2020 NFL Free Agency Thread

[xen 1,010,220]

1 hour ago, kccrow said:

I put, literally, zero credence in PFF. If you're relying on them, you're talking to the wrong guy. 

I literally addressed that in my post.  It doesn't matter what analytics you use or which analysts you like they all think CJ is the much better pass rusher.  You're putting way to much stock in run stopping, and the NFL already settled that debate with money.

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

27 minutes ago, kccrow said:

Jones is a little better pass rusher and he's quicker off the initial snap. I said he's a slightly better pass rusher in the original post I made. His snap quickness is supported by the better 10-yard split he had at the combine over Buckner. However, Jones is not better athletically in just about every other measurable. They are pretty neck-and-neck.

Buckner gets pressure, hits on the QB, and sacks and he does so at rates that aren't that much less than Jones regardless of whether some British guys think he does so as a result of "cleanup activity." Regardless, if I'm in a pass-rushing situation, I want Jones.

All that said, Jones still pales in comparison to Buckner in run support. Statistics support it, the eyeball test more than supports it. Jones, in run support, isn't very good. He routinely loses gap integrity and is out of position and produces tackles at half the rate of Buckner. This is what makes Buckner such a more complete player. If I were to choose between the two players, I'd take Buckner for this simple reason. He's far superior in run defense and still produces pressure in the passing game.

For those that want to say Buckner had a better supporting cast, I call horseshit. When has Jones ever not had great edge rushers around him? Houston, Hali, Ford, and Clark all must be dog shit.

I don't dislike Jones and I like him here but I'm also one to give credit where it's due, and Buckner is a damned good player. 

Fair enough, i consider the initial burst component about 95% of the players value, seems like we agree on the traits just value them differently.

i prefer to pay for pass rush burst on the interior d line and look for cheap run stuffers on the d ends.

most people are the opposite and want cheap run stuff fatties on the interior and dee fords on the edge.

of course the buckners of the world can do both and ideally you want that but its pretty rare

[kccrow 529]

7 hours ago, xen said:

I literally addressed that in my post.  It doesn't matter what analytics you use or which analysts you like they all think CJ is the much better pass rusher.  You're putting way to much stock in run stopping, and the NFL already settled that debate with money.

They settled the debate when they gave Buckner 21 million per? 

He's not "much better," but I'd give him marginally better. When you do factor in the other half of a DTs job (stopping the run), Buckner has CJ trumped. There is no liability in his game. 

[kkuenn 3,599]

26. Miami Dolphins (from Houston Texans)

Trade with Kansas City Chiefs

Dolphins get: DT Chris Jones, 4-132
Chiefs get: 1-26

The Dolphins spent millions to improve their defense this offseason, but the pass-rushers they imported were guys like Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah. Both have upside, but neither is a star. Jones is, and the Dolphins have both the cap space and the draft capital to get a deal done.

He would head directly into the starting lineup alongside 2019 first-rounder Christian Wilkins and give Miami one of the league's best interior disruptors. Jones has 24.5 sacks and 49 knockdowns over the past two seasons, and at age 25, his best days are still ahead of him. The Chiefs will miss Jones, but if they don't want to pay the Mississippi State product, this is fair value.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Trade with Los Angeles Chargers

Chiefs get: 2-37, 2020 fourth-round pick, G Forrest Lamp
Chargers get: 1-32

The Super Bowl champs don't need much; their weakest spot is along the interior of the offensive line, but that's a spot in which Andy Reid typically trusts his coaching staff to mold midround picks and castoffs from other teams into starters. The Chiefs can trade down and potentially do both this offseason, as they would have two second-rounders while adding a former top-40 pick in Lamp, who has been limited to nine games over three seasons with the Chargers due to injuries.

The Chargers could move up to secure a fifth-year option on a player they like, and if they don't draft a quarterback early, this could be an attempt to get ahead of the Colts at No. 34 if somebody falls to the bottom of Round 1.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2020/story/_/id/29018757/2020-nfl-mock-draft-all-trades-32-picks-32-trades-bill-barnwell

[kkuenn 3,599]

There is no way would I trade Jones and give them a pick (4th rounder) too for the 26th pick.

[Wolfscall 204]

There is also no way I see the Chiefs trading away their first pick to the sparklers.

[Palangi 788]

8 hours ago, kccrow said:

They settled the debate when they gave Buckner 21 million per? 

He's not "much better," but I'd give him marginally better. When you do factor in the other half of a DTs job (stopping the run), Buckner has CJ trumped. There is no liability in his game. 

Really because some team gives out a big contract that settles it?  Well hell I guess Kirk cousins is the best QB in the NFL.

That settles that debate 

[Balto 723]

3 minutes ago, Palangi said:

Really because some team gives out a big contract that settles it?  Well hell I guess Kirk cousins is the best QB in the NFL.

That settles that debate 

Kccrow BURNED

[sith13 1,746]

I would be fine moving down 5 spots if we actually got a starting caliber OG in the process and a 4th. Takes away a major need while bringing in an extra pick. However Lamp is likely worthless.

