KC Denver game

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

5 hours ago, AFCWEST said:

I think every fan base would say but for this or that we could have more wins. Kc could also have a couple more loses but for. Chiefs have an amazing win percentage over the past few years. Sometimes the ball bounces the other way. No question that this offense turning it over is the issue keeping it from dominating.

That's right. Reminds me of the old expression, "If the dog hadn't stopped to piss, he'd have caught the rabbit."

[dhitter 1,424]

On 12/1/2021 at 12:18 PM, Adamixoye said:

That wasn't my point at all, which is why I didn't say those words.

My point was that we took the ball out of Patrick's hands in the Ravens game and it almost definitely cost us that game (I think we should have passed anyway, because I would have liked Butker to be closer)

You've touched on a lot of things in this thread. This one is a point that gets way overlooked. Andy decided he was setting up for the field goal before the play was even started. Why? Why not try to at least get it as close as you can before you need to kick. Butker is solid but percentages usually go down the further out you go. The Ravens were on their heels too. Andy deserves some blame on that loss as well 

[Adamixoye 604]

11 minutes ago, dhitter said:

You've touched on a lot of things in this thread. This one is a point that gets way overlooked. Andy decided he was setting up for the field goal before the play was even started. Why? Why not try to at least get it as close as you can before you need to kick. Butker is solid but percentages usually go down the further out you go. The Ravens were on their heels too. Andy deserves some blame on that loss as well 

Yep, overall I think it speaks to being conservative vs. not.  Sometimes being conservative is the biggest risk of all.

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

3 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

Yep, overall I think it speaks to being conservative vs. not.  Sometimes being conservative is the biggest risk of all.

As long as we win!

Then, all decisions are golden.

[qnet 1,150]

7 hours ago, dhitter said:

You've touched on a lot of things in this thread. This one is a point that gets way overlooked. Andy decided he was setting up for the field goal before the play was even started. Why? Why not try to at least get it as close as you can before you need to kick. Butker is solid but percentages usually go down the further out you go. The Ravens were on their heels too. Andy deserves some blame on that loss as well 

 

7 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

Yep, overall I think it speaks to being conservative vs. not.  Sometimes being conservative is the biggest risk of all.

Not sure how this thread turned to this discussion, but I went back and painfully read the play-by-play. Mahomes was carving the Ravens up on that last drive. He had the Chiefs - who started at the 25 - to the Ravens 32 in a couple of minutes. 

It's hard to say. What if at 2nd and 3 Mahomes kept passing, the ball gets tipped and intercepted, game still over. Then I guarantee some would have asked why they kept passing with only 3 yards to gain. 

 

[jetlord 10,209]

9 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

Yep, overall I think it speaks to being conservative vs. not.  Sometimes being conservative is the biggest risk of all.

Running the ball wasn't a mistake.  Even little or no gain with the minimal time remaining should have put the game away.  Who would have though CEH would pick that time to commit his first fumble?  Only in hindsight could one say it would have been better to air it out.  

[dhitter 1,424]

9 hours ago, qnet said:

 

Not sure how this thread turned to this discussion, but I went back and painfully read the play-by-play. Mahomes was carving the Ravens up on that last drive. He had the Chiefs - who started at the 25 - to the Ravens 32 in a couple of minutes. 

It's hard to say. What if at 2nd and 3 Mahomes kept passing, the ball gets tipped and intercepted, game still over. Then I guarantee some would have asked why they kept passing with only 3 yards to gain. 

 

Second guessing is one of a fan's "superpowers".😆

[Adamixoye 604]

11 hours ago, qnet said:

 

Not sure how this thread turned to this discussion, but I went back and painfully read the play-by-play. Mahomes was carving the Ravens up on that last drive. He had the Chiefs - who started at the 25 - to the Ravens 32 in a couple of minutes. 

It's hard to say. What if at 2nd and 3 Mahomes kept passing, the ball gets tipped and intercepted, game still over. Then I guarantee some would have asked why they kept passing with only 3 yards to gain. 

 

Well the conservation turned into a passing vs. running debate, and since I was told broad aggregate stats weren't convincing, I was trying to point to a specific, concrete anecdote where I think running burned us.

Now, in a sense I don't totally believe what I'm saying because I think you should judge on process rather than results.  Do what SHOULD work more of the time and in the long run it will.  Whether or not an individual decision works out doesn't mean it was a good or bad idea.  Do the right process and in the long run you'll have superior results.  But, as I say below, it was both a bad result and arguably a bad process.

8 hours ago, jetlord said:

Running the ball wasn't a mistake.  Even little or no gain with the minimal time remaining should have put the game away.  Who would have though CEH would pick that time to commit his first fumble?  Only in hindsight could one say it would have been better to air it out.  

