Lamardirts 2,114 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 ESPN has his projections at 2020 projection: 4,477 passing yards, 33 TDs, 10 INT (281 rushing yards). When his 2019 stats were 4000 passing yards, 26TD's, and 5int and he was hobbled, missed games and was without Hill and Fisher for multiple games. Seems low all the way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomahawkChop 255 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 It’s a good “over or under” proposition, though. Barring missed games due to injury or COVID, I’d take the over. oldtimer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handswarmer 645 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Make sure Hill and Kelce make every game.... AFCWEST 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetlord 10,209 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I'd take the over on the TDs. Yardage seems about right. CEH may change the stats a little but Reid will still sling it in the red zone. qnet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robgar 1,046 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 5500 yards 55 touchdowns.. DieHard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reesebobby 5,662 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/1/2020 at 7:03 PM, Handswarmer said: Make sure Hill and Kelce make every game.... When Tyreek missed 4 games last year with the injury Mahomes threw 363 per game with 8 TDs. He's that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azchief21 5,278 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 11 hours ago, robgar said: 5500 yards 55 touchdowns.. I'll second this DieHard and AFCWEST 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balto 723 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 I agree! 2020: 5500, 55 tds 2021: 6000, 60 TDs DieHard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sith13 1,746 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 He's capable of a lot more but I can see the Chiefs running more this year and taking away some stats from Mahomes unless we really need it. It's all up to the defense's performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, sith13 said: He's capable of a lot more but I can see the Chiefs running more this year and taking away some stats from Mahomes unless we really need it. It's all up to the defense's performance. agreed. JMO here but I see using the explosiveness to open up a big lead then pound the ball....or Open it up if a late game surg is needed..but then that does go against Andy's DNA where a RB catching out of the backfield is the same as a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sith13 1,746 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, oldtimer said: agreed. JMO here but I see using the explosiveness to open up a big lead then pound the ball....or Open it up if a late game surg is needed..but then that does go against Andy's DNA where a RB catching out of the backfield is the same as a run We could very well see a 2018-type offense that kicks off with a huge lead and watches the opposition struggle to try and make it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 5000 and 50 oldtimer and AFCWEST 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burpo The Mad Clown 5,555 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 What the heck. 4894 yards 43 TDs 12 INTs I would like to agree with sith that we will see more of a running game this year, but with the always pass-happy Big Red Wizard on the sidelines with his dream QB, he won't be able to control himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balto 723 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Can he average 300 yards and 3 TDs a game? That will give him 4,800/48 TDs not to bad hahaha I'm sure when that 17th game is added the "old timers" will huff and puff about records and how they should count anymore because Mahomes will have an extra game each season to throw. Thats why I think 6000/60 is not out of the question for a 17 game season. 5500/55 in 16 game season is 344/3.4 TDs 6000/60 in 17 games is 353/3.5 TDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFCWEST 1,238 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 4 hours ago, sith13 said: We could very well see a 2018-type offense that kicks off with a huge lead and watches the opposition struggle to try and make it back. Im not convinced the oline will get it done. Run blocking was not real good last year and even with Clyde you still need holes to run through. This means Pat will be passing like never before, if he gets the protection he needs. I think Clyde will be more a receiving threat than running. Andy does not run up scores which will hold back Pays #s.. He just too nice. If the defense is playing decent, middle of the pack, then Pats #s will be lower as Reid can count on some stops. So Im thinking 4200 yards and 45 tds. Doubt KC gets a lot of rushing tds. Yes I love being WRONG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamardirts 2,114 Posted September 6, 2020 Author Share Posted September 6, 2020 Gonna be hard to get to 50 if our defense is anything close to what it was at the end of 2019. Gotta remember 2018 we had to score because our d was pathetic. It really