Chiefs v Broncos II game thread

[kkuenn 3,597]

8 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

This bottom line really doesn't seem all that bad to me.

Nope. Kicking the can down the road is not usually what we want but think about this; how much will the cap go skyrocketing back up after next year? Imagine if it goes up to where 2022 would have been without covid? We can pay off contracts then and still have a lot for FA. 176 million to 230? Very possible. Thing is all will be there with it but our players will be signed through it. This is where we can make a lot more signings and extensions.

[jetlord 10,209]

4 minutes ago, kkuenn said:

Nope. Kicking the can down the road is not usually what we want but think about this; how much will the cap go skyrocketing back up after next year? Imagine if it goes up to where 2022 would have been without covid? We can pay off contracts then and still have a lot for FA. 176 million to 230? Very possible. Thing is all will be there with it but our players will be signed through it. This is where we can make a lot more signings and extensions.

That's all true, but reminds me of a man who borrowed to buy a new BMW because he was expecting a raise the next year.

[kkuenn 3,597]

3 minutes ago, jetlord said:

That's all true, but reminds me of a man who borrowed to buy a new BMW because he was expecting a raise the next year.

Well the NFL will rebound nicely. Almost a guarantee unless covid fear mongering goes on for 2 plus years.

[artsy 1,137]

1 minute ago, kkuenn said:

Well the NFL will rebound nicely. Almost a guarantee unless covid fear mongering goes on for 2 plus years.

If were still in this same place next year with the COVID hysteria, even though there will be access to vaccines...Then we really do now that there is something crazy going on.

[xen 1,010,220]

1 hour ago, jetlord said:

If the cap goes to $176.1 million as is now projected, can the Chiefs afford even the cheap one year deals?  Clark and Hitchens are pretty much locked in for next season and we don't yet have replacements for Fisher or Schwartz so I'm not sure how the Chiefs create cap space other than restructuring contracts.  They'll also need money to reward Neiman with a long term contract.  😉

If they're signing vet min deals, especially with the vet exceptions, they'd just be replacing other salaries already counting in the top 53.  Cap impact would typically be minimal.

[xen 1,010,220]

55 minutes ago, kkuenn said:

Nope. Kicking the can down the road is not usually what we want but think about this; how much will the cap go skyrocketing back up after next year? Imagine if it goes up to where 2022 would have been without covid? We can pay off contracts then and still have a lot for FA. 176 million to 230? Very possible. Thing is all will be there with it but our players will be signed through it. This is where we can make a lot more signings and extensions.

Owners put off the salary cap accounting for next year, which would normally be done this week, for a month.  They want to work on the new TV contracts I believe.  When the new TV contracts kick in they may do very well.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

7 hours ago, xen said:

Sure, speed helps but Andy is probably the best schematic coach I've ever seen on offense, and most definitely the best KC has ever had.  His ability to scheme guys open is amazing.  The downside is, to be able to do this, WRs have to know every WR position so they can move around.  That, and how complicated the offense is, leads to WRs taking longer to develop than most systems.  Which is why we have people bitching about Mecole.  I guess I'm old enough to remember when fans thought Tyreek was just going to be a gadget player and had to be schemed open his first 2 years.

Yeah I don’t think he is a bust but I’ll disagree on his routes.  There is a reason he wasn’t producing a lot during Watkins absence.   And while I think it can be tough to learn Andy’s system, Watkins came in during one offseason and learned them all.   I remember Andy saying they were throwing the book at Watkins and he was getting it.   This is back end of year two and he still runs sloppy routes.   That’s not a great sign if this guy wants to be the #2.  Also rumors of our interest in Henry Ruggs this year can’t be a great sign for the staffs confidence in him being a #2 any time soon

[xen 1,010,220]

48 minutes ago, Lamardirts said:

Yeah I don’t think he is a bust but I’ll disagree on his routes.  There is a reason he wasn’t producing a lot during Watkins absence.   And while I think it can be tough to learn Andy’s system, Watkins came in during one offseason and learned them all.   I remember Andy saying they were throwing the book at Watkins and he was getting it.   This is back end of year two and he still runs sloppy routes.   That’s not a great sign if this guy wants to be the #2.  Also rumors of our interest in Henry Ruggs this year can’t be a great sign for the staffs confidence in him being a #2 any time soon

Mecole does not have the body type to be an X receiver so I don't think we drafted him for that.  He is a Y/Slot receiver who can do some but not nearly all of an X's job.  

