Who's next at Wide Receiver?

[azchief21 5,278]

All of this talk about Hill making Mahomes. What if Mahomes made Hill along with the threat of Kelce. Bold prediction: Hardman has a better year than Hill 

[TomahawkChop 255]

46 minutes ago, azchief21 said:

All of this talk about Hill making Mahomes. What if Mahomes made Hill along with the threat of Kelce. Bold prediction: Hardman has a better year than Hill 

That is bold.  I don't think this prediction will pan out, but I'm rooting for it.  Hardman is fast, but compared to Hill he's lacking in both situational football awareness and body/field/defender awareness, does not separate consistently and seems to be good for a drop at a critical juncture.  

What I do believe is that WR's 2-4 have improved with MVS and Ju-Ju with Mecole the 4th option.  The real question I'm curious about is which corp is more productive:  2021 with Hill #1, Robinson/Hardman #'s 2&3 - OR the 2022 combination of MVS, Ju-Ju and Hardman.  Only time will tell, but I'm hopeful and optimistic 2022's production will exceed 2021's at the WR position.  

[azchief21 5,278]

3 minutes ago, TomahawkChop said:

That is bold.  I don't think this prediction will pan out, but I'm rooting for it.  Hardman is fast, but compared to Hill he's lacking in both situational football awareness and body/field/defender awareness, does not separate consistently and seems to be good for a drop at a critical juncture.  

What I do believe is that WR's 2-4 have improved with MVS and Ju-Ju with Mecole the 4th option.  The real question I'm curious about is which corp is more productive:  2021 with Hill #1, Robinson/Hardman #'s 2&3 - OR the 2022 combination of MVS, Ju-Ju and Hardman.  Only time will tell, but I'm hopeful and optimistic 2022's production will exceed 2021's at the WR position.  

Hardman will never be Hill. Not close. But all those targets at Hill have to go somewhere and Hardman knows the offense. Don't get me wrong I don't think Hardman will have a better season than Hill has in the past. I'm saying Hardman will have a better year this year w/ Mahomes than Hill has w/ Tua. Hill was OK with Alex, he'll be OK with Tua. Plus Hill will have to share WR targets w/ Waddle. My point is a testament to Mahomes talent. 

[Obi Won Mahome 134]

Better question:  who’s next at DE or DT?  We have done literally nothing to add talent to these positions, whereas we added 2 decent WRs in FA.
 

I’m sick of hearing about WR while we do nothing with the DL to upgrade.

[mex 65,581]

2 hours ago, azchief21 said:

All of this talk about Hill making Mahomes. What if Mahomes made Hill along with the threat of Kelce. Bold prediction: Hardman has a better year than Hill 

Hill has unprecedented speed and awesome hands. He'll do well wherever he plays.

That said, Patrick makes receivers. I agree Hardman will have a better year... but he's no Hill. Not yet anyway.

[jetlord 10,209]

1 hour ago, Obi Won Mahome said:

Better question:  who’s next at DE or DT?  We have done literally nothing to add talent to these positions, whereas we added 2 decent WRs in FA.
 

I’m sick of hearing about WR while we do nothing with the DL to upgrade.

Well, this is a wide receiver thread.  But to answer your question, I think Ingram may be back and paired with a first day draftee along with Clark.  My guess would be Mafe, Cam Thomas, or Drake Jackson, all of whom could get quite a bit of playing time.  If Ingram isn't resigned, then the Chiefs will bring in another FA.  DT isn't as big of immediate need but a pass rushing tackle would be good to pair with Jones.

[Balto 723]

I'm starting to warm up on Christian Watson.  Seems like a Valdes-Scantling clone with better vert and quickness while still being just as fast downfield and size.  Side note....I love the 38.5 vert of Watson over Valdes-Scantlings 30.5!  Thats really the only major difference in the two

I guess my question would be if Veach/Reid now feel the tall fast type of guy need is taken care of with the signing of Valdes-Scantling OR do they feel this is the type of WR they want going forward and why not get the "upgraded" version of Valdes-Scantling in a guy like Christian Watson?

