Who's next at Wide Receiver?

[mex 65,581]

If they are taking a serious look at Watson, that tells me they're looking at beefing up the defense with existing draft picks.

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

Half the visits teams make with players prior to the draft are smokescreens to manipulate other teams into making certain moves up or down. Its a huge chess game. The smartest thing to do is ignore all these bullshit visits.

[sith13 1,746]

Watson has way too many drops to be an early pick IMO. Probably a 2nd day pick likely in 3rd. If they are looking at early round WRs I don't think we have a better fit than Burks with that size and speed combo. 

[SEMO 6,811]

8 hours ago, xen said:

@SEMO you no like Watson?

Not at 29 or 30.  He is definitely a freak athlete.  But, can he play ball in the NFL?  

If they want to use 64 or one of the 3s on him and try to develop him, I'm all for it.

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

8 hours ago, sith13 said:

Watson has way too many drops to be an early pick IMO. Probably a 2nd day pick likely in 3rd. If they are looking at early round WRs I don't think we have a better fit than Burks with that size and speed combo. 

I read somewhere that he has very good hands.  I don't recall the reference, but are you sure that he has a problem with drops?

[xen 1,010,220]

1 hour ago, Fmbl2187 said:

I read somewhere that he has very good hands.  I don't recall the reference, but are you sure that he has a problem with drops?

5 drops on 43 receptions.  They didn't pass much at his school.  That's not great.  That said it was a small sample size and he looked great at senior bowl and combine.   He also is a beast once he gets the ball with some unreal burst, acceleration and COD.

Here's some other drop rates for comparison

1. Jahan Dotson: 2.2% (93rd percentile) – 2 drops, 91 receptions
2. 2020 George Pickens: 5.3% (66th*) – 2 drops, 36 receptions
3. Treylon Burks: 5.7% (62nd) – 4 drops, 65 receptions
4. Jameson Williams: 7.1% (53rd) – 6 drops, 78 receptions
5. Chris Olave: 7.1% (53rd) – 5 drops, 65 receptions
6. Garrett Wilson: 7.9% (45th) – 6 drops, 70 receptions
7. Drake London: 8.3% (41st) – 8 drops, 88 receptions
8. Christian Watson: 10.4% (25th*) – 5 drops, 43 receptions

[xen 1,010,220]

 

[jetlord 10,209]

A report is out that the Chiefs are considering a conditional trade of a first, second, and third to get Williams.  Essentially, it would be trading the draft capital gained from trading Hill to get Williams.  Seven years younger, good for five years $80 million cheaper, but still not Hill.  If there's any truth to that rumor, it makes sense that the Chiefs would want an interview and strict physical.  Then if Williams goes in the top ten, all bets are off.

[azchief21 5,278]

Meanwhile all we have is Frank "In the Tank" Clark as a pass rusher. 

[jetlord 10,209]

6 minutes ago, azchief21 said:

Meanwhile all we have is Frank "In the Tank" Clark as a pass rusher. 

Two weeks from now, you'll be full of optimism again.  In Veach we trust. 

[azchief21 5,278]

3 minutes ago, jetlord said:

Two weeks from now, you'll be full of optimism again.  In Veach we trust. 

OK jet, I'll trust you on this. If not, you'll owe me a BBQ dinner next spring. 😉

[jetlord 10,209]

1 minute ago, azchief21 said:

OK jet, I'll trust you on this. If not, you'll owe me a BBQ dinner next spring. 😉

We can do the dinner whether you like the draft or not.  I won't be happy with all the moves the Chiefs make, but Veach has a plan in mind and lots of capital to work it. 

[mex 65,581]

3 hours ago, jetlord said:

A report is out that the Chiefs are considering a conditional trade of a first, second, and third to get Williams.  Essentially, it would be trading the draft capital gained from trading Hill to get Williams.  Seven years younger, good for five years $80 million cheaper, but still not Hill.  If there's any truth to that rumor, it makes sense that the Chiefs would want an interview and strict physical.  Then if Williams goes in the top ten, all bets are off.

Damn that's a lot. Big gamble if they're hoping he'll replace Hill. 

[jetlord 10,209]

13 minutes ago, mex said:

Damn that's a lot. Big gamble if they're hoping he'll replace Hill. 

No one will replace Hill, but the offense can be just as effective if the secondary receivers that they signed pan out.  I think the trade scenario was assuming that Williams would go at about 11 or 12.  

[mex 65,581]

41 minutes ago, jetlord said:

No one will replace Hill, but the offense can be just as effective if the secondary receivers that they signed pan out.  I think the trade scenario was assuming that Williams would go at about 11 or 12.  

I think a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is too much for a WR but that's just me. In Veach we trust.

[jetlord 10,209]

58 minutes ago, mex said:

I think a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is too much for a WR but that's just me. In Veach we trust.

Well Miami gave that much plus a couple of picks next year plus $gazilion for a WR what will be 31 after only three years.  Hill is special, at least with Mahomes, but I thought the Fish overpaid. 

[mex 65,581]

18 minutes ago, jetlord said:

Well Miami gave that much plus a couple of picks next year plus $gazilion for a WR what will be 31 after only three years.  Hill is special, at least with Mahomes, but I thought the Fish overpaid. 

I thought they did too.

That doesn't justify us overpaying for a potential replacement, either. Just seems like a lot of draft capital being spent to get a 1st rd WR.. if the rumor is true. Defense is more important at this stage... IMO

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

1 hour ago, mex said:

I think a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is too much for a WR but that's just me. In Veach we trust.

