Mock Offseason 3/26/20

[kccrow 529]

Every time I set out to do a mock draft I want to re-sign Chris Jones and just can't seem to do it. I just don't see the sides coming to an agreement and I really don't think it's the best thing for KC to do IF they can unload him for a relatively high 1st round pick. My guess? Jones signs for 5 years, $107.0 million with $49.25 guaranteed at signing, including a $26.25 m signing bonus with a first-year cap hit of $14.0 million.

That said, I don't think it happens with the Chiefs. This has drug out a way into FA now and you sit here and think that the Chiefs can't really address anything else because of this conundrum. A team that would benefit greatly from the trade and has a solid and reasonable draft position, plus has the cap space, is the New York Jets. I think KC sends him to them for the 11th overall pick and the Chiefs 6th rounder they sent to NY for Lee as a little side prize. Sure it's in the AFC, but I don't see another candidate that makes as much sense. Let's face it, Detroit isn't giving up a 1st this year and the Eagles aren't paying Cox and Jones.

A deal I do think happens is that the Chiefs extend WR Sammy Watkins. I'm guesstimating the contract for 2 years, adding $22.0 million in new money and creating a 3 year, $43.0 m deal with $21.0 m signing bonus and  22.75 million guaranteed. Contract converts $12.0 m of salary to signing bonus and adds another $9.0 m in signing bonus, includes $500,000 per year in per-game roster bonuses in 2021/2022, $250,000 per year in workout bonuses, and base salaries of $1.75, $5.25, and $6.25 million to create cap hits of $16.0, 13.0, and 14.0 m.

To make both deals happen, I think the Chiefs have to look at sending Sorensen, Duvernay-Tardif, and Colquitt packing in some way and I just don't see them wanting to do all of that. I'm really getting a bit impatient with the process this year with so much riding on the future. I WANT TO KNOW BRETT!  

So, moving on and trying to tame my expectations and try to remain relatively realistic...

Free Agent Acquisitions

CB Daryl Worley (LAV, age 25) for 3 years, $27.0 million with $14.5 m guaranteed, including a $10.5 m signing bonus and first-year cap hit of $7.75 m. 
It just seems like snagging a young veteran that's very solid from a division rival is the NFL normal so I go out on a limb here and make this the lone splash of the offseason.

LB Elijah Lee (SF, age 25) for 1 year, vet min contract (roughly $735k)
The Chiefs need to invest something at the WLB spot as insurance against the draft. Lee isn't necessarily "starting material," but he's serviceable in a pinch and should be a vet min guy or close to it.

TE Luke Willson (SEA, age 30) for 2 years, $3.0 million with a $500k signing bonus and a first-year cap hit of $1.25 m. 
I know it's more likely than not that Willson re-ups with Seattle once again but this is a solid veteran guy that can start for you if need be as he proved once again last year. I'd give him a bit of a bump and a bit more security to get him here at a position the Chiefs need to solidify behind Kelce.

CB Javien Elliott (CAR, age 27) for 1 year, $1.57 million with a $250k signing bonus and $500k in per-game roster bonuses.
Elliott has become a nice rotational CB in the league and should definitely get some interest as a nickel with starting ability in a pinch.

This should leave the Chiefs with about $9.6 in cap space.

The Draft

Chiefs trade DT Chris Jones to New York for 1-11 and 6-211 (pre-draft)
1-011 (f/NYJ mt) - DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina (6'5" 324)
With giving up Jones, I think you have to look to replace that pass-rushing presence on the interior. This has been something you've routinely seen when Veach has been heavily involved (Cox, Jones, Jernigan) in terms of identifying guys that can create interior pressure. Kinlaw is an excellent prospect in every way and there's a solid shot he's gone by 11 but I'm taking a stab here and have him available. With KC locking up a CB in free agency, I have them passing on CJ Henderson who would probably be target #2.

