Mock Offseason 3/7/20

[kccrow 529]

I haven't graced you folks with a mock offseason in a couple few years. So, here's a good idea of what I'd like to see happen.

Trade DT Chris Jones to the Arizona Cardinals for a 2020 2nd #40, 2020 6th #202, 2021 1st, and OC/G Mason Cole
There's some smoke rising on the potential of Chris Jones landing in Arizona in a trade, although I wouldn't start chiseling the rumor in stone. That said, Arizona has the cap space, the need, and the ammunition to get this done. The Chiefs "should" get a monstrous haul for Jones given his abilities on the field and that was reiterated by Daniel Jeremiah recently in saying that it should be close to what the Raiders received for Khalil Mack. That trade was Mack, a 2nd, and a 5th for two 1sts, a 3rd, and a 6th. The reality is that trade netted the Raiders, approximately, a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in value. In this scenario, I have the Chiefs obtaining approximately the same thing with versatile offensive lineman Mason Cole, a former 3rd round pick who can play Center or Guard, as part of the package.

Trade WR Sammy Watkins to the Chicago Bears for a 2020 5th #163 and 2021 4th
The Bears went after Watkins pretty hard when he was a free agent and they still have a need at WR. With limited draft ammunition (no 1st or 3rd round pick, but two 2nds), the Bears may be just out of reach of one of the draft's better receivers. Watkins is an easy target for them and the Chiefs would probably take anything for him. That said, other teams, such as the Packers who also went after him in FA, could bid for him. The Bears give up day 2 picks in this and in next year's draft, which aligns more closely with what Denver received for Emmanuel Sanders (Sanders and 5th for 3rd and 4th).

Release:
OL Cam Erving - In an option year and his play doesn't warrant retaining him.
P Dustin Colquitt - Increasingly less effective over the past several years, the Chiefs really should have moved on before this contract. Get a younger guy for cheaper.
RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif - Seems to have hit a wall in terms of development after his third season and injuries the past two years just compound the problem. It's time for an upgrade.
SS Daniel Sorensen - Not my favorite choice to cut but he's easy cap relief and certainly has a replaceable skill set, but will miss his reliability and awareness.

Re-Sign:
Veteran Minimum Deals - FS Jordan Lucas, FB Anthony Sherman, TE Blake Bell, OG Stefen Wisniewski, DT Mike Pennel
ERFA Tender - WR Marcus Kemp, OG Andrew Wylie, TE Deon Yelder
QB Matt Moore - 1 year, $3.0 million including $1.5 m signing bonus
CB Kendall Fuller - 3 years, $15.7 million including a $5.1m signing bonus. (sim B. Skrine, N. Roby-Coleman)

Free Agents:
LB Joe Schobert (CLE) - 4 years, $57.0 million with $27.5 m guaranteed including $14.0 m signing bonus (sim M. Jack, D. Jones)
CB Vernon Hargreaves (HOU) - 1 year, $2.0 million including $1.0 m singing bonus (sim B. Breeland, C. Claiborne)
OC/G Graham Glasgow (DET) - 5 years, $55.5 million with $20.0 m guaranteed including $11.5 m signing bonus (sim M. Morse, G. Jackson, T. Turner, R. Saffold)
RB Jordan Howard (PHI) - 2 years, $6.5 million with $4.0 m guaranteed including a $2.0 m signing bonus (sim J. Richard, C. Thompson)

Chiefs Draft:
1-032 CB A.J. Terrell, Clemson (6'1" 195)
It's time for Kansas City to adequately address the CB position in the draft after hiding from it since the Marcus Peters selection. The Chiefs have no long-term plan at the position with 4 free agents in 2020 (Fuller, Breeland, Claiborne, Reaser) and another set to hit next year in Charvarius Ward. Terrell is the type of CB I prefer with length to disrupt a large radius, the foot agility to pedal and mirror receivers and the hip looseness to flip and turn with receivers. Terrell is also effective in press and has decent ball skills (albeit not amazing). 

