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[oldtimer 8,686]

Chiefs 2021 7-round mock draft v3.0: Trading down from first round

 

Charles Goldman

Mon, April 12, 2021, 7:15 AM

 

 

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There are just 18 days to go until the 2021 NFL draft.

Each Monday leading up to the draft, I’ll be presenting a new 7-round mock draft scenario with a different theme. This week, we’re doing something that Brett Veach hasn’t done before during his tenure as general manager of the Kansas City Chiefs. We’re going to trade down and out of the first round of the draft.

In order to gauge player availability, I used the mock draft simulator from The Draft Network. Using a custom big board, I ran multiple simulations to see the players most frequently available at each of the Chiefs’ picks in order to compile this mock draft. If players weren’t available with regularity, they were eliminated from contention at a specific pick.

 

Before we take a look at the version 3.0 draft, here’s a look at the details of our trade:

Trade details

Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Chiefs receive pick No. 39 (153 value), No. 113 (30 value), No. 193 (5 value). Panthers receive pick No. 31 (190 value) Find our trade value chart here. Analysis: The Panthers have secured their QB, they still have the No. 8 pick, but they could be aggressive in trying to land some difference makers at a few different positions. Cornerbacks, tight ends and linebackers could be on their mind early. The Chiefs could press for a future seventh-rounder (2 value) to make this trade completely even, but it's not uncommon for teams to take a point or two more or less in value on these trades.

Round 2, Pick 39: NDSU OT Dillon Radunz

AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn

Surprise! The Chiefs trade down and land an offensive tackle with their top draft pick. I can already tell you that this pick won't be a popular one, based on the response that Draft Wire has received from sending Radunz to Kansas City in their mock drafts. I had to take some time this weekend to reassess my opinion on Radunz because Doug Farrar over at Touchdown Wire has him ranked as his No. 4 tackle in the 2021 NFL draft. When an opinion varies so differently on a player, you've got to go back and take another look. Initially, I felt that asking Radunz to be a full-time starter in his first year could amount to trial by fire. Now, I'm not sure that it would be any more a trial by fire than taking a player like Notre Dame's Liam Eichenberg. In fact, I feel like the upside for Radunz is considerably higher than several tackles who've been projected in the late half of the first round. Radunz (6-5, 304) is an explosive athlete and it shows on the tape in both the run game and the passing game. He has the balance, the anticipation, the movement skills, the strength and the mental makeup to find success at the next level. I think he could perhaps find that success quicker than he's been getting credit for. He's working with six-time pro bowler Joe Staley and seems to be committed to improving his game. Sure, Radunz played in the FCS against lesser opponents at North Dakota State, but he was dominant against them. He hasn't allowed a sack since the 2018 college football season when he was a redshirt sophomore. When it was time to play against tougher opponents in the Senior Bowl, Radunz stepped up "Overall Practice Player of the Week" honors. In 2019, that award was given to Oregon QB Justin Herbert, who just happened to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in 2020. I'm still not sure I could get behind Radunz as the pick at No. 31, but in a trade-down situation, he makes a lot of sense as a target for a team like Kansas City. It makes even more sense if they bring in a veteran for competition. Other available players: Notre Dame OT Liam Eichenberg, Ole Miss WR Elijah Moore, Oklahoma C Creed Humphrey

Round 2, Pick 63: Wake Forest DE Carlos Basham Jr.

Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs had the 12th most pressures during the 2020 NFL season, but ranked in the bottom half of the league in sacks. They were also ranked in the top 10 in terms of their blitz percentage last season. The bottom line is they didn't do a good enough job getting after the quarterback without sending the full house. Basham (6-3, 272 pounds) is a player that could really help this team out when they rush four players. He has 137 total pressures over the past three seasons at Wake Forest, including 15 sacks in the past two seasons. The man moves absolutely effortlessly given his size and he knows how to use his hands better than any player in this draft class. I'm not sure that any edge rusher in this class plays with more hustle than Basham and coaches are going to love him for that. If the Chiefs can get this player at No. 63, I think they run to the podium and don't look back. Other available players: Western Michigan WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Texas DE Joseph Ossai, Ohio State LB Pete Werner

