1st Round Mock 2.0 (UPDATED FINAL)

[kccrow 529]

1-01 Cincinnati Bengals - QB Joe Burrow, LSU
The Bengals get Ohio native Joe Burrow to fix their long-term needs at QB, unless he pulls an Eli.
1-02 Washington Redskins - DE Chase Young, Ohio State
The Redskins appear to be all-in on Haskins as their future at QB so they lock down the draft's best player and edge in Young.
1-03 Miami Dolphins (f/ DET) - QB Justin Herbert, Oregon (Detroit receives 1-05, 1-26, 2-56)
The Dolphins would likely give up the farm (and they own it) to get to #1 for Burrow but it doesn't seem likely at this point that Cincinnati is going to deal the pick. They go with their next draft love in Herbert, not Tua, by trading with Detroit.
1-04 Los Angeles Chargers (f/NYG) - QB Jordan Love, Utah (New York receives 1-06, 2-37)
The Chargers jump up a spot to make certain they get their QBOTF.
1-05 Detroit Lions (f/MIA) - DT Derrick Brown, Auburn
The Lions got a solid haul from Miami and get a force in Derrick Brown to help their run defense and pass rush.
1-06 New York Giants (f/LAC) - LB Isaiah Simmons, Clemson
Gettleman uncharacteristically moves out of his draft slot but returns to the status quo and goes after an ultra-athletic playmaker on defense in Simmons.
1-07 Carolina Panthers - CB Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State
The Panthers need to replace their losses all throughout their defense and get a good one in Okudah to replace Bradberry in a surprise drop.
1-08 Arizona Cardinals - DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina
The Cards never replaced Calais Campbell but finally take their shot to land a stud 5-tech opposite Allen.
1-09 Jacksonville Jaguars - CB CJ Henderson, Florida
The Jags cleaned house on defense so they definitely will be looking at a CB early and Henderson is the 2nd best in this draft without a doubt.
1-10 Cleveland Browns - OT Tristan Wirfs, Iowa
The Browns need to finally replace Joe Thomas and get an athletic specimen in Wirfs.
1-11 Denver Broncos (f/NYJ) - WR CeeDee Lamb (New York receives 1-15, 3-77, 5-178)
Denver needs to add playmakers so they make a move up to secure the draft's top wideout in Lamb.
1-12 Las Vegas Raiders - WR Justin Jefferson, LSU
The Raiders stand pat and get a playmaker for Carr.
1-13 San Francisco 49ers (f/IND) - WR Henry Ruggs, Alabama (from Buckner trade)
The 49ers need more big-play ability opposite Samuel and they get exactly that with Ruggs insane speed.
1-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ER K'Lavon Chaisson, LSU
The Bucs struggled to rush the passer for a decade before landing Shaq Barrett, whom they haven't signed long-term, so they have to look for the future with hopes they are providing a bookend rather than replacement.
1-15 New York Jets (f/DEN) - OT Jedrick Wills, Alabama
The Jets move down and still get a top-level tackle prospect in the middle of the draft.
1-16 Atlanta Falcons - LB Patrick Queen, LSU
Atlanta's only real LB is Deion Jones so they desperately need more there.
1-17 Dallas Cowboys - CB A.J. Terrell, Clemson
Losing Byron Jones hurts so the Cowboys restock with the long and athletic Terrell.
1-18 Miami Dolphins (f/PIT) - OT Andrew Thomas, Georgia (from Fitzpatrick trade)
Julie'n Davenport is not the answer at LT to protect their shiny new QB, so they grab one of the few pure LTs in the draft in the underrated Thomas.
1-19 Las Vegas Raiders (f/CHI) - CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah (from Mack trade)
Mayock has shown alot of interest in Johnson and has done so with Utah corners in the past. Johnson is a Raider.
1-20 Jacksonville Jaguars (f/LAR) - OT Josh Jones, Houston (from Ramsey trade)
The Jaguars went CB early and waited on OT in a deep class.
1-21 Philadelphia Eagles (f/TB) - WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
There's a lot of smoke about the Eagles moving up to get a receiver but I doubt they need to. Jeudy is stupid but once he gets the offense he can be special.
1-22 Minnesota Vikings (f/BUF) - CB Trevon Diggs, Alabama (from S. Diggs trade)
The Vikings swap one Diggs for another, landing Trevon as a press CB to replace the departed Xavier Rhodes (and just about everyone else).
1-23 New England Patriots - QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Tua has medical flags and he's dumb but Bill will reach out to his old friend and get the low-down on this guy. Tua's skill set fits what Bill likes.
1-24 New Orleans Saints - LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma
The Saints need to replace Kiko Alonso on the inside.
1-25 Minnesota Vikings - WR Denzel Mims, Baylor
The Vikings will see some resemblances of Randy Moss in Mims with length, speed, and a large catch radius.
1-26 Detroit Lions (f/HOU via MIA) - CB Kristian Fulton, LSU
The Lions pass on Okudah so they'll need a CB to replace Slay and Fulton is that guy.
1-27 Seattle Seahawks - LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin
The Seahawks brought Bruce Irvin back so replacing their Leo reeks of desperation. Baun is a great fit.
1-28 Baltimore Ravens - ER Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State
John Harbaugh was vocal about addressing the interior offensive line but that pass rush is weak, and they need to improve it.
1-29 Tennessee Titans - OT Mekhi Becton, Louisville
The Titans lost big when Conklin departed so they'll have to look to replace the stud RT. Becton falls because he's an idiot.
1-30 Green Bay Packers - WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State
Aaron Rodgers is tired of throwing to scrubs and Aiyuk will have him reminiscing about Greg Jennings.
1-31 San Francisco 49ers - DT Raekwon Davis, Alabama
The 49ers don't see an amazing value here at CB so they go with Raekwon Davis to replace Buckner.
1-32 Kansas City Chiefs - DE A.J. Epenesa, Iowa
Veach is a mixed bag in terms of production versus traits, but he seems to favor production when it's there and Epenesa is a prime case-in-point of a player that should go top-15 but is looking at a probable slide due to a bad day in underwear. Plus, Epenesa fits a forward-looking need and depth consideration now.

