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Crow's Mock 4.2.23


kccrow

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1-31. WR Rashee Rice, SMU (6'1" 204)
Rice is a bigger WR with outstanding short-area quickness and YAC potential that also boasts a large catch radius and excellent vertical ability. Rice is the type of guy that can start in any role. Rice looks faster than his electronically-timed 4.51 40 and so reports of hand-timed discrepancies around 4.39 might hold some water. Either way, he tested very similarly to Aiyuk and he's probably somewhere in between in the 40, which is plenty fast for a guy with his quickness to uncover. Reid gets his new Jeremy Maclin.

2-46. DT Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin (6'4" 309)
KC trades 2nd #63, 4th #134 & 2024 3rd to NE for 2nd #46
For me, the Chiefs' glaring weakness comes at the NT position where they lack any reasonable push or disruption. Benton is a good blend of size and ability against both the run and the pass. He has a lot more juice as a pass rusher than Mazi Smith, which makes him a bit more desirable at the position. He played 0-Tech at Wisconsin but his traits make him a high fit as a one-gap 1-tech or even a 3-tech at the NFL level.

3-95. OT Tyler Steen, Alabama (6'6" 321)
Steen is a good tackle that should function adequately as a swing while he gets his feet under him as a rookie but could start right away at guard. He might eventually fit best at LG when the Chiefs move on from Joe Thuney. Overall, the only major concern for Steen is his arm length which is on the margin at a shade under 33" but he just might have the technical proficiency to make it work outside.

4-122. DE Tavius Robinson, Mississippi (6'6" 257)
Signing Omenihu to a 2-year deal gives the Chiefs some breathing room to take a DE they can develop and rotate in a bit later than they otherwise would have. Robinson is a real sleeper to me as he lined up as a 5T DE in the Rebels 3-4 scheme but has the build and athletic attributes of a 4-3 DE, including a good get-off and closing burst. I think if you can get this guy outside of the tackle instead of inside on a regular basis you'll see an already solid pressure rate go up. His experience playing further inside helps his projection in Spags' front when he wants to shift speed inside.

5-166. DT Dante Stills, West Virginia (6'3" 286)
Stills gets off the ball like he's shot out of a cannon to consistently disrupt plays at the line and in the backfield. Stills isn't the biggest or longest guy but his quickness is a problem for offensive linemen. He twice put up 7+ sacks and 14+ tackles for a loss in a power conference and has had solid stats throughout his career. For all the talk of a guy like Calijah Kancey, Stills is similar and boasts a non-stop motor. Plus, his dad was drafted and played for the Chiefs so what a story that would be.

6-178. WR Xavier Gipson, Stephen F. Austin (5'9" 189)
Gipson has outstanding short-area burst and enough speed (4.38) to take the top off when it presents itself. He'll always fit best in an off-line position and as a move player in order to take advantage of his agility and maximize his catch potential. Gipson was also a productive returner, a spot KC should look to add bodies at.

6-217. CB Kahlef Hailassie, Western Kentucky (6'1" 195)
Hailassie is scheduled for a top-30 visit with the Chiefs. He's an extremely agile big corner with ball skills and good tackling. What I like the most is Hailassie's ability to read the play and jump routes, which seems to be a trait severely lacking in the KC secondary. While Hailassie might be a candidate to stay outside, he has a skill set that screams nickel with his short-area quickness and tackling. Certainly, a guy to keep an eye on as a potential future Chief.

7-249. RB Xazavian Valladay, Arizona State (6'0" 198)
Valladay confirmed for me at his pro day that he's the RB I want late after turning on the burners with a 4.43. Valladay is an excellent outside zone runner and receiver out of the backfield with decent ability as a pass protector on 3rd down but doesn't look to have the ability to be an every-down starter. If a team feels that way, he could go much higher.

7-250. OT Earl Bostick, Jr., Kansas (6'6" 309)
Bostick is an athletic marvel but needs plenty of work on his technique and functional strength. He's very similar to Tega Wanogho and with PTW in his last year, another developmental investment is probably worthwhile. These are the types of projects that make your position coaches some money if they can get the skills to match the traits. If they do, this guy could be pretty special.