2-040 (f/ARZ) WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (6'0" 205)
The Chiefs losing Watkins would be an enormous blow to their offense in my eyes, and losing Robinson along with him just compounds the issue. While it's likely that Mecole Hardman can step up and make up for some of that production, the Chiefs lack a truly adequate #3 and I have my concerns about Hardman moving from the slot to the outside. Aiyuk is one of my favorite WRs to watch in this class as he's electric with the ball in his hands, turning into a running back and making big plays after the catch. That big after the catch ability is something the Chiefs will have to make up for if they lose Watkins. Aiyuk is similar in just about every way to Watkins physically and can turn those inside slants into big gains. Aiyuk has shown he can beat man coverage. He has excellent hands, is quick to transition, and has a solid catch radius and makes plays in traffic. Explosive release to get on top of DBs early. Excellent punt and kick returner that could help split Hardman's load there.

2-063 (f/SF) DE Alton Robinson, Syracuse (6'3" 264)
Alex Okafor isn't exactly a great DE and Tanoh Kpassagnon is a free agent after this season, so I have DE rated much higher on my list of needs than most. I'd love to re-sign Emmanuel Ogbah but his play warrants a decent contract at least in line with Okafor's. In any event, I really like Alton Robinson as a player. He has the size of Frank Clark but the athletic profile of Yannick Ngakoue or Ryan Kerrigan. If he turns into any of those, that's a pretty good player. The traits that most impress me are his snap quickness, his ability to bend on the edge, and his speed-to-power transition. To me, those are the most important traits for an edge to have. He lacks great hand usage, but that can be taught, and he needs more discipline maintaining his assignment. I think he saw much more attention in a down senior year, but his junior season could be a barometer for his potential when he had 10 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss.

3-096 DT DaVon Hamiltion, Ohio State (6'4" 320)
If the Chiefs let go of Chris Jones, they are going to need to add a defensive tackle and preferably one that can push the pocket and be disruptive. Hamilton took a while to be a factor for Ohio State with all of the defensive line talent they've fielded the past several years. When Hamilton finally got his chance, he was very productive but there are obvious concerns about the amount of talent he got to play with, including the draft's best player in Chase Young. Hamilton is long, stout, and has an excellent get-off and overall quickness to push the pocket immediately. He's effective taking on double-teams and sliding down the line to maintain assignment. Has good technique and bend to disengage and the burst to close.

4-135 TE Dalton Keene, Virginia Tech (6'4" 253)
I think it's imperative the Chiefs add to their TE group this offseason. If an injury happened, the current impact of losing Kelce would be enormous if the best option on the roster is Blake Bell. The Chiefs really need better insurance for him and some glimmer of hope should anything happen. Keene is a solid TE prospect with adequate size and athletic traits, including enough to threaten in the seam. He's a good receiver and puts a lot of effort into blocking, and is great doing so in space. He needs work as a route runner to gain more immediate separation underneath. He doesn't appear to ever be a full-time #1 guy at this point unless he can add some mass but he's going to be a solid move player that can create mismatches in 2 TE sets and fill in the #1 role if needed. Appeared slightly bigger at the combine than he did throughout the season. He still needs to add at least 12 pounds and thicken up a bit.

5-163 (f/CHI) SS K'Von Wallace, Clemson (5'11" 208)
Letting go of Dan Sorensen would be a big blow unless you can find a way to replace that skill set. Wallace is a Swiss-Army Knife kind of safety that can come down in the box, play the slot, and play deep. He has sneaky, underrated, speed and was a reliable player in Clemson's defense. Wallace actually is very much like Tyrann Mathieu in a lot of respects with how well he's able to create issues underneath and his tackling ability. Sorensen was a similar player with more linebacker in his game than defensive back. I think the Chiefs will continue to add versatile players on the back end that can allow them to mask coverages and assignments.