[jetlord 10,207]

That's exactly the trade I have the Chiefs making although I had them only getting 38 and 113.  Also, isn't MIA overpaying to move up two spots?  Yeah, it's early in the round and picks are more valuable there, but considering they would probably get Herbert at #5 even if they didn't move up, it seems a high price.  

[kccrow 529]

1 hour ago, jetlord said:

That's exactly the trade I have the Chiefs making although I had them only getting 38 and 113.  Also, isn't MIA overpaying to move up two spots?  Yeah, it's early in the round and picks are more valuable there, but considering they would probably get Herbert at #5 even if they didn't move up, it seems a high price.  

When the Jets moved up for Darnold from 6 to 3 they gave up 6, 37, 49, and a 2019 2nd. That's a minimum value of 1600 + 530 + 410 + 270 = 2,810 points for a pick worth 2,200. 

Comparatively, 5, 26, and 56 is worth 2,740 points for the same pick. I think, when you look at this year's draft it is stronger in the top 10-15 picks than that 2018 draft was so I can't fathom picks being valued much differently at the top. I was being a bit conservative not saying it would take 39 instead of 56 (IMO of course)

Edit: To answer your question, yes it's an overpayment and I think Detroit will command it in order to take a chance on missing out on Okudah. 

[jetlord 10,207]

22 minutes ago, kccrow said:

When the Jets moved up for Darnold from 6 to 3 they gave up 6, 37, 49, and a 2019 2nd. That's a minimum value of 1600 + 530 + 410 + 270 = 2,810 points for a pick worth 2,200. 

Comparatively, 5, 26, and 56 is worth 2,740 points for the same pick. I think, when you look at this year's draft it is stronger in the top 10-15 picks than that 2018 draft was so I can't fathom picks being valued much differently at the top. I was being a bit conservative not saying it would take 39 instead of 56 (IMO of course)

Edit: To answer your question, yes it's an overpayment and I think Detroit will command it in order to take a chance on missing out on Okudah. 