Chiefs Depth/Roster Chart

QB P. Mahomes II, S. Buechele
RB I. Pacheco, C. Edwards-Helaire, X. Valladay
WR K. Toney, M. Valdez-Scantling, R. Rice, S. Moore, X. Gipson, J. Ross
TE T. Kelce, Gray, J. Fortson, B. Bell, M. Bushman
OT J. Taylor, L. Niang, T. Steen, P. Tega-Wanogho, E. Bostick Jr.
IL J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, N. Allegretti, D. Kinnard

DE G. Karlaftis, C. Omenihu, M. Danna, T. Robinson, M. Herring, J. Kaindoh
DT C. Jones, K. Benton, D. Nnadi, D. Stills, T. Wharton, B. Cowart, D. Shelton
LB N. Bolton, D. Tranquill, L. Chenal, W. Gay, J. Cochrane
CB L. Sneed, T. McDuffie, J. Watson, J. Williams, K. Hailassie, N. Johnson
DB J. Reid, M. Edwards, B. Cook, D. Bush

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I have Rice as a 2nd or 3rd round guy.  Love the player though but too high for me when there are likely ends and OTs available.  Similar for Benton.  Hella good run defender but I can't justify all that for a 2 down defender.  Probably overselling his pass rush as they moved him off the nose for most of his pressures but are we going to be moving CJ off of 3 tech for him?  Maybe in obvious pass situations but more likely Spags will have an end there.

I like Tyler Steen but I have concerns he needs to kick inside.  Got lit up a bit much for my taste but overall handled the move to Bama pretty well.  Seems like a good developmental guy.  

I think that's a great spot for Tavius Robinson.  Give him a year in a weight room and a few sammiches, teach him some technique amd you could have something.

Good value with Stills.  I love a technician with a motor.

I'm ok with the rest.  Not sure about the value up high but it's always tough without knowing who else is available.

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1. Rice tested the same as Aiyuk who went in the 1st. You can use your draftabulator sites if you want to gauge his value but I'm going to highly disagree and say he's a fringe first to high 2nd (top 50) player based on skills. We're not a bottom-feeder team that can take him at 40 where he might "grade best." He's a perfect skill set for Reid and what this team needs right now. I'd have a hard time ever fathoming that he would be available in the 2nd or 3rd round. It simply is extremely unlikely. He's my 6th rated WR in this draft and fits better than my 4th or 5th (Flowers and Downs). 

2. Benton is the 2nd rated DT by some and anything but a 2-down run defender only. Basically, I'd like to tell you Mr. Xen, that you need to go back to the studies on Benton if you have that opinion. Benton played 0-tech 2-gap NT at Wisconsin, which is a humongous difference from playing 1-tech 1-gap NT in Spags 4-3. You don't move him anywhere to generate pressure from the 1. He proved at the Senior Bowl that he's a nightmare matchup when he's not getting forced to play his college position. I also want to say that being spoiled by Chris Jones as a pass rusher has significantly affected the perception of how much pass rush you should get out of a normal DT. I've seen it everywhere. Benton is fully capable of being a 4-6 sack guy in the NFL if he's not playing 0T/2G and he might get you more than that. And even if all you were getting were Dalvin Tomlinson, he's still worth a top-50 pick. I'd say he's much more like a Kenny Clark or Christian Wilkins from an athletic standpoint. That's 100% the type of guy KC needs next to Jones. They don't need another Chris Jones. 

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Just my opinion.  First 2 days where we pick is about finding value imo.  I watched both guys.  AAC guys are gonna get dinged for level of competition.  6'1" wideouts from a non power conference who run a 4.5 do not typically scream 1st round.   You could probably trade back and get him though.

I am of the opinion if you take a lineman high he should affect the pass game in a serious way, offense or defense.  

Difference of philosophy I suppose, Mr. Crow.

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7 hours ago, xen said:

Just my opinion.  First 2 days where we pick is about finding value imo.  I watched both guys.  AAC guys are gonna get dinged for level of competition.  6'1" wideouts from a non power conference who run a 4.5 do not typically scream 1st round.   You could probably trade back and get him though.

I am of the opinion if you take a lineman high he should affect the pass game in a serious way, offense or defense.  

Difference of philosophy I suppose, Mr. Crow.