5-177 OL Tyre Phillips, Mississippi State (6'5" 331)
The Chiefs will need to look at continuing the influx of players on the offensive line and especially on the interior. Phillips played left tackle at MSU but doesn't have the athleticism to do it in the pros. He may get a shot as a RT, but even then I see him as a liability in pass sets against NFL edge talent. Ideally, he becomes a brick wall at LG where his tremendous size, power, and length will be an advantage. He has good foot transitions for inside zone pulling, trapping, and down blocks and effectively climbs to 2nd level blocks. Defenders will have trouble getting around him on the interior with 35 inch arms to go with a massive frame. Able to pound it in the run game with the ability to drive defenders out of the gap and finish his blocks. There's not much not to like with Phillps providing a team takes the time, moves him inside, and works on his pass slide and hand placement. Could be a quick starter.

6-202 (f/ARZ) LB Mykal Walker, Fresno State (6'3" 230)
The Chiefs need to continue to find talent at LB in whatever ways they can. I really like Walker and view him as a piece of yet to be molded clay. Lance Zierlein gives him a less than glowing review, calling his movements "segmented." I tend to disagree and see a lot of athleticism in Walker. What Zeirlein forgets to mention is that Walker played DE until this year when he was moved to MLB, then transitioned back and forth to DE because of injury. The whole story is that you have this great athlete that was asked to play two very different positions and he was a bit unsure of things at LB. I felt like Walker was very good when asked to come downhill but his confidence waned in terms of assignment as he moved further off the line. With his first step quickness, ability to sift through trash, and tackling ability he has a spot developing as a SAM in a 4-3. He'll need to continue to learn play recognition, get better at shedding blocks, and become consistent in zone coverage, but he has shown he's a team player and willing to learn.

What this offseason does is attack every level on both sides of the ball with an injection of youth. Check the following boxes: Add young veteran RB, add rookie playmaker WR to offset losses, add receiving TE to develop, add youth and skill on IOL, add a young pass rusher, account for loss of Jones with young penetrating DT, add a stud LB and some youth, add a young CB and restock, add a young safety.

Roster:
QB: P. Mahomes, M. Moore, K. Shurmur
RB: Dam. Williams, J. Howard, Dar. Williams, D. Thompson
FB: A. Sherman
WR: T. Hill, M. Hardman, B. Aiyuk, B. Pringle, F. Davis, M. Kemp
TE: T. Kelce, D. Keene, B. Bell, D. Yelder
OL: E. Fisher, M. Rankin, M. Cole, G. Glasgow, M. Schwartz, A. Reiter, A. Wylie, N. Allegretti, T. Phillips, J. Barton
DE: F. Clark, A. Okafor, T. Kpassagnon, A. Robinson, D. Harris, T. Ward
DT: D. Nnadi, K. Saunders, D. Hamilton, M. Pennel, B. Speaks
LB: D. Wilson, A. Hitchens, J. Schobert, B. Niemann, M. Walker, D. O'Daniel
CB: C. Ward, A. Terrell, K. Fuller, V. Hargreaves, R. Fenton
S: T. Mathieu, J. Thornhill, K. Wallace, J. Lucas, A. Watts
ST: Butker, Some UDFA Punter, Winchester.
 

[jetlord 10,207]

Thanks, Crow.  You obviously put some thought into this and it looks pretty good.  Not disagreeing, but to play devil's advocate, let me ask a few questions about your plan.  What is the total cost of the resignings and FAs?  Why do the Chiefs need four TEs?  Isn't the fifth round a little late to find some long term answers for the IOL?   Of course, the key question is whether the trades you have listed for Jones and Watkins are realistic.  I don't see Watkins as being worth that much to other teams.  He hasn't proven to be reliable for the whole season and his price is high for a #2.  The Jones deal seems a pretty steep price for IDL.  Mack was an edge rusher and they are valued higher.  Isn't your final roster a bit large?

Anyway, good job and food for thought for us GM junkies. 

[kkuenn 3,597]

Well he has us getting Mason Cole in the Jones trade and also signing Glasgow in FA.  So a 5th for development is not bad to keep the pipeline going for IOL.

[jetlord 10,207]

20 minutes ago, kkuenn said:

Well he has us getting Mason Cole in the Jones trade and also signing Glasgow in FA.  So a 5th for development is not bad to keep the pipeline going for IOL.