Round 3, Pick 94: Boston College TE Hunter Long

Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

This 6-5 and 254-pound tight end has surprisingly little hype heading into the 2021 NFL draft and I can't really figure out why. In 2020, he led the nation in catches by a tight end with 57, recording 657 receiving yards and five touchdowns in the process. He was heavily featured at Boston College because of his versatility. He could line up anywhere, run any route and he was good once he had the ball in his hands. When the ball wasn't going him, Long also showed his worth. He's a physical run-blocker and pass-blocker, evidenced both in-game and in 1-on-1 drills at the Senior Bowl. That's important for when the team runs personnel packages with two or three tight ends on the field. The Chiefs have Travis Kelce and brought back Blake Bell, but that shouldn't preclude them from adding another tight end in the draft. Lessening Kelce's workload will be crucial to his longevity. Long is a player who can play a secondary or tertiary role, but step into a starting role if necessary, especially as he continues to develop. Other available players: Cincinnati OT James Hudson, FSU DB Hamsah Nasirildeen, Northern Iowa OT Spencer Brown

Round 4, Pick 113: Purdue LB Derrick Barnes

Nikos Frazier/Journal & Courier

Barnes put up some insane numbers at just over 6-foot and 238 pounds during his pro day. I feel like you can really see that athleticism pop on tape. The guy can play off-ball linebacker, thumping against the run and covering running backs and tight ends. He can put his hand in the dirt and rush from the edge. He's just a really talented all-around player. During the 2020 season, he amassed 50 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, an interception and a pass defended, mostly playing the off-ball position. The Chiefs need some new blood in the linebacker room after a few seasons where they just haven't seen much development at that position group. Barnes can slide in and play really any of the linebacker positions that Steve Spagnuolo's defense employs. He'd probably back up the SAM and MIKE positions early on. If the team wanted to give Willie Gay Jr. a shot at WILL, that might help him see the field a bit sooner. Other available players: Ohio State RB Trey Sermon, USC S Talanoa Hufanga, East Carolina OT D'Ante Smith

Round 4, Pick 136: UAB WR Austin Watkins Jr.

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Waiting this long to pick up a receiver probably will make a bunch of Chiefs fans uncomfortable. All of the players that I had planned to target in the second and third rounds weren't available. I also didn't want to fall into reaching for a player that I didn't think was a fit or worthy of the draft slot. Watkins Jr. is a player that I'm really high on and I'd probably consider taking him at 113 if Barnes hadn't been available. First of all, he has the best hands in the entire draft class with a 0.0% career drop rate on 98 career catches. His ability to get open using his releases, route-running and general football cunning really impress me. He's also a really physical player, whether we're talking about catching the football of doing the dirty work as a run-blocker. This is a guy who you can grab later in the draft that feels like he could make an early impact, even in Andy Reid's scheme which isn't exactly known to be easy on receivers. Other available players: Louisville WR Dez Fitzpatrick, Grambling C David Moore, UCLA DT Osa Odighizuwa

Round 4, Pick 144: Cincinnati S Darrick Forrest

Tim Flores-USA TODAY Sports

Both safeties from the University of Cincinnati impressed at their pro day and Forrest is definitely a player that I've had my eyes on. He's got really nice range and ball skills on the back end. When he comes up to play in the box or across the middle of the field, you know he's going to lay a big hit. He also has the speed (4.38 40-yard dash) to match up in the slot or against tight ends and running backs in man coverage. Forrest is also going to be a four-phase special teamer at the next level, which will endear him to Dave Toub when he gets to Kansas City. The Chiefs might not have an immediate need at the safety position, but the 2022 season is a different story. Every player not named Juan Thornhill is scheduled to become a free agent that year. It'd serve the team well to add a long-term replacement option in the draft this year. Other available players: Missouri DB Joshuah Bledsoe, South Carolina OG Sadarius Hutcherson, Georgia LB Monty Rice