 

It's okay to draft a WR in round 1 if he ran a 4.5 so long as he played in a power conference but not okay if he was from a non-power conference? I guess Tyree Wilson shouldn't be considered a top-10 talent because he only put up 7 sacks in each of the last two seasons in a non-power conference.

It's okay to draft a non-power WR so long as you trade back to say, 40, where Courtland Sutton was drafted from the same school? Because you know, 31 to 40 is such an enormous difference in talent and draft slotting. You're giving up a 5th-year option at a high-dollar position to gain an early 4th-round pick. Never mind he was dominant this season with 96 catches for 1,355 yards and 10 TDs. I'd call that much more dominant than Tyree Wilson was at his position.

Sure, he had a few turds this year and every WR does but against the best secondary on his schedule this year he torched Maryland for 11 for 193. Their corners will probably be drafted in the 1st and 3rd-4th rounds this year. He put up a respectable 6 for 74 and a TD against the #2 team in the country this year in TCU. 

If a guy is talented, he's talented. Guys from non-power conferences go in the 1st all the time. Guys that run in the 4.5's are highly successful WRs in the league. But even then, I'd say 4.51 is a bad day at the track for Rice. Even if you're going to focus on his "4.51," he had a 1.49 10-yard split. Only Darius Davis and Tre Tucker ran faster than that of all the guys that ran sub-4.50 and he tied with two others, Dell and Downs. He's got solid short-area quickness too. I won't say elite, but his combination of goods in that area is very solid (7.02 3-cone and 4.23 short shuttle), especially for a receiver that's near 6'1".  He has a great vertical too.

I'd say, argue you don't think he's talented enough to be a 1st rounder for reasons of x, y, z. Not this bullshit approach that he didn't come from a power school or that he didn't run a 4.3 because neither of those things really matter in the NFL. That's not philosophical differences, that's talent bias.

 

As for the lineman going high, I think you're underrating Benton's potential to affect the passing game. We also might have a difference in opinion about what "going high" is. That said, tackles that have limited effect on the passing game go in the 1st round all the time. Derrick Brown went 7th overall and averages 2 sacks a year and everyone sings his praises. Christian Wilkins went 13th overall and averages about 3.5 sacks a year and he's phenomenal. Dalvin Tomlinson went like 55th and he's one of the best run stuffers in the league and plays more than two downs with solid pressure (Back to that 9 pick difference lol). So, to say I'd have zero issues with taking a talent like that at 46 would be an understatement. Benton is a really good football player that makes a lot of plays away from his zone. You might call this a philosophical difference, but in my opinion, you're judging a pick of one position based on the credentials you'd expect of another. If we were talking a need at 3-tech, then you'd have more of an argument about the overall effect on the passing game. On obvious pass situations, Spags is going to slide big ends like Omenihu inside or he's going to sub in more optimal pass rush specialists at DT. We desperately need more talent at the 1-tech and Benton is aces for that spot. 

 

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1 hour ago, kccrow said:

 

It's okay to draft a WR in round 1 if he ran a 4.5 so long as he played in a power conference but not okay if he was from a non-power conference? I guess Tyree Wilson shouldn't be considered a top-10 talent because he only put up 7 sacks in each of the last two seasons in a non-power conference.

It's okay to draft a non-power WR so long as you trade back to say, 40, where Courtland Sutton was drafted from the same school? Because you know, 31 to 40 is such an enormous difference in talent and draft slotting. You're giving up a 5th-year option at a high-dollar position to gain an early 4th-round pick. Never mind he was dominant this season with 96 catches for 1,355 yards and 10 TDs. I'd call that much more dominant than Tyree Wilson was at his position.

Sure, he had a few turds this year and every WR does but against the best secondary on his schedule this year he torched Maryland for 11 for 193. Their corners will probably be drafted in the 1st and 3rd-4th rounds this year. He put up a respectable 6 for 74 and a TD against the #2 team in the country this year in TCU. 

If a guy is talented, he's talented. Guys from non-power conferences go in the 1st all the time. Guys that run in the 4.5's are highly successful WRs in the league. But even then, I'd say 4.51 is a bad day at the track for Rice. Even if you're going to focus on his "4.51," he had a 1.49 10-yard split. Only Darius Davis and Tre Tucker ran faster than that of all the guys that ran sub-4.50 and he tied with two others, Dell and Downs. He's got solid short-area quickness too. I won't say elite, but his combination of goods in that area is very solid (7.02 3-cone and 4.23 short shuttle), especially for a receiver that's near 6'1".  He has a great vertical too.

