Tua

[Calichief 3,016]

I’m no college/ draft pro like some of you, but I do feel like I can recognize talent.

To see Tua, ranked at number one on some boards is mind boggling to me.

i watched this guy up close and personal in the natty, and I don’t see it. From arm strength to route progressions, it’s not there.
 

 I am going on record here and will predict he is not an nfl starter. He may be a back up, but that’s about it.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

9 hours ago, Calichief said:

I’m no college/ draft pro like some of you, but I do feel like I can recognize talent.

To see Tua, ranked at number one on some boards is mind boggling to me.

i watched this guy up close and personal in the natty, and I don’t see it. From arm strength to route progressions, it’s not there.
 

 I am going on record here and will predict he is not an nfl starter. He may be a back up, but that’s about it.

I think he has pretty good vision, a lighting quick release and has good accuracy.  I dont think he is some athletic specimen, but I disagree about him not being a starter. He may not be a star but I think he will be a starter. 

Having said that I'd take Burrow and Herbert long before I would build a team around Tua. 

[xen 1,010,218]

8 hours ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I think he has pretty good vision, a lighting quick release and has good accuracy.  I dont think he is some athletic specimen, but I disagree about him not being a starter. He may not be a star but I think he will be a starter. 

Having said that I'd take Burrow and Herbert long before I would build a team around Tua. 

I'd take Trevor Lawrence next year over all these guys.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

1 hour ago, xen said:

I'd take Trevor Lawrence next year over all these guys.

Agreed. Kid is a stud, and is improving. His mobility is sneaky too. 

[xen 1,010,218]

Btw I've been watching some Jordan Love.  If I had a great QB coach I might take him over all the non-Burrow QBs this year.  He needs more coaching up than Mahomes but man some of his prior year tape...

[SEMO 6,811]

5 minutes ago, xen said:

Btw I've been watching some Jordan Love.  If I had a great QB coach I might take him over all the non-Burrow QBs this year.  He needs more coaching up than Mahomes but man some of his prior year tape...

He has the highest ceiling and I think he will go top 20.

[Calichief 3,016]

3 hours ago, xen said:

I'd take Trevor Lawrence next year over all these guys.

What’s your Tua take?

[xen 1,010,218]

2 hours ago, Calichief said:

What’s your Tua take?

He has a lot of traits to like.  He better go to a team with a great line though.  Takes too many hits for my liking and injury history is a real concern.  In the right system with the right coach he could be good.

Couple things I like are him having college exposure to pro style passing concepts, and he is good under pressure, which is a definite career killer in the nfl if you don't have that.  Needs work though especially with his reads.  A little quick on the draw.

[Calichief 3,016]

8 hours ago, xen said:

He has a lot of traits to like.  He better go to a team with a great line though.  Takes too many hits for my liking and injury history is a real concern.  In the right system with the right coach he could be good.

Couple things I like are him having college exposure to pro style passing concepts, and he is good under pressure, which is a definite career killer in the nfl if you don't have that.  Needs work though especially with his reads.  A little quick on the draw.

I actually don’t think his release is that quick like some say. It looks like a wind up.

he struggled to get it out against Clemson. But that being said, that Clemson team was ridiculous.

he was surrounded by some serious talent at bama. 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

11 hours ago, xen said:

Btw I've been watching some Jordan Love.  If I had a great QB coach I might take him over all the non-Burrow QBs this year.  He needs more coaching up than Mahomes but man some of his prior year tape...

Can see Ballard drafting him and signing Phyllis to groom him for a couple yrs. Tons of picks and cap space. I think Indy is in good hands.

[sith13 1,746]

On 2/22/2020 at 6:23 AM, Iluvhouse24 said:

I think he has pretty good vision, a lighting quick release and has good accuracy.  I dont think he is some athletic specimen, but I disagree about him not being a starter. He may not be a star but I think he will be a starter. 

Having said that I'd take Burrow and Herbert long before I would build a team around Tua. 

I agree. People always look for the franchise QB early on but Tua looks like he could be the next Dalton which is something the teams tend to look for as stability at QB is a good way to make a team competitive like we had with Smith. 

