Chiefs run defense in 2020

[dhitter 1,424]

I saw an article where Anthony Hitchens said the Chiefs defense should be a "top 5" defense in 2020. My first thought was "gotta do a better job stopping the run." What are your expectations for the Chiefs defense this year?

[oldtimer 8,686]

about the same..getting better as the year progresses ..top15

[reesebobby 5,661]

51 minutes ago, dhitter said:

I saw an article where Anthony Hitchens said the Chiefs defense should be a "top 5" defense in 2020. My first thought was "gotta do a better job stopping the run." What are your expectations for the Chiefs defense this year?

We haven't changed that much personnel wise and we finished strong.  I would think 10-15 is a reasonable guess.  Maybe better.  I'd be disappointed with worse than 15.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

If the DBs hold up I could see us being top 10 pretty easily.  This year we know they scheme/system better and we already saw the three best running teams last year and did pretty good agains them.   Also none of those teams outside of the Ravens offer a real threat in the passing game so I think we will be fine.  With all that said I think we will be 13-15 range 

[Biggjliv4 1,292]

I think 10-15ish is reasonable.  Better familiarity and trust between players, but thin on DB due to FA loss and Breeland gonna be suspended a few. Have no expectations of any defensive rookie contributing this year due to COVID parameters and they are raw coming in.

But if we commit to running the ball more with CEH it will be a big positive for D as well with fewer opponent opportunities theoretically. 

[jetlord 10,209]

Defense?  About the same as last year.  Gay could be an upgrade on passes to RBs and TEs and he hits hard but lack of experience and OTAs might delay that.  Breeland out will be a downer so expect the CBs to take a step backward.  Don't expect much out of the drafted CBs this year.  Still waiting to see if Veach picks up a FA after the June cuts or after TC to bolster the CB corp. 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

33 minutes ago, jetlord said:

Defense?  About the same as last year.  Gay could be an upgrade on passes to RBs and TEs and he hits hard but lack of experience and OTAs might delay that.  Breeland out will be a downer so expect the CBs to take a step backward.  Don't expect much out of the drafted CBs this year.  Still waiting to see if Veach picks up a FA after the June cuts or after TC to bolster the CB corp. 

You ought to expect something out of the drafted CB's, especially Sneed. Right now he's our dime corner at minimum.

[jetlord 10,209]

1 hour ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

You ought to expect something out of the drafted CB's, especially Sneed. Right now he's our dime corner at minimum.

Hope you"re right.  Sneed has potential, but without OTAs or maybe full TC, he can't be expected to be that effective, especially early in the season when Breeland may be out. 

[Calichief 3,016]

Can’t be worse than 2018.... my god 

watching this Denver kc game On ESPN . What an atrocity this was... scrandrick was such trash. Tackling was horrendous.

if CEH, is anything close to hunt watch out.

Hunt was a monster. So sad. That guy was unstoppable. 

 

[Calichief 3,016]

Here comes the left handed toss 

[sith13 1,746]

I think Hitchens explicitly mentioned the need to stop the run to be a top 5 defense which is absolutely correct. DL is great and DBs are getting better but we can't have the teams run all over us as they did in the past. I'm expecting some major improvement this year but not sure if we'll get to top 5 as soon as 2020 as we have a lot of youngsters who aren't doing OTAs. 

[Chiefmanzada 466]

Pennel. 

[kkuenn 3,597]

Those wanting to know what Andy has done with his 3rd round picks or later like Snead.

 

 

[Adamixoye 604]

Remember how we went 9-0 to close the season and the defense was pretty good after getting healthy and learning Spags' schemes?  I think that or maybe a little better is their ceiling (more time in the system + adding Gay).  I think halfway between the first 10 games and the last 9 is probably a pessimistic estimate of their healthy floor.

Also:  the importance of run defense continues to be overrated.

[Mloe68 1,521]

21 hours ago, dhitter said:

I saw an article where Anthony Hitchens said the Chiefs defense should be a "top 5" defense in 2020. My first thought was "gotta do a better job stopping the run." What are your expectations for the Chiefs defense this year?

Spags took over two reclamation projects where he got legitimate time to build it right and wasn't saddled with head coaching duties and both turned into top 5 groups in year two. I think top ten is very realistic although keep in mind our offense and big leads can lead to decieving cheap yardage given up. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

1 hour ago, Adamixoye said:

Remember how we went 9-0 to close the season and the defense was pretty good after getting healthy and learning Spags' schemes?  I think that or maybe a little better is their ceiling (more time in the system + adding Gay).  I think halfway between the first 10 games and the last 9 is probably a pessimistic estimate of their healthy floor.

Also:  run defense is overrated.

6 of the top 7 teams in PASSING YPA defense made the playoffs. Only 1 of the bottom 7 did (Houston). You better not be giving up chunk yardage through the air if you want to win in this league. 

Meanwhile 3 of the bottom 6 in YPA RUSHING made the playoffs. While NONE of the top 6 made the playoffs. 

 

[Adamixoye 604]

3 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

6 of the top 7 teams in PASSING YPA defense made the playoffs. Only 1 of the bottom 7 did (Houston). You better not be giving up chunk yardage through the air if you want to win in this league. 

Meanwhile 3 of the bottom 6 in YPA RUSHING made the playoffs. While NONE of the top 6 made the playoffs. 

 

Yep.  Run defense is not meaningless, but if you could be good in passing defense vs. run defense, it's not even a question.

