2020 NFL Free Agency Thread

[Wolfscall 204]

8 hours ago, jetlord said:

An early and late second should yield the Chiefs a starting CB and starting IOL.  Hall and Hunt, for example, or Ruiz and Johnson.  Only reason I can see for the Chiefs to hang on to #32 is if a Murray, Queen, or Baun drop. 

I'm hoping Baun drops, myself. I think he would be a great addition to the defense. 

[xen 1,010,220]

2 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

There is plenty of information out there on how time of possession doesn't mean what pundits have traditionally claimed it to mean, and I've debated it on these boards before.  Our best TOP game was the regular season Tennessee loss.  Yes, two of our worst TOP games with the Colts and Texans losses, but as I said before there were other issues.  What was really going on was our offense stagnated with the Mahomes injuries, turnovers, etc.

I'd slightly modify what xen said to say that the issue is points per drive (not per play), not TOP.  If we're scoring more points per drive than we're giving up, then we're going to win a lot of games.  But just winning TOP has no guarantee of actually resulting in winning games.

To go back to the issue of run vs. pass defense, no one is saying run defense doesn't matter at all.  Just that it's overrated.  Again, if I can be an A in one area and a C in another, give me an A in pass defense and a C in run defense every single time rather than the inverse.

Points per play is just a more granular version of points per drive and accounts for things like 1 play drives vs 15 play drives.  

[Adamixoye 604]

3 minutes ago, xen said:

Points per play is just a more granular version of points per drive and accounts for things like 1 play drives vs 15 play drives.  

That's not really how the math works.  Points per drive is a much more simple and direct measurement.

[xen 1,010,220]

3 minutes ago, Wolfscall said:

I'm hoping Baun drops, myself. I think he would be a great addition to the defense. 

Yeah I like Baun too.  Heady player.  Would probably need a year to transition to LB but can contribute right away as a sub blitzer and zone defender.  Maybe not though.  He made the transition to LB at the senior bowl look easy.

[xen 1,010,220]

Just now, Adamixoye said:

That's not really how the math works.  Points per drive is a much more simple and direct measurement.

Pretty much the opposite of granular, which is what I said.   None of what I said is incorrect.

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

15 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

There is plenty of information out there on how time of possession doesn't mean what pundits have traditionally claimed it to mean, and I've debated it on these boards before.  Our best TOP game was the regular season Tennessee loss.  Yes, two of our worst TOP games with the Colts and Texans losses, but as I said before there were other issues.  What was really going on was our offense stagnated with the Mahomes injuries, turnovers, etc.

I'd slightly modify what xen said to say that the issue is points per drive (not per play), not TOP.  If we're scoring more points per drive than we're giving up, then we're going to win a lot of games.  But just winning TOP has no guarantee of actually resulting in winning games.

To go back to the issue of run vs. pass defense, no one is saying run defense doesn't matter at all.  Just that it's overrated.  Again, if I can be an A in one area and a C in another, give me an A in pass defense and a C in run defense every single time rather than the inverse.

I guess in reality instead of time of possession what i am referring to is that sinking poop your pants feeling you get when the other team keeps running the ball and mahomes only gets 2 possessions in the first half.

the other inferior team starts to get more confidence at this point and is really the only formula they have for winning.

lots of teams start getting nervous and start pressing at this point and get off their gameplan.

i don’t know the stats for that sinking feeling but you know what i mean.

[Adamixoye 604]

3 minutes ago, xen said:

Pretty much the opposite of granular, which is what I said.   None of what I said is incorrect.

But it doesn't "account" for 1 play drives vs. 15 play drives.  It obscures them.  In this case the granularity is bad.  Points per drive gives you a good sense of efficiency and correlation to games won because each team usually gets a similar number of drives per game.  A 1 play TD drive and a 14 play TD drive give you vastly different points per play values (7 vs. 0.5) that don't tell you much without knowing the aggregate number of plays.  That doesn't necessarily even out nicely, especially over the course of just a single game.

[jetlord 10,209]

1 hour ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

 

lots of teams start getting nervous and start pressing at this point and get off their gameplan.

i don’t know the stats for that sinking feeling but you know what i mean.

Yeah, we saw it on the faces of SFO when the Chiefs converted the 2-3 Jet Chip Wasp play.  They still had a comfortable lead but felt the roof caving in.  

[jetlord 10,209]

4 hours ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I would think the fact that we are always gonna put up points means opponents are usually gonna be playing from behind or at least be passing to keep pace. So why does it make sense to put all defensive efforts into stopping the run?