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

I love lamp

[jetlord 10,209]

8 minutes ago, sith13 said:

I would be fine moving down 5 spots if we actually got a starting caliber OG in the process and a 4th. Takes away a major need while bringing in an extra pick. However Lamp is likely worthless.

An early and late second should yield the Chiefs a starting CB and starting IOL.  Hall and Hunt, for example, or Ruiz and Johnson.  Only reason I can see for the Chiefs to hang on to #32 is if a Murray, Queen, or Baun drop. 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

15 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

I love lamp

Brick killed a guy...

[Adamixoye 604]

Just now, Iluvhouse24 said:

Brick killed a guy...

Boy, that escalated quickly.

[xen 1,010,220]

11 hours ago, kccrow said:

They settled the debate when they gave Buckner 21 million per? 

He's not "much better," but I'd give him marginally better. When you do factor in the other half of a DTs job (stopping the run), Buckner has CJ trumped. There is no liability in his game. 

Just shows how desperate teams are for interior pass rush.  They're not desperate for run stoppers, they're a dime a dozen.  Just because Buckner is a good pass rusher does not mean he is on CJ's, Cox's or Donald's level.  He's not.

[Balto 723]

1 hour ago, xen said:

Just shows how desperate teams are for interior pass rush.  They're not desperate for run stoppers, they're a dime a dozen.  Just because Buckner is a good pass rusher does not mean he is on CJ's, Cox's or Donald's level.  He's not.

Gotta agree...

 

"In the last two seasons, Jones has a 14.0% pressure rate and a 2.7% sack rate. Buckner has a 10.2% pressure rate and a 2.0% sack rate. Cox has a 13.4% pressure rate and a 1.3% sack rate. Donald has a 16.0% pressure rate and a 3.0% sack rate. Donald is well on pace to be the greatest defensive tackle in football history, and Jones is closer to Donald than any other interior defender in football."

Jones was also doubled on nearly 70% of passing plays which was more than any player in the NFL!

[Adamixoye 604]

I know this has been said a little but I will also argue that interior pass rush is more valuable than run defense.  Not everything is symmetric.  In the NBA pundits like to talk about the best "two-way" player, meaning the player that is best at both offense and defense, but the fact of the matter is that both traditional and advanced metrics tell us that individual offense and defense are not weighted equally when it comes to team success.  A player like James Harden who is brilliant on offense and mediocre to awful on defense will also be more valuable than the inverse, someone like Tony Allen.  There are a lot of reasons for this.

It's the same with someone like Stone Cold, the disruption he brings in the passing game is far more valuable than any deficiencies in his run defense - and I'm not conceding that he's "bad" against the run.  If Player X is an A+ pass rusher and a B- run defender, and Player Y is a B- pass rusher but an A+ run defender, Player X is the better player hands down.

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

Another thing I like to think about is this. What nfl team is going to out pass mahomes and the rest of the kc offense. Answer none.

therefore, it makes logical sense to put almost all defensive efforts into stopping the run.

can’t be run on + can’t be out passed = win

of course there should be some semblance of balance but that is a winning formula 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

14 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

Another thing I like to think about is this. What nfl team is going to out pass mahomes and the rest of the kc offense. Answer none.

therefore, it makes logical sense to put almost all defensive efforts into stopping the run.

can’t be run on + can’t be out passed = win

of course there should be some semblance of balance but that is a winning formula 

I would think the fact that we are always gonna put up points means opponents are usually gonna be playing from behind or at least be passing to keep pace. So why does it make sense to put all defensive efforts into stopping the run?

[Adamixoye 604]

6 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

Another thing I like to think about is this. What nfl team is going to out pass mahomes and the rest of the kc offense. Answer none.

therefore, it makes logical sense to put almost all defensive efforts into stopping the run.

can’t be run on + can’t be out passed = win

of course there should be some semblance of balance but that is a winning formula 

All of modern analytics says this is wrong for multiple reasons.  One is that run defense is not as stable (predictive) as pass defense.  Another is that passing offense is higher variance than running offense.  Hence, when we get a lead if we can stop the pass that's better than being able to stop the run.  There are other reasons.

But if you don't buy into modern analytics you only have to look at our own history.  Let's look at the 8 losses with Mahomes starting at QB:

• 2018:  @ NE, @ LAR, vs. SD, @ SD, vs. NE - we lost all of these due to bad defense all around, but in particular not being able to stop the pass.
• 2019:  vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ TEN - the common narrative is that we lost these due to the other teams running all over us.  We did play poor run defense in all three games, but Mahomes aggravated his injury in the first two and was just coming off of his injury in the third.  Also, turnovers and miscues played a huge part in the Texans and Titans games, as did their passing games.  The Titans carved us up through the air to take the lead, not the ground.

So by my count, we lost 5 games by the pass when Mahomes was healthy, and then when he was injured or just coming back from it we lost one by the run and two for a mix of debatable reasons.

[Adamixoye 604]

1 minute ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I would think the fact that we are always gonna put up points means opponents are usually gonna be playing from behind or at least be passing to keep pace. So why does it make sense to put all defensive efforts into stopping the run?

It doesn't.