Chiefs trade 1-32 to Cleveland for 2-41 and 3-97 (they want to come up and grab Delpit at the end of the round IMO...)
2-041 (f/CLE mt) - DE Julian Okwara, Notre Dame (6'4" 252)
I'm going to say I'm not overly enamored with this kid's overall game but the Chiefs seem very interested and he does get a ton of pressure as a pass rusher. If he can develop against the run and bulk up, Okwara could end up a steal in this draft. Okwara certainly has the year to develop with Okafor and Kpass still on board.

2-063 - (f/SF) LB Logan Wilson, Wyoming (6'2" 241)
It's a bit scary to think about waiting to address what may be the weakest link on the entire roster but I'm not sure the Chiefs are any better off going with the probable guys in round 1. Wilson is a severely underrated linebacker prospect with all the makeup of the next Joe Schobert in how he covers and is a fundamentally sound tackler. Personally, I think he's a better overall prospect than Murray or Queen because I think he has a more complete game but we shall see. He has the prototypical build and fits perfectly with what the Chiefs need at WLB.

3-096 - WR/RB Antonio Gibson, Memphis (6'0" 228)
Ideally, you just call this guy "FLEX ATHLETE" and call it a day. I don't think he's an NFL RB, personally, but he's a guy I think you can put in that spot periodically and get some plays from him. I just don't think he has the experience seeing lanes develop at an NFL level nor does he have a clue in pass protection so you can't trust right away there in any type of full-time role. That said, I think he has tremendous potential as a WR in the NFL and that's where he was able to do a ton of damage for Memphis this year. Certainly, you're getting a player with a ton of untapped potential that flashed big-time playmaking ability but you have little consistency and production to rely on. Has the customary "Andy Reid Gadget Player" moniker written all over him.

3-097 (f/CLE mt) - OL Saahdiq Charles, LSU (6'4" 321)
Charles is a guy that looks the part of an Andy Reid lineman especially with a move inside to guard. Charles moves really well and can reach 2nd level blocks. He's going to have some early struggles with anchoring against the strength he'll see inside, but he has the athletic prowess to get there. I think Charles could sub as a swing tackle if needed.

4-138 - FS K'Von Wallace, Clemson (5'11" 206)
I'm probably higher on Wallace than the pundits are but he's the type of player Spags likes. He's basically a Swiss-Army knife player on the back end in the mold of Honey Badger that allows you a lot of flexibility and is a top-notch replacement caliber guy for Sorensen.

5-177 - CB DeMarcus Acy, Missouri (6'1" 195)
Let me start out by saying that Acy is not the type of CB I personally covet because of his lack of hip fluidity and struggles to break and close on the ball. That said, here's a guy who was productive in the SEC and especially good when things are in front of him from zone and off man looks, plus he's an outstanding tackler in run support as a former safety. That makes it all the more perplexing that he wasn't invited to the Combine, even after his good East-West Shrine game appearance. His profile reads a lot like Reshad Fenton's in most respects but Acy is a tad longer. Basically, Acy fits what Spags and Veach have gone after thus far. 

6-211 (f/NYJ mt) - RB Xavier Jones, Southern Methodist (5'10" 208)
I think if you want to take a wild stab at a young Shady McCoy then you look right at this guy. If it weren't for injuries he'd likely be talked about as a day 2 pick given his production (broke Eric Dickerson's SMU TD record this year by the way) and his shifty running ability. That said, you're taking a shot on a guy that has missed the better part of two seasons with the last one being a knee injury. The seasons flanking those injured ones though are absolute quality and if 2019 was an indicator then he's good to go. Given the Chiefs have scouted Proche at WR, no doubt they also took notice of this guy.

Predicted Roster

QB: P. Mahomes, C. Henne
RB: Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, X. Jones
FB: A. Sherman
WR: T. Hill, S. Watkins, M. Hardman, B. Pringle, A. Gibson, F. Davis
TE: T. Kelce, L. Willson, D. Yelder
OL: E. Fisher, M. Rankin, N. Allegretti, L. Duvernay-Tardif, M. Schwartz, A. Wylie, M. Remmers, S. Charles, A. Reiter
DE: F. Clark, A. Okafor, T. Kpassagnon, J. Okwara, D. Harris
DT: J. Kinlaw, D. Nnadi, K. Saunders, M. Pennel, B. Speaks
LB: D. Wilson, A. Hitchens, L. Wilson, E. Lee, B. Niemann
CB: C. Ward, D. Worley, J. Elliott, R. Fenton, A. Hamilton, D. Acy
S: T. Mathieu, J. Thornhill, D. Sorensen, K. Wallace, A. Watts 
ST: H. Butker, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester.