Round 5, Pick 175: Michigan State CB Shakur Brown

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Brown (5-10, 185 pounds) is a player that has displayed some insane ball skills this past season, posting 25 tackles, five interceptions, four passes defended in seven games played. He only ran a 4.65 at his pro day, but he's faster on tape. Brown played on the outside in college, but I think he shifts into the slot at the next level. The Chiefs have been interested in adding another piece to the cornerback group. I think they want to find a dedicated slot corner because it allows L'Jarius Sneed to play outside and Tyrann Mathieu to roam. Brown has that short-area burst to be successful playing in the slot, but there are going to be questions about deep speed in man coverage. Other available players: Michigan CB Ambry Thomas, Auburn S Jamien Sherwood, Oregon S Brady Breeze

Round 5, Pick 181: BYU DT Khyiris Tonga

Rick Bowmer/USA TODAY Sports

In the run game, Tonga is an immovable object. At 6-4 and over 320 pounds, he's really tough to handle 1-on-1, so he'll command some double teams away from guys like Chris Jones. When he gets a good read on the snap, he can be a bull in a china shop and shoot into the backfield, wrecking a play before it even gets started. In 2020, the senior had 36 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble and five balls batted down. The defensive tackle position might not seem like a need especially after the Chiefs added Jarran Reed, but you can never have too many defensive linemen. Derrick Nnadi and Reed are both set to hit free agency in 2022, so having some foresight might not hurt. Other available players: Wisconsin CB Rachad Wildgoose Jr., Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson, South Carolina WR Shi Smith

Round 6, Pick 193: Iowa WR Brandon Smith

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

The Iowa offense doesn't do receivers many favors heading into the NFL draft. That's certainly the case with Smith after catching passes from Nathan Stanley and Spencer Petras during his career. In 2019, Smith was on his way to being the top wideout for Iowa when an injury ended his campaign prematurely. He finished the year with just 37 catches for 439 yards and five touchdowns. The following season he caught just 23 passes for 231 yards and two scores in seven games played. Smith is certainly one of the more impressive athletes in this draft class. He posted a 39.5 vertical jump and put up 22 repetitions of 225 on the bench press. He only ran a 4.6 in the 40-yard dash, which puts him at a bit of a disadvantage in this group. Still, there's something worth developing for the Chiefs here. Other available players: Pitt S Paris Ford, UCLA WR/RB Demetric Felton, Kentucky C Drake Jackson

Round 6, Pick 207: Florida C Brett Heggie

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs had a scout run the offensive line drills at the Florida pro day. While the interest in the top prospect (Stone Forsythe) is there, it's always possible they came away impressed with another player. Heggie has played in 41 career games with 31 career starts. He started all 12 games at center last season for the Gators, playing on a unit that led the nation in passing yards per game. Heggie's a guy who serves up pancakes in the run game and goes to work in the passing game. His mindset is to block upfront and create time for his quarterback or running back by any means necessary. That's someone that the Chiefs could use as a developmental center working behind a veteran like Austin Blythe. Other available players: Illinois State S Christian Uphoff, Buffalo OT Kayode Awosika, Kent State WR Isaiah McKoy [vertical-gallery id=90963]

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[sith13 1,746]

I like the option of trading down but it all comes down to what the real draft board looks like. Didn't hear much about Radunz and when I just looked him up the boards seem to be divided on him just like the post mentions.

I don't know how this draft would be graded but in general walking away with an OT who mostly stayed away from tough competition in college and a late round OC doesn't look like the solution we need after that dismal SB performance. I like the Long pick though, looks like an ideal compliment to Kelce based on what's written. 

[jetlord 10,209]

3 hours ago, sith13 said:

I like the option of trading down but it all comes down to what the real draft board looks like. Didn't hear much about Radunz and when I just looked him up the boards seem to be divided on him just like the post mentions.

I don't know how this draft would be graded but in general walking away with an OT who mostly stayed away from tough competition in college and a late round OC doesn't look like the solution we need after that dismal SB performance. I like the Long pick though, looks like an ideal compliment to Kelce based on what's written. 

Wonder what other OTs were left on the board besides Radunz and Eichenberg?  #39 seems a little high for him but waiting until round two doesn't work on most mocks for getting  a rated OT.  

