Dwayne Bowe explained

[kcchief4lif 910]

Dwayne Bowe is quietly efficient for the Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, Dwayne Bowe is making over $11 million this season. Yes, the scheduled cap hits for his current deal are $14 million, $13 million, and $13 million over the next three years. Yes, that's too much money to pay for a non-elite wide receiver. His contract, as things stand, makes it unlikely the Chiefs stick with the status quo over the next couple years (now that he's gone ahead and voided his guarantees by being suspended for a game). I get it.

But I don't want to talk about Dwayne Bowe's contract.

Now that we've gone and acknowledged the obvious, I want to talk about Dwayne Bowe the player as it pertains to THIS season. Forget about the contract for a few minutes. Just a few.

Because somehow, very quietly, Bowe is starting to piece together his most efficient season as a pro.

Let me give you a couple of minutes to stop laughing and making fun of me.

 

You good? Great. I suppose what got you laughing was the idea that Bowe is somehow better this season than he was in 2010 or 2011 (his most productive seasons by yards and touchdowns) is pretty ridiculous. Which is why I'm not here to argue as to whether Bowe is going to post better overall stats than he did those years.(waits)

This is where the word "efficiency" becomes important. Because so far this season, Bowe has been highly efficient with the targets he's received.

Through six games played this season, Bowe has amassed 25 receptions for 343 yards. On the surface (and even beneath the surface, really) that's not an impressive number. If you extrapolate it for the remainder of the season, Bowe is on pace to finish with (rounded, because the idea of decimal-point catches and yards is weird) 67 catches for 919 yards.

Again, those are hardly amazing numbers over 15 games, especially when compared to Bowe's two "career" seasons (2010 and 2011). His catches and yards those seasons:

2010: 72 catches, 1,162 yards.

2011: 81 catches, 1,159 yards.

But again, I'm not talking about base stats. I'm talking about efficiency. Which means we need to start talking about targets.

(Looong side note; targets are a funny figure. ESPN keeps track of them, but after going back and tracking their target counts in a couple of games I figured something out; ESPN calls any throw in the vicinity of a WR a "target," even if it's clearly a throwaway out of bounds. I'm not going to call that a target, because it's ridiculous. After tracking target counts and comparing my observations to the numbers listed with Pro Football Focus, I've found they account for passes that are clearly thrown away. So I'll be using their numbers. OK, back to the article)

So far Bowe has had 33 passes thrown his way with him being actually targeted. In case you've forgotten already, that number is extremely close to the number of actual receptions (25) Bowe has so far this year. In fact, he's catching passes thrown his way at a rate of 75.8 percent, far and away the highest of his career.

Use the Rams game as an example. Yes, Bowe only had six catches for 64 yards. However, he caught all six passes thrown his way. That means that Bowe averaged over 10 yards per TARGET, which is a whole separate gig from "per catch."

Pass Catching Offensive Efficiency

I noticed recently that Bowe has been making the most of the limited targets he's receiving. That got me wondering; how does Bowe's actual contribution per play stack up against his "superior" 2010 and 2011 seasons?

Remember, when a receiver is targeted and doesn't make the reception (for whatever reason), it's a lost down. It's a highly inefficient play to gain zero yards (duh). Additionally, the more targets a receiver gets, the more chances he gets to increase his base stats (catches and yards). Again, this might seem like "duh" territory ... but is it? How often do you see a receiver's targets referenced? It's always catches, yards, and touchdowns.

To maybe demonstrate my point better, let's take it to an extreme. Receiver X has eight catches for 110 yards in a game. Receiver Y has four catches for 75 yards. At the base level, anyone would say that Receiver X had the far superior game. more catches, more yards, more "impact." right?

Well, what if Receiver X was targeted 17 times by his quarterback while Receiver Y was targeted a mere five times? Now you have to take into account that nine plays to Receiver X netted you exactly jack and squat, while only one play to Receiver Y was unsuccessful. Sure, Receiver X had a better game by base statistics, but it took him almost four times as many opportunities. For a basketball analogy, it's a player scoring 30 points but needing 26 shots to do it.

