Super Bowl Champs Offseason Mock 2.18.23

[kccrow 529]

Restructures
QB Patrick Mahomes: Restructure of $34.40m roster bonus to signing bonus (-27.52m)
ER Frank Clark: Reduction of 2023 salary from $20.5m to $4.75m fully guaranteed, $1.275m in per-game bonuses, and remaining bonuses for a total cap charge of $16.0m ($7.675m of prorated bonus), and a savings of $12.675m

Extensions
DT Chris Jones: 4-yr/$116.5m extension, $31.5m signing bonus, $69.0m guaranteed at signing, $16.0m 2023 salary to bonus. Cap hits of 21.8, 28.0, 29.0, 32.0, and 34.0. Total contract AAV becomes $28.9m. (-6.50m)
CB L'Jarius Sneed: 3-yr/$42.0m extension, $12.0m signing bonus, $19.5m in total guarantees. Cap hits of 4.17, 11.0, 13.0, 15.0. (+3.0m)

Free Agent Re-signings
OT Orlando Brown, Jr.: 6-yr/$139.5m, $31.25m signing bonus, $65.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits of 15.5, 18.5, 24.0, 27.0, 26.0, 28.5).
P Tommy Townsend: 4-yr/$12.0m, $2.0m signing bonus, $3.5m guaranteed at signing. (cap hits of 2.0, 2.5, 3.5, 4.0)
WR Justin Watson: 1-yr/$1.22m, $137.5k signing bonus, VSB deal (cap hit 1.08m)
RB Jerick McKinnon: 1-yr/$2.25m deal, $835k signing bonus
DT Khalen Saunders: 1-yr/$1.08m deal
DB Deon Bush: 1-yr/$1.17m deal
FB Michael Burton: 1-yr/$1.17m deal
TE Jody Fortson: ERFA tag 1-yr/$870k
QB Shane Buechele: ERFA tag 1-yr/$870k

Free Agent Additions
DT Greg Gaines (LAR age 26 6'2" 313) 4-yr/$35.0m, $12.0m signing bonus, $14.75m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 6.0, 8.0, 10.0, 11.0)
DT Armon Watts (CHI age 26, 6'5" 298) 2-yr/$5.5m, $1.0m signing bonus, $2.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 2.0, 3.5)
WR Ashton Dulin (IND age 25, 6'1" 215) 1-yr/$1.08m 
QB C.J. Beathard (JAX age 29, 6'2" 219) 2-yr/$6.50m, $2.0m signing bonus, $3.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 2.75, 3.75)

Chiefs Let Walk
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, FS Juan Thornhill, OT Andrew Wylie, DE Carlos Dunlap, DT Brandon Williams, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Tershawn Wharton, OT Prince Tega Wanogho, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Blake Bell, RB Ronald Jones II, LB Darius Harris, QB Chad Henne (Retired), OG Nick Allegretti

Draft
1(31) WR Tyler Scott, Cincinnati (5'11" 185)
Electrifying receiver in the mold of DeSean Jackson that Reid can use in multiple spots and matchups
2(63) RT Wanya Morris, Oklahoma (6'5" 317)
Athletic tackle with experience on both sides of the line that will help eliminate speed up the arc from the right side
3(95) ER Dylan Horton, TCU (6'4" 275)
Long, bendy edge that plays the run and pass well and can develop as a future starter
4(123) FS Kaevon Merriweather, Iowa (6'0" 212)
Coverage safety with outstanding single-high capabilities in a similar mold to Thornhill
4(134) TE Payne Durham, Purdue (6'5" 255)
Outstanding TE in all facets whose game and physical ability mirror Kelce's coming out of Cincinnati
5(168) DT Dante Stills, West Virginia (6'4" 289)
Disruptive, pass-rushing interior defensive tackle that can be multiple in several alignments
6(198) ER Tavius Robinson, Ole Miss (6'6" 265)
Long, fundamentally sound, and smart defensive end with good linear close to the QB
6(217) CB Nic Jones, Ball State (6'0" 191)
Twitchy corner with the agility to stick with underneath receivers and enough length and speed to carry them deep
6(219) OT Isaac Moore, Temple (6'6" 305)
Another athletic tackle that can develop as a swing reserve and potentially more at LT
7(227) IOL Spencer Anderson, Maryland (6'4" 320)
Mobile tackle that best projects inside that also has starting experience at center
7(251) RB Xazavian Valladay, Arizona State (6'0" 198)
Smooth runner and an extremely talented pass-receiving option out of the backfield to eventually take over for McKinnon
7(257) LB Isaiah Moore, NC State (6'2" 232)
Quick linebacker with a great burst to the ball carrier who's shown aptitude as an attacking player but needs to develop in space