Maybe you're right if the Fins love Herbert that much more than Tua.  All they're buying is insurance that LAC doesn't jump them for Herbert unless there's some other player in the QB game that's willing to pay a lot more from a lower position. 

[xen 1,010,219]

Early qb = overpay when there are multiple teams after a QB.  If it ends up being the right guy it doesn't matter what you paid.  Does anybody care what we gave up for Mahomes?

[Palangi 788]

I would look at Detroit as a trade partner too. They have 2 2nd rounders and 2 3rd rounders. They could go Simmons with their top pick then trade back into round one to get their corner Terrell, Fulton, Diggs. One of those guys could be there still.  Maybe they move up to grab Eason to sit a year or two behind Stafford then take over? 

Thei get pick 32 and LDT to help bolster their interior line that is weak.  

We get both latter picks from rounds 2 and 3 picks 37 and 74. We then have...

2. Robert Hunt RG Louisiana Lafayette 

2. Bryce Hall CB Virginia

3. Troy Dye LB Oregon 

3. Jacob Breeland TE Oregon

4. J'von Sneed FS/CB Louisiana Tech

5. Cohl Cabral C ASU

[jetlord 10,207]

3 hours ago, xen said:

Early qb = overpay when there are multiple teams after a QB.  If it ends up being the right guy it doesn't matter what you paid.  Does anybody care what we gave up for Mahomes?

You're right as long a MIA wants Herbert that much more than Tua, or the other way around.  DET would jump at a trade for less than that unless LAC was in a bidding war.  The Lions probably get the same guy at #5 as they would at #3.  I doubt either QB is the next Mahomes but then 10 teams in 2017 didn't value Mahomes that much so who knows.

[xen 1,010,219]

1 minute ago, jetlord said:

You're right as long a MIA wants Herbert that much more than Tua, or the other way around.  DET would jump at a trade for less than that unless LAC was in a bidding war.  The Lions probably get the same guy at #5 as they would at #3.  I doubt either QB is the next Mahomes but then 10 teams in 2017 didn't value Mahomes that much so who knows.

Yeah who knows.  Hell they could both drop to 5 & 6 like in all the mocks.  It just never seems to play out that way.  For that matter the fake Washington interest in Tua could be real.  I doubt that too.

[jetlord 10,207]

2 hours ago, Palangi said:

I would look at Detroit as a trade partner too. They have 2 2nd rounders and 2 3rd rounders. They could go Simmons with their top pick then trade back into round one to get their corner Terrell, Fulton, Diggs. One of those guys could be there still.  Maybe they move up to grab Eason to sit a year or two behind Stafford then take over? 

Thei get pick 32 and LDT to help bolster their interior line that is weak.  

We get both latter picks from rounds 2 and 3 picks 37 and 74. We then have...

2. Robert Hunt RG Louisiana Lafayette 

2. Bryce Hall CB Virginia

3. Troy Dye LB Oregon 

3. Jacob Breeland TE Oregon

4. J'von Sneed FS/CB Louisiana Tech

5. Cohl Cabral C ASU

Early second and early fourth is more likely what the Chiefs can get for #32.   If a QB is still on the board at #32, the Chiefs have a good chance of working such a trade. 

[xen 1,010,219]

1 minute ago, jetlord said:

Early second and early fourth is more likely what the Chiefs can get for #32.   If a QB is still on the board at #32, the Chiefs have a good chance of working such a trade. 

If Love is on the board we'll get above market value.

[jetlord 10,207]

1 minute ago, xen said:

Yeah who knows.  Hell they could both drop to 5 & 6 like in all the mocks.  It just never seems to play out that way.  For that matter the fake Washington interest in Tua could be real.  I doubt that too.

Best case for DET and WASH is to scare MIA and LAC into trading up.  Extra picks at no cost although WASH might hate to lose Chase. 

[jetlord 10,207]

Just now, xen said:

If Love is on the board we'll get above market value.

That's my dream scenario.  Doubt he drops that far. 

[xen 1,010,219]

16 minutes ago, jetlord said:

That's my dream scenario.  Doubt he drops that far. 

