Chiefs run defense in 2020

[reesebobby 5,661]

35 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

We actually dominated TOP though, and we had SO many things go wrong to lose that game.  Tennessee still needed the passing game on that last drive to take the lead, not the running game.  Plus the fumble for a TD return, not being aggressive on some 4th and shorts, not converting some easy 3rd downs, and the special teams miscues on those FGs.  I would not place our run defense in the top 3 (maybe 5?) reasons that we lost that game.

True.  But nobody here thought run defense was overrated after that game.  Or the Colts game.  Or the Texans game.  It's not as important as pass defense, but it's still a thing.  And we went on our run once we got a grip on stopping the run.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

The more I think about it the more excited I am about having CEH.   Pairing an elite qb with a stud RB is a real nightmare and then pairng him with Mahomes isn’t even fair.   Most of the teams who are good at running are avg at throwing the ball.   They will beat teams but when they face a truly elite qb there is no guarantee.   Our defense doesn’t need to be top 5 it needs to be competent at stopping the run without loading box.   I think our defense will be good to start the season but when Gay, Thornhill and Sneed get up to speed our D could be really scary paired with our O.   Also Pennel being around from day one will help.

[Adamixoye 604]

10 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

True.  But nobody here thought run defense was overrated after that game.  Or the Colts game.  Or the Texans game.  It's not as important as pass defense, but it's still a thing.  And we went on our run once we got a grip on stopping the run.

But I would make the argument about the Colts and Texans games, too - there were other factors (turnovers, injuries to Pat) that I think were bigger factors than the run game.  Yet people still have the narrative that our run defense is why we lost those games.  It didn't help, but there were other paths to winning those games.

[reesebobby 5,661]

3 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

But I would make the argument about the Colts and Texans games, too - there were other factors (turnovers, injuries to Pat) that I think were bigger factors than the run game.  Yet people still have the narrative that our run defense is why we lost those games.  It didn't help, but there were other paths to winning those games.

Did you also notice how the Titans made it to the AFCCG and how the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl? 

[Adamixoye 604]

4 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

Did you also notice how the Titans made it to the AFCCG and how the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl? 

Correlation is not necessarily causation; the Titans didn't take off until Tannehill came in and vastly outplayed what Mariota was giving them.  SF had an excellent all-around team with a great defense and good QB play.  Ever notice how teams built around the run are usually (I stress, usually) only good when they have a good defense as well?*  Contrast vs. how we went 12-4 in 2018 despite a dumpster fire defense.  No chance the Titans or 49ers are that good if they have our 2018 defense.

Honestly throughout the entire AFC playoffs it came down who was the better QB on that day - Watson over Allen, Tannehill over Brady, Mahomes over Watson, Tannehill over Jackson, Mahomes over Tannehill.  Tannehill is not better than Brady or Jackson in general but he was in those games.

 

 

*Best counterpoint I could think of was our own 2003 Chiefs, but their running offense was historic, the passing game was still excellent, and the defense was just as bad if not worse than 2018 IMO.  And honestly they went 4-4 (including playoffs) after the 9-0 start once teams learned how to attack them, and the team was bad/mediocre in the surrounding years of 2002 and 2004.

[Mloe68 1,521]

12 hours ago, reesebobby said:

It's kind of cherry picking the stats a little.  Team rushing leaders 1. Ravens  2. 49ers  3. Titans  4.  Seahawks  6. Vikings  8.  Bills  9.  Texans   11.  Eagles all made the playoffs.   That's 8 out of the top 12 rushing teams making it.  The Packers were 15 and the Saints 16.  The only 2 teams in the bottom half of yards rushing were the Chiefs and Patriots.  I'm not saying running is more important than passing, because it isn't, but using per attempt as the only stat is really not accurately catching how important it is. 

First off I went to look at those stats with no preconceived notion and wasn’t really trying to back either side.  But cherry pick or not those stats painted a dramatic picture I really didn’t expect.  I’ve read for years the two most important stats in football are actually YPA pass offense and defense. And guess what. The bottom six teams in YPA pass defense all missed the playoffs. Whereas 6 of the top 7 best at that stat made the playoffs including both Super Bowl teams. 
I absolutely hate static approaches that suggest absolutes. Of course run defense matters.  The Titans game proved that without a doubt. Heck if SF keeps running instead of getting pass happy with Garrapolo they very well may have beaten us. It all matters. It’s why Andy and Brett drafted CEH in round 1. Just in the overall scheme of things your ability to play pass defense and pass offense matter more.  

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

8 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

First off I went to look at those stats with no preconceived notion and wasn’t really trying to back either side.  But cherry pick or not those stats painted a dramatic picture I really didn’t expect.  I’ve read for years the two most important stats in football are actually YPA pass offense and defense. And guess what. The bottom six teams in YPA pass defense all missed the playoffs. Whereas 6 of the top 7 best at that stat made the playoffs including both Super Bowl teams. 
I absolutely hate static approaches that suggest absolutes. Of course run defense matters.  The Titans game proved that without a doubt. Heck if SF keeps running instead of getting pass happy with Garrapolo they very well may have beaten us. It all matters. It’s why Andy and Brett drafted CEH in round 1. Just in the overall scheme of things your ability to play pass defense and pass offense matter more.  

