kccrow 529 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I commend the effort.... its just that I don't personally get much from looking at 3-game bests and the like. I think looking game by game against his averages is reasonable. I think even resetting his baseline weekly is okay, but otherwise this just looks like a large jumble of relatively meaningless stats. If you want to look at something on a weekly basis, that has shown to be relevant with 30 years of data to back it up, than look at Alex's ANYPA versus the team's result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 605 Posted September 17, 2014 Author Share Posted September 17, 2014 Thanks, KCCrow. I think I'll just summarize what he beat and start doing more of what you said. I won't post the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Not sure how well read you are on ANY/A (or ANYPA) which is Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, but it was a stat created by Pro Football Reference, and it is widely considered the best stat in correlation with Wins. You calculate it as such: [Pass Yards + (20*Pass TDS) - (45*Interceptions) - Sack Yards]/(Pass Attempts + Sacks) Generally speaking, a great year has an ANYPA around 10, with average QBs being around 5.8. 30 years of data shows that better than 80% of the time, the team with the QB with the higher ANYPA wins the game. Sometimes, games are won on great special teams play and turnovers outside the QBs control, but as a rule, this measure of Pass efficiency is a great measuring stick for overall team performance. Did the defense force the other teams quarterback to be inefficient? And, did the team's offense allow its QB to be more efficient? Alex Smith against Tennessee had an ANYPA of 1.62 Jake Locker, meanwhile had an ANYPA of 7.65 This shows KC should have been blown out. Alex Smith against Denver had an average-ish 5.61 ANYPA Peyton Manning, however, had a superb ANYPA of 11.00 This shows KC should have been beaten easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 605 Posted September 17, 2014 Author Share Posted September 17, 2014 Looking at this: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03/gamelog// I get: 2.49 and 6.07. Where do you get the 1.62? I only see ANYPA on overall season stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Looking at this: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03/gamelog// I get: 2.49 and 6.07. Where do you get the 1.62? I only see ANYPA on overall season stats. ANY/A and AY/A are not the same statistical measure. You're reading the wrong stat. I calculated it myself using the formula I provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 605 Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 Reasonable (not probable per se) Possibilities (Didn't include totals, just what he would need to get versus the Dolphins.) 1 game: 29 completions, 310 yards, 5 Passing TDs (been done before), 11 rushes, 57 yards, 1 Rushing TD. 2 games: 28 completions, 306 yards, 5 Passing TDs, 13 rushes, 53 yards, 1 Rushing TD. 3 games: 357 yards, 12 rushes, 36 yards, 1 Rushing TD. 4 games: 32 completions, 13 rushes, 26 yards, 1 Rushing TD. 5 games: 344 yards, 12 rushes, 23 yards. 6 games: 46 yards rushing. 7 games: 38 rushing yards. 8 games: 256 passing yards, 3 Passing TDs, 66 Rushing Yards. 9 games: 216 Passing Yards, 2 Passing TDs, 48 Rushing Yards. 10 games: 365 Passing Yards, 2 Passing TDs, 66 Rushing Yards. 11 games: 363 Passing Yards, 2 Passing TDs, 44 Rushing Yards. 12 games: 331 Passing Yards, 2 Passing TDs, 14 Rushes, 41 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing TD. 13 games: 4 Passing TDs, 12 Rushes, 19 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing TD. 14 games: 362 Passing Yards, 15 Rushes, 47 Rushing Yards, 1 TD. 15 games: 273 Passing Yards, 4 Passing TDs, 14 Rushes, 47 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing TD. 16 games: 33 completions, 223 Passing Yards, 4 TDs, 8 rushes, 57 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing TD. Bold = More reasonable. Italicized = Would Require Single Game Highs or Greater (unlikely). Neither = Neither too high or low enough to expect. I left out games where he needed more than his playoff high of 378 yards or Oakland 5 TD game. Over 15 carries is unreasonable, as his record is 11. If he got 66 yards, he'd best all of his rushing streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 605 Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 I will do one for Charles once he gets 12 or more carries in a game. I have to see him healthy and part of the gameplan before I spend that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kychief 239 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I commend the effort as well.. just hope he wins and I don't need a chart to see the shit he is throwing to in the end zone... I was watching the sunday nite game where cutler would just throw up a prayer and marshall was pulling in garbage passes with one hand... kapernick was passing to crabtree..a receiver that attacks the ball..and possibly the best in the game right now A Boldin... even rookies at the end of the game.. such as the player on the jets fight for the ball... Alex's receivers get 0 separation. Wait for the ball to touch their belly..(Bowe)..or fall the fuck down inside the redzone without even being touched..(Avery)...its shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I commend the effort as well.. just hope he wins and I don't need a chart to see the shit he is throwing to in the end zone... I was watching the sunday nite game where cutler would just throw up a prayer and marshall was pulling in garbage passes with one hand... kapernick was passing to crabtree..a receiver that attacks the ball..and possibly the best in the game right now A Boldin... even rookies at the end of the game.. such as the player on the jets fight for the ball... Alex's receivers get 0 separation. Wait for the ball to touch their belly..(Bowe)..or fall the fuck down inside the redzone without even being touched..(Avery)...its shit. Agreed. If I were KC, I would have cut the lot of them and started fresh with all rookies much like New England did a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kychief 239 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 crow I can't tell if you're making fun or are serious..I guess that in its self shows how bad they are.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 605 Posted September 19, 2014 Author Share Posted September 19, 2014 I commend the effort as well.. just hope he wins and I don't need a chart to see the shit he is throwing to in the end zone... I was watching the sunday nite game where cutler would just throw up a prayer and marshall was pulling in garbage passes with one hand... kapernick was passing to crabtree..a receiver that attacks the ball..and possibly the best in the game right now A Boldin... even rookies at the end of the game.. such as the player on the jets fight for the ball... Alex's receivers get 0 separation. Wait for the ball to touch their belly..(Bowe)..or fall the fuck down inside the redzone without even being touched..(Avery)...its shit. I was going to post a thread entitled, "Jealous" saying I was jealous of teams who have receivers who get separation, who catch with their hands not body, don't jump or fall over for every catch (looking at you Avery), will fight for a ball, and will block (some here do). Also, jealous of teams who have experienced lines that give their QB forever. But then I thought it would sound too much like an Alex Smith excuses thread. You know, I am jealous of teams with Aaron Rodgers and Manning, too - to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 crow I can't tell if you're making fun or are serious..I guess that in its self shows how bad they are.. dead serious. I would have drafted at least 2 WRs this past draft and brought in a handful of UDFAs. Bowe, Avery, Jenkins, Hemingway are all shit and I would have started fresh. Specifically, I would have taken Jordan Matthews in round 1 and Donte Moncrief in round 3... but anyhow that's the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I watch statistics just the same as anyone else, but I don't directly compare them with any other quarterback at a one-for-one basis. The most simple statistics that mean anything to me require basic calculations: Completions-to-interceptions; Dropbacks-to-Team Rush Attempts. After that, I want to see situational statistics, which tell much more of the story: Performance on 3rd Down (with yardage splits for every 5 yards); Performance When Leading/Tied/Trailing; Red Zone Performance. The last statistic I want to see is QBR. Its proprietary formula is ever-changing, and has at times made poor quarterbacks look great, especially mobile quarterbacks (see Mike Florio's 2011 article about QBR). I'm not particularly impressed with any of the major football sites' ranking algorithms. For some reason, Alex Smith has played on horrible teams, clearly was a big factor in important wins, and yet constantly gets ranked poorly among other quarterbacks that often haven't dealt with similar adversity at any point in their careers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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