I don't see Tua as a 1st overall pick though, may be some GMs will see something different as they have more data and expertise but he looks like a low ceiling guy. 

[xen 1,010,218]

 

[xen 1,010,218]

 

[SEMO 6,811]

Not sure if I would even use a 1 on Tua.  That is a tough injury to recover from.  

[xen 1,010,218]

4 hours ago, SEMO said:

Not sure if I would even use a 1 on Tua.  That is a tough injury to recover from.  

Supposedly his combine medical checks went well.

[kccrow 529]

I think Tua's internal clock/release and his accuracy are going to keep him starting for a while sans any injury. That said, I don't know what I'm getting in the NFL from a guy that had the best offensive line and best receiving corps a college QB could ever ask for, not to mention the supportive running game.

If I'm hinging my hopes to a QB this year, it's probably Justin Herbert and let him sit a year. He has the talent. Not sure I see the talent with any other QBs in this draft. Love, to me, is a project I'd consider in round 2, but he's no guys I'd take day 1. 

[sith13 1,746]

Not sure if there's really a 2nd round QB anymore. 2nd round basically means starter after a season which most teams would love to trade up to late 1st to snatch. 

[xen 1,010,218]

On 2/22/2020 at 7:52 PM, Calichief said:

I actually don’t think his release is that quick like some say. It looks like a wind up.

he struggled to get it out against Clemson. But that being said, that Clemson team was ridiculous.

he was surrounded by some serious talent at bama. 

To clarify, by quick on the draw wasn't speaking of his release I meant he's not that patient and gives up on his reads too early.  Watched some of his later tape and I think he might be regressing against pressure.  I wonder how much the injuries play into that.

[Calichief 3,016]

3 hours ago, xen said:

To clarify, by quick on the draw wasn't speaking of his release I meant he's not that patient and gives up on his reads too early.  Watched some of his later tape and I think he might be regressing against pressure.  I wonder how much the injuries play into that.

Fair point. I think he gets over drafted. I think he struggles at the next level. I don’t dislike him or anything, but I just don’t see it. Also, look at the talent he was surrounded by.. good lord 

[kccrow 529]

9 hours ago, sith13 said:

Not sure if there's really a 2nd round QB anymore. 2nd round basically means starter after a season which most teams would love to trade up to late 1st to snatch. 

I don't know about that. Only 3 years in the current CBA haven't had one and one of those was only because Baltimore traded up to 32 to take Jackson. 2019 and 2017 did. 

[liquidfriend 1,151]

On 3/3/2020 at 1:27 PM, xen said:

I wonder how much the injuries play into that.

A lot. 

Tua really is in need of the ability to Red Shirt for a full year.  He needs the time to recover from the list of injuries and the extra time to learn how to play the position from some actual quality coaching.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

On 3/2/2020 at 9:08 PM, kccrow said:

I think Tua's internal clock/release and his accuracy are going to keep him starting for a while sans any injury. That said, I don't know what I'm getting in the NFL from a guy that had the best offensive line and best receiving corps a college QB could ever ask for, not to mention the supportive running game.

If I'm hinging my hopes to a QB this year, it's probably Justin Herbert and let him sit a year. He has the talent. Not sure I see the talent with any other QBs in this draft. Love, to me, is a project I'd consider in round 2, but he's no guys I'd take day 1. 

You just described Joe Burrow.  I’m from Alabama and have seen him more than just a game here or there.   He’s a natural born leader and he’s done it longer than Joe.  This years Clemson team wasn’t nearly as good as last years either especially on defense.  His injuries are a huge concern and yes he played with a talented wr corp but the attention has been on him for two straight years.   He might just turn out to be avg but I would say the same thing about Joe.  One monster year in college football doesn’t mean you will be a sure fire stud.  He’s not more talented than Kyler Murray and he struggled big time last year.  As far as Trevor Lawrence, he is another one with multiple years of high level play which I would value a little more than a one year wonder.   Time will tell and Joe might be the next Tom Brady but he could easily be another Andy Dalton as well. 