We were at the 32 and passing much better than running.  According to the play-by-play CEH was actually stuffed for -2 yards prior to the fumble, unlike the 3 straight very successful passing plays just prior to it.  I don't think it's hindsight at all.  I groaned at the choice to run as I saw CEH get stuff BEFORE the ball came out.

So to go to what I said above, I think it was not only a bad result, but it was bad process.  "But Mahomes could have thrown an interception!"  Well, I suppose he could have.  Remember that earlier in that game he had thrown just his first September interception ever --- take that whichever what supports your narrative, I suppose, either way (to assume he was less likely to throw one or more likely) is probably some form of the Gambler's Fallacy.  But the larger context is that we scored 35 points and he was carving them up.  If you really want the ball in CEH's hands instead of Patrick's, then I feel like we much be watching very different games and I have no idea what to tell you.

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

In that situation, only about 10 more yards, probably less, would have been no problem for Butker. Plus, it would have taken more time off and left no chance for a comeback after a Butker field goal. Passing in that situation was completely unnecessary in relation to risk.  CEH has one of the lowest fumble rates historically in college and since he has been in the pros.  The team did exactly what they should have done.  There are no guarantees that the unexpected won't happen at any time, but you have to play the odds.  Butker gave us better odds to do it the way we did. Had CEH not had one of his rare fumbles, this conversation would never be occuring. Only armchair head coaches with oversized egos would argue otherwise.

[reesebobby 5,661]

12 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

In that situation, only about 10 more yards, probably less, would have been no problem for Butker. Plus, it would have taken more time off and left no chance for a comeback after a Butker field goal. Passing in that situation was completely unnecessary in relation to risk.  CEH has one of the lowest fumble rates historically in college and since he has been in the pros.  The team did exactly what they should have done.  There are no guarantees that the unexpected won't happen at any time, but you have to play the odds.  Butker gave us better odds to do it the way we did. Had CEH not had one of his rare fumbles, this conversation would never be occuring. Only armchair head coaches with oversized egos would argue otherwise.

I think there is more to the debate on run vs pass than the fumble.  I don't pretend to know all of the huge amounts of math that go into it, but statistically they tell you to pass in most situations.  Things that we are not thinking about, such as defensive penalties are much more common on pass plays and offensive penalties are much more common on running plays.  I'm not against running the ball 3 times there and kicking the field goal, but that doesn't mean it is statistically the thing to do.  Probably the biggest benefit to run vs pass in that situation is making sure the clock is running.  We had a pretty high win probability either way and it was just some bad luck.  A game of inches as they say.  

[artsy 1,137]

32 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

I think there is more to the debate on run vs pass than the fumble.  I don't pretend to know all of the huge amounts of math that go into it, but statistically they tell you to pass in most situations.  Things that we are not thinking about, such as defensive penalties are much more common on pass plays and offensive penalties are much more common on running plays.  I'm not against running the ball 3 times there and kicking the field goal, but that doesn't mean it is statistically the thing to do.  Probably the biggest benefit to run vs pass in that situation is making sure the clock is running.  We had a pretty high win probability either way and it was just some bad luck.  A game of inches as they say.  

Well, I'm still on the "run the ball" as much as you can train...

I can't lie, lately....every time pat drops back to pass, my butt cheeks squinch-up till the pass is caught and the WR is tackled to the ground without fumbling. 

[Adamixoye 604]

55 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

In that situation, only about 10 more yards, probably less, would have been no problem for Butker. Plus, it would have taken more time off and left no chance for a comeback after a Butker field goal. Passing in that situation was completely unnecessary in relation to risk.  CEH has one of the lowest fumble rates historically in college and since he has been in the pros.  The team did exactly what they should have done.  There are no guarantees that the unexpected won't happen at any time, but you have to play the odds.  Butker gave us better odds to do it the way we did. Had CEH not had one of his rare fumbles, this conversation would never be occuring. Only armchair head coaches with oversized egos would argue otherwise.

We were at the 32 - you trust Butker that much at 49-50 yards?  That's a FG he can definitely make but it's not automatic.  Another 5-10 yards would have been fantastic.  Instead, even if CEH had held on, he gave up two yards (though we still had third down).

You keep mentioning CEH's lack of fumbles in college, but he then fumbled the very next week against LAC.  So what's his true fumble rate?  My argument isn't even that it was risky to give the ball to CEH, just that there was very little upside and it burned us.

[Adamixoye 604]

39 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

I think there is more to the debate on run vs pass than the fumble.  I don't pretend to know all of the huge amounts of math that go into it, but statistically they tell you to pass in most situations.  Things that we are not thinking about, such as defensive penalties are much more common on pass plays and offensive penalties are much more common on running plays.  I'm not against running the ball 3 times there and kicking the field goal, but that doesn't mean it is statistically the thing to do.  Probably the biggest benefit to run vs pass in that situation is making sure the clock is running.  We had a pretty high win probability either way and it was just some bad luck.  A game of inches as they say.  

