Chiefs and analytics

[kkuenn 3,597]

Interesting read. Imagine having Taylor as our RB and Mettcalf as a WR. This goes into analytics of the Chiefs and brings up some good points.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-chiefs-didnt-need-analytics-to-win-another-championship/

 

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The Chiefs Didn't Need Analytics To Win Another Championship

By Michael Salfino

FEB. 23, 2023, AT 6:00 AM

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid bought the championship Chiefs a lot of margin for error. 

EZRA SHAW / GETTY IMAGES

Super Bowl LVII proved once again that the Kansas City Chiefs don’t need analytics. They win the old-fashioned way — with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid creating massive advantages that render ill-advised game management and roster decisions meaningless. 

Mahomes needs no introduction. And Reid is one of the most respected offensive masterminds in football, with a trademark being his deft play design. In the Super Bowl, that resulted in not one but two touchdowns by receivers with 10 or more yards of separation, just the fifth time that’s happened in any game since 2016. But Reid’s clock management, challenge decisions and passivity in going for fourth downs and two-point conversions — the modern ways we measure coaching — are all behind the times. And all of those were on display in the Super Bowl, too. Moreover, the Chiefs also won in spite of not building their roster in the way prescribed by analytics. 

But in the end, there Mahomes and Reid were, hoisting the Lombardi Trophy anyway. 

Let’s start with the roster-building. Going into 2022, Kansas City was staring at the bill for a bevy of questionable draft picks, trades and contracts, plus the fact that Mahomes’s cap hit was growing from $7.4 million to $35.8 million. So in March, the team was forced to let go of perhaps the game’s best receiver, Tyreek Hill, due to salary-cap woes. This was despite the value of franchise-caliber wideouts being generally viewed as highly as ever. 

Trading Hill became necessary because the Chiefs were paying market-value deals for a left tackle (Orlando Brown) and defensive end (Frank Clark) who were themselves acquired for first-round picks on the cusp of requiring massive contracts. While Brown was arguably worth the money, Clark was graded as just the 69th-best defensive end by Pro Football Focus despite the $104 million contract he was instantly awarded by the Chiefs in 2019.

 

 

 

The rest is on next post.

[kkuenn 3,597]

 

 

And yet, despite losing the NFL’s best playmaker, the Chiefs actually scored more points and gained more yards than in 2021, leading the NFL in both categories. That was with no Chiefs WR finishing in the top 20 in receiving yards or top 30 in receiving touchdowns. Who needs impact WRs, the NFL’s hottest new cheat code, when you have Mahomes?

Of course, trading first-round picks for veterans making market money is preferable to using them on running backs — something the Chiefs also did with Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020. Edwards-Helaire was a healthy scratch in the Super Bowl, usurped by a seventh-round rookie (Isiah Pacheco). The Chiefs passed on Jonathan Taylor (a second-round pick) to take Edwards-Helaire, who had a consensus mock-draft ranking nearly a round later than where Kansas City drafted him. Ignoring consensus rankings at a position of perceived need was a mistake K.C. made the year before as well, when the team picked Mecole Hardman over D.K. Metcalf despite Metcalf having a consensus draft ranking 62 spots higher. The Chiefs could have had both Taylor and Metcalf on rookie deals since 2019 if they just went chalk in the draft.

 

But none of those count as the biggest face-plant by the Chiefs when it comes to roster management. That honor goes to handing out one of the league’s biggest contracts to a kicker, Harrison Butker, who graded as one of the worst in the league in 2022. And Butker even helped to enable some questionable game management by Reid in the Super Bowl.

The first instance was with the score tied 7-7 in the first quarter and the Chiefs facing a fourth-and-3 from the Philadelphia 24-yard line. Analytical models say to go for it. (And that’s generally speaking, so not even factoring in that Butker is not a good kicker while Mahomes definitely is a great quarterback.) On third and fourth downs with from 2 to 4 yards to go in 2022, the Chiefs were 6 percentage points better than average at converting. Since 2020, they’re the best in the NFL and also 10 points better than average.¹ Yet Reid predictably opted for a field goal, which Butker missed, basically resulting in a turnover that led directly to an Eagles touchdown. 

Then, in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs took a seven-point lead after the Eagles (of all teams, given their usual fourth-down aggressiveness) opted to punt in their own territory on fourth-and-3. Instead of going for two to potentially make it a two-possession game, the Chiefs opted to kick the extra point to go up eight — a margin the Eagles would knock down to zero within five minutes.