True, but Glasgow comes at a price of $11,000,000/year.  Don't know the cost of Cole.  Isn't it better to build with players on rookie contracts?  Otherwise, the Chiefs are trading one set of cap problems for another.  The new CBA, if passed, may change everything but right now the Chiefs need cap room to ink Mahomes for the long term future.  Fisher and Schwartz have only two more years on their contracts.  I believe the Chiefs have to find at least one starting quality IOL this year and another O-line next year in the draft.  Maybe Phillips is that guy, but I'd aim higher. 

[kkuenn 3,597]

39 minutes ago, jetlord said:

True, but Glasgow comes at a price of $11,000,000/year.  Don't know the cost of Cole.  Isn't it better to build with players on rookie contracts?  Otherwise, the Chiefs are trading one set of cap problems for another.  The new CBA, if passed, may change everything but right now the Chiefs need cap room to ink Mahomes for the long term future.  Fisher and Schwartz have only two more years on their contracts.  I believe the Chiefs have to find at least one starting quality IOL this year and another O-line next year in the draft.  Maybe Phillips is that guy, but I'd aim higher. 

Well you do those cuts and trades you save millions. I had the below cuts in another thread and 11 million would not be a problem. Plus you fix the line for years to come and get those draft picks for the Jones trade which are cheap too. If we can get a haul like this for Jones I would do it.

 

Cuts:

 

Sammy Watkins 14 mil

Cam Erving 3.2 mil

Austin Reiter 3.4 mil

LDT 5 mil

 

This is 25 million alone. Possible Sorensen restructure or cuts too along with what we have in cap space now which is 13 million I believe. You could easily get almost 40 million plus in cap and have all those picks plus FA to go.  Just my opinion. I am happy if we keep Jones and would be happy with a haul of picks and player if traded.

[kkuenn 3,597]

40 minutes ago, jetlord said:

True, but Glasgow comes at a price of $11,000,000/year.  Don't know the cost of Cole.  Isn't it better to build with players on rookie contracts?  Otherwise, the Chiefs are trading one set of cap problems for another.  The new CBA, if passed, may change everything but right now the Chiefs need cap room to ink Mahomes for the long term future.  Fisher and Schwartz have only two more years on their contracts.  I believe the Chiefs have to find at least one starting quality IOL this year and another O-line next year in the draft.  Maybe Phillips is that guy, but I'd aim higher. 

Well you do those cuts and trades you save millions. I had the below cuts in another thread and 11 million would not be a problem. Plus you fix the line for years to come and get those draft picks for the Jones trade which are cheap too. If we can get a haul like this for Jones I would do it.

 

Cuts:

 

Sammy Watkins 14 mil

Cam Erving 3.2 mil

Austin Reiter 3.4 mil

LDT 5 mil

 

This is 25 million alone. Possible Sorensen restructure or cuts too along with what we have in cap space now which is 13 million I believe. You could easily get almost 40 million plus in cap and have all those picks plus FA to go.  Just my opinion. I am happy if we keep Jones and would be happy with a haul of picks and player if traded.

[kccrow 529]

3 hours ago, jetlord said:

Thanks, Crow.  You obviously put some thought into this and it looks pretty good.  Not disagreeing, but to play devil's advocate, let me ask a few questions about your plan.  What is the total cost of the resignings and FAs?  Why do the Chiefs need four TEs?  Isn't the fifth round a little late to find some long term answers for the IOL?   Of course, the key question is whether the trades you have listed for Jones and Watkins are realistic.  I don't see Watkins as being worth that much to other teams.  He hasn't proven to be reliable for the whole season and his price is high for a #2.  The Jones deal seems a pretty steep price for IDL.  Mack was an edge rusher and they are valued higher.  Isn't your final roster a bit large?

Anyway, good job and food for thought for us GM junkies. 

I did not trim the roster to 53. It's missing some for a complete roster but these are guys that were either on the roster for the SB, I expect to compete for a spot, or added in FA.