I'd say, argue you don't think he's talented enough to be a 1st rounder for reasons of x, y, z. Not this bullshit approach that he didn't come from a power school or that he didn't run a 4.3 because neither of those things really matter in the NFL. That's not philosophical differences, that's talent bias.

 

As for the lineman going high, I think you're underrating Benton's potential to affect the passing game. We also might have a difference in opinion about what "going high" is. That said, tackles that have limited effect on the passing game go in the 1st round all the time. Derrick Brown went 7th overall and averages 2 sacks a year and everyone sings his praises. Christian Wilkins went 13th overall and averages about 3.5 sacks a year and he's phenomenal. Dalvin Tomlinson went like 55th and he's one of the best run stuffers in the league and plays more than two downs with solid pressure (Back to that 9 pick difference lol). So, to say I'd have zero issues with taking a talent like that at 46 would be an understatement. Benton is a really good football player that makes a lot of plays away from his zone. You might call this a philosophical difference, but in my opinion, you're judging a pick of one position based on the credentials you'd expect of another. If we were talking a need at 3-tech, then you'd have more of an argument about the overall effect on the passing game. On obvious pass situations, Spags is going to slide big ends like Omenihu inside or he's going to sub in more optimal pass rush specialists at DT. We desperately need more talent at the 1-tech and Benton is aces for that spot. 

 

It's good to have you back Crow

Draft cant come soon enough

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On 4/1/2023 at 11:23 PM, kccrow said:

1-31. WR Rashee Rice, SMU (6'1" 204)
Rice is a bigger WR with outstanding short-area quickness and YAC potential that also boasts a large catch radius and excellent vertical ability. Rice is the type of guy that can start in any role. Rice looks faster than his electronically-timed 4.51 40 and so reports of hand-timed discrepancies around 4.39 might hold some water. Either way, he tested very similarly to Aiyuk and he's probably somewhere in between in the 40, which is plenty fast for a guy with his quickness to uncover. Reid gets his new Jeremy Maclin.

2-46. DT Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin (6'4" 309)
KC trades 2nd #63, 4th #134 & 2024 3rd to NE for 2nd #46
For me, the Chiefs' glaring weakness comes at the NT position where they lack any reasonable push or disruption. Benton is a good blend of size and ability against both the run and the pass. He has a lot more juice as a pass rusher than Mazi Smith, which makes him a bit more desirable at the position. He played 0-Tech at Wisconsin but his traits make him a high fit as a one-gap 1-tech or even a 3-tech at the NFL level.

3-95. OT Tyler Steen, Alabama (6'6" 321)
Steen is a good tackle that should function adequately as a swing while he gets his feet under him as a rookie but could start right away at guard. He might eventually fit best at LG when the Chiefs move on from Joe Thuney. Overall, the only major concern for Steen is his arm length which is on the margin at a shade under 33" but he just might have the technical proficiency to make it work outside.

4-122. DE Tavius Robinson, Mississippi (6'6" 257)
Signing Omenihu to a 2-year deal gives the Chiefs some breathing room to take a DE they can develop and rotate in a bit later than they otherwise would have. Robinson is a real sleeper to me as he lined up as a 5T DE in the Rebels 3-4 scheme but has the build and athletic attributes of a 4-3 DE, including a good get-off and closing burst. I think if you can get this guy outside of the tackle instead of inside on a regular basis you'll see an already solid pressure rate go up. His experience playing further inside helps his projection in Spags' front when he wants to shift speed inside.

5-166. DT Dante Stills, West Virginia (6'3" 286)
Stills gets off the ball like he's shot out of a cannon to consistently disrupt plays at the line and in the backfield. Stills isn't the biggest or longest guy but his quickness is a problem for offensive linemen. He twice put up 7+ sacks and 14+ tackles for a loss in a power conference and has had solid stats throughout his career. For all the talk of a guy like Calijah Kancey, Stills is similar and boasts a non-stop motor. Plus, his dad was drafted and played for the Chiefs so what a story that would be.