"Notable" Cuts

LB D. O'Daniel, DE T. Ward,  OT J. Barton, TE J. Forston, WR G. Deiter, TE J. Lovett, RB D. Thompson, QB K. Shurmur

[jetlord 10,207]

If MIA doesn't package it's late first in a deal to move up to #3, would they be candidates for a Jones trade?  Maybe #26 and a fourth?  I'd love to see the Chiefs move ahead of BAL and GB in the first and then trade #32 for an early second and another fourth.  If the Chiefs have a few CBs in sight at #32, they might find some of the same guys at #38 or so.  Veach will surely trade down for more picks considering how many FAs the team may lose. 

[kccrow 529]

I don't think it's a situation where you can wait until the draft to make a move. I'd want more than a 4th if all I'm getting is #26. 

[jetlord 10,207]

24 minutes ago, kccrow said:

I don't think it's a situation where you can wait until the draft to make a move. I'd want more than a 4th if all I'm getting is #26. 

IIRC, Clark was traded to the Chiefs close to the draft so things may still be working on the Jones deal.  A first and fourth would be very good for KC come draft time.  Anything more than that would be gravy. 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

This is pretty outstanding use of quarantine time.

[xen 1,010,219]

16 hours ago, kccrow said:

I don't think it's a situation where you can wait until the draft to make a move. I'd want more than a 4th if all I'm getting is #26. 

Keep him if that's all we can get.  

[jetlord 10,207]

On 3/27/2020 at 12:04 PM, xen said:

Keep him if that's all we can get.  

So you wouldn't trade a guy demanding Aaron Donald money for a starting LB and a fourth round  WR, RB, or other situational player in the top 120?  Just my opinion, but I think the Chiefs would be foolish to pay Jones $21 million/year if they can get a starter out of the draft on a rookie deal plus more.  I'm certainly not a fan of Jones playing on the Tag for a year then going through this all over again next winter.

[xen 1,010,219]

2 hours ago, jetlord said:

So you wouldn't trade a guy demanding Aaron Donald money for a starting LB and a fourth round  WR, RB, or other situational player in the top 120?  Just my opinion, but I think the Chiefs would be foolish to pay Jones $21 million/year if they can get a starter out of the draft on a rookie deal plus more.  I'm certainly not a fan of Jones playing on the Tag for a year then going through this all over again next winter.

It's worth having him play on the tag if we get another superbowl win.  None of the linebackers in this draft are a game changer a la CJ.  Maybe Simmons in the right system.  So no I wouldn't give him away just to trade him.  Besides, what skin off our backs if we do this again next year?  

If they get those tv and gambling deals done teams may have more certainty about how much the CBA will rise and the market may be totally different.  And what if he has a huge year like 2018?   That certainly would not hurt his trade market.

[jetlord 10,207]

1 hour ago, xen said:

It's worth having him play on the tag if we get another superbowl win.  None of the linebackers in this draft are a game changer a la CJ.  Maybe Simmons in the right system.  So no I wouldn't give him away just to trade him.  Besides, what skin off our backs if we do this again next year?  

If they get those tv and gambling deals done teams may have more certainty about how much the CBA will rise and the market may be totally different.  And what if he has a huge year like 2018?   That certainly would not hurt his trade market.

Maybe I don't understand the system, but Jones will be harder to trade next year.  And as I posted somewhere earlier, I'm not a great fan of spending today in the hopes of having more resources down the road.  Jones is a very good player most of the time, but the Chiefs don't need $40 million tied up in the D line.  If trading Jones and his unreasonable demands for a cover LB, resigning Breeland, and restructuring Watkins, I'd go for it in a heartbeat.  The Chiefs don't need another Berry, Houston, Hali type albatross hanging around their necks for the next five years.