does take the perfect storm to get those numbers because you have to constantly be putting the pedal to the metal and we all know Reid doesn't or won't embarrass opponents so unless the D allows teams to stay close it will be very difficult for him to hit 50 again in the near future. I fully expect our D to struggle a bit but round into form early on this year so I think the 4800 and mid to low 40's seems plausible. The only way I see our D faltering is if our DB's regress from last year and the rookies don't step up, in that scenario 5000/50 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamixoye 604 Posted September 6, 2020 Share Posted September 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Lamardirts said: Gonna be hard to get to 50 if our defense is anything close to what it was at the end of 2019. Gotta remember 2018 we had to score because our d was pathetic. It really does take the perfect storm to get those numbers because you have to constantly be putting the pedal to the metal and we all know Reid doesn't or won't embarrass opponents so unless the D allows teams to stay close it will be very difficult for him to hit 50 again in the near future. I fully expect our D to struggle a bit but round into form early on this year so I think the 4800 and mid to low 40's seems plausible. The only way I see our D faltering is if our DB's regress from last year and the rookies don't step up, in that scenario 5000/50 is possible. I think this pretty much nails it. I think I might have just a touch more confidence that our D will keep building on last year even with the question marks at CB, but otherwise I completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetlord 10,209 Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 6 hours ago, Adamixoye said: I think this pretty much nails it. I think I might have just a touch more confidence that our D will keep building on last year even with the question marks at CB, but otherwise I completely agree. The Chiefs face Watson, Lamar, Brady, Brees, and Cam among others. They'll need plenty of points to win those games and unless the defense shows big improvement, Pat will have plenty of opportunity to air it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamixoye 604 Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 1 hour ago, jetlord said: The Chiefs face Watson, Lamar, Brady, Brees, and Cam among others. They'll need plenty of points to win those games and unless the defense shows big improvement, Pat will have plenty of opportunity to air it out. They faced three of those last year (two of them early), went 2-1, and averaged just 26.7 points. NO might be a shootout but it's late in the year when Brees has tailed off the last few years. Cam is a total wild card based on health. If the KC defense is just what it was last year (no better, no worse) I don't see the offense needing to go Rams-MNF-game wild at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamardirts 2,114 Posted September 7, 2020 Author Share Posted September 7, 2020 8 hours ago, Adamixoye said: I think this pretty much nails it. I think I might have just a touch more confidence that our D will keep building on last year even with the question marks at CB, but otherwise I completely agree. I have high hopes for the D as well. I actually think the added athleticism amongst the DBs will eventually be an asset in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamardirts 2,114 Posted September 7, 2020 Author Share Posted September 7, 2020 I don’t think Pat even cares. He’s going to put up numbers that will keep him in elite company his entire career. His biggest concern now is rings and I think he needs at least 4 to be in the GOAT conversation. Probably 5 is necessary. Getting a back to back wont hurt his cause either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reesebobby 5,662 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Looks like it's gonna be 3376 and 48. You guys were way off. oldtimer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFCWEST 1,238 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 On 9/4/2020 at 2:00 PM, AFCWEST said: Im not convinced the oline will get it done. Run blocking was not real good last year and even with Clyde you still need holes to run through. This means Pat will be passing like never before, if he gets the protection he needs. I think Clyde will be more a receiving threat than running. Andy does not run up scores which will hold back Pays #s.. He just too nice. If the defense is playing decent, middle of the pack, then Pats #s will be lower as Reid can count on some stops. So Im thinking 4200 yards and 45 tds. Doubt KC gets a lot of rushing tds. Yes I love being WRONG I LOVE BEING WRONG> OLINE LOOKED VERY GOOD LAST NIGHT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xen 1,010,220 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Survey: Who Will Be the NFL's Five Best Quarterbacks by the End of 2020? Albert Breer polls more than 50 NFL decision makers about which quarterbacks they expect to lead the pack at the end of this season. Plus, power rankings, how the NFL will look on TV and market-setting contracts for star players. ALBERT BREER SEP 10, 2020 Saying the 2015 Texas Bowl changed the landscape of the NFL would not