Would be nutz to give Mahomes two 6'4 guys with sub 4.3 speed on the outsides haha

[SEMO 6,811]

7 minutes ago, Balto said:

I'm starting to warm up on Christian Watson.  Seems like a Valdes-Scantling clone with better vert and quickness while still being just as fast downfield and size.  Side note....I love the 38.5 vert of Watson over Valdes-Scantlings 30.5!  Thats really the only major difference in the two

I guess my question would be if Veach/Reid now feel the tall fast type of guy need is taken care of with the signing of Valdes-Scantling OR do they feel this is the type of WR they want going forward and why not get the "upgraded" version of Valdes-Scantling in a guy like Christian Watson?

Would be nutz to give Mahomes two 6'4 guys with sub 4.3 speed on the outsides haha

I like his potential.  Just not in round 1.  

[jetlord 10,209]

45 minutes ago, Balto said:

I'm starting to warm up on Christian Watson.  Seems like a Valdes-Scantling clone with better vert and quickness while still being just as fast downfield and size.  Side note....I love the 38.5 vert of Watson over Valdes-Scantlings 30.5!  Thats really the only major difference in the two

I guess my question would be if Veach/Reid now feel the tall fast type of guy need is taken care of with the signing of Valdes-Scantling OR do they feel this is the type of WR they want going forward and why not get the "upgraded" version of Valdes-Scantling in a guy like Christian Watson?

Would be nutz to give Mahomes two 6'4 guys with sub 4.3 speed on the outsides haha

Pickens and Ross also fall into that category.  How would you rank them? 

[xen 1,010,220]

6 hours ago, Balto said:

I'm starting to warm up on Christian Watson.  Seems like a Valdes-Scantling clone with better vert and quickness while still being just as fast downfield and size.  Side note....I love the 38.5 vert of Watson over Valdes-Scantlings 30.5!  Thats really the only major difference in the two

I guess my question would be if Veach/Reid now feel the tall fast type of guy need is taken care of with the signing of Valdes-Scantling OR do they feel this is the type of WR they want going forward and why not get the "upgraded" version of Valdes-Scantling in a guy like Christian Watson?

Would be nutz to give Mahomes two 6'4 guys with sub 4.3 speed on the outsides haha

Interesting comp.  Little more quicks and more explosion with Watson but yeah pretty damn close.  It's like Valdes-Scantling leveled up.

[xen 1,010,220]

5 hours ago, jetlord said:

Pickens and Ross also fall into that category.  How would you rank them? 

Pickens is a different receiver to me.  He doesn't have the same quicks and he's more of a long strider, but he is much much more of a "fuck it he down there somewhere" type of "my ball" receiver.  There's a few of those in this draft.  London obviously, and Ross.  Treylon has some of that.  Alec Pierce has a bit of that.

Ross scares me with the back.  I think he drops to a late day 3 flyer.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

Watson's drops are a bit concerning on the limited usage.  He is super talented and enticing but our system is already hard to learn add that with a raw wr that has played at a lower level of competition and in a run heavy offense and I think the risk reward for us is too much.   I think it might take Watson the better part of two years to get all the way up to speed.   There are quite a few polished wr's with more than enough talent that we wont have to double reach for Watson.

[Balto 723]

21 hours ago, SEMO said:

I like his potential.  Just not in round 1.  

Heard a lot of that with DK Metcalf too

[xen 1,010,220]

2 hours ago, Balto said:

Heard a lot of that with DK Metcalf too

Yep.  I'd be thrilled with Watson.  Most of these receivers are gonna be limited usage year 1 anyway.

[SEMO 6,811]

16 minutes ago, xen said:

Yep.  I'd be thrilled with Watson.  Most of these receivers are gonna be limited usage year 1 anyway.

The athletic scores don’t mean everything.  There are plenty of gifted athletes that washed out of the NFL quickly.

Again, I like Watson.  Not in the first.