Yeah I should have elaborated. Its less important for US specifically because of our ability to build leads and play from ahead so often. But in general when a team can run on you at will, they tend to dictate TOP and the flow of the game. 

Funniest part about this whole thing is that Hitchens not playing to anywhere near what his contract pays him is one of the biggest reasons our run D isn't as good as it should be. One of the least instinctual Mike's I've watched in a long time.

The guy just has the natural ability to always flow to the wrong gap or always scrape but be in a position where a lineman can easily seal him off from the play.

Still Veachs biggest miss overall. And he doesn't have many.

[reesebobby 5,661]

22 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

Meanwhile 3 of the bottom 6 in YPA RUSHING made the playoffs. While NONE of the top 6 made the playoffs. 

 

Unless I'm looking at something wrong (which is entirely possible), the bottom 6 in YPA RUSHING were the Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Steelers, Rams and Bucs, none of which made the playoffs and the top two were the Ravens and Titans, both of which did. 

[Adamixoye 604]

YPA is better than total yards rank (for either rushing or passing), but both pale in comparison to something like EPA/play, which is obviously harder to find (or calculate for yourself).

If you're not familiar with EPA, Mahomes just kills it.  It's basically a measure of "how much did you improve your team's chances of scoring."  So it factors in things like down and distance, and those 15 yard plays on 3rd and 20 in your own end of the field don't matter.  But the way our offense completes all those 3rd and longs shows us as being really dominant.

[reesebobby 5,661]

1 minute ago, Adamixoye said:

YPA is better than total yards rank (for either rushing or passing), but both pale in comparison to something like EPA/play, which is obviously harder to find (or calculate for yourself).

If you're not familiar with EPA, Mahomes just kills it.  It's basically a measure of "how much did you improve your team's chances of scoring."  So it factors in things like down and distance, and those 15 yard plays on 3rd and 20 in your own end of the field don't matter.  But the way our offense completes all those 3rd and longs shows us as being really dominant.

I was watching a breakdown of the Super Bowl 2-3 chip jet wasp and they said on 3rd and 15 Mahomes passer rating is something like 96.0 and the league average is something like 4.9.  I don't remember the exact number but that's pretty close.  I have gotten where I'm happier at 3rd and 7 instead of 3rd and 3. 

[Adamixoye 604]

6 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

I was watching a breakdown of the Super Bowl 2-3 chip jet wasp and they said on 3rd and 15 Mahomes passer rating is something like 96.0 and the league average is something like 4.9.  I don't remember the exact number but that's pretty close.  I have gotten where I'm happier at 3rd and 7 instead of 3rd and 3. 

Yeah, I don't know if I can find them but our stats on like 3rd and 15 or more, either by traditional stats or advanced analytics, are just mind-blowing.

[dhitter 1,424]

Here's a question I find interesting. Who will have the bigger impact on the Chiefs defense this year ...Breeland Speaks, Taco Charlton or Willie Gay?

 

[reesebobby 5,661]

34 minutes ago, dhitter said:

Here's a question I find interesting. Who will have the bigger impact on the Chiefs defense this year ...Breeland Speaks, Taco Charlton or Willie Gay?

 

I think Taco will surprise us and have a breakout year.  But he is probably not a big upgrade to Ogbah.  Gay on the other hand could be a big upgrade potentially. 

[Chiefmanzada 466]

55 minutes ago, dhitter said:

Here's a question I find interesting. Who will have the bigger impact on the Chiefs defense this year ...Breeland Speaks, Taco Charlton or Willie Gay?

 

Gay I believe. 

[Adamixoye 604]

55 minutes ago, dhitter said:

Here's a question I find interesting. Who will have the bigger impact on the Chiefs defense this year ...Breeland Speaks, Taco Charlton or Willie Gay?

 

It better be Gay.  If he can contribute he would bring the most improvement to this team.

Speaks I have no real hope for. If he contributes that's found money. 

Taco I think will be an effective rotation guy, a discount Ogbah with some upside that probably won't be realized. 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

3 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

It better be Gay.  If he can contribute he would bring the most improvement to this team.

Speaks I have no real hope for. If he contributes that's found money. 

Taco I think will be an effective rotation guy, a discount Ogbah with some upside that probably won't be realized. 

I just do not understand this line of thinking. The dude impressed our scouts and GM enough that they traded up to get him in rd 2. He plays 1 year completely out of position working under a crappy defensive coordinator and everyone gives up. 

He's a 2nd round pick. He should be EXPECTED to contribute in a scheme much more suited to his skill set and one he played in at Ole Miss.