 

 

That was hardly a surprise. Despite how badly Butker struggles with extra points (92.4 percent over the past three years, versus an NFL average of 94.6 percent), the Chiefs go for two just 5.4 percent of the time, the second-lowest rate in football since 2018. That’s despite converting two-thirds of the time when they do go for two, the second-highest success rate in the NFL. At those rates, had they gone for two after every TD instead of kicking, the Chiefs would have scored 116 more points (or 23.2 more per year). 

In 2021, ESPN surveyed analytics staffers across the NFL and, when asked to name the top five teams in analytics, the Chiefs did not receive a single vote (16 teams did). To be fair, no one named them the least-analytically savvy team, either, but what analytics professional would want to name a perennial Super Bowl favorite like the Chiefs an analytically inept team?

They’d basically be admitting that it’s not enough to master all the little things, like the Eagles generally do and did (for the most part) during the Super Bowl. That it simply does not matter that the Chiefs are doing those things wrong in the eyes of the numbers. Because the big things in Kansas City, the playmaking genius of Mahomes and the offensive innovation of Reid, will always be right

[reesebobby 5,662]

1 hour ago, kkuenn said:

 

 

And yet, despite losing the NFL’s best playmaker, the Chiefs actually scored more points and gained more yards than in 2021, leading the NFL in both categories. That was with no Chiefs WR finishing in the top 20 in receiving yards or top 30 in receiving touchdowns. Who needs impact WRs, the NFL’s hottest new cheat code, when you have Mahomes?

Of course, trading first-round picks for veterans making market money is preferable to using them on running backs — something the Chiefs also did with Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020. Edwards-Helaire was a healthy scratch in the Super Bowl, usurped by a seventh-round rookie (Isiah Pacheco). The Chiefs passed on Jonathan Taylor (a second-round pick) to take Edwards-Helaire, who had a consensus mock-draft ranking nearly a round later than where Kansas City drafted him. Ignoring consensus rankings at a position of perceived need was a mistake K.C. made the year before as well, when the team picked Mecole Hardman over D.K. Metcalf despite Metcalf having a consensus draft ranking 62 spots higher. The Chiefs could have had both Taylor and Metcalf on rookie deals since 2019 if they just went chalk in the draft.

 

But none of those count as the biggest face-plant by the Chiefs when it comes to roster management. That honor goes to handing out one of the league’s biggest contracts to a kicker, Harrison Butker, who graded as one of the worst in the league in 2022. And Butker even helped to enable some questionable game management by Reid in the Super Bowl.

The first instance was with the score tied 7-7 in the first quarter and the Chiefs facing a fourth-and-3 from the Philadelphia 24-yard line. Analytical models say to go for it. (And that’s generally speaking, so not even factoring in that Butker is not a good kicker while Mahomes definitely is a great quarterback.) On third and fourth downs with from 2 to 4 yards to go in 2022, the Chiefs were 6 percentage points better than average at converting. Since 2020, they’re the best in the NFL and also 10 points better than average.¹ Yet Reid predictably opted for a field goal, which Butker missed, basically resulting in a turnover that led directly to an Eagles touchdown. 

Then, in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs took a seven-point lead after the Eagles (of all teams, given their usual fourth-down aggressiveness) opted to punt in their own territory on fourth-and-3. Instead of going for two to potentially make it a two-possession game, the Chiefs opted to kick the extra point to go up eight — a margin the Eagles would knock down to zero within five minutes.

 

 

That was hardly a surprise. Despite how badly Butker struggles with extra points (92.4 percent over the past three years, versus an NFL average of 94.6 percent), the Chiefs go for two just 5.4 percent of the time, the second-lowest rate in football since 2018. That’s despite converting two-thirds of the time when they do go for two, the second-highest success rate in the NFL. At those rates, had they gone for two after every TD instead of kicking, the Chiefs would have scored 116 more points (or 23.2 more per year). 

In 2021, ESPN surveyed analytics staffers across the NFL and, when asked to name the top five teams in analytics, the Chiefs did not receive a single vote (16 teams did). To be fair, no one named them the least-analytically savvy team, either, but what analytics professional would want to name a perennial Super Bowl favorite like the Chiefs an analytically inept team?

They’d basically be admitting that it’s not enough to master all the little things, like the Eagles generally do and did (for the most part) during the Super Bowl. That it simply does not matter that the Chiefs are doing those things wrong in the eyes of the numbers. Because the big things in Kansas City, the playmaking genius of Mahomes and the offensive innovation of Reid, will always be right

How many times have we seen teams use analytics against us and really shit the bed?  I think reid does a good job with mixing analytics with common sense.  He's definitely more aggressive than he used to be.  But not stupid like some of these guys 

[Holmes4six! 968]

6 hours ago, reesebobby said:

How many times have we seen teams use analytics against us and really shit the bed?  I think reid does a good job with mixing analytics with common sense.  He's definitely more aggressive than he used to be.  But not stupid like some of these guys 

Yep. I still think that 4 th and 3 and going for the FG instead of going for it was the right call in the moment. 