I agree. Hill can't be "replaced." That kind of draft capital should only be traded to move up if there is a phenomenal player at a position of need that simply cannot be had without moving up that far. Otherwise, why even make that trade with the Dolphins.? I trust Veach to move up only to get a guy like that only if it is worth that much. I think a good rusher would have more impact to justify so much capital. I also agree with Jet that Mahomes/Reid can make a deeper WR group work just as well using a slighly different scheme as the one that was so totally dependent on one guy who could disappear at any moment with an injury.  We were plain lucky that didn't happen all those years with Hill, but I was constantly biting my nails before every game during the stretch that it might happen.  We should always remember that receivers who turn out to be great can be found in the third and fourth rounds. This draft is particularly deep in good receivers. Unless we can get a "can't miss" edge, all that draft capital should be kept for deepening the overall team, not on one great WR with an ACL injury. I think Veach has a plan.  If he doesn't, I would be totally shocked. This is a game of attrition. It is also won or lost in the trenches, and the trenches are where a great GM should be scheming.

[xen 1,010,220]

If only I could get Fumbl's thoughts on it in the form of a giant wall of text...

[xen 1,010,220]

23 minutes ago, Fmbl2187 said:

I agree. Hill can't be "replaced." That kind of draft capital should only be traded to move up if there is a phenomenal player at a position of need that simply cannot be had without moving up that far. Otherwise, why even make that trade with the Dolphins.? I trust Veach to move up only to get a guy like that only if it is worth that much. I think a good rusher would have more impact to justify so much capital. I also agree with Jet that Mahomes/Reid can make a deeper WR group work just as well using a slighly different scheme as the one that was so totally dependent on one guy who could disappear at any moment with an injury.  We were plain lucky that didn't happen all those years with Hill, but I was constantly biting my nails before every game during the stretch that it might happen.  We should always remember that receivers who turn out to be great can be found in the third and fourth rounds. This draft is particularly deep in good receivers. Unless we can get a "can't miss" edge, all that draft capital should be kept for deepening the overall team, not on one great WR with an ACL injury. I think Veach has a plan.  If he doesn't, I would be totally shocked. This is a game of attrition. It is also won or lost in the trenches, and the trenches are where a great GM should be scheming.

Oh hey!

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

23 minutes ago, xen said:

Oh hey!

Are you talking about my wordiness or some weird computer code thing?

[xen 1,010,220]

1 hour ago, Fmbl2187 said:

Are you talking about my wordiness or some weird computer code thing?

It can be 2 things

[jetlord 10,209]

4 hours ago, Fmbl2187 said:

I agree. Hill can't be "replaced." That kind of draft capital should only be traded to move up if there is a phenomenal player at a position of need that simply cannot be had without moving up that far. Otherwise, why even make that trade with the Dolphins.? I trust Veach to move up only to get a guy like that only if it is worth that much. I think a good rusher would have more impact to justify so much capital. I also agree with Jet that Mahomes/Reid can make a deeper WR group work just as well using a slighly different scheme as the one that was so totally dependent on one guy who could disappear at any moment with an injury.  We were plain lucky that didn't happen all those years with Hill, but I was constantly biting my nails before every game during the stretch that it might happen.  We should always remember that receivers who turn out to be great can be found in the third and fourth rounds. This draft is particularly deep in good receivers. Unless we can get a "can't miss" edge, all that draft capital should be kept for deepening the overall team, not on one great WR with an ACL injury. I think Veach has a plan.  If he doesn't, I would be totally shocked. This is a game of attrition. It is also won or lost in the trenches, and the trenches are where a great GM should be scheming.

Well, WR is certainly a position of need.  The Chiefs have ONE signed for 2023 and beyond.  I've argued with Xen about the priority of WR and defense and still think the D is the first consideration.  But if Veach and Reid see Williams/Mahomes as the 21st century version of Rice/Montana, then giving up a second to move up makes sense.  We can assume that Veach won't use all eight picks in the first four rounds.  Giving up one or even two for his dream weapon can be defended.  As long as he can still nab a starting DB and EDGE, we could live with going after Williams.

[mex 65,581]

8 hours ago, jetlord said:

Well, WR is certainly a position of need.  The Chiefs have ONE signed for 2023 and beyond.  I've argued with Xen about the priority of WR and defense and still think the D is the first consideration.  But if Veach and Reid see Williams/Mahomes as the 21st century version of Rice/Montana, then giving up a second to move up makes sense.  We can assume that Veach won't use all eight picks in the first four rounds.  Giving up one or even two for his dream weapon can be defended.  As long as he can still nab a starting DB and EDGE, we could live with going after Williams.

I don't think anyone is saying WR isn't a position of need. 

We have several positions of dire need, and I think most would agree defense is equally if not more important.

If the rumor about a #1, 2 and 3 pick to bump up to #11 is true... it seems like a lot to give up. To me anyways. But I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn Express so what do I know  

 

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

10 hours ago, jetlord said:

Well, WR is certainly a position of need.  The Chiefs have ONE signed for 2023 and beyond.  I've argued with Xen about the priority of WR and defense and still think the D is the first consideration.  But if Veach and Reid see Williams/Mahomes as the 21st century version of Rice/Montana, then giving up a second to move up makes sense.  We can assume that Veach won't use all eight picks in the first four rounds.  Giving up one or even two for his dream weapon can be defended.  As long as he can still nab a starting DB and EDGE, we could live with going after Williams.

Yes, and the minds doing it in the front offices are way ahead of the limited views and simplistic preferences of any of the fans who are playing checkers every year. They understand that if they draft too many great players, they may be a dominant team but will not be able to afford half of their players each year and will find themselves in a rebuild constantly, whipsawing the allegiance of their fans.  Even though we are a passing team with Mahomes, he makes affordable receivers good and slightly more expensive receivers great.  So, go with the one or two great defensive players that any Super Bowl contender must have no matter who they have at QB. But the minds in the front offices also understand about attrition from injuries and age and that depth is as much the formula for success for any position groups as any single star is.