[Adamixoye 604]

3 minutes ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I just do not understand this line of thinking. The dude impressed our scouts and GM enough that they traded up to get him in rd 2. He plays 1 year completely out of position working under a crappy defensive coordinator and everyone gives up. 

He's a 2nd round pick. He should be EXPECTED to contribute in a scheme much more suited to his skill set and one he played in at Ole Miss.

I'm not writing him off completely and it wouldn't shock me if he turned things around for the reasons that you state.  But I'm just not personally expecting it at this point.

[Handswarmer 645]

20 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

Correlation is not necessarily causation; the Titans didn't take off until Tannehill came in and vastly outplayed what Mariota was giving them.  SF had an excellent all-around team with a great defense and good QB play.  Ever notice how teams built around the run are usually (I stress, usually) only good when they have a good defense as well?*  Contrast vs. how we went 12-4 in 2018 despite a dumpster fire defense.  No chance the Titans or 49ers are that good if they have our 2018 defense.

Honestly throughout the entire AFC playoffs it came down who was the better QB on that day - Watson over Allen, Tannehill over Brady, Mahomes over Watson, Tannehill over Jackson, Mahomes over Tannehill.  Tannehill is not better than Brady or Jackson in general but he was in those games.

 

 

*Best counterpoint I could think of was our own 2003 Chiefs, but their running offense was historic, the passing game was still excellent, and the defense was just as bad if not worse than 2018 IMO.  And honestly they went 4-4 (including playoffs) after the 9-0 start once teams learned how to attack them, and the team was bad/mediocre in the surrounding years of 2002 and 2004.

Tannehill was 7/14 for 88 yds and 2 TDs (12yds and 45 yds= 57-88= 31 yds non td passing)

Thats not being better.

[Adamixoye 604]

10 minutes ago, Handswarmer said:

Tannehill was 7/14 for 88 yds and 2 TDs (12yds and 45 yds= 57-88= 31 yds non td passing)

Thats not being better.

Yes, I forgot the all important stat of "total passing yards after you subtract the most important passing yards."

QB rating isn't perfect, but 109.5 vs. 63.2.  ESPN QBR 82.3 vs. 28.7.

But sure, we'll use your stat.

[Mloe68 1,521]

3 hours ago, reesebobby said:

I was watching a breakdown of the Super Bowl 2-3 chip jet wasp and they said on 3rd and 15 Mahomes passer rating is something like 96.0 and the league average is something like 4.9.  I don't remember the exact number but that's pretty close.  I have gotten where I'm happier at 3rd and 7 instead of 3rd and 3. 

I’m not happier but I’m also not concerned. Our QB is anything but the normal and in some ways can refine common football logic. I mean four straight drives of 80-94 yards for TDs in the playoffs?!?!  Are you kidding me.  Meanwhile a 3rd and 8 with Alex Smith almost felt like a punting situation. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

40 minutes ago, Handswarmer said:

Tannehill was 7/14 for 88 yds and 2 TDs (12yds and 45 yds= 57-88= 31 yds non td passing)

Thats not being better.

The difference is Baltimore didn’t have the offense to put Tannehill into pressure situations. The Titans played the game on their terms which makes mediocre QBs look much better than they really are. And most importantly set Tennessee up to do what they did best. Run the ball down your throats. 
Make Tannehill the offensive catalyst and that Titans offense losses its identity and its edge. 
It’s why being diverse In January is usually so important. Of course the 49ers got to Miami anyway. 

[xen 1,010,219]

13 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

The difference is Baltimore didn’t have the offense to put Tannehill into pressure situations. The Titans played the game on their terms which makes mediocre QBs look much better than they really are. And most importantly set Tennessee up to do what they did best. Run the ball down your throats. 
Make Tannehill the offensive catalyst and that Titans offense losses its identity and its edge. 
It’s why being diverse In January is usually so important. Of course the 49ers got to Miami anyway. 

To be fair the NFC didn't put up much of a fight.  The saints shit the bed early and the packers were extremely overrated.

[dhitter 1,424]

I think Gay will have a bigger role in the defense. More PT should mean more production. Breeland and Taco will be rotational guys who can make their mark but they likely will have less opportunities.

[reesebobby 5,661]

1 hour ago, Handswarmer said:

Tannehill was 7/14 for 88 yds and 2 TDs (12yds and 45 yds= 57-88= 31 yds non td passing)

Thats not being better.

Lamar Jackson shit the bed like a nursing home patient on lasagna night in that game.  52% completion percentage and the two costly picks.  It was sad to watch frankly as a fan of good football.  I wanted him to do well, but he just couldn't get it together. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

27 minutes ago, xen said:

To be fair the NFC didn't put up much of a fight.  The saints shit the bed early and the packers were extremely overrated.

No doubt. When your QB completes only 18 passes total for less than 200 yards in two games; you’ve clearly completely dominated overwhelmed competition.