be overstating it. On Dec. 29 of that year, the Chiefs were a good-not-great team. Andy Reid had stabilized the franchise and was entrenched in his third year as coach, with John Dorsey at GM and Alex Smith at quarterback. Those guys, at the time, probably couldn’t pick Patrick Mahomes out of a lineup. But what went on tape that day would soon become very identifiable within the walls of team headquarters. Back then, Brett Veach was still in his first year as co-director of player personnel, working underneath Dorsey and VP of football ops Chris Ballard, and alongside Mike Borgonzi, who held the same title. And when Veach and I talked a couple months ago—a conversation you may have caught on my podcast—he explained it was that game that stirred his awakening on what was coming to the NFL. Veach tells his scouts he has an “excite-o-meter” watching prospects, set off by “guys that you start the tape and when you look up, you don’t even realize that four or five hours have passed and you’ve watched every single game because you’re not even thinking of this as an assignment.” Mahomes’s Texas Tech team lost by four touchdowns in that Texas Bowl. And Veach’s excite-o-meter might as well have burst into flames. “This was visual evidence that was so eye-popping,” Veach said, from his vacation. “Here you are—you’re watching Texas Tech. They’re playing an LSU team that has a bunch of first-rounders that year on both sides of the football, and he’s single-handedly unstoppable. So you want to talk about making people around him better, making things happen when things shouldn’t happen? And then your mind starts to think … What if you put him with Coach Reid? And what if he’s able to understand the West Coast offense? And what if you put a ton of talent around this guy? “If this guy can line up against LSU and have first-round defensive linemen breathing down his neck, have first-round corners covering his wideouts, have first-round safeties playing the deep half of the field and he is able to just—on his own—move the ball up and down the field and make something out of nothing, what if you put him with Coach Reid? And what if he had better receivers than the other team, and what if he had offensive linemen that could protect him? The sky could be the limit for this guy because this guy is like nothing we’ve seen before.” It’s been almost five years since that game was played. We know what’s happened since. This week, I reprised an exercise I ran back in 2015 and again in 2018—asking NFL folks to list for me, 1-through-5, who they believe the top quarterbacks in football will be when we get to the end of the season. The results prove how right Veach was back then. We really haven’t seen anything like this before. *** Football is here! And to get you ready, in this week’s GamePlan, we’ve got … • My Week 1 Power Rankings ballot. • A look at what you’ll see on your TV this weekend. • The NFL’s recession-proof contracts. But we’re starting with the guy you’ll see climb back on the big stage tonight, six months after he rubber-stamped all the excitement he’d created over two season with a Super Bowl title. *** Dan Marino won an MVP in his second NFL season, as a sort of Mahomes-level phenom of his own time. Joe Montana and Tom Brady each won championships, and Super Bowl MVPs, within their first three years as pros. And all three of those guys went on to become the all-time greats those sorts of starts promised them to be. Mahomes has already done both, and he doesn’t turn 25 until next week. So it was that when I scrambled to put together the poll—honestly, just because I felt like this would be a good time to do it again—I sort of expected it to turn out the way it did. But to see NFL people agree so overwhelmingly on something was still jarring. Most of these guys could disagree over the color of the yard markers (orange or more of a tangerine?), and yet on this one they were in complete lockstep. The request, again, was to rank who they believe the top five quarterbacks in football will be at the conclusion of the season, and I scored it simply—five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote, three for a third-place vote, two for a fourth-place vote, and one for a fifth-place vote. The idea, of course, is not to rank guys on where they’ve been, but where they’re going. Keeping the number to five is, for me, an exercise in figuring out who NFL folks believe are capable of being elite this year, and to get the answer I canvassed a pretty wide range of people. Head coaches. General managers. Scouting VPs and directors. Offensive coordinators. Quarterback coaches. I got 53 ballots back. The results … 1) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 261 points (49 first-place votes) 2) Russell Wilson, Seahawks: 153 points 3) Lamar Jackson, Ravens: 88.5 points (2 first-place votes) 4) Deshaun Watson, Texans: 70.5 points (1 first-place vote) 5) Aaron Rodgers, Packers: 69 points (1 first-place vote) 6) Drew Brees, Saints: 54 points 7) Tom Brady, Buccaneers: 41 points 😎 Carson Wentz, Eagles: 16 points 9) Dak Prescott, Cowboys: 15 points 10) Kyler Murray, Cardinals: 12 points T-11) Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: 4 points T-11) Cam Newton, Patriots: 4 points 13) Matthew Stafford, Lions: 2 points T-14) Ryan