[Lamardirts 2,114]

Heard somewhere that Radunz is seen as a OC by a lot of NFL Scouts.   I'd rather take Spencer Brown, Walker Little, and even Stone Forsythe with that first pick.   I do think Basham at 63 is good value and I like rounds 3 and 4.  

[xen 1,010,220]

Radunz is one of my favorite players in this draft and would be an outstanding pick in round 2.  Hell I'd be fine with him at 31 depending on who else is available.  I think he can play tackle, guard or center, so the bust potential is low.  I'd probably have hedged my bets with another tackle since I think both Radunz and Niang can kick inside if they want and excel there, especially with Spencer Brown available at 94 (I'd have definitely taken Brown over Hunter Long).  Great pick.  He can play tackle in the NFL.

Austin Watkins another one of my favorites and a sleeper at receiver.  They guys does a lot of things really well.

I like both of the Cinci safeties.  Basham is great value at 63.  Tonga would be a good replacement for Nnadi.  More of a 2 down nose guy.  Strong as an ox and good value at the end of round 5.

Overall pretty good haul.

[Palangi 788]

I don't like Radunz as a tackle.  Definitely would go with Little,  Brown, or Forsythe there. 

I also like Turner better than Basham. I think Turner has a much higher ceiling. 

I don't like the Michigan state corner.  Not very big or fast.  

I like Tonga as a run suffer but he is already 24 years old.  

 

[SEMO 6,811]

Spencer Brown is my favorite atm.  And, I would have no problem taking him at 31.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

25 minutes ago, SEMO said:

Spencer Brown is my favorite atm.  And, I would have no problem taking him at 31.

Yeah that RAS score was insane.  If we nab a vet and let him come along slowly he probably has the highest ceiling outside of maybe Sewell and Slater.   I'm not high on Radunz.    

[Lamardirts 2,114]

12 hours ago, xen said:

Radunz is one of my favorite players in this draft and would be an outstanding pick in round 2.  Hell I'd be fine with him at 31 depending on who else is available.  I think he can play tackle, guard or center, so the bust potential is low.  I'd probably have hedged my bets with another tackle since I think both Radunz and Niang can kick inside if they want and excel there, especially with Spencer Brown available at 94 (I'd have definitely taken Brown over Hunter Long).  Great pick.  He can play tackle in the NFL.

Austin Watkins another one of my favorites and a sleeper at receiver.  They guys does a lot of things really well.

I like both of the Cinci safeties.  Basham is great value at 63.  Tonga would be a good replacement for Nnadi.  More of a 2 down nose guy.  Strong as an ox and good value at the end of round 5.

Overall pretty good haul.

I'm not as high on Radunz but there are some scouts who see him at C, which would mitigate the risk.   I too would love to double dip just to be safe.   

[SEMO 6,811]

35 minutes ago, Lamardirts said:

Yeah that RAS score was insane.  If we nab a vet and let him come along slowly he probably has the highest ceiling outside of maybe Sewell and Slater.   I'm not high on Radunz.    

I like Radunz.  I just see him more inside.

I still believe that Fisher will be the LT when the season starts.  One year deal.  They were only interested in Trent and went hard after him, with Fish being the fall back plan if that failed.  They haven’t really pursued anyone else, with any urgency,  that we know of.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

26 minutes ago, SEMO said:

I like Radunz.  I just see him more inside.

I still believe that Fisher will be the LT when the season starts.  One year deal.  They were only interested in Trent and went hard after him, with Fish being the fall back plan if that failed.  They haven’t really pursued anyone else, with any urgency,  that we know of.

I agree.  I just think if your gonna draft him that high to move inside it has to be center because we have a log jam at OG, and I think I'd prefer Landon Dickerson at OC than Radunz at that spot.   I do think that is a possibility with Fisher, but we aren't in a rush to sign anyone.   We have most of the leverage at this point with guys like Okung and Villanueva, plus if 6-7 tackles get drafted this year there will most likely be a couple more in the FA pool this summer.   It would be nice to have it addressed to some degree going into the draft so we don't have to take one first two rounds.   