Who knows with Love.  I would bet a few teams fall in love with that 2018 tape.  He's a real wildcard.  

[reesebobby 5,661]

19 hours ago, xen said:

Early qb = overpay when there are multiple teams after a QB.  If it ends up being the right guy it doesn't matter what you paid.  Does anybody care what we gave up for Mahomes?

I'm still pissed about that trade. Should never have given up the 2018 first rounder. 

[jetlord 10,207]

5 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

I'm still pissed about that trade. Should never have given up the 2018 first rounder. 

Should have given up the whole draft to move all the way up to get Tukesbury.  Could have aced out da' Bears.  

[xen 1,010,219]

2 hours ago, jetlord said:

Should have given up the whole draft to move all the way up to get Tukesbury.  Could have aced out da' Bears.  

Hell we coulda had Josh Allen.  FUCKIN VEACH!  DAMN YOUSE!!  DAMN YOUSE ALL TO HELL!!!

[liquidfriend 1,151]

I don't think I see anyone moving up for Herbert.  He isn't worth it.

[xen 1,010,219]

1 hour ago, liquidfriend said:

I don't think I see anyone moving up for Herbert.  He isn't worth it.

Since when have most QBs who go top 10 been worth it?

[liquidfriend 1,151]

26 minutes ago, xen said:

Since when have most QBs who go top 10 been worth it?

It's always worth taking a shot on a QB if you've got nothing, but it's entirely another thing if you're going to put your future up for hostage to do it.

[xen 1,010,219]

1 hour ago, liquidfriend said:

It's always worth taking a shot on a QB if you've got nothing, but it's entirely another thing if you're going to put your future up for hostage to do it.

And yet we see it all the time.  A great QB may be the hardest thing to find in all of sports, and the search makes teams desperate.  

[jetlord 10,207]

4 hours ago, xen said:

Since when have most QBs who go top 10 been worth it?

What year was Manning drafted?  Not too many taken with the first pick worth it since. 

[liquidfriend 1,151]

5 hours ago, xen said:

And yet we see it all the time.  A great QB may be the hardest thing to find in all of sports, and the search makes teams desperate.  

Teams get too antsy about reloading and trying again.  I'd be drafting one every year until I had one I felt was a SB winning QB.

They would rather settle for a limp dick like Jared Goff or an Alex Smith

[xen 1,010,219]

6 hours ago, liquidfriend said:

Teams get too antsy about reloading and trying again.  I'd be drafting one every year until I had one I felt was a SB winning QB.

They would rather settle for a limp dick like Jared Goff or an Alex Smith

Yep.  Thats why I didn't blame Zona for going QB back to back.  Yeah you fucked up.  Whatever.  Go get your guy.

[kkuenn 3,597]

12 hours ago, jetlord said:

What year was Manning drafted?  Not too many taken with the first pick worth it since. 

Which Manning? Eli was worth 2 SB. Cam Newton got them to a SB. Luck was very good, just could not stay healthy at the end and called it on his own terms. Still have to see what Mayfield and Murray can do. It is really a crap shoot but your chance of doing well and winning a SB or getting there seems to be done with a 1st round qb more often than not. Not necessarily the  top pick QB but a higher round picked QB. Those picked 1st overall tend to go to shitty teams too. This is why Mahomes came in the perfect situation for us. Top 10 QB. Had a tutor in Smith. Sat a year and learned with Reid and we were a good team too.

[jetlord 10,207]

1 hour ago, kkuenn said:

Which Manning? Eli was worth 2 SB. Cam Newton got them to a SB. Luck was very good, just could not stay healthy at the end and called it on his own terms. Still have to see what Mayfield and Murray can do. It is really a crap shoot but your chance of doing well and winning a SB or getting there seems to be done with a 1st round qb more often than not. Not necessarily the  top pick QB but a higher round picked QB. Those picked 1st overall tend to go to shitty teams too. This is why Mahomes came in the perfect situation for us. Top 10 QB. Had a tutor in Smith. Sat a year and learned with Reid and we were a good team too.

First round QB is usually necessary.  First pick is not.  We've seen more whiffs than successes with the #1 overall pick I would guess.