Watkins was already a pro with years of experience before he got in our system so not an apt comparison to me.

His routes have objectively improved in year 2.  Note I did not say he's where he needs to be yo maximize effectiveness in our system, only that it is an observable fact that his routes have improved from last year.  But yes, he does still fuck up too much.

[mex 65,581]

6 hours ago, jetlord said:

The Chiefs should have tried to punch it in, but experience with this line shows that they have to do it someplace other than the A gap.  Reiter and Wylie are beaten before the RB even has the ball in his hands.  The Chiefs aren't alone in that regard.  Several games this week we've seen teams fail on multiple attempts from the one.  What gets me is a team with first and goal from the four that makes three on first down then passes on the next two.  Saw that several times as well.  I also don't understand the idea of deep handoffs on short yardage plays.  Guess that's why my NFL head coaching career was so short. 

Guess it depends on the style of your RBs

I know bell is a patience guy... CEH is more of a quick hit guy where you gamble the gap will be cleared

it's all situational I suppose... but at the one yard line... gotta stay vertical

[mex 65,581]

5 hours ago, artsy said:

If were still in this same place next year with the COVID hysteria, even though there will be access to vaccines...Then we really do now that there is something crazy going on.

if you haven't figured out there's something crazy going on RIGHT NOW, next year nobody will notice... or care

good grief it's been 9 months of "3 weeks to flatten the curve"

next year it'll be Covid-20

[Lamardirts 2,114]

5 hours ago, xen said:

If they're signing vet min deals, especially with the vet exceptions, they'd just be replacing other salaries already counting in the top 53.  Cap impact would typically be minimal.

I think we only have 36 on the books for next year and with those we are quite a bit over if the cap is 176.    Again I think they keep it as for 2021 and 2022 then increase it after that.   
 

If they do drop it to 176 then I think we would have to think long and hard about drafting a LT in the first and rolling with Niang at RT.   Getting rid of Schwartz and Fisher would save us nearly 20 million.  Then maybe draft a OC in the 2nd.
 

We are stuck with Clark and Hitchens through 2022 and the only flexibility is restricting HB.  
 

Thankfully we will have like 8-9 draft picks to fill holes on this team.  
 

 

[jetlord 10,209]

31 minutes ago, Lamardirts said:

I think we only have 36 on the books for next year and with those we are quite a bit over if the cap is 176.    Again I think they keep it as for 2021 and 2022 then increase it after that.   
 

If they do drop it to 176 then I think we would have to think long and hard about drafting a LT in the first and rolling with Niang at RT.   Getting rid of Schwartz and Fisher would save us nearly 20 million.  Then maybe draft a OC in the 2nd.
 

We are stuck with Clark and Hitchens through 2022 and the only flexibility is restricting HB.  
 

Thankfully we will have like 8-9 draft picks to fill holes on this team.  
 

 

Schwartz may have long term back issues so we can't be sure he'll be back 100%.  Losing both him and Fisher would be risky.  Niang and draft pick to man the OT spots is going to hurt for a while.  Add in a new OC and the line will be pretty raw with lots of growing pains.  Will Remmers stay?  Is Rankin good enough to start?  So many O-line questions and I don't think this is a banner for OT draftees. 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

8 hours ago, kkuenn said:

Trade his ass and cut a couple more contracts not living up to the deal. LDT would be another. Taking Mahomes 21 million roster bonus and converting g it to a signing bonus over 5 years is going to happen. You can restructure Hill, Clark again and Jones.  Cut Okafor etc. Many of it explained here

 

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-report/how-the-chiefs-can-survive-the-2021-salary-cap

 

How the Chiefs can get Under $175 Million in Salary Cap Hits in 2021

The NFL has ruled on how potential revenue shortfalls will affect the salary cap, and the news isn’t great for the Kansas City Chiefs.

