USA Today predicts

[oldtimer 8,686]

USA TODAY’s Nate Davis has released his annual NFL record projections, this time for the 2021 season.

Davis has the Kansas City Chiefs going 12-5 on the season, which is one more loss than he projected for their 2020 record. That’s because of the newly expanded 17-game NFL season. According to Davis’ projection, the Chiefs will make division history, winning the AFC West for the sixth consecutive season. They’ll also earn the fourth seed in the AFC en route to the playoffs.

Here’s what Davis had to say about his vision for Kansas City in 2021:

“(4) Kansas City Chiefs (12-5): Mahomes mused about going 20-0 last month – and later backed away from it – yet there are plenty of reasons to expect some measure of regression from a team that’s won five consecutive division crowns, reached three straight AFC championship games and appeared in the last two Super Bowls. Last year’s conference champs must navigate an unforgiving schedule, which includes a tough trio of AFC West foes, even as Andy Reid tries to dial in a revamped offensive line and seeks more production from his No. 2 wideout, likely Mecole Hardman. DE Frank Clark’s legal troubles could present another obstacle. However that schedule, which is heavily frontloaded, presents only two 2020 playoff teams after October.”

So Davis’ concerns are the inevitable regression, a new offensive line, production from a No. 2 wide receiver and Frank Clark’s recent arrests. All are seemingly valid concerns, but hardly things that could sink a team quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes. If the team can weather a tough early schedule, things should open up for them in the second half of the year.

The Los Angeles Chargers will finish second in the division per Davis with an 11-6 record, with the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders both tying for the worst record in the division at 8-9. The Chiefs will make the postseason, but they’ll fall shy of making it to Super Bowl this time around. They’ll defeat the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round and fall to the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Championship Game

[Handswarmer 645]

Training Camp can't start soon enough. These prediction columns don't take into account injury or Covid. Stuff can happen in the first week , or even TC and preseason, to derail these predictions

[dhitter 1,424]

Meh....apparently Davis short changed the Chiefs last year too. Mahomes has yet to lose in September. But every year they get dinged because of that brutal start. ...Jackson , Mayfield, Allen and Herbert have yet to beat Mahomes. Sure eventually it will likely happen but until it does STFU!

[robgar 1,046]

I actually think hes wrong on the raiders.. 

as well.. 

chiefs

raiders

chargers

whatever they call that thing in denver.

[sith13 1,746]

To be honest I think he showed a lot of respect for AFC West. I wouldn't be surprised if Chargers actually do better than the Raiders but I don't see the Chiefs winning the division by just a single game as long as Mahomes is healthy. 

Last year Chiefs regressed all over as guys like Ogbah and Ragland haven't been replaced and no real contributor has been added. Even in that scenario the outcome was the SB, with more of a real offseason and major fixes to the worst position group in OL I think it's reasonable to be optimistic about the Chiefs right now. 

[AFCWEST 1,238]

16 minutes ago, sith13 said:

To be honest I think he showed a lot of respect for AFC West. I wouldn't be surprised if Chargers actually do better than the Raiders but I don't see the Chiefs winning the division by just a single game as long as Mahomes is healthy. 

Last year Chiefs regressed all over as guys like Ogbah and Ragland haven't been replaced and no real contributor has been added. Even in that scenario the outcome was the SB, with more of a real offseason and major fixes to the worst position group in OL I think it's reasonable to be optimistic about the Chiefs right now. 

I see KC 4-2 in the division and 12-5 as well. Should be a dog fight to win the division. I think the other teams have improved more than KC. Chiefs are now very top heavy in salaries and that will be a huge challenge going forward.

[sith13 1,746]

1 hour ago, AFCWEST said:

I see KC 4-2 in the division and 12-5 as well. Should be a dog fight to win the division. I think the other teams have improved more than KC. Chiefs are now very top heavy in salaries and that will be a huge challenge going forward.

With the way schedule is lined up I'm expecting 5 wins in the division. If Broncos had a decent team I would write the 17th week off as a loss but other than that the rest seems to be well placed for wins. 

[jetlord 10,209]

2 hours ago, AFCWEST said:

I see KC 4-2 in the division and 12-5 as well. Should be a dog fight to win the division. I think the other teams have improved more than KC. Chiefs are now very top heavy in salaries and that will be a huge challenge going forward.

The thing that might save the top heavy Chiefs is the salary cap going up dramatically while the Mahomes contract start biting more.  LJ8, Allen, Mayfield, etc. will want big contracts and if the cap goes up, Mahoes may look like a bargain over the long term.  The key is always to draft well and get production from rookie contracts.  .  

[azchief21 5,278]

1 hour ago, jetlord said:

The key is always to draft well and get production from rookie contracts.  .  

This^^^

[azchief21 5,278]

1 hour ago, jetlord said:

Mahoes may look like a bargain

Due to inflation, Mahoes are expensive. I do offer CC discounts. 

[AFCWEST 1,238]

2 hours ago, jetlord said:

The thing that might save the top heavy Chiefs is the salary cap going up dramatically while the Mahomes contract start biting more.  LJ8, Allen, Mayfield, etc. will want big contracts and if the cap goes up, Mahoes may look like a bargain over the long term.  The key is always to draft well and get production from rookie contracts.  .  