Tannehill, Titans: 1 point T-14) Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers: 1 point Mahomes got 261 of a possible 265 points, a result of finishing first on 49 ballots and second on the other four. For context, Rodgers topped the list in both 2015 and 2018, winning with 18 of 27 first-place votes the first time, and 23 of 32 the second time around. That’s 67% and 72% of the vote—a strong majority, just not as strong as Mahomes’s majority. The K.C. QB was first for 92% of the voters. And we’ll dive a little more into how to process all of this with Mahomes in a second. But first, a little more on the results of the poll. • Wilson was a very strong second—even though he didn’t get a single first-place vote (those were tough to come by). He appeared on 48 of the 53 lists I got, easily the closest number to Mahomes’s clean sweep. In fact, Jackson was the only other quarterback to make it on to more than half the ballots, appearing on 35 of them. Watson and Rodgers, showing up on 26 apiece were on just under half the lists. • Even as public perception on Brees has started to erode a little, a lot of NFL people believe he’s got another good year in him. He outdistanced his fellow 40-something Brady, both in points and the number of ballots he appeared on (23 to 19). • Of the guys still inside their first five years, it was pretty obvious, to me at least, that I’d see a lot of ballots with the names Mahomes, Watson and Jackson on them. It is interesting to see the three others in that age range who made it—Prescott was on 10 ballots, Wentz and Murray both showed up on eight—and then who didn’t. • Stafford is the one guy I thought there’d be a little more love for. But he didn’t do great in 2015 (5 points) or 2018 (0 points) either. All right, so those are the numbers. Now let’s get to what I see as the really interesting part of all this. *** Most of the people I polled, even if their teams didn’t need quarterbacks in 2017, took at least a cursory look at Mahomes coming out of college. And it’s not like he was a fourth pick or anything that year. But lots of people who presumably had the same access to that Tech/LSU tape that Veach did thought Mahomes’s game wouldn’t translate to the NFL and, as such, 10 teams passed on him—the nine picking in front of the 10th overall pick, and the Bills, who traded that pick away to the Chiefs. So what did everyone miss? How, exactly, did this happen? “I think more than anything, we overcomplicated the evaluation of that position,” said one NFC scouting director, when I asked after he voted Mahomes first. “When it’s not like what you’re used to seeing, that tends to make you nervous about it. And coming from Texas Tech, you had all those guys that put up big numbers. Kudos to those guys in Kansas City for seeing the talent and how it fit what they do.” Another scouting executive raised his 25 interceptions over 25 games in his last two years at Tech, the aforementioned history of video-game numbers from Red Raiders quarterbacks who didn’t pan out as pros, and the team’s 12-13 record over that time. And if you roll that all into seeing something that doesn’t fit into the box of what you’re used to seeing at the position—and Mahomes’s style is undeniably unconventional—it’s not hard to see where doubt crept in three years ago. Those who are honest about it now acknowledge that. “People thought he was one of these guys that just ran around and chucked it up,” said an AFC scouting chief. “Decision-making was something people dinged him on, and you never really got to watch him play from the pocket. When you have a guy running around, not being disciplined in the pocket, running out of the pocket all the time, it doesn’t fit to the preconceived notion of what a quarterback is.” And what we’ve seen since is unmistakable—that a guy with that style, all the talent in the world to pull it off and a great head on his shoulders to grow in the areas that didn’t show up on tape as much, can be a premier prospect. Or, as that scouting chief succinctly put it, “People thought, Well, this is a sandlot style, and lived in that box of the traditional pocket-passer forever. And I think now maybe your mind has to be open to the guy with the big arm who just makes plays. Because now who do you think about when you see it? You think of Patrick Mahomes.” So the NFL will change. And maybe if another kid capable of throwing it like Marino once did, but doing it off-platform, and from different arm angles—as one scout put it, “Like a shortstop making a double play, but instead of throwing it to second, he’s throwing it 50 yards across his body”—comes on the scene, he won’t be looked at like he was playing a different sport in college. Sometimes, it’s just as simple as that. Good for Veach for seeing that. Good for us, for getting to watch it again tonight—and for a long time to come. https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/09/10/top-five-quarterbacks-survey-no-fans-tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Survey: Who Will Be the NFL's Five Best Quarterbacks by the End of 2020? Albert Breer polls more than 50 NFL decision makers about which quarterbacks they expect to lead the pack at the end of this season. Plus, power rankings, how the NFL will look on TV and market-setting