Jump to content

How about the Browns?


Recommended Posts

20 hours ago, azchief21 said:

For the playoffs we're going local, a place called the Phat Turtle in Cave Creek. I belong to an AZ Chiefs Kingdom group and they are saying it's as close as it gets. For the SB, I'll fly in some Joe's like we did last year.

When should I be there?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

https://captaincomeback.blog/2021/01/15/nfl-2020-divisional-round-browns-at-chiefs/

There's not just one thing you need to do to beat KC when it has Mahomes.  In his 9 losses, here are the recurring features:

  • You need to be a good team:  7 out of 9 teams were playoff teams, the other two were 7-9 and 8-8 but were > .500 at the time they beat the Chiefs
  • You need to score a lot of points:  8 of 9 teams scored 29+ points (I'll note the only exception was the IND game when Mahomes clearly aggravated an existing ankle injury)
  • You need to move the ball:  the opposing team had 450+ yards in 6 of 9 games and 170+ rushing hards in 6 of 9 games.  But it's not as simple as just rushing.
    • In 4 games the opponent hit both marks
    • In 4 games they hit one mark but not the other (two of each)
    • In just one game they did neither
  • You generally need to win the time of possession battle, although this is more descriptive than predictive:  it just means your offense is working and KC's might be struggling a little.  As most of the rest of these points show, it's not about "ball control" or keeping it close.  You have to be efficient and score a lot of points.
  • You need KC to defeat itself:
    • KC has 8+ penalties and 60+ yards in 7 of 9 losses.  Only exceptions were the two losses to NE.
    • KC has at least one turnover in 7 of 9 losses, and multiple turnovers in 4 of them.
  • You need to close it out:  because Mahomes has never lost a game by more than one score, you need to do something to close it out.  That could be:
    • A score in the final seconds or OT (LAC, NE x2)
    • Running out the clock so you don't give it back (HOU, LV)
    • Adding a late score to take a two-score lead (SEA, IND); Mahomes will still make is a one-score game then you need to recover the onside attempt
    • Actually stopping Mahomes when he has a chance to take back the lead or tie (he threw INTs vs. LAR and then the blocked FG against TEN)

If you look at the charts in the article, generally you need several of these things to go right, not just one.  HOU needed all of them to go right.  LAC "only" needed about half of them to go right.

So as you're worried about the Browns, Bills, Ravens, Packers, etc., ask yourself how many of these things you see happening.  They're all good teams, and many of them can run.  But if we play clean (with respect to penalties and turnovers) and slow them down at all, we're nearly unbeatable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
 
 
Player Injury Participation*
CB Rashad Fenton Ankle/Foot LP
LB Willie Gay Jr. Ankle DNP
WR Sammy Watkins Calf DNP
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire Ankle DNP
TE Deon Yelder Groin DNP
RB Le’Veon Bell Knee FP
OT Mike Remmers Back FP
LB Ben Niemann Hamstring FP
DT Derrick Nnadi Knee FP
WR Demarcus Robinson Back FP
DB Armani Watts Concussion FP

* DNP = Did not participate | LP = Limited participation | FP = Full participation | NIR = Not injury related

After a limited practice on Wednesday where Clyde Edwards-Helaire was spotted with heavily-taped ankles, he did not practice on Thursday. It’s unclear if he’s getting a rest day en route to a start or if he suffered a setback in his recovery from a high ankle sprain. Friday’s practice status will likely determine whether he’s available for the playoffs or not. TE Deon Yelder, who was also limited on Wednesday, did not practice on Thursday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
 
 
 
 
29 minutes ago, Chiefmanzada said:

Will Watkins play? If not, not really worried. D Rob, Hardman and Pringle can take care of it. Just tired of seeing Watkins in a wheelchair while talking smack on twitter 

Done with that dude. How you gonna talk some shit on your opponent on Twitter, then not suit up? 

 

#HammyWatkins

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
5 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

https://captaincomeback.blog/2021/01/15/nfl-2020-divisional-round-browns-at-chiefs/

There's not just one thing you need to do to beat KC when it has Mahomes.  In his 9 losses, here are the recurring features:

  • You need to be a good team:  7 out of 9 teams were playoff teams, the other two were 7-9 and 8-8 but were > .500 at the time they beat the Chiefs
  • You need to score a lot of points:  8 of 9 teams scored 29+ points (I'll note the only exception was the IND game when Mahomes clearly aggravated an existing ankle injury)
  • You need to move the ball:  the opposing team had 450+ yards in 6 of 9 games and 170+ rushing hards in 6 of 9 games.  But it's not as simple as just rushing.
    • In 4 games the opponent hit both marks
    • In 4 games they hit one mark but not the other (two of each)
    • In just one game they did neither
  • You generally need to win the time of possession battle, although this is more descriptive than predictive:  it just means your offense is working and KC's might be struggling a little.  As most of the rest of these points show, it's not about "ball control" or keeping it close.  You have to be efficient and score a lot of points.
  • You need KC to defeat itself:
    • KC has 8+ penalties and 60+ yards in 7 of 9 losses.  Only exceptions were the two losses to NE.
    • KC has at least one turnover in 7 of 9 losses, and multiple turnovers in 4 of them.
  • You need to close it out:  because Mahomes has never lost a game by more than one score, you need to do something to close it out.  That could be:
    • A score in the final seconds or OT (LAC, NE x2)
    • Running out the clock so you don't give it back (HOU, LV)
    • Adding a late score to take a two-score lead (SEA, IND); Mahomes will still make is a one-score game then you need to recover the onside attempt
    • Actually stopping Mahomes when he has a chance to take back the lead or tie (he threw INTs vs. LAR and then the blocked FG against TEN)

If you look at the charts in the article, generally you need several of these things to go right, not just one.  HOU needed all of them to go right.  LAC "only" needed about half of them to go right.

So as you're worried about the Browns, Bills, Ravens, Packers, etc., ask yourself how many of these things you see happening.  They're all good teams, and many of them can run.  But if we play clean (with respect to penalties and turnovers) and slow them down at all, we're nearly unbeatable.

 Nice blog

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

On Friday, HC Andy Reid confirmed that the team would be without both WR Sammy Watkins and LB Willie Gay Jr. on Sunday against the Browns. Watkins, of course, earned the nickname "Playoff Sammy" for his ability to show up and show out during the playoffs. A total of four players didn't participate in practice on Friday for the Chiefs. Among them was rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Reid noted that Edwards-Helaire is making progress in recovery from injury. He'll be listed as questionable with a chance to play against Cleveland. "A couple of days ago he moved around really well," Reid said of Edwards-Helaire. "Then we've just kind of backed off of him. He's still doing stuff, just not with the group. You know we'll just see how he does here and we're literally taking it day-by-day. So we'll see how it rolls." One modicum of good news, Reid confirmed the Chiefs could possibly be getting special teams ace Dorian O'Daniel back off of injured reserve this week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
 
 

I can see more than ever how the pundits just talk themselves into a weird contrarian take in order to have something to talk about.

Any rational matchup analysis should basically be summarized as this:

  • The Chiefs have clearly been the better team over the season
  • Each team has offensive strengths that match up with the other team's defensive weaknesses
  • KC will win unless they have several things go wrong, which is possible but not the most likely scenario
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
 
 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
  • Create New...