Any moderately successful pass in that situation gives us the first down and makes the clock irrelevant.  CEH fumbled on 2nd and 3, so we had two chances.  Why not run that little out to Hill that we used on 4th downs last year?  Much more successful than our short running game has been for years.

[Adamixoye 604]

Also pretty hilarious that I'm being told I'm arrogant armchair head coach with an oversized ego because of my opinion on this one play when others are arguing that we should change our whole offensive scheme, just in the other direction.

[reesebobby 5,661]

16 minutes ago, Adamixoye said:

Any moderately successful pass in that situation gives us the first down and makes the clock irrelevant.  CEH fumbled on 2nd and 3, so we had two chances.  Why not run that little out to Hill that we used on 4th downs last year?  Much more successful than our short running game has been for years.

A moderately successful run also gives us the first down.  I'm not lobbying for running it, I'm just saying that keeping the clock running is more likely with a run than with a pass.  And the clock was still in play.  

[oldtimer 8,686]

2 hours ago, artsy said:

Well, I'm still on the "run the ball" as much as you can train...

I can't lie, lately....every time pat drops back to pass, my butt cheeks squinch-up till the pass is caught and the WR is tackled to the ground without fumbling. 

x's 2 

[BroncoStud 3,253]

You guys need to settle down over here...

Denver is going to give KC the Dallas treatment.  Shrooms will meet foreheads.  /gg

[AFCWEST 1,238]

The Kansas City Chiefs will be without offensive tackle Lucas Niang and cornerback Rashad Fenton when they suit up to face the Denver Broncos in Week 13 at Arrowhead Stadium. Both players missed practice this week and have already been declared out, according to head coach Andy Reid who spoke with reporters on Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

[jetlord 10,209]

3 minutes ago, AFCWEST said:

The Kansas City Chiefs will be without offensive tackle Lucas Niang and cornerback Rashad Fenton when they suit up to face the Denver Broncos in Week 13 at Arrowhead Stadium. Both players missed practice this week and have already been declared out, according to head coach Andy Reid who spoke with reporters on Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

Both are important to the Chiefs success, but their injury list is better than most team's at this point.  A healthy Jones and Clark and two weeks of healing for Hill and Kelce is a plus.  I hate to see Chubb on Wylie or any speed rusher on Brown, but the Chiefs are is as good of shape as can be expected compared to some other teams.  

[reesebobby 5,661]

57 minutes ago, BroncoStud said:

You guys need to settle down over here...

Denver is going to give KC the Dallas treatment.  Shrooms will meet foreheads.  /gg

[oldtimer 8,686]

1 hour ago, BroncoStud said:

You guys need to settle down over here...

Denver is going to give KC the Dallas treatment.  Shrooms will meet foreheads.  /gg

I thought you gave up on football esp the donks?

[reesebobby 5,661]

8 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I thought you gave up on football esp the donks?

You can give up on football and still be a Broncos fan.  

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

4 hours ago, Adamixoye said:

We were at the 32 - you trust Butker that much at 49-50 yards?  That's a FG he can definitely make but it's not automatic.  Another 5-10 yards would have been fantastic.  Instead, even if CEH had held on, he gave up two yards (though we still had third down).

You keep mentioning CEH's lack of fumbles in college, but he then fumbled the very next week against LAC.  So what's his true fumble rate?  My argument isn't even that it was risky to give the ball to CEH, just that there was very little upside and it burned us.

That's exactly right.  You somehow misinterpreted my post.  I said we needed to get 5-10 more yards for it to be a safe kick for Butker.  Why take the risk passing when our running game should be able to get that easily AND use up more time doing it?  In fact, Helaire already HAD those yards, if you re-call, when he fumbled.  Had he not fumbled, a Butker kick from that spot would have been nearly automatic.

[Adamixoye 604]

10 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

That's exactly right.  You somehow misinterpreted my post.  I said we needed to get 5-10 more yards for it to be a safe kick for Butker.  Why take the risk passing when our running game should be able to get that easily AND use up more time doing it?  In fact, Helaire already HAD those yards, if you re-call, when he fumbled.  Had he not fumbled, a Butker kick from that spot would have been nearly automatic.

Well we're just disagreeing on the probabilities now.  I don't think passing is particularly risky if done correctly.  Bobby has a small point about an incompletion stopping the clock, but you have two chances to run something high probability to get three yards AND keep the clock running.  On the other hand, in 2nd and short Baltimore was looking for the run and stuffed it as one might have easily guessed.

You also have your facts wrong.  Clyde fumbled two yards behind the line of scrimmage.  I have no idea what you're talking about when you say he had those yards.

 

[Adamixoye 604]

Video won't embed but you can follow the link