Same thing with passing vs. running on offense.

[reesebobby 5,661]

49 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

6 of the top 7 teams in PASSING YPA defense made the playoffs. Only 1 of the bottom 7 did (Houston). You better not be giving up chunk yardage through the air if you want to win in this league. 

Meanwhile 3 of the bottom 6 in YPA RUSHING made the playoffs. While NONE of the top 6 made the playoffs. 

 

It's kind of cherry picking the stats a little.  Team rushing leaders 1. Ravens  2. 49ers  3. Titans  4.  Seahawks  6. Vikings  8.  Bills  9.  Texans   11.  Eagles all made the playoffs.   That's 8 out of the top 12 rushing teams making it.  The Packers were 15 and the Saints 16.  The only 2 teams in the bottom half of yards rushing were the Chiefs and Patriots.  I'm not saying running is more important than passing, because it isn't, but using per attempt as the only stat is really not accurately catching how important it is. 

[Adamixoye 604]

54 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

It's kind of cherry picking the stats a little.  Team rushing leaders 1. Ravens  2. 49ers  3. Titans  4.  Seahawks  6. Vikings  8.  Bills  9.  Texans   11.  Eagles all made the playoffs.   That's 8 out of the top 12 rushing teams making it.  The Packers were 15 and the Saints 16.  The only 2 teams in the bottom half of yards rushing were the Chiefs and Patriots.  I'm not saying running is more important than passing, because it isn't, but using per attempt as the only stat is really not accurately catching how important it is. 

Total rushing yards isn't necessarily better than YPA though.  Yes, many of those teams nominally have rushing-based identities.  But there is a well-known correlation between rushing attempts and winning - but it's because you try to kill the clock when you have a lead.  I would look to more advanced metrics to determine actual running and passing efficiency than either YPA or total yardage.

[reesebobby 5,661]

27 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

Total rushing yards isn't necessarily better than YPA though.  Yes, many of those teams nominally have rushing-based identities.  But there is a well-known correlation between rushing attempts and winning - but it's because you try to kill the clock when you have a lead.  I would look to more advanced metrics to determine actual running and passing efficiency than either YPA or total yardage.

I never said it was better.  Just that you can cherry pick stats to make it look like being poor at running the ball increases your chances of making the playoffs.  However, upon further review, I'm not even sure that the stats MLoe said were true.  YPA Rushing   1.  Ravens  2.  Titans  8.  49ers  9.  Seahawks  10.  Texans  11.  Vikings  13.  Packers  14.  Bills.  That's 8 of the top 14 YPA teams in the playoffs.   And the bottom 6 in YPA were the Bucs, Rams, Steelers, Bears, Dolphins and Jets none of which made the playoffs. 

[Adamixoye 604]

3 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

I never said it was better.  Just that you can cherry pick stats to make it look like being poor at running the ball increases your chances of making the playoffs.  However, upon further review, I'm not even sure that the stats MLoe said were true.  YPA Rushing   1.  Ravens  2.  Titans  8.  49ers  9.  Seahawks  10.  Texans  11.  Vikings  13.  Packers  14.  Bills.  That's 8 of the top 14 YPA teams in the playoffs.   And the bottom 6 in YPA were the Bucs, Rams, Steelers, Bears, Dolphins and Jets none of which made the playoffs. 

And I didn't say you were saying it was better.  Despite the fact that I quoted MLoe's post above I don't think either stat is great at capturing this issue, and in addition, now we're talking about offense rather than defense.  My point is just that I think the importance of run defense is still overrated by the public, pundits, and some teams.  It's far from an Achilles' Heel that can't be overcome, which is what many people thought about us last year.

[reesebobby 5,661]

Just now, Adamixoye said:

My point is just that I think the importance of run defense is still overrated by the public, pundits, and some teams.  It's far from an Achilles' Heel that can't be overcome, which is what many people thought about us last year.

On that we agree. 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

13 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

And I didn't say you were saying it was better.  Despite the fact that I quoted MLoe's post above I don't think either stat is great at capturing this issue, and in addition, now we're talking about offense rather than defense.  My point is just that I think the importance of run defense is still overrated by the public, pundits, and some teams.  It's far from an Achilles' Heel that can't be overcome, which is what many people thought about us last year.

Clearly overrated. We gave Tennessee an ass whopping and everyone thought they were gonna run wild on us.

[reesebobby 5,661]

2 minutes ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

Clearly overrated. We gave Tennessee an ass whopping and everyone thought they were gonna run wild on us.

Except for earlier in the year when they did run wild on us and beat us.  At which point it was not overrated.  Or when they ran over the Patriots and Ravens and made it to the AFCCG.  I'd rather have Mahomes for sure, but we saw what the 49ers and Titans did with devastating running games in the playoffs. 

[Adamixoye 604]

1 minute ago, reesebobby said:

Except for earlier in the year when they did run wild on us and beat us.  At which point it was not overrated.  Or when they ran over the Patriots and Ravens and made it to the AFCCG.  I'd rather have Mahomes for sure, but we saw what the 49ers and Titans did with devastating running games in the playoffs. 

We actually dominated TOP though, and we had SO many things go wrong to lose that game.  Tennessee still needed the passing game on that last drive to take the lead, not the running game.  Plus the fumble for a TD return, not being aggressive on some 4th and shorts, not converting some easy 3rd downs, and the special teams miscues on those FGs.  I would not place our run defense in the top 3 (maybe 5?) reasons that we lost that game.