I addressed IOL with two guys that can play Center and either Guard spot by trading for Mason Cole and adding Graham Glasgow in FA, so I don't emphasize IOL in the draft no. Rankin, Wylie, Allegretti, and the rookie I drafted Phillips, should all compete for a spot. Honestly, I wouldn't change much if I couldn't get Cole in trade. I think Rankin and Wylie are solid enough and getting a good push from Allegretti and a rookie would satisfy me if they land a pivot like Glasgow.

Are the trades realistic? That's always the concern, right? From what I'm hearing, guys think Jones will command a haul and that KC would be stupid to trade him if there isn't. I think a 1st and a day 2 pick is a minimum. I don't think you ask for nor take less than that. Does it have to be a #2? No. It could be a 1, 3, and player or just a 1 and 3. I'm erring on the high side here given I tend to underrate compensation a lot. I think it's safe to say that teams are going to bid on Jones heavily. And, I really don't think teams value a stud interior pass rusher any less than an edge, especially in certain schemes. Arizona runs a 3-4 base, so Jones would be a DE again in that alignment where he had 15.5 sacks just a year ago. I'm not sure the trade is overvalued by much if it is.

Watkins for a 4th and 5th is a relative steal. You're not getting a WR in the draft with his skill set with those picks, or at least it's extremely unlikely. The injury history is the reason I don't value him higher than Emmanuel Sanders, I value him less. Sanders was 31 years old and on the decline and gathered a 3rd and 4th. Watkins is 26. That's a big difference in age and Watkins will be in his prime for at least 4 more years. The real question isn't the value per se, at least for me, its whether teams want to wait and bid on him if cut, or are they willing to give up day 3 picks to get him for sure?

And sure, I can tell you how things shake out financially in this scenario but I saved the longest for last.

By trading Watkins and making the cuts, you get to space of $40.14 million

Contracts are considered at the following 1st-year hits, estimated based on contracts these players should get if similar to ones I outlined:

RB Jordan Howard $3.05
OC Graham Glasgow $9.25
OL Mason Cole $887k (he has 2 years left on his rookie deal)
CB Kendall Fuller $2.80
CB Vernon Hargreaves $2.00
LB Joe Schobert $12.25
QB Matt Moore $3.00
DT Mike Pennel $885k counts as $725k
OL Stefen Wisniewski $1.01 counts as $725k
TE Blake Bell $885k counts as $725k
FB Anthony Sherman $1.01 counts as $725k
FS Jordan Lucas $885k counts as $725k
OG Andrew Wylie $660k
TE Deon Yelder $660k
WR Marcus Kemp $660k

This totals cap hits of $38.84 million which leaves $1.30 million

You then have the following come off the cap cost because they are pushed from top-51:
RB Darwin Thompson, LG Nick Allegretti, LT Jackson Barton, LB Darius Harris, DE Tim Ward, WR Byron Pringle, OL Ryan Hunter, CB Alex Brown, WR Gehrig Deiter, CB Chris Lammons, QB John Lovett, WR Felton Davis, RB Marcus Marshall, and DE Braxton Hoyett

This accounts for $7.99 million leaving real cap space at $9.29 million

The Draft class first year hits
32 - $2,103,733
40 - 1,490,254
63 - 918,978
96 - 758,611
135 - 696,167
163 - 601,179
177 - 587,381
202 - 559,080

The real cost will be Picks 32 through 135 (all others would not be top-51 contract values) and total $5.97 million. This will push the following players out of top 51: OT Greg Senat, RB Elijah McGuire, DT Devaroe Lawrence, CB Charvarius Ward, and CB Rashad Fenton which totals $3.27 millon.

This leaves an effective cap charge of $2.70m and leave cap space at $6.60m ($6,599,107 to be exact).

[Lamardirts 2,114]

On 3/7/2020 at 5:42 PM, kccrow said:

I did not trim the roster to 53. It's missing some for a complete roster but these are guys that were either on the roster for the SB, I expect to compete for a spot, or added in FA.