6-178. WR Xavier Gipson, Stephen F. Austin (5'9" 189)
Gipson has outstanding short-area burst and enough speed (4.38) to take the top off when it presents itself. He'll always fit best in an off-line position and as a move player in order to take advantage of his agility and maximize his catch potential. Gipson was also a productive returner, a spot KC should look to add bodies at.

6-217. CB Kahlef Hailassie, Western Kentucky (6'1" 195)
Hailassie is scheduled for a top-30 visit with the Chiefs. He's an extremely agile big corner with ball skills and good tackling. What I like the most is Hailassie's ability to read the play and jump routes, which seems to be a trait severely lacking in the KC secondary. While Hailassie might be a candidate to stay outside, he has a skill set that screams nickel with his short-area quickness and tackling. Certainly, a guy to keep an eye on as a potential future Chief.

7-249. RB Xazavian Valladay, Arizona State (6'0" 198)
Valladay confirmed for me at his pro day that he's the RB I want late after turning on the burners with a 4.43. Valladay is an excellent outside zone runner and receiver out of the backfield with decent ability as a pass protector on 3rd down but doesn't look to have the ability to be an every-down starter. If a team feels that way, he could go much higher.

7-250. OT Earl Bostick, Jr., Kansas (6'6" 309)
Bostick is an athletic marvel but needs plenty of work on his technique and functional strength. He's very similar to Tega Wanogho and with PTW in his last year, another developmental investment is probably worthwhile. These are the types of projects that make your position coaches some money if they can get the skills to match the traits. If they do, this guy could be pretty special.

Chiefs Depth/Roster Chart

QB P. Mahomes II, S. Buechele
RB I. Pacheco, C. Edwards-Helaire, X. Valladay
WR K. Toney, M. Valdez-Scantling, R. Rice, S. Moore, X. Gipson, J. Ross
TE T. Kelce, Gray, J. Fortson, B. Bell, M. Bushman
OT J. Taylor, L. Niang, T. Steen, P. Tega-Wanogho, E. Bostick Jr.
IL J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, N. Allegretti, D. Kinnard

DE G. Karlaftis, C. Omenihu, M. Danna, T. Robinson, M. Herring, J. Kaindoh
DT C. Jones, K. Benton, D. Nnadi, D. Stills, T. Wharton, B. Cowart, D. Shelton
LB N. Bolton, D. Tranquill, L. Chenal, W. Gay, J. Cochrane
CB L. Sneed, T. McDuffie, J. Watson, J. Williams, K. Hailassie, N. Johnson
DB J. Reid, M. Edwards, B. Cook, D. Bush

Damn how much time you spend on this shit? 

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36 minutes ago, mex said:

Damn how much time you spend on this shit? 

Too damn much, lol.

I do watch too much football, study way too many prospects, and pretty much do way too much of this for my own good, every year, but it's fun to me (at least I think...)

 

 

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You could be right on Rice.  Seeing him going in the first in some mocks.  I think ultimately he ends up in day 2.  Reasons would be him being a possession receiver that lost 2-3 inches of height, small school, drops, and lack of route diversity.   Again good player, and I love his yac ability which Andy emphasizes so maybe.  Quentin Johnson has drop issues as well and he's going in the first.

I'll take another look at Benton.  DT is a need for sure but my concern remains that most of his pressures came from 3 tech not when he was at 0, and Spags is gonna have CJ or an end there in obvious passing situations.  Great run defender and I always believe you need pressure from all over to be a good line.

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49 minutes ago, kccrow said:

Too damn much, lol.

I do watch too much football, study way too many prospects, and pretty much do way too much of this for my own good, every year, but it's fun to me (at least I think...)

 

 

Nothing wrong with that... it would have taken me three weeks to put together an analysis like that 😄

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28 minutes ago, xen said:

You could be right on Rice.  Seeing him going in the first in some mocks.  I think ultimately he ends up in day 2.  Reasons would be him being a possession receiver that lost 2-3 inches of height, small school, drops, and lack of route diversity.   Again good player, and I love his yac ability which Andy emphasizes so maybe.  Quentin Johnson has drop issues as well and he's going in the first.

I'll take another look at Benton.  DT is a need for sure but my concern remains that most of his pressures came from 3 tech not when he was at 0, and Spags is gonna have CJ or an end there in obvious passing situations.  Great run defender and I always believe you need pressure from all over to be a good line.