[kccrow 529]

9 hours ago, Lamardirts said:

You just described Joe Burrow.  I’m from Alabama and have seen him more than just a game here or there.   He’s a natural born leader and he’s done it longer than Joe.  This years Clemson team wasn’t nearly as good as last years either especially on defense.  His injuries are a huge concern and yes he played with a talented wr corp but the attention has been on him for two straight years.   He might just turn out to be avg but I would say the same thing about Joe.  One monster year in college football doesn’t mean you will be a sure fire stud.  He’s not more talented than Kyler Murray and he struggled big time last year.  As far as Trevor Lawrence, he is another one with multiple years of high level play which I would value a little more than a one year wonder.   Time will tell and Joe might be the next Tom Brady but he could easily be another Andy Dalton as well. 

Yeah, I've been much a fan of one-year wonders either. Burrow would scare the shit out of me as an NFL team. He was terrible before this season and all of a sudden explodes with a perfect supporting cast. If I'm looking at that in the NFL, he's never going to get a perfect supporting cast. So, what is he going to be?

These are my personal "rules" for evaluating a QB:

Statistics
2+ Seasons as Starter
2:1 Career TD:INT Ratio
60%+ Career Completion Percentage w/ no season < 58% in last 2
2 Seasons of at least 20 TDs
20 Minimum Wonderlic
7.0+ Career Y/A
1+ Season of 3,000+ Yards

Prototype
6'2" to 6'5"
220-230 pounds
Can throw outside the numbers with little loft
Can throw at least 50 yards in the air
Shows the ability to process beyond hot read
Can throw with touch on underneath and intermediate throws
Can throw off balance and on the run
Throws in face of pressure
Consistently leads receiver away from the defender
Throws timing routes and trusts his receive to end up at the spot
Mental clock with ball out in 2.5 seconds or less
Commands huddle, directs WRs at LOS
Routinely climbs the pocket instead of bailing out

 

Obviously, any system you develop will have it's outliers but I think if you look for certain things and expect certain things then you will end up right more than you are wrong. Guys like Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky, and Lamar Jackson would not have made my cut list for a variety of reasons.

I haven't poured a ton of time in QBs this year, but first glance guys that make it for me statistically are Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Bryce Perkins, Cole McDonald, and Mason Fine.

Close but not quite: Joe Burrow (<58% in 2018), Jake Fromm (didn't have a 3,000+ yd season) , Shea Patterson (56.2% this year and only 205 lbs), Jacob Eason (<60% career and last season at Georgia didn't really play and both <58%) 

Take that list of statistical guys and cut Mason Fine (5'11" 190 doesn't cut it) and Bryce Perkins (lackluster arm... can't make the throws I want, too much loft deep, throws alot of flutter-balls but he's a guy I'd probably keep my eye on really late as a developmental backup). 

 

So, my list of QBs I'd feel relatively comfortable with in the draft is pretty small...

Tua Tagavailoa - Size a slight concern, injury history a major concern, surrounded by alot of talent. If I were picking #1 overall, I'd take Chase Young. He's just not a guy I would confidently hitch my wagon to in a draft this deep in talent overall. He's a top 10 type in most drafts if medicals checked out but I don't know that he's a certified #1 overall in any draft.

Jordan Love - 2019 wasn't as good as 2018 and probably needs a year to sit, work on reads, learn to play within the process and take what is given and quicken that clock. Late 1 or early 2 for me.

Justin Herbert - Not overly excited about his leadership but he's got what I look for overall, needs more touch underneath and lead his receivers better. Top 15.

Jalen Hurts - A near cut for me with his pocket abilities, he needs to stay home, move up, and take the throws that are there instead of cutting bait. Mid round develpmental.

Cole McDonald - Needs to clean up his release, tighten up spiral, mental clock could be a tad faster, deep ball is a bit hit and miss. Guy I'd draft as a backup though and develop him. Day 3 pick, I'd say 5th.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

11 hours ago, kccrow said:

Yeah, I've been much a fan of one-year wonders either. Burrow would scare the shit out of me as an NFL team. He was terrible before this season and all of a sudden explodes with a perfect supporting cast. If I'm looking at that in the NFL, he's never going to get a perfect supporting cast. So, what is he going to be?