That doesn't apply to the three playoff wins.  The Chiefs were well behind in all three and much of the reason was that the opponents could run.  Not entirely, but until the Chiefs stopped much of the running, they were in trouble. 

[Palangi 788]

4 hours ago, Wolfscall said:

I'm hoping Baun drops, myself. I think he would be a great addition to the defense. 

An interesting LB might be Jeremy Chinn. A safety from southern Illinois.  Measured in at the combine at 6'3" 221. Put 10 to 15lbs on him and you have a coverage LB. Did 20 reps on thr bench and ran a 4.45 in the forty.  

Could be a WLB and coverage guy in sub packages

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

5 hours ago, Palangi said:

An interesting LB might be Jeremy Chinn. A safety from southern Illinois.  Measured in at the combine at 6'3" 221. Put 10 to 15lbs on him and you have a coverage LB. Did 20 reps on thr bench and ran a 4.45 in the forty.  

Could be a WLB and coverage guy in sub packages

Kid from Clemson fits this profile too. Muse. Although he won't go nearly as high as Chinn and is way more raw.

[xen 1,010,220]

9 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

But it doesn't "account" for 1 play drives vs. 15 play drives.  It obscures them.  In this case the granularity is bad.  Points per drive gives you a good sense of efficiency and correlation to games won because each team usually gets a similar number of drives per game.  A 1 play TD drive and a 14 play TD drive give you vastly different points per play values (7 vs. 0.5) that don't tell you much without knowing the aggregate number of plays.  That doesn't necessarily even out nicely, especially over the course of just a single game.

and points per play doesn't give you the aggregate number of plays?  It's literally baked in.    Btw if you look at the aggregate numbers there's plenty of variance in drives per game (kc dead last btw) just like plays per game.  

As well, that's why you don't look at one game with ppp, too many variables and too much luck involved.  I never suggested you could draw meaning from one game with this stat.

 

[Adamixoye 604]

4 minutes ago, xen said:

and points per play doesn't give you the aggregate number of plays?  It's literally baked in.

Yes I know it's "baked in" but that baking in is what confuses the issue.  Like my example earlier, you could have the points per play rate but you don't necessarily know the total number of plays (unless you have both values used to calculate it), and just the rate is a lot noisier when it comes to telling who is a good or bad offense.

7 minutes ago, xen said:

and points per play doesn't give you the aggregate number of plays?  It's literally baked in.    Btw if you look at the aggregate numbers there's plenty of variance in drives per game (kc dead last btw) just like plays per game.  

As well, that's why you don't look at one game with ppp, too many variables and too much luck involved.  I never suggested you could draw meaning from one game with this stat.

 

Here's the point.  Between per game, per drive, or per play, points per drive is the sweet spot for the best measure of efficiency, either offensive or defensive.  Because teams usually have within +/-1 drive of each other in a given game, points per drive probably tells you who won the game, although that's a little silly and redundant because you could just look at the score.  Season long it tells you who it actually the better offense than points per game because it removes pace of play from the equation.  A team that scores 30 ppg might have a lot of quick strikes and 3-and-outs and a bad defense but score on a smaller % of drives than an efficient, slower-paced and overall offensively team that scores 28 ppg.  Points per play has the same issue, but high points per play offensively doesn't always mean you have the better offense.  Defensively, a team that gets a lot of 3-and-outs and gives up the occasional quick strike could have a similar rate to a bend-then-break defense that gives up a lot of long drive TDs.

To use another basketball analogy, points per possession (or per 100 possessions) is often used because it removes pace of play.  A team might be high scoring because they play fast enough to overcome their inefficiencies.  There might be a lower-scoring, slower-paced team that is much more efficient and is ultimately better on offense.  On the flip side, points per 100 possessions is better than just shooting percentage, because it accounts for 3 point shots and getting to the free throw line.  Even if you take into account those things (which is what "true shooting %" does), points per 100 possessions does a better job of factoring in turnovers and rebounds, which contribute to efficiency.

[jetlord 10,209]

9 hours ago, Palangi said:

An interesting LB might be Jeremy Chinn. A safety from southern Illinois.  Measured in at the combine at 6'3" 221. Put 10 to 15lbs on him and you have a coverage LB. Did 20 reps on thr bench and ran a 4.45 in the forty.  

Could be a WLB and coverage guy in sub packages

I'd like Chinn, but the Chiefs would still need a LB to plug the holes.  There's not enough draft picks to do both without some fancy trading. 

[kkuenn 3,599]

Harris helped us with TE Seals-Jones signing here.