Roster
QB: P. Mahomes II, C. Beathard, S. Buechele
RB: I. Pacheco, J. McKinnon, C. Edwards-Helaire, X. Valladay
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, P. Durham, J. Fortson 
WR: M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Scott, K. Toney, S. Moore, J. Watson, A. Dulin, J. Ross
OT: O. Brown Jr., W. Morris, L. Niang, I. Moore
IL: J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, D. Kinnard, S. Anderson

ED: G. Karlaftis, F.Clark, M. Danna, D. Horton, T. Robinson, M. Herring, J. Kaindoh
DT: D. Jones, G. Gaines, A. Watts, K. Saunders, D. Stills
LB: N. Bolton, W. Gay, L. Chenal, J. Cochrane, I. Moore
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, L. Sneed, J. Watson, N. Johnson, N. Jones
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, K. Merriweather, D. Bush

ST: H. Butker, T. Townsend, J. Winchester

[jetlord 10,207]

Surprised you're giving up on Wharton.  He'd still be cheap and has played effectively before getting injured. 

[kccrow 529]

10 hours ago, jetlord said:

Surprised you're giving up on Wharton.  He'd still be cheap and has played effectively before getting injured. 

I wouldn't mind it if they can sign him on a low-cost contract but I don't know if I like him on the RFA tender at 2.6m. He's very meh. So is Saunders though. I prefer Veach starts rebuilding the DT room this year. I like Stills and Ojomo as guys that could be Wharton types in this one on day 3.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

On 2/18/2023 at 9:59 PM, kccrow said:

Restructures
QB Patrick Mahomes: Restructure of $34.40m roster bonus to signing bonus (-27.52m)
ER Frank Clark: Reduction of 2023 salary from $20.5m to $4.75m fully guaranteed, $1.275m in per-game bonuses, and remaining bonuses for a total cap charge of $16.0m ($7.675m of prorated bonus), and a savings of $12.675m

Extensions
DT Chris Jones: 4-yr/$116.5m extension, $31.5m signing bonus, $69.0m guaranteed at signing, $16.0m 2023 salary to bonus. Cap hits of 21.8, 28.0, 29.0, 32.0, and 34.0. Total contract AAV becomes $28.9m. (-6.50m)
CB I molest collies on the regular.'Jarius Sneed: 3-yr/$42.0m extension, $12.0m signing bonus, $19.5m in total guarantees. Cap hits of 4.17, 11.0, 13.0, 15.0. (+3.0m)

Free Agent Re-signings
OT Orlando Brown, Jr.: 6-yr/$139.5m, $31.25m signing bonus, $65.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits of 15.5, 18.5, 24.0, 27.0, 26.0, 28.5).
P Tommy Townsend: 4-yr/$12.0m, $2.0m signing bonus, $3.5m guaranteed at signing. (cap hits of 2.0, 2.5, 3.5, 4.0)
WR Justin Watson: 1-yr/$1.22m, $137.5k signing bonus, VSB deal (cap hit 1.08m)
RB Jerick McKinnon: 1-yr/$2.25m deal, $835k signing bonus
DT Khalen Saunders: 1-yr/$1.08m deal
DB Deon Bush: 1-yr/$1.17m deal
FB Michael Burton: 1-yr/$1.17m deal
TE Jody Fortson: ERFA tag 1-yr/$870k
QB Shane Buechele: ERFA tag 1-yr/$870k