[SEMO 6,811]

2 hours ago, Balto said:

Heard a lot of that with DK Metcalf too

All 32 teams agreed that he was not worth any more than low 2nd round risk.  He panned out.  How many similar players don’t?   I would bet much more than do.

[xen 1,010,220]

1 hour ago, SEMO said:

The athletic scores don’t mean everything.  There are plenty of gifted athletes that washed out of the NFL quickly.

Again, I like Watson.  Not in the first.

Yes we know athletic scores don't mean everything.  I was just posting a comp.  As I said to someone else, obviously you don't draft just based on testing, that would be daft.

[xen 1,010,220]

1 hour ago, SEMO said:

All 32 teams agreed that he was not worth any more than low 2nd round risk.  He panned out.  How many similar players don’t?   I would bet much more than do.

Good chart posted today.  Here's your chances of getting an average player over their first 6 years in the league in the FA era.

Success Rate (12+ AV), 1989-2016

Virtual Round	Success Rate
1	77.8
2	56.1
3	33.5
4	27.0
5	21.7
6	11.5
7	10.7
8	7.1

[jetlord 10,209]

1 minute ago, xen said:

Good chart posted today.  Here's your chances of getting an average player over their first 6 years in the league in the FA era.

Success Rate (12+ AV), 1989-2016

Virtual Round	Success Rate
1	77.8
2	56.1
3	33.5
4	27.0
5	21.7
6	11.5
7	10.7
8	7.1m

Interesting.  It should be noted that when picking at #29 and #30 those are virtually second round picks so I'm assuming those picks have less than the listed 77.8 hit chance.   Still, from the chart and with eight picks in the first four rounds, the Chiefs can expect to find four successes.  That's a good draft.  

[kkuenn 3,599]

9 minutes ago, jetlord said:

Interesting.  It should be noted that when picking at #29 and #30 those are virtually second round picks so I'm assuming those picks have less than the listed 77.8 hit chance.   Still, from the chart and with eight picks in the first four rounds, the Chiefs can expect to find four successes.  That's a good draft.  

Nope, first round picks with 5th year options.

[arrowhead 1,070]

9 minutes ago, jetlord said:

Interesting.  It should be noted that when picking at #29 and #30 those are virtually second round picks so I'm assuming those picks have less than the listed 77.8 hit chance.   Still, from the chart and with eight picks in the first four rounds, the Chiefs can expect to find four successes.  That's a good draft.  

Saw a mock that had the Chiefs getting Wyatt at pick 50. Hill and Pickens in the 1st.

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

I'm guessing that the successful teams have higher percentage of hits in each round because

• Coaches are better
• Scouting  personnel are better
• The players are going to a strong team that allows them to develop and be coached  up rather than be thrown into the fire out of need.
• The GM's are better draft strategists.
• The head coaches are not asshole taskmasters devoted only to themselves

The chart is really an average of all teams including the bottom feeders. The top teams no doubt have a higher success rate, both by cause and effect.

[jetlord 10,209]

2 hours ago, arrowhead said:

Saw a mock that had the Chiefs getting Wyatt at pick 50. Hill and Pickens in the 1st.

Hill and Pickens in the first?  Possible.  Hill is at the top of my wish list.  Wyatt still on the board at #50?  Can't see that.  He looks to be the most effective pass rushing DT in the draft.  

[jetlord 10,209]

2 hours ago, kkuenn said:

Nope, first round picks with 5th year options.

That's important for QBs.  Not sure it's that big of a deal for other positions.  Maybe if you get a top five WR that pans out.

[arrowhead 1,070]

16 minutes ago, jetlord said:

Hill and Pickens in the first?  Possible.  Hill is at the top of my wish list.  Wyatt still on the board at #50?  Can't see that.  He looks to be the most effective pass rushing DT in the draft.  

That's what I thought. He has Veach Trading up for the Titans (26) pick and taking Hill

Seven-round 2022 NFL mock draft, Round 4: WR David Bell, CB Kalon Barnes among Ravens' five selections