The lowest the 2021 salary cap can now drop, due to lower-than-expected profits because of COVID-19, is $175 million. This would be a drop of $23.2 million compared to the 2020 salary cap.

For some teams, this number won’t be terribly hard to hit. The Indianapolis Colts have an effective salary cap space of over $108 million in 2021. For other teams, this number might be nearly impossible to hit. The Eagles are $54 million over the previously-projected salary cap in 2021, per overthecap.com, and this projection (along with the Colts') is based on the salary cap rising.

Where do the Chiefs land? Closer to the Eagles, but not exactly in their special slice of salary cap hell. As of now, if the salary cap was $175 million and cap rollovers were factored in, the Chiefs would be roughly $21.6 million over the salary cap in 2021.

“Roughly” is used intentionally here, as the specifics of how exactly opted-out players will impact the cap is unknown right now. The general consensus seems to be that if a player opts out of the season this year, then their contract will “toll,” essentially shifting their current contract down the road by one year.

The Chiefs have had two players opt out of the 2020 season: running back Damien Williams and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. Their combined $8.2 million salary cap hit will now carry over into the 2021 season and will be taken off the 2020 salary cap.

Note: There is a bit of confusion about how exactly LDT’s contract will toll as the contract, before he opted out, would have voided in 2021. Now that his contract tolls, his number becomes a bit uncertain.

All of this is a fancy way of saying that if a player opts out of the 2020 season, their contract doesn’t count on the 2020 salary cap.

One thing that must be considered when talking about the 2021 salary cap is that the Chiefs only have 50 players under contract in 2021 as it currently stands, according to Over the Cap. A ton of good players and solid depth will also become free agents next year, including names like Charvarius Ward (RFA), Sammy Watkins, Bashaud Breeland, Daniel Sorenson, Mike Pennel, and more. The Chiefs will need to retain or replace this depth next year in order to stay competitive for a Super Bowl.

If we consider all these things, it still all leads to the same conclusion. The Chiefs will need to make some tough choices in 2021 if the salary cap does indeed come in at $175 million. However, there are many ways for the Chiefs to hit this mark and it will require more salary cap genius by Brett Veach and company to do so.

For the following examples, a team salary cap of $187.8 million will be assumed as the Chiefs salary cap in 2021. This is the $175 million set by the league, plus the $12.8 million in salary cap space the Chiefs have right now.

Patrick Mahomes’ roster bonus

The first thing the Chiefs will almost assuredly look at in order to save money is Patrick Mahomes’ $21.7 million roster bonus.

In The Art of NFL Contracts: Part 4, I went over how teams can restructure contracts to save money, and that is mainly what the Chiefs would do with Mahomes’ roster bonus. The Chiefs would convert the money in a roster bonus to a signing bonus, which the team could then spread out over five years against the salary cap.

If the Chiefs convert all of Mahomes’ 2021 roster bonus to a signing bonus, the team can immediately save $17.4 million. This doesn’t come without a cost, however. Mahomes’ salary cap hit until 2025 would go up by $4.4 million each year. This isn’t a small chunk of change.

The Chiefs can choose a smaller portion to convert to a signing bonus, but Mahomes’ roster bonus is definitely the first place the Chiefs will be looking for instant salary cap savings, as Mahomes is the safest bet the Chiefs can mortgage some of the future on.

2021 salary cap savings:

Convert full roster bonus: $17.4 million

Convert $12 million of roster bonus: $9.6 million

Restructure veteran contracts

After Mahomes, there are other players that could be in line for contract restructurings.

Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Tyreek Hill are all established veterans that would have multiple years on their contracts in 2021 that could be targeted for savings by converting salaries or roster bonuses into signing bonuses. We already saw Frank Clark restructure in the 2020 offseason, so he seems fine with the idea of doing this.

One thing to remember with contract restructures is that it makes the player harder to cut in the future, due to pushing guaranteed money later into the deal. This can be seen with linebacker Anthony Hitchens, as he is currently uncuttable because he restructured his contract by a fair bit in the 2019 offseason, pushing guaranteed money into the later parts of his deal.

Jones, Clark, and Hill are established veterans for the Chiefs who would be good bets still, so they will be prime candidates for restructures come 2021. Like Mahomes, their whole salaries/roster bonuses don’t have to be converted, but if they were, that would mean the most immediate salary cap savings.