He probably did have slightly more pressure coming from 4i alignment than 0 but he had both. Ohio State game was a good one for pressure from him straight up the middle IIRC. I like the fact he could get pressure from both areas. And just letting that guy loose into a single gap to destroy worlds is probably his best use. I think he's perfect for our defense. 

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5 hours ago, kccrow said:

 

It's okay to draft a WR in round 1 if he ran a 4.5 so long as he played in a power conference but not okay if he was from a non-power conference? I guess Tyree Wilson shouldn't be considered a top-10 talent because he only put up 7 sacks in each of the last two seasons in a non-power conference.

It's okay to draft a non-power WR so long as you trade back to say, 40, where Courtland Sutton was drafted from the same school? Because you know, 31 to 40 is such an enormous difference in talent and draft slotting. You're giving up a 5th-year option at a high-dollar position to gain an early 4th-round pick. Never mind he was dominant this season with 96 catches for 1,355 yards and 10 TDs. I'd call that much more dominant than Tyree Wilson was at his position.

Sure, he had a few turds this year and every WR does but against the best secondary on his schedule this year he torched Maryland for 11 for 193. Their corners will probably be drafted in the 1st and 3rd-4th rounds this year. He put up a respectable 6 for 74 and a TD against the #2 team in the country this year in TCU. 

If a guy is talented, he's talented. Guys from non-power conferences go in the 1st all the time. Guys that run in the 4.5's are highly successful WRs in the league. But even then, I'd say 4.51 is a bad day at the track for Rice. Even if you're going to focus on his "4.51," he had a 1.49 10-yard split. Only Darius Davis and Tre Tucker ran faster than that of all the guys that ran sub-4.50 and he tied with two others, Dell and Downs. He's got solid short-area quickness too. I won't say elite, but his combination of goods in that area is very solid (7.02 3-cone and 4.23 short shuttle), especially for a receiver that's near 6'1".  He has a great vertical too.

I'd say, argue you don't think he's talented enough to be a 1st rounder for reasons of x, y, z. Not this bullshit approach that he didn't come from a power school or that he didn't run a 4.3 because neither of those things really matter in the NFL. That's not philosophical differences, that's talent bias.

 

As for the lineman going high, I think you're underrating Benton's potential to affect the passing game. We also might have a difference in opinion about what "going high" is. That said, tackles that have limited effect on the passing game go in the 1st round all the time. Derrick Brown went 7th overall and averages 2 sacks a year and everyone sings his praises. Christian Wilkins went 13th overall and averages about 3.5 sacks a year and he's phenomenal. Dalvin Tomlinson went like 55th and he's one of the best run stuffers in the league and plays more than two downs with solid pressure (Back to that 9 pick difference lol). So, to say I'd have zero issues with taking a talent like that at 46 would be an understatement. Benton is a really good football player that makes a lot of plays away from his zone. You might call this a philosophical difference, but in my opinion, you're judging a pick of one position based on the credentials you'd expect of another. If we were talking a need at 3-tech, then you'd have more of an argument about the overall effect on the passing game. On obvious pass situations, Spags is going to slide big ends like Omenihu inside or he's going to sub in more optimal pass rush specialists at DT. We desperately need more talent at the 1-tech and Benton is aces for that spot. 

 

Wait isn’t Tyree Wilson the DE from Texas Tech out of the big 12?  When did the big 12 lose their power conference status?

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6 hours ago, kccrow said:

He probably did have slightly more pressure coming from 4i alignment than 0 but he had both. Ohio State game was a good one for pressure from him straight up the middle IIRC. I like the fact he could get pressure from both areas. And just letting that guy loose into a single gap to destroy worlds is probably his best use. I think he's perfect for our defense. 

Yeah, but Ohio State sucks.

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8 hours ago, Palangi said:

Wait isn’t Tyree Wilson the DE from Texas Tech out of the big 12?  When did the big 12 lose their power conference status?

I mean, you can argue it if you want but there are two power conferences for football, the SEC and the Big 10.

You can throw the ACC, Big 12, PAC 12, Mountain West, American, and AAC into a bucket and shake out your choice for the next few but I'd call the differences marginal. You usually have a couple solid teams in each.

 

 

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