These are my personal "rules" for evaluating a QB:

Statistics
2+ Seasons as Starter
2:1 Career TD:INT Ratio
60%+ Career Completion Percentage w/ no season < 58% in last 2
2 Seasons of at least 20 TDs
20 Minimum Wonderlic
7.0+ Career Y/A
1+ Season of 3,000+ Yards

Prototype
6'2" to 6'5"
220-230 pounds
Can throw outside the numbers with little loft
Can throw at least 50 yards in the air
Shows the ability to process beyond hot read
Can throw with touch on underneath and intermediate throws
Can throw off balance and on the run
Throws in face of pressure
Consistently leads receiver away from the defender
Throws timing routes and trusts his receive to end up at the spot
Mental clock with ball out in 2.5 seconds or less
Commands huddle, directs WRs at LOS
Routinely climbs the pocket instead of bailing out

 

Obviously, any system you develop will have it's outliers but I think if you look for certain things and expect certain things then you will end up right more than you are wrong. Guys like Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky, and Lamar Jackson would not have made my cut list for a variety of reasons.

I haven't poured a ton of time in QBs this year, but first glance guys that make it for me statistically are Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Bryce Perkins, Cole McDonald, and Mason Fine.

Close but not quite: Joe Burrow (<58% in 2018), Jake Fromm (didn't have a 3,000+ yd season) , Shea Patterson (56.2% this year and only 205 lbs), Jacob Eason (<60% career and last season at Georgia didn't really play and both <58%) 

Take that list of statistical guys and cut Mason Fine (5'11" 190 doesn't cut it) and Bryce Perkins (lackluster arm... can't make the throws I want, too much loft deep, throws alot of flutter-balls but he's a guy I'd probably keep my eye on really late as a developmental backup). 

 

So, my list of QBs I'd feel relatively comfortable with in the draft is pretty small...

Tua Tagavailoa - Size a slight concern, injury history a major concern, surrounded by alot of talent. If I were picking #1 overall, I'd take Chase Young. He's just not a guy I would confidently hitch my wagon to in a draft this deep in talent overall. He's a top 10 type in most drafts if medicals checked out but I don't know that he's a certified #1 overall in any draft.

Jordan Love - 2019 wasn't as good as 2018 and probably needs a year to sit, work on reads, learn to play within the process and take what is given and quicken that clock. Late 1 or early 2 for me.

Justin Herbert - Not overly excited about his leadership but he's got what I look for overall, needs more touch underneath and lead his receivers better. Top 15.

Jalen Hurts - A near cut for me with his pocket abilities, he needs to stay home, move up, and take the throws that are there instead of cutting bait. Mid round develpmental.

Cole McDonald - Needs to clean up his release, tighten up spiral, mental clock could be a tad faster, deep ball is a bit hit and miss. Guy I'd draft as a backup though and develop him. Day 3 pick, I'd say 5th.

Had Tua not got hurt regardless if LSU would have still won the NC, I would draft him over Joe if I was the Bengals.  That is definitely not a popular take but I would.    People often times assume that since he's from Alabama that his Oline was incredible but the truth is I don't get all the Jedrick Willis love and the interior Oline was pretty weak.  He was running for his life a lot this last year and his only saving grace was his wr's and Sarkisians play calling.  The other issue is he has had 3 different OC's at Alabama and has thrived under all three.  I know I'm a Bama fan but I'm not ignorant homer either.   Saban is for NCAAF what Coach K is to NCAAB.  They get so much out of their players because they are amazing coaches that you sometimes think they have another gear or another level when you draft them only to find out Saban has gotten more out of their total potential than you expected.  Obviously that isn't always the case (e.g. Julio Jones, Derrick Henry, CJ Mosley, Marlon Humphrey) but go back and look at their draft and you will see the 1st and 2nd round littered with former Crimson Tide players that never can quite take the next step and while they are solid players they weren't drafted to be that.   The only players I would draft from the Tide for the Chiefs are Jeudy and Ruggs.

[Calichief 3,016]

NOT an nfl starter.