contracts for star players. ALBERT BREER SEP 10, 2020 Saying the 2015 Texas Bowl changed the landscape of the NFL would not be overstating it. On Dec. 29 of that year, the Chiefs were a good-not-great team. Andy Reid had stabilized the franchise and was entrenched in his third year as coach, with John Dorsey at GM and Alex Smith at quarterback. Those guys, at the time, probably couldn’t pick Patrick Mahomes out of a lineup. But what went on tape that day would soon become very identifiable within the walls of team headquarters. Back then, Brett Veach was still in his first year as co-director of player personnel, working underneath Dorsey and VP of football ops Chris Ballard, and alongside Mike Borgonzi, who held the same title. And when Veach and I talked a couple months ago—a conversation you may have caught on my podcast—he explained it was that game that stirred his awakening on what was coming to the NFL. Veach tells his scouts he has an “excite-o-meter” watching prospects, set off by “guys that you start the tape and when you look up, you don’t even realize that four or five hours have passed and you’ve watched every single game because you’re not even thinking of this as an assignment.” Mahomes’s Texas Tech team lost by four touchdowns in that Texas Bowl. And Veach’s excite-o-meter might as well have burst into flames. “This was visual evidence that was so eye-popping,” Veach said, from his vacation. “Here you are—you’re watching Texas Tech. They’re playing an LSU team that has a bunch of first-rounders that year on both sides of the football, and he’s single-handedly unstoppable. So you want to talk about making people around him better, making things happen when things shouldn’t happen? And then your mind starts to think … What if you put him with Coach Reid? And what if he’s able to understand the West Coast offense? And what if you put a ton of talent around this guy? “If this guy can line up against LSU and have first-round defensive linemen breathing down his neck, have first-round corners covering his wideouts, have first-round safeties playing the deep half of the field and he is able to just—on his own—move the ball up and down the field and make something out of nothing, what if you put him with Coach Reid? And what if he had better receivers than the other team, and what if he had offensive linemen that could protect him? The sky could be the limit for this guy because this guy is like nothing we’ve seen before.” It’s been almost five years since that game was played. We know what’s happened since. This week, I reprised an exercise I ran back in 2015 and again in 2018—asking NFL folks to list for me, 1-through-5, who they believe the top quarterbacks in football will be when we get to the end of the season. The results prove how right Veach was back then. We really haven’t seen anything like this before. *** Football is here! And to get you ready, in this week’s GamePlan, we’ve got … • My Week 1 Power Rankings ballot. • A look at what you’ll see on your TV this weekend. • The NFL’s recession-proof contracts. But we’re starting with the guy you’ll see climb back on the big stage tonight, six months after he rubber-stamped all the excitement he’d created over two season with a Super Bowl title. *** Dan Marino won an MVP in his second NFL season, as a sort of Mahomes-level phenom of his own time. Joe Montana and Tom Brady each won championships, and Super Bowl MVPs, within their first three years as pros. And all three of those guys went on to become the all-time greats those sorts of starts promised them to be. Mahomes has already done both, and he doesn’t turn 25 until next week. So it was that when I scrambled to put together the poll—honestly, just because I felt like this would be a good time to do it again—I sort of expected it to turn out the way it did. But to see NFL people agree so overwhelmingly on something was still jarring. Most of these guys could disagree over the color of the yard markers (orange or more of a tangerine?), and yet on this one they were in complete lockstep. The request, again, was to rank who they believe the top five quarterbacks in football will be at the conclusion of the season, and I scored it simply—five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote, three for a third-place vote, two for a fourth-place vote, and one for a fifth-place vote. The idea, of course, is not to rank guys on where they’ve been, but where they’re going. Keeping the number to five is, for me, an exercise in figuring out who NFL folks believe are capable of being elite this year, and to get the answer I canvassed a pretty wide range of people. Head coaches. General managers. Scouting VPs and directors. Offensive coordinators. Quarterback coaches. I got 53 ballots back. The results … 1) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 261 points (49 first-place votes) 2) Russell Wilson, Seahawks: 153 points 3) Lamar Jackson, Ravens: 88.5 points (2 first-place votes) 4) Deshaun Watson, Texans: 70.5 points (1 first-place vote) 5) Aaron Rodgers, Packers: 69 points (1 first-place vote) 6) Drew Brees, Saints: 54 points 7) Tom Brady, Buccaneers: 41 points 😎 Carson Wentz, Eagles: 16 points 9) Dak Prescott, Cowboys: 15 points 10) Kyler Murray, Cardinals: 12 points