2021 salary cap savings:

Tyreek Hill, convert full roster bonus of $11.8 million: $5.9 million

Chris Jones, convert full base salary of $20.6 million: $13.7 million

Frank Clark, convert full base salary of $17.6 million: $11.7 million

Cut Eric Fisher

There is only one player the Chiefs could cut to save more than the $11.5 million in salary cap space the Chiefs would get back if they cut left tackle Eric Fisher, and that would be cutting Tyrann Mathieu. The latter scenario seems very unlikely currently, so the safest bet for a large salary cap savings cut is Fisher.

Whether this happens would most likely be predicated on whether Lucas Niang progresses nicely off his injury and in rookie year. It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs releasing a safe, starting left tackle if they do not have a solid replacement. If Niang is ready though, Fisher’s time on the Chiefs might be coming to an end.

2021 salary cap savings: Cut in 2021 offseason: $11.5 million

Cut Anthony Hitchens

In the 2021 offseason, Hitchens is finally cuttable.

Possibly Brett Veach’s worst move as GM, Hitchens has never contributed enough to justify his contract. A restructure in 2019 has basically made him uncuttable until 2021 at the earliest, and even then, he would have to be cut with a post-June 1 designation, spreading out his dead money over two seasons.

Much like cutting Fisher, whether Hitchens is cut is probably dependent on how a 2020 rookie looks this year. If Willie Gay Jr. progresses nicely and can assume the role as the play-caller on defense, it might be Hitchens’ last season with the Chiefs.

2021 salary cap savings: Cut with June 1 designation in 2021 offseason: $6.5 million

Cut Alex Okafor

Whether Okafor stays with the Chiefs in 2021 will matter on how well he plays in 2020, and even that might not be enough.

The veteran makes almost $8 million in 2021 and with only $2 million in dead cap space, so he is a prime cut candidate to get the Chiefs closer to the lower cap. Okafor would have to play extremely well for the Chiefs to not be enticed by this amount of salary cap savings.

2021 salary cap savings: Cut in 2021 offseason: $5.95 million

Extend some veterans

There are a couple of veteran players the Chiefs could extend to lower their cap hit in 2021 to provide some relief.

The main player to monitor for this is Tyrann Mathieu. In 2021, Mathieu will be entering the final year of his contract that he signed with the Chiefs in 2019. He will carry a hefty salary of $19.7 million, which is the highest single-season salary cap hit for a safety in NFL history. If the Chiefs wish to keep Mathieu on another contract, then extending him and moving some of this money to later years in the extension long-term would be a good way to save money in 2021. The amount saved is entirely dependent on how the contract is structured, but the Chiefs could get an ample amount of salary cap room from this.

Other veterans like Travis Kelce and Mitchell Schwartz carry salary cap hits that are probably lower than their real value in 2021, having a cap hit of $9 million and $10 million respectively. New deals for them could lower their 2021 cap hit potentially, but it’d shave only a few million off, unless the contracts have very creative structures.

2021 salary cap savings:

Tyrann Mathieu, realistic savings in new contract: around $10 million

Travis Kelce, realistic savings in new contract: around $2 million

Mitchell Schwartz, realistic savings in new contract: around $3 million

Putting it all together

So, what could a realistic Chiefs cut-down look like?

Let’s assume they go for Mahomes' contract first. I don’t think the Chiefs want to convert all of Mahomes’ roster bonus to a signing bonus, so let’s do $16 million of it. This saves $12.8 million and the Chiefs are now $5.6 million over the 2021 salary cap.

Now suppose Lucas Niang is ready for action and impresses the coaches in practice enough to where they are comfortable with him at left tackle. The Chiefs then can cut Eric Fisher. This saves $11.5 million and the Chiefs are now $5.9 million under the 2021 salary cap.

Alex Okafor has a fine, but not great 2020 season. While he’d be a nice player to keep on a pay cut, he definitely won’t stay for $8 million. Let’s assume he won’t take a pay cut so the Chiefs cut him. This saves $5.95 million and the Chiefs are now $11.85 million under the 2021 salary cap.