[Balto 723]

I really don't know what my issue is this year...I'm usually all up in mock drafts and trade this or trade that to get all kinds of positions taken care of BUT this year I just want ALL OL!  I'd be happy if our first 4 picks were OL and then go ahead and just take BPA.  No idea why just give me OL OL OL OL OLOL OLLOLOLOLOLOL 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

2 hours ago, Lamardirts said:

I agree.  I just think if your gonna draft him that high to move inside it has to be center because we have a log jam at OG, and I think I'd prefer Landon Dickerson at OC than Radunz at that spot.   I do think that is a possibility with Fisher, but we aren't in a rush to sign anyone.   We have most of the leverage at this point with guys like Okung and Villanueva, plus if 6-7 tackles get drafted this year there will most likely be a couple more in the FA pool this summer.   It would be nice to have it addressed to some degree going into the draft so we don't have to take one first two rounds.   

I honestly don't think even guys like Forsythe and Brown are gonna make it out of rd 2. I think we'd have to do it regardless.

Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, Mayfield, Cosmi, Leatherwood, AVT, Radunz, Forsythe, Eichenberg, Brown...Thats 11 guys we could see go in the first 2 rds. With that kind of depth can you imagine not taking advantage of that and ending up w/ a guy like Brady Christenson as our developmental OT?

[kkuenn 3,597]

44 minutes ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I honestly don't think even guys like Forsythe and Brown are gonna make it out of rd 2. I think we'd have to do it regardless.

Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, Mayfield, Cosmi, Leatherwood, AVT, Radunz, Forsythe, Eichenberg, Brown...Thats 11 guys we could see go in the first 2 rds. With that kind of depth can you imagine not taking advantage of that and ending up w/ a guy like Brady Christenson as our developmental OT?

Trade back. Take them early second round like Brown and then go after Rudunz with late 2nd. Use other top 100 picks then on BPA from what is left.

[sith13 1,746]

We are looking at these prospects as our LTOTF but there's nothing in town to actually let them wait a year. Not sure what the financial sweet spot is but would love to get one of the FA LTs signed before the draft. I'm guessing Fisher or Schwartz is some sort of an insurance policy but both could end up sitting out 2021. 

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

3 hours ago, kkuenn said:

Trade back. Take them early second round like Brown and then go after Rudunz with late 2nd. Use other top 100 picks then on BPA from what is left.

Why 2 tackles? Or you want Radunz on the interior?

[Biggjliv4 1,292]

I'd really like to see us move back up in the 2nd by trading one of our 4th if possible. I think they'll be a run on OT and DE and will force us to reach on one or the other first two rounds. Secure two solid prospects early that can potentially start day 1 then let the cards fall for BPA rest of the way.  

[Lamardirts 2,114]

3 hours ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I honestly don't think even guys like Forsythe and Brown are gonna make it out of rd 2. I think we'd have to do it regardless.

Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, Mayfield, Cosmi, Leatherwood, AVT, Radunz, Forsythe, Eichenberg, Brown...Thats 11 guys we could see go in the first 2 rds. With that kind of depth can you imagine not taking advantage of that and ending up w/ a guy like Brady Christenson as our developmental OT?

Forgetting Jenkins and Little.  I have a hard time seeing 14-15 OT get taken in the first two.  This draft is deep at DE and WR and we are going to see 5-6 qb's taken in the first.   And those teams drafting OT in the first aren't going to be going back to the well in round two for another.     There is going to be some good prospects in the 2nd.   I think because its a huge need for us we worry that all teams see these guys the same way.  

[Lamardirts 2,114]

6 minutes ago, Biggjliv4 said:

I'd really like to see us move back up in the 2nd by trading one of our 4th if possible. I think they'll be a run on OT and DE and will force us to reach on one or the other first two rounds. Secure two solid prospects early that can potentially start day 1 then let the cards fall for BPA rest of the way.  

If we had to use 63 and 95 to get the OT/DE we want in the 2nd I would be all for it.   Solidifying those two positions should be our #1 priority.    Like you said though might only take that 4th.   Walker Little, Spencer Brown, and Stone Forsythe are three guys I would love at the middle to end of the 2nd.   Then in your scenario go get a OC in the 3rd.   