T-11) Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: 4 points T-11) Cam Newton, Patriots: 4 points 13) Matthew Stafford, Lions: 2 points T-14) Ryan Tannehill, Titans: 1 point T-14) Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers: 1 point Mahomes got 261 of a possible 265 points, a result of finishing first on 49 ballots and second on the other four. For context, Rodgers topped the list in both 2015 and 2018, winning with 18 of 27 first-place votes the first time, and 23 of 32 the second time around. That’s 67% and 72% of the vote—a strong majority, just not as strong as Mahomes’s majority. The K.C. QB was first for 92% of the voters. And we’ll dive a little more into how to process all of this with Mahomes in a second. But first, a little more on the results of the poll. • Wilson was a very strong second—even though he didn’t get a single first-place vote (those were tough to come by). He appeared on 48 of the 53 lists I got, easily the closest number to Mahomes’s clean sweep. In fact, Jackson was the only other quarterback to make it on to more than half the ballots, appearing on 35 of them. Watson and Rodgers, showing up on 26 apiece were on just under half the lists. • Even as public perception on Brees has started to erode a little, a lot of NFL people believe he’s got another good year in him. He outdistanced his fellow 40-something Brady, both in points and the number of ballots he appeared on (23 to 19). • Of the guys still inside their first five years, it was pretty obvious, to me at least, that I’d see a lot of ballots with the names Mahomes, Watson and Jackson on them. It is interesting to see the three others in that age range who made it—Prescott was on 10 ballots, Wentz and Murray both showed up on eight—and then who didn’t. • Stafford is the one guy I thought there’d be a little more love for. But he didn’t do great in 2015 (5 points) or 2018 (0 points) either. All right, so those are the numbers. Now let’s get to what I see as the really interesting part of all this. *** Most of the people I polled, even if their teams didn’t need quarterbacks in 2017, took at least a cursory look at Mahomes coming out of college. And it’s not like he was a fourth pick or anything that year. But lots of people who presumably had the same access to that Tech/LSU tape that Veach did thought Mahomes’s game wouldn’t translate to the NFL and, as such, 10 teams passed on him—the nine picking in front of the 10th overall pick, and the Bills, who traded that pick away to the Chiefs. So what did everyone miss? How, exactly, did this happen? “I think more than anything, we overcomplicated the evaluation of that position,” said one NFC scouting director, when I asked after he voted Mahomes first. “When it’s not like what you’re used to seeing, that tends to make you nervous about it. And coming from Texas Tech, you had all those guys that put up big numbers. Kudos to those guys in Kansas City for seeing the talent and how it fit what they do.” Another scouting executive raised his 25 interceptions over 25 games in his last two years at Tech, the aforementioned history of video-game numbers from Red Raiders quarterbacks who didn’t pan out as pros, and the team’s 12-13 record over that time. And if you roll that all into seeing something that doesn’t fit into the box of what you’re used to seeing at the position—and Mahomes’s style is undeniably unconventional—it’s not hard to see where doubt crept in three years ago. Those who are honest about it now acknowledge that. “People thought he was one of these guys that just ran around and chucked it up,” said an AFC scouting chief. “Decision-making was something people dinged him on, and you never really got to watch him play from the pocket. When you have a guy running around, not being disciplined in the pocket, running out of the pocket all the time, it doesn’t fit to the preconceived notion of what a quarterback is.” And what we’ve seen since is unmistakable—that a guy with that style, all the talent in the world to pull it off and a great head on his shoulders to grow in the areas that didn’t show up on tape as much, can be a premier prospect. Or, as that scouting chief succinctly put it, “People thought, Well, this is a sandlot style, and lived in that box of the traditional pocket-passer forever. And I think now maybe your mind has to be open to the guy with the big arm who just makes plays. Because now who do you think about when you see it? You think of Patrick Mahomes.” So the NFL will change. And maybe if another kid capable of throwing it like Marino once did, but doing it off-platform, and from different arm angles—as one scout put it, “Like a shortstop making a double play, but instead of throwing it to second, he’s throwing it 50 yards across his body”—comes on the scene, he won’t be looked at like he was playing a different sport in college. Sometimes, it’s just as simple as that. Good for Veach for seeing that. Good for us, for getting to watch it again tonight—and for a long time to come.
jetlord 10,209 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 But would Mahomes have been as successful without Reid and Smith tutoring him? Having Hill, Kelce, and Hunt (for a while) didn't hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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