[ATLchief 3,126]

Titans will be looking to take Kelce out of the game.  And when I say "take out," I mean take him out.  By any means necessary.  Helmet to helmet, cutting him at the knees, you name it.  They want him watching from the locker room.

 

 

[azchief21 5,278]

I think Pennel and Saunders will step up big time.

[Mloe68 1,521]

20 hours ago, Chiefsfan1963 said:

I hope they do run it if they're down 2 or more TDs. They will eat the clock and still be down 1 or more TDs.

If the Chiefs don't shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers or dropped passes/muffed kicks, it won't matter what Tennessee does.

Chiefs ARE the better team and should steamroll the Tits.

You are underestimating  how well this Tennessee team is playing.  Beat BB on the road and then beating up the 1 seed who hadn’t lost in 3 months on the road. Those are two really well coached teams too (as we clearly are) so Vrabel is holding his own. They are also healthy.  
I predict a dog fight if we can’t figure out Henry without putting ourselves into too many one on one situations with two very talented WRs. Neither Harbaugh or Belichick figured that riddle out.  Can Andy Reid. 

[Adamixoye 604]

 

[Mloe68 1,521]

1 hour ago, Adamixoye said:

 

 

I just have to shake my head about the lack of perspective every time I read something like this. When the entire design and focus of a defense is to stop one guy it creates much easier opportunities elsewhere. Even as Henry didn’t have the big numbers yet, his impact was gigantic.  
 

I read some of the same stuff about Tyreek in last years AFC Title game. BB dedicated a corner and safety to him on every play. Fact he only had 1 catch doesn’t minimize his impact as Watkins and Williams ran free. And Tyreek is nowhere near the total percentage of our offense that Henry is to Tennessee.  
 

Difference between Henry and most players is you can scheme most guys out of a game and take your chances elsewhere. Bilechick and Harbaugh tried and failed.