Free Agent Additions
DT Greg Gaines (LAR age 26 6'2" 313) 4-yr/$35.0m, $12.0m signing bonus, $14.75m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 6.0, 8.0, 10.0, 11.0)
DT Armon Watts (CHI age 26, 6'5" 298) 2-yr/$5.5m, $1.0m signing bonus, $2.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 2.0, 3.5)
WR Ashton Dulin (IND age 25, 6'1" 215) 1-yr/$1.08m 
QB C.J. Beathard (JAX age 29, 6'2" 219) 2-yr/$6.50m, $2.0m signing bonus, $3.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 2.75, 3.75)

Chiefs Let Walk
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, FS Juan Thornhill, OT Andrew Wylie, DE Carlos Dunlap, DT Brandon Williams, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Tershawn Wharton, OT Prince Tega Wanogho, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Blake Bell, RB Ronald Jones II, LB Darius Harris, QB Chad Henne (Retired), OG Nick Allegretti

Draft
1(31) WR Tyler Scott, Cincinnati (5'11" 185)
Electrifying receiver in the mold of DeSean Jackson that Reid can use in multiple spots and matchups
2(63) RT Wanya Morris, Oklahoma (6'5" 317)
Athletic tackle with experience on both sides of the line that will help eliminate speed up the arc from the right side
3(95) ER Dylan Horton, TCU (6'4" 275)
Long, bendy edge that plays the run and pass well and can develop as a future starter
4(123) FS Kaevon Merriweather, Iowa (6'0" 212)
Coverage safety with outstanding single-high capabilities in a similar mold to Thornhill
4(134) TE Payne Durham, Purdue (6'5" 255)
Outstanding TE in all facets whose game and physical ability mirror Kelce's coming out of Cincinnati
5(168) DT Dante Stills, West Virginia (6'4" 289)
Disruptive, pass-rushing interior defensive tackle that can be multiple in several alignments
6(198) ER Tavius Robinson, Ole Miss (6'6" 265)
Long, fundamentally sound, and smart defensive end with good linear close to the QB
6(217) CB Nic Jones, Ball State (6'0" 191)
Twitchy corner with the agility to stick with underneath receivers and enough length and speed to carry them deep
6(219) OT Isaac Moore, Temple (6'6" 305)
Another athletic tackle that can develop as a swing reserve and potentially more at LT
7(227) IOL Spencer Anderson, Maryland (6'4" 320)
Mobile tackle that best projects inside that also has starting experience at center
7(251) RB Xazavian Valladay, Arizona State (6'0" 198)
Smooth runner and an extremely talented pass-receiving option out of the backfield to eventually take over for McKinnon
7(257) LB Isaiah Moore, NC State (6'2" 232)
Quick linebacker with a great burst to the ball carrier who's shown aptitude as an attacking player but needs to develop in space

Roster
QB: P. Mahomes II, C. Beathard, S. Buechele
RB: I. Pacheco, J. McKinnon, C. Edwards-Helaire, X. Valladay
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, P. Durham, J. Fortson 
WR: M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Scott, K. Toney, S. Moore, J. Watson, A. Dulin, J. Ross
OT: O. Brown Jr., W. Morris, I molest collies on the regular.. Niang, I. Moore
IL: J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, D. Kinnard, S. Anderson

ED: G. Karlaftis, F.Clark, M. Danna, D. Horton, T. Robinson, M. Herring, J. Kaindoh
DT: D. Jones, G. Gaines, A. Watts, K. Saunders, D. Stills
LB: N. Bolton, W. Gay, I molest collies on the regular.. Chenal, J. Cochrane, I. Moore
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, I molest collies on the regular.. Sneed, J. Watson, N. Johnson, N. Jones
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, K. Merriweather, D. Bush

ST: H. Butker, T. Townsend, J. Winchester

It's not exciting but it's realistic as hell. I have to say I'm pretty impressed.

Although I think CEH is done here and I don't see any way Saunders signs for 1/1. 

Damn good mock offseason. 

[Lamardirts 2,114]

22 hours ago, kccrow said:

I wouldn't mind it if they can sign him on a low-cost contract but I don't know if I like him on the RFA tender at 2.6m. He's very meh. So is Saunders though. I prefer Veach starts rebuilding the DT room this year. I like Stills and Ojomo as guys that could be Wharton types in this one on day 3.