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2020/4/13/21219701/demetrius-harris-comments-led-ricky-seals-jones-to-chiefs

Seals-Jones took the conversations he had with Harris in Cleveland and — in a sense — cross-checked that information with the pitch from Chiefs. The message that general manager Brett Veach and the coaching staff delivered checked out.

“I felt like Kansas City was honest,” added Seals-Jones. “Talking with Demetrius all of the things that he had said previously they had said now in the present. It was like what they said and what he said were not two different things. You got a player who left and still shows respect for that organization and loves that organization. So that gives you a little bit of confidence when you’re going in and talking to another team. And they love Demetrius, so it was perfect and that helped. Then the offense and how they use their 12 personnel (two-tight end sets), it kind of all fit in perfect for me.”

When Seals-Jones entered the league three years ago, he was asked to transition from a college wide receiver to the tight end position — a process he explained he is still going through.

“When I made the switch over, I pretty much just had to pretty much learn a new position and also keep learning — put the extra tools in my toolbox,” h said. “I look at it as I’m still learning the tight end position, and I’m a great route runner and catcher, but I can always be better, so I just come in every day and work on everything as a whole to make my whole game better.”

There are likely not many better guides in the world than Travis Kelce,who Seals-Jones will understudy if he wins the job. Seals-Jones noted that he realizes being Kelce’s backup comes with special teams expectations.

Bell played 50% of the Chiefs’ special teams snaps last season, which will now be somebody else’s duty.

“I’m willing to do whatever to help the team win,” said Seals-Jones. “I played special teams in Arizona and in Cleveland. Special teams is not something that I don’t want to do. If they need me to do it, I’ll do it. I’m cool with special teams. It does not bother me, not one bit.”

Seals-Jones explained that because the Chiefs’ offense is so explosive, it was an easy decision once his agent informed him that they had reached out.

Seals-Jones had the opportunity to play at Arrowhead Stadium in 2018 when he was a member of the Arizona Cardinals. The tight end remembered that November day well.

“Crazy fanbase,” he said. “That fanbase is, I would say, top five in the NFL. Great atmosphere. I’m excited to be a part of it and not against it.”

[ChiefThunder 153]

17 hours ago, xen said:

Yeah I like Baun too.  Heady player.  Would probably need a year to transition to LB but can contribute right away as a sub blitzer and zone defender.  Maybe not though.  He made the transition to LB at the senior bowl look easy.

Baun may drop...he tested positive for something st the combine

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

24 minutes ago, ChiefThunder said:

Baun may drop...he tested positive for something st the combine

Diluted. None of these GMs give a shit about weed.

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

Baun looks like a dee ford esque d end to me, ill pass, give me the okafor types

[Balto 723]

1 hour ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

Diluted. None of these GMs give a shit about weed.

Happy they did back when Justin Houston was a rookie!

[Balto 723]

13 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

Baun looks like a dee ford esque d end to me, ill pass, give me the okafor types

I like Baun BUT would SOOOO much rather grab Queen or Murray

[Biggjliv4 1,292]

Draft can't get here soon enough... have something current that is sports related, resolution on Chris Jones (I believe he stays), and actual picks to talk about and the impact they can have.  

[Palangi 788]

7 hours ago, jetlord said:

I'd like Chinn, but the Chiefs would still need a LB to plug the holes.  There's not enough draft picks to do both without some fancy trading. 

We have plug hole LBs. Hitchens and Wilson.  And Darius Harris who they are high on. 

We need a coverage backer.  Who would have thought losing Ragland would make some lose their mind.  

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

3 hours ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

Baun looks like a dee ford esque d end to me, ill pass, give me the okafor types

He's unique. He has the ability to be an outstanding cover guy, and a guy who can rush the passes. He's not Dee Ford. This guy has the athleticism to play Will.

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

9 minutes ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

He's unique. He has the ability to be an outstanding cover guy, and a guy who can rush the passes. He's not Dee Ford. This guy has the athleticism to play Will.

Rgr that. He looks like a prototypical olb in a 3-4 to me, but in our defense maybe he can play wilsons spot at lb next year. Could be interesting to blitz with out of the wlb position but i dont want him at de permanently 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

26 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

Rgr that. He looks like a prototypical olb in a 3-4 to me, but in our defense maybe he can play wilsons spot at lb next year. Could be interesting to blitz with out of the wlb position but i dont want him at de permanently 

I don't either. Would be an interesting skillet having a guy that could play WILL on first and second and move to rush end on third downs or obvious passing situations. That's a nice chess piece brother.