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13 minutes ago, AFCWEST said:

Why? Are you assuming Pitts will lose more games?

No. They have to lose for us to get number 1 either way. And if they do it will be to an afc team.  So another loss doesnt matter to us. It changes nothing.  We need a steelers loss either way. 

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17 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

No. They have to lose for us to get number 1 either way. And if they do it will be to an afc team.  So another loss doesnt matter to us. It changes nothing.  We need a steelers loss either way. 

The Chiefs can lose again without losing a #1 seed only if it's to N.o. or ATL.  A loss to MIA would pretty much end it.  If PIT wins out, it won't matter.  PIT was exposed tonight.  They are currently 1.5 favorites over the Bills and CLE or IND could trip them up.  Things are looking good for the Chiefs if they don't blow the fish game. 

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6 minutes ago, jetlord said:

The Chiefs can lose again without losing a #1 seed only if it's to N.o. or ATL.  A loss to MIA would pretty much end it.  If PIT wins out, it won't matter.  PIT was exposed tonight.  They are currently 1.5 favorites over the Bills and CLE or IND could trip them up.  Things are looking good for the Chiefs if they don't blow the fish game. 

Yes.  Thats what he said and i said poorly. A saints loss matters not. 

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Steelers schedule:

Bills-L, we take #1 unless we lose to Phins or Chargers

Cinnzy-L, we take #1 only if we win out, any lose and they take #1

Colts-L, we take #1 but can only lose to Falcons.  Any other lose and they take #1

Browns-L, we take #1 but can only lose to Falcons.  Any other lose and they take #1

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Balto said:

Steelers schedule:

Bills-L, we take #1 unless we lose to Phins or Chargers

Cinnzy-L, we take #1 only if we win out, any lose and they take #1

Colts-L, we take #1 but can only lose to Falcons.  Any other lose and they take #1

Browns-L, we take #1 but can only lose to Falcons.  Any other lose and they take #1

 

 

Why does it make a difference whether the Chiefs lose to N.O. instead of the Falcons?  Seems like it would be the same.

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Tiebreakers - Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss
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35 minutes ago, Balto said:

Steelers schedule:

Bills-L, we take #1 unless we lose to Phins or Chargers

Cinnzy-L, we take #1 only if we win out, any lose and they take #1

Colts-L, we take #1 but can only lose to Falcons.  Any other lose and they take #1

Browns-L, we take #1 but can only lose to Falcons.  Any other lose and they take #1

 

 

If stillers lose a division game and we lose to an nfc team i think it would go to strength of victory wouldn't it?

No head to head

We would have identical division records 

Common game record the same

Conference 1 loss each

We would have the tiebreaker on strength of victory

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8 hours ago, xen said:

Tiebreakers - Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

Thats the tiebreaker for a division champion. Division record doesnt factor in a tiebreaker with the steelers. I think. 

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Not to repeat things, but here's how I'm looking at the tiebreaker scenarios:

  • We both finish 15-1:  Steelers get it based on conference record
  • We both finish 14-2:  any Steelers loss now evens the conference record, provided that we beat Miami and LA.
    • If we lose to the Dolphins or Chargers, we lose the #1.
    • If that Steelers loss is to the Bills, that swings common games to us (by my count there are 5 common games, meeting the minimum of 4, depending on how they count the Ravens and Broncos who both played one team once and the other team twice)
      • In this scenario we can afford for our final loss (to get to 14-2) to be to the Saints or Falcons because it doesn't play into the tiebreakers at all.
    • If the Steelers lose to someone other than the Bills, then the tiebreaker gets kicked to Strength of Victory, followed by Strength of Schedule.
      • Right now both are very tight:  http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcsosag.html
      • However, in this scenario, because of strength of victory it would be preferable for us to beat the Saints and lose to the Falcons rather than vice versa.
  • We both finish 13-3:  most of the above still applies
    • Best case for us is if the Steelers lose to the Bills and we don't lose both AFC games
    • Browns and Bills are still technically in the mix at this record (they would both need to win out), I didn't work out those scenarios
  • I don't think we should be considering scenarios at 12-4 or 11-5, those would be disasters.
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2 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

Not to repeat things, but here's how I'm looking at the tiebreaker scenarios:

  • We both finish 15-1:  Steelers get it based on conference record
  • We both finish 14-2:  any Steelers loss now evens the conference record, provided that we beat Miami and LA.
    • If we lose to the Dolphins or Chargers, we lose the #1.
    • If that Steelers loss is to the Bills, that swings common games to us (by my count there are 5 common games, meeting the minimum of 4, depending on how they count the Ravens and Broncos who both played one team once and the other team twice)
      • In this scenario we can afford for our final loss (to get to 14-2) to be to the Saints or Falcons because it doesn't play into the tiebreakers at all.
    • If the Steelers lose to someone other than the Bills, then the tiebreaker gets kicked to Strength of Victory, followed by Strength of Schedule.
      • Right now both are very tight:  http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcsosag.html
      • However, in this scenario, because of strength of victory it would be preferable for us to beat the Saints and lose to the Falcons rather than vice versa.
  • We both finish 13-3:  most of the above still applies
    • Best case for us is if the Steelers lose to the Bills and we don't lose both AFC games
    • Browns and Bills are still technically in the mix at this record (they would both need to win out), I didn't work out those scenarios
  • I don't think we should be considering scenarios at 12-4 or 11-5, those would be disasters.

Well said...CLAP CLAP.  Love the bullet points!

Looks like we all should go buy a Bills hat!!!

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