Yes. But: The cap goes up for everyone. Inflation is automatic. KC is still very top heavy when 5 or 6  guys get over 50% of the cap. Its not Mahommes. QBs will get their money. Its paying too many guys top tier money. Thats why I would let HB move on.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

This idea that the Chiefs have taken a step back in talent or due for a stumble is an interesting take.   We made it to the SB with a make shift Oline all year and needed our starting LT to go out in the game before it to get beat in the SB and even then had guys stepped up in the SB it would have been much closer.    Its not a huge leap to think Gay, Sneed, Wharton, Danna, and CEH will all take a step forward with a full offseason of work out.   Jarran Reed is a huge signing for our defensive front.  Bolton is an upgrade over Niemann.   Thornhill is a year removed from his injury and started looking like the old Thornhill late last season.  Taco Charlton is back and will provide a boost to the backup dline.   The Oline will be considerably better than last years Oline and will be able to enforce their will.   We added new toys on offense to replace oft injured Watkins.    Our biggest losses were Watkins and Breeland.  Watkins was injured a lot and our production barely waivered.  Breeland was a savy veteran but there is reason to believe Hughes can replace his play along with Deandre Baker.     

12-5 is the floor imo depending on the Oline that could easily be 14-3 or 15-2.   If that Oline can be what many expect then our O is going to do some serious damage that teams will no longer be able to game plan around our running game or we will abuse them with light boxes.   

 

[xen 1,010,220]

3 hours ago, azchief21 said:

Due to inflation, Mahoes are expensive.

That's why I always bargain shop downtown

[mex 65,581]

7 hours ago, AFCWEST said:

I see KC 4-2 in the division and 12-5 as well. Should be a dog fight to win the division. I think the other teams have improved more than KC. Chiefs are now very top heavy in salaries and that will be a huge challenge going forward.

Last three years, every GM in the AFCW has groomed their team to beat the Chiefs.

Now is when we'll see Andy's experience come into play... hopefully

[oldtimer 8,686]

2 hours ago, xen said:

That's why I always bargain shop downtown

better deals down on Front Street.. or so I have heard

[reesebobby 5,662]

Hard to imagine that 12-5 equals a 4 seed, 

[West 6,713]

Hard to imagine the rest of the AFC West is very competitive and the Chiefs win the division  and are a 4 seed..

I guess the Chiefs 12 wins, Chargers 11 wins and the Fader & Dorks 8 wins each all come against the AFC Bottom Dwellers and the NFC?

It's all about Health.....that's it.

w

[West 6,713]

Looking at the Schedules of the Bills and the Browns...

1. KC must win these two games

2. Bills (AFC East) have the easiest Schedule and if KC loses to them, they could be the #1 seed.

3. Brownies have the AFC West and the the tougher schedule....They will have 4 loses.

 

w

[SEMO 6,811]

Our D scares me.  It is a good thing that we beefed up the oline because we are going to have to score 30+ every week to win.  Pass rush is going to be weak once again.

[Handswarmer 645]

36 minutes ago, SEMO said:

Our D scares me.  It is a good thing that we beefed up the oline because we are going to have to score 30+ every week to win.  Pass rush is going to be weak once again.

I can agree there....coupled with a weak secondary, it looks to be a shootout every week.

[kkuenn 3,597]

23 hours ago, Handswarmer said:

I can agree there....coupled with a weak secondary, it looks to be a shootout every week.

I don't know how you call it Weak? Explain from what we had last year to now and any stats. We gained a couple young ones, former 1st rounder, have HB and Thornhill still plus we only lost Breeland from it all. 

We did beef up on the d line with Reed. We have Gay with a TC and year under his belt and drafted Bolton in another LB. Seems to me we plus up where needed and dare I say, possibly got better.

[Handswarmer 645]

1 hour ago, kkuenn said:

I don't know how you call it Weak? Explain from what we had last year to now and any stats. We gained a couple young ones, former 1st rounder, have HB and Thornhill still plus we only lost Breeland from it all. 

We did beef up on the d line with Reed. We have Gay with a TC and year under his belt and drafted Bolton in another LB. Seems to me we plus up where needed and dare I say, possibly got better.

PFF dropped the Chiefs from 10 at the end of 2020 to 18 going into the 2021 season.

Either the other 7 teams drastically improved or the loss of Breeland (ranked 14th best CB last year) and HB being a year older is the affecting the unit.

Also, speculation is that HB was not offered an extension because Thornhill is his replacement

[kkuenn 3,597]

Have them dropping, lol, before it is even played. Not a very good point. HB speculation has nothing to do with this season of play. If anything him being in his last year, will make him play lights out. Again, secondary is not weak. Even if it drops to middle pack that is average, not weak.

[xen 1,010,220]

2 hours ago, Handswarmer said:

PFF dropped the Chiefs from 10 at the end of 2020 to 18 going into the 2021 season.

Either the other 7 teams drastically improved or the loss of Breeland (ranked 14th best CB last year) and HB being a year older is the affecting the unit.

Also, speculation is that HB was not offered an extension because Thornhill is his replacement

Thornhill is strictly a FS I think.  And who says they didn't offer HB an extension?  

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

I agree with AFCWest.  The cap will always be the same for everyone.

As far as players go, we merely need a few playmakers on both sides of the ball, very good D and O lines, decent depth at all of those positions, and Mahomes. To consistently be in playoff contention with the remaining cast of affordable players, backups, and rookies, we need top coaches to make the youngest players very good quickly, a top GM, and reasonable luck with injuries in a given year. 

Any year that Mahomes loses more than three games to injury or gets hampered by them for much of a season, we are an also-ran.  Any year that Mahomes is completely healthy, we will be able to win through the playoffs to the Super Bowl...and win a few of those. Without Mahomes we are just one of many good teams. With him, we will win at least two more super bowls in the next decade.  But the salary cap is the same for all teams.