Now Chris Jones has another great 2020 season so the Chiefs are comfortable with keeping Jones through the remainder of his contract. They decide to restructure some of his base salary to save more in 2021. This saves $5.3 million and the Chiefs are now $17.15 million under the 2021 salary cap.

From here, the Chiefs have enough cap space to go through a quiet offseason, re-sign some depth players, and sign their rookies in the 2021 draft. If the Chiefs wish to do more they could look at Hitchens or save a few million by extending Kelce or Schwartz.

Brett Veach has proven in the 2020 offseason that he and his salary cap team are very good at manipulating the salary cap and structuring contracts to do so. Mahomes’ contract is especially a feat of great structure that has given the Chiefs many avenues to manufacture salary cap space at will for many years into the future. Veach and co will have to use all these avenues next year to fit under a salary cap that might bottom out, but it certainly isn’t impossible to do so as the team currently stands. Hopefully, Brett Veach is up for an encore performance in 2021.

 

I dont think Fisher is playing that badly. I think he's a solid tackle. I mean I wouldnt mind an upgrade, but we don't want to have to replace the entire line in one offseason do we?

[kkuenn 3,597]

1 hour ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I dont think Fisher is playing that badly. I think he's a solid tackle. I mean I wouldnt mind an upgrade, but we don't want to have to replace the entire line in one offseason do we?

As well as they have done this year? We just might have to.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

How the Chiefs can get Under $175 Million in Salary Cap Hits in 2021

Whoever wrote that article doesn't know what they are talking about.   We have 36 players under contract next year.  We are stuck with Frank Clark, LDT, and Hitchens.   Damien Williams, Chad Henne, and Schwartz could save you 10 million give or take.  Restructuring HB could also help.   

What I think saves us is if the cap drops to 176 million we could possibly find some free agents on one year deals more than normal hoping to cash in on the windfall in 2022.  So maybe we could fill some holes with some FA wanting a chance for a ring (I know we alreayd enjoy that benefit but I think this could happen even more).   8 draft picks in the first 5 rounds also helps.   Plus guys like Ward, Pringle and Darrel Williams could be RFA tendered.   Veach will have to work some magic but if he does that could really open things up for us in 2022.  

[xen 1,010,220]

5 hours ago, Lamardirts said:

How the Chiefs can get Under $175 Million in Salary Cap Hits in 2021

Whoever wrote that article doesn't know what they are talking about.   We have 36 players under contract next year.  We are stuck with Frank Clark, LDT, and Hitchens.   Damien Williams, Chad Henne, and Schwartz could save you 10 million give or take.  Restructuring HB could also help.   

What I think saves us is if the cap drops to 176 million we could possibly find some free agents on one year deals more than normal hoping to cash in on the windfall in 2022.  So maybe we could fill some holes with some FA wanting a chance for a ring (I know we alreayd enjoy that benefit but I think this could happen even more).   8 draft picks in the first 5 rounds also helps.   Plus guys like Ward, Pringle and Darrel Williams could be RFA tendered.   Veach will have to work some magic but if he does that could really open things up for us in 2022.  

Honestly 36 is on the low end of average as far as number of players contracted 1 year out.  If you go through each team for 2021 most teams have somewhere in the 30's or 40's in terms of numbers of players under contract one year out.  

Then you have shittily managed teams like Houston with 52.   If you want to see a team in trouble, hell Nawlins is 93m over the projected cap with 44 players under contract.

Even this year, other than a few guys we'll lose in free agency most of the rest of the 53 is min contracts.

The cap is only a problem if your GM makes it a problem.  We've seen time and time again savvy GM's around the league skirt right around it.

Well, I mean not in KC (until Veach) but you know, other teams in the past that had good GM's.

[Adamixoye 604]

The cap is at least kind of fake.  Everything is malleable.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

12 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

The cap is at least kind of fake.  Everything is malleable.

It is malleable because up until this year you always have cap years that grow from year to year and how you structure the contracts.   With a massive cap shrink that has the potential to cripple you if you have a couple Berry/Houston deals that don’t work out.    But I think Veach will navigate us through just fine.   This extra picks really help us at the perfect time.