[xen 1,010,220]

3 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

I know this has been said a little but I will also argue that interior pass rush is more valuable than run defense.  Not everything is symmetric.  In the NBA pundits like to talk about the best "two-way" player, meaning the player that is best at both offense and defense, but the fact of the matter is that both traditional and advanced metrics tell us that individual offense and defense are not weighted equally when it comes to team success.  A player like James Harden who is brilliant on offense and mediocre to awful on defense will also be more valuable than the inverse, someone like Tony Allen.  There are a lot of reasons for this.

It's the same with someone like Stone Cold, the disruption he brings in the passing game is far more valuable than any deficiencies in his run defense - and I'm not conceding that he's "bad" against the run.  If Player X is an A+ pass rusher and a B- run defender, and Player Y is a B- pass rusher but an A+ run defender, Player X is the better player hands down.

Excellent post.

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

1 hour ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I would think the fact that we are always gonna put up points means opponents are usually gonna be playing from behind or at least be passing to keep pace. So why does it make sense to put all defensive efforts into stopping the run?

What your saying makes sense, but the only times this year i was remotely worried about losing was when baltimore, tenn, and San Francisco where able to control the clock.

fact is when we let pennel play and plug the run we were basically unbeatable.

as long as mahomes is able to have possession of the ball i think we win, clock control = win. Sometimes gotta go by your gut and eyeball test vs analytics. 

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

1 hour ago, Adamixoye said:

All of modern analytics says this is wrong for multiple reasons.  One is that run defense is not as stable (predictive) as pass defense.  Another is that passing offense is higher variance than running offense.  Hence, when we get a lead if we can stop the pass that's better than being able to stop the run.  There are other reasons.

But if you don't buy into modern analytics you only have to look at our own history.  Let's look at the 8 losses with Mahomes starting at QB:

• 2018:  @ NE, @ LAR, vs. SD, @ SD, vs. NE - we lost all of these due to bad defense all around, but in particular not being able to stop the pass.
• 2019:  vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ TEN - the common narrative is that we lost these due to the other teams running all over us.  We did play poor run defense in all three games, but Mahomes aggravated his injury in the first two and was just coming off of his injury in the third.  Also, turnovers and miscues played a huge part in the Texans and Titans games, as did their passing games.  The Titans carved us up through the air to take the lead, not the ground.

So by my count, we lost 5 games by the pass when Mahomes was healthy, and then when he was injured or just coming back from it we lost one by the run and two for a mix of debatable reasons.

Excellent post. Of course you could go the peyton manning colts route and put all resources into pass defense, but i would argue they massively underachieved.

i just feel like the formula is stop run and hope chris jones and honey badger make a play here and there in the pass game along with the other team making self mistakes. Thats why not being able to retain jones blows so hard.

chiefs already made a huge upgrade in stuffing the run going to frank clark instead of dee ford and signing pennel. Justin houston to okafor is basically a wash.

again what your saying is correct, but my personal feeling is as long as the chiefs win or break even in time of possession they win.

[xen 1,010,220]

42 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

Excellent post. Of course you could go the peyton manning colts route and put all resources into pass defense, but i would argue they massively underachieved.

i just feel like the formula is stop run and hope chris jones and honey badger make a play here and there in the pass game along with the other team making self mistakes. Thats why not being able to retain jones blows so hard.

chiefs already made a huge upgrade in stuffing the run going to frank clark instead of dee ford and signing pennel. Justin houston to okafor is basically a wash.

again what your saying is correct, but my personal feeling is as long as the chiefs win or break even in time of possession they win.

Time of possession is massively overrated for us.  Points per play would matter much more.

In fact, Kansas City is the poster child for this.  In 2019 we were 19th overall and dead last at home in time of possession... and won the Superbowl.  Didn't seem to hold us back.

Guess who was first in points per play?

[Adamixoye 604]

28 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

Excellent post. Of course you could go the peyton manning colts route and put all resources into pass defense, but i would argue they massively underachieved.

i just feel like the formula is stop run and hope chris jones and honey badger make a play here and there in the pass game along with the other team making self mistakes. Thats why not being able to retain jones blows so hard.

chiefs already made a huge upgrade in stuffing the run going to frank clark instead of dee ford and signing pennel. Justin houston to okafor is basically a wash.

again what your saying is correct, but my personal feeling is as long as the chiefs win or break even in time of possession they win.

There is plenty of information out there on how time of possession doesn't mean what pundits have traditionally claimed it to mean, and I've debated it on these boards before.  Our best TOP game was the regular season Tennessee loss.  Yes, two of our worst TOP games with the Colts and Texans losses, but as I said before there were other issues.  What was really going on was our offense stagnated with the Mahomes injuries, turnovers, etc.

I'd slightly modify what xen said to say that the issue is points per drive (not per play), not TOP.  If we're scoring more points per drive than we're giving up, then we're going to win a lot of games.  But just winning TOP has no guarantee of actually resulting in winning games.

To go back to the issue of run vs. pass defense, no one is saying run defense doesn't matter at all.  Just that it's overrated.  Again, if I can be an A in one area and a C in another, give me an A in pass defense and a C in run defense every single time rather than the inverse.