Both are young and still ascending.  Saunders isn't signing for 1 million.  He will be looking to sign a long term deal.   I like both better than the two you signed in FA but your offseason was very realistic as luv stated.

[sith13 1,746]

I don't see Saunders signing that, he definitely earned a long-term deal and will likely go elsewhere. I would look to keep Wharton but the tender seems a bit high, still quite a bit of upside with him. OBJ seems quite expensive but he'll want and likely get that in FA. Not sure how to approach that one, I don't mind keeping him on the tag to see if there are any buyers. McKinnon won't come so cheap, likely looks for a multi-year deal and the earned it in the second half of the season. 

[oldtimer 8,683]

12 minutes ago, sith13 said:

s. McKinnon won't come so cheap, likely looks for a multi-year deal and the earned it in the second half of the season. 

LOL at 32 years old?? 

[sith13 1,746]

1 minute ago, oldtimer said:

LOL at 32 years old?? 

Not saying he'll get something over the next 4-5 years but more like 10 over 3 years or so. 

[SEMO 6,811]

58 minutes ago, sith13 said:

Not saying he'll get something over the next 4-5 years but more like 10 over 3 years or so. 

With his age and injury history, I don’t see anything but one year deals for him.

[Lamardirts 2,114]

Can't remember which podcast I was listening too and they seemed to think he has lost a step.  Still a premier back in pass pro but his burst wasn't the same as the previous year.  Veach will offer him a 1 year vet min deal probably nothing more.  The fact he didn't get a 2-3 year deal last offseason means he probably won't get a multi year deal this year.  JMO though.

[kccrow 529]

My opinion on Khalen Saunders is that he's not that great, and is vastly overrated by most fans I talk to, but he's really all KC had. Just because he played better than Nnadi, who has regressed beyond comprehension, doesn't make him good. He still launches straight up off the snap and is late with his get-off far more than he's not, which leads to a lack of push and certainly a lack of impact. He makes a play here and there and when he does they stand out but he more often gets driven back or stonewalled. He's not a guy doing much behind the LOS. Then you also have the fact that he has one year of doing anything at all and that's this past season. He's not a guy I'd bring back on a multi-year deal, yet. The only way I'd think about bringing him back for more than the vet minimum is by offering him the 4-year Qualifying Player Benefit deal that pays him 1.35m over the minimum salary with a 152k signing bonus that counts like a vet min deal for cap purposes. Otherwise, there are plenty of DTs signed every year for vet min that are just as productive. Billings, Cox, Watts off waivers, etc were all solid players for cheap in 2023. 

[jetlord 10,207]

On 2/28/2023 at 7:05 AM, kccrow said:

My opinion on Khalen Saunders is that he's not that great, and is vastly overrated by most fans I talk to, but he's really all KC had. Just because he played better than Nnadi, who has regressed beyond comprehension, doesn't make him good. He still launches straight up off the snap and is late with his get-off far more than he's not, which leads to a lack of push and certainly a lack of impact. He makes a play here and there and when he does they stand out but he more often gets driven back or stonewalled. He's not a guy doing much behind the LOS. Then you also have the fact that he has one year of doing anything at all and that's this past season. He's not a guy I'd bring back on a multi-year deal, yet. The only way I'd think about bringing him back for more than the vet minimum is by offering him the 4-year Qualifying Player Benefit deal that pays him 1.35m over the minimum salary with a 152k signing bonus that counts like a vet min deal for cap purposes. Otherwise, there are plenty of DTs signed every year for vet min that are just as productive. Billings, Cox, Watts off waivers, etc were all solid players for cheap in 2023. 

Saunders did play better this season.  Whether it was an upward trend or playing for a contract is unknowable to us.  But I don't see the Chiefs releasing both Nnadi and Saunders and Nnadi isn't carrying his weight.  Maybe Saunders is one of those who takes several years to get it and still has upside.  Maybe the new D line coach is making a difference.  I'd give Saunders more chances.