[jetlord 10,209]

24 minutes ago, Holmes4six! said:

Yep. I still think that 4 th and 3 and going for the FG instead of going for it was the right call in the moment. 

Not so sure.  Make the FG and get three points.  Miss the FG and give the Eagles the ball on the 32.  Let's say 80-90% make it.

Go for it and have a first down in the red zone.  Shorter FG but more likely, a chance to get seven and let the Eagles play catch up.  Assume 75% make the first down and 50% score the TD.  Fail to make it and Eagles get the ball inside the 24.  My percentages could be way off, but the opportunity to make 7 seems the best choice.   

[reesebobby 5,662]

7 hours ago, jetlord said:

Not so sure.  Make the FG and get three points.  Miss the FG and give the Eagles the ball on the 32.  Let's say 80-90% make it.

Go for it and have a first down in the red zone.  Shorter FG but more likely, a chance to get seven and let the Eagles play catch up.  Assume 75% make the first down and 50% score the TD.  Fail to make it and Eagles get the ball inside the 24.  My percentages could be way off, but the opportunity to make 7 seems the best choice.   

4th and 3 is a 47% conversion rate for the league.  The Chiefs are better than average offensively obviously but the eagles are better than average defensively.  I don't know how to account for that. But I do know we have won games against the chargers because they refused to take points at times. 

[oldtimer 8,686]

I'm a big proponent in Playoff games or just games that are against a higher quality opponent YOU TAKE THE POINTS!

JMO but at that time I am not sure anyone foresaw the Scrum formation on dang near every 4rth down. A stop by the Eagles IMO would of been a bigger emotional flip that the missed FG and a made FG would of more possibly releaved much of the need for the last minute heroics.

 

[jetlord 10,209]

4 hours ago, reesebobby said:

   but the eagles are better than average defensively.   

Not against good offenses with elite QBs.  Aren't the Chiefs at the top in third down conversions?  Should also apply to fourth downs as long as they don't try to run up the middle with a deep handoff.  

[West 6,713]

Thanks for posting this KK.  I read this yesterday in one of the New Outlets.

The thesis "That the Chiefs are not following the Analytics because Reid and Mahomes are smarter and better able to execute" is strong.

Chiefs are super unique, especially on offense.  That said- Spags is the bomb. His adjustments at 1/2 time are super.  The dude just finds a way to win SB's.

This time with Rookies all over the place.

 

w

 

 

[Holmes4six! 968]

6 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I'm a big proponent in Playoff games or just games that are against a higher quality opponent YOU TAKE THE POINTS!

JMO but at that time I am not sure anyone foresaw the Scrum formation on dang near every 4rth down. A stop by the Eagles IMO would of been a bigger emotional flip that the missed FG and a made FG would of more possibly releaved much of the need for the last minute heroics.

 

I agree. This was my point in kicking the FG instead going for it. 

[mex 65,581]

Butker doesn't choke when the game is on the line. That's the most important attribute in a kicker, IMO.

Yeah some of his misses leave us scratching our heads... but when they're mid-game it leaves time to overcome.  But his performance in the playoffs and SB have been clutch. His kick vs buff at the end of 13 seconds... his kick to beat cincy... his kick to win the SB... you can't ask for more pressure and he was cooler'n the other side of the pillow.

One thing those analytics didn't factor in is the Chiefs' poor red zone performance this season. That's always in the back of Andy's mind... likely why he opted for the PAT most of the time. 

[jetlord 10,209]

4 hours ago, mex said:

Butker doesn't choke when the game is on the line. That's the most important attribute in a kicker, IMO.

Yeah some of his misses leave us scratching our heads... but when they're mid-game it leaves time to overcome.  But his performance in the playoffs and SB have been clutch. His kick vs buff at the end of 13 seconds... his kick to beat cincy... his kick to win the SB... you can't ask for more pressure and he was cooler'n the other side of the pillow.

One thing those analytics didn't factor in is the Chiefs' poor red zone performance this season. That's always in the back of Andy's mind... likely why he opted for the PAT most of the time. 

I trust the Chiefs offense on third and three more than on third and one.   They need to fix that short yardage failure rate. 

[mex 65,581]

19 minutes ago, jetlord said:

I trust the Chiefs offense on third and three more than on third and one.   They need to fix that short yardage failure rate. 

You know Andy will be working on that in the offseason.