I addressed IOL with two guys that can play Center and either Guard spot by trading for Mason Cole and adding Graham Glasgow in FA, so I don't emphasize IOL in the draft no. Rankin, Wylie, Allegretti, and the rookie I drafted Phillips, should all compete for a spot. Honestly, I wouldn't change much if I couldn't get Cole in trade. I think Rankin and Wylie are solid enough and getting a good push from Allegretti and a rookie would satisfy me if they land a pivot like Glasgow.

Are the trades realistic? That's always the concern, right? From what I'm hearing, guys think Jones will command a haul and that KC would be stupid to trade him if there isn't. I think a 1st and a day 2 pick is a minimum. I don't think you ask for nor take less than that. Does it have to be a #2? No. It could be a 1, 3, and player or just a 1 and 3. I'm erring on the high side here given I tend to underrate compensation a lot. I think it's safe to say that teams are going to bid on Jones heavily. And, I really don't think teams value a stud interior pass rusher any less than an edge, especially in certain schemes. Arizona runs a 3-4 base, so Jones would be a DE again in that alignment where he had 15.5 sacks just a year ago. I'm not sure the trade is overvalued by much if it is.

Watkins for a 4th and 5th is a relative steal. You're not getting a WR in the draft with his skill set with those picks, or at least it's extremely unlikely. The injury history is the reason I don't value him higher than Emmanuel Sanders, I value him less. Sanders was 31 years old and on the decline and gathered a 3rd and 4th. Watkins is 26. That's a big difference in age and Watkins will be in his prime for at least 4 more years. The real question isn't the value per se, at least for me, its whether teams want to wait and bid on him if cut, or are they willing to give up day 3 picks to get him for sure?

And sure, I can tell you how things shake out financially in this scenario but I saved the longest for last.

By trading Watkins and making the cuts, you get to space of $40.14 million

Contracts are considered at the following 1st-year hits, estimated based on contracts these players should get if similar to ones I outlined:

RB Jordan Howard $3.05
OC Graham Glasgow $9.25
OL Mason Cole $887k (he has 2 years left on his rookie deal)
CB Kendall Fuller $2.80
CB Vernon Hargreaves $2.00
LB Joe Schobert $12.25
QB Matt Moore $3.00
DT Mike Pennel $885k counts as $725k
OL Stefen Wisniewski $1.01 counts as $725k
TE Blake Bell $885k counts as $725k
FB Anthony Sherman $1.01 counts as $725k
FS Jordan Lucas $885k counts as $725k
OG Andrew Wylie $660k
TE Deon Yelder $660k
WR Marcus Kemp $660k

This totals cap hits of $38.84 million which leaves $1.30 million

You then have the following come off the cap cost because they are pushed from top-51:
RB Darwin Thompson, LG Nick Allegretti, LT Jackson Barton, LB Darius Harris, DE Tim Ward, WR Byron Pringle, OL Ryan Hunter, CB Alex Brown, WR Gehrig Deiter, CB Chris Lammons, QB John Lovett, WR Felton Davis, RB Marcus Marshall, and DE Braxton Hoyett

This accounts for $7.99 million leaving real cap space at $9.29 million

The Draft class first year hits
32 - $2,103,733
40 - 1,490,254
63 - 918,978
96 - 758,611
135 - 696,167
163 - 601,179
177 - 587,381
202 - 559,080

The real cost will be Picks 32 through 135 (all others would not be top-51 contract values) and total $5.97 million. This will push the following players out of top 51: OT Greg Senat, RB Elijah McGuire, DT Devaroe Lawrence, CB Charvarius Ward, and CB Rashad Fenton which totals $3.27 millon.

This leaves an effective cap charge of $2.70m and leave cap space at $6.60m ($6,599,107 to be exact).

Delayed gratification would stink by not getting that first this year but I think a haul like that even if it didn't include Cole would be hard to pass up.   

With Kirksey getting cut this weekend we could upgrade a LB spot on a 1 year prove it deal like some talking heads are assuming he will do and what better place to do that then for a team with a poor LB corp and legit SB aspirations.   He's been injury prone but he would upgrade our LB corp in a huge way and wouldn't break the bank.