[kkuenn 3,597]

59 minutes ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

Why 2 tackles? Or you want Radunz on the interior?

Radunz for inside. He could always bump out then if needed and we can hedge our bets. Then again, if Creed or the Alabama center is there, we could gamble with a raw LT and go with a very solid C too. LT would have Thuney as would the Center position to really help out.

[kkuenn 3,597]

46 minutes ago, Lamardirts said:

Forgetting Jenkins and Little.  I have a hard time seeing 14-15 OT get taken in the first two.  This draft is deep at DE and WR and we are going to see 5-6 qb's taken in the first.   And those teams drafting OT in the first aren't going to be going back to the well in round two for another.     There is going to be some good prospects in the 2nd.   I think because its a huge need for us we worry that all teams see these guys the same way.  

A lot of talent will fall with so many QBs being taken in the first. This is why I think we can get a sweet deal to trade back too.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

2 hours ago, Lamardirts said:

Forgetting Jenkins and Little.  I have a hard time seeing 14-15 OT get taken in the first two.  This draft is deep at DE and WR and we are going to see 5-6 qb's taken in the first.   And those teams drafting OT in the first aren't going to be going back to the well in round two for another.     There is going to be some good prospects in the 2nd.   I think because its a huge need for us we worry that all teams see these guys the same way.  

Agreed but I still think waiting until rd 3 to go OT is playing with fire.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

2 hours ago, Lamardirts said:

If we had to use 63 and 95 to get the OT/DE we want in the 2nd I would be all for it.   Solidifying those two positions should be our #1 priority.    Like you said though might only take that 4th.   Walker Little, Spencer Brown, and Stone Forsythe are three guys I would love at the middle to end of the 2nd.   Then in your scenario go get a OC in the 3rd.   

We have 2 fourths and comp picks are tradeable. Draft capital.

[Palangi 788]

With this year my trade would look like...

2. Walker Little OT Stanford 6'7" 310- he was an 1st round potential until injury and opt out year.  He is 2 years removed from the injury.  He is a day 1 starter at LT

2. Payton Turner DE Houston 6'5" 270- a perfect fit for Spags defense.  Has an very high ceiling.  

3. Simi Fehoko WR Stanford 6'4" 220- ran a 4.37 at proday.  Needs some work on route tree but has great hands.  Can threaten deep.  And could help as a red zone guy. 

4. Benjamin St Juste S Minnesota 6'3 205- played corner in college.  But is a physical tackler and could be a really good safety.  A Sorenson replacement.  

4. Derrick Barnes LB Purdue 6'1 245- physical LB with very good athletic profile.  A Hitchens replacement after this year.  

4. Nick Eubanks TE Michigan 6'5 250- ran a 4.6 at pro day. Is physical blocker.  Potential in pass game as Michigan pass game want very good. 

5. Darrick Forrest S Cincinnati 6' 205- I like this kid but more as a 5th rounder. Can grow and develop behind Mathieu.  

5. Anthony Hines LB Texas A&M 6'3" 230- athletic kid.  Ran a 4.65 at pro day.  Day out 2020. Will be a SLB. Can cover TEs. 

6. Tristan Hoge OL BYU 6'5" 310- played center,  guard,  and tackle.  Transferred from Notre Dame.  Was a big recruit that played center in high school.  Comes in as a center for us. 

6. Isaiah Dunn CB Oregon state 6' 190- ran a 4.38 at pro day.  Has good length.  

[Lamardirts 2,114]

7 hours ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

Agreed but I still think waiting until rd 3 to go OT is playing with fire.

Absolutely agree.  The only reason I was thinking we pass on OT in the first is if a guy like Oweh or Phillips is sitting there at 31.  Would be hard for me to pass up a higher floor/ceiling guy than draft a 50/50 guy to play LT.  Has to be addressed in the first or second unless Veach has something up his sleeve.   May a 2022 1st and this year's 3rd for Orlando Brown or something.