A more accurate way to gauge a receiver's efficiency are catches and yards per target. This removes the problem of bias in favor of receivers who are getting big numbers but only at the cost of multiple "lost" downs.

And here's where things get kinda interesting for Bowe: Catches Per Target = CPT and Yards Per Target = YPT

Bowe's 2010- .576 CPT, 9.3 YPT

Bowe's 2011- .623 CPT, 8.91 YPT

Bowe's 2014- .76 CPT, 10.39 YPT

Bowe had bigger numbers in 2010 and 2011, but in large part it was due to a large number of targets (125 in 2010, 130 in 2011). This year, Bowe is on a pace to at least come within spitting distance of those numbers with way, way fewer targets.

In plain English, what this all means is that in 2014 the Chiefs are significantly more likely to get a catch when Bowe is targeted and are averaging a full extra yard every time they throw the ball his way. Maybe a single yard doesn't sound significant, but think about the difference between a 4.4 YPC average for a running back and a 5.4 YPC average. It's significant.

Where am I going with all this this gobbly-gook? It's simple; Bowe, on a per-target basis, is actually having the best season of his career in a year when many (and I'm not really an exception here) are screaming about how mediocre he's been.

Let me shoot down a couple of arguments to that paragraph before they're even brought up in the comments.

"But MN, Bowe doesn't even have a touchdown! Players are paid to score! That shows how mediocre he's been!"

I remember a couple of years ago when people who think like this thought Jamaal Charles wasn't quite elite because he didn't "have a nose for the end zone." Then boom, Andy Reid arrives to town and Jamaal leads the league in touchdowns!

What happened? Did JC suddenly transform into a touchdown machine overnight? Did he finally climb the mysterious mountain and learn from a Touchdown Shaman how to cross an invisible barrier signified by paint?

 

 

 

Of course not. What really changed were the circumstances. The offense as a whole improved significantly, leading to more chances in the red zone. And even more importantly, Charles got a coach who felt comfortable using him in goal line and other short yardage situations. And in the touchdowns poured.

The bottom line is that while it sounds great on the surface to call touchdowns the ultimate production (or whatever), the fact is they're very much determined by surrounding circumstances. Look no further than the subject of this column for an example. Bowe scored 15 touchdowns in 2010 and became a guy with a reputation for finding the end zone. Then that number dropped to five the next season. Again, situation and opportunity play a huge role in touchdowns.

In other words, touchdowns scored is about as silly a way of determining a receiver's level of play as interceptions are to determine a cornerback's level of play. It kinda / sorta tells you something, but not really.

"MN, you're just manipulating the stats until they say something good about Bowe. You've always been a Bowe homer!"

Well ... OK.

In all actuality, I was pretty surprised by all this. I've been right there next to everyone else calling Bowe's 2014 season subpar. It was only after this most recent game I started to wonder about Bowe's efficiency as compared to prior years.

So where to go from here?

Well, in all honesty, I'm not sure. I'm not really drawing any conclusions from all of this.

Efficiency stats are well and good, but the flip side of them is that smaller numbers of targets can lead to increased efficiency. Efficiency almost always drops as usage rate goes up. So my point isn't that Bowe is having some incredible season. it's just that he may not be as irrelevant or mediocre as we're all thinking.

In all actuality Bowe is making an impact on games, and doing it almost every time Alex Smith looks his way. Which leads me to a final question; with Bowe producing so efficiently, will he start getting more targets?

I don't know, but I sure hope so. There are two things we need to see more of before Bowe goes from "efficiently producing" to "big-time production."

The first thing we need to see is more of Bowe in the slot running slant routes. The man is just about impossible to stop in those quick slants. He made Darrelle Revis (one of the best cover corners in the game) look foolish more than once just by basically being more of a man than Revis is. It also seems (though this is mere speculation on my part) that having Bowe run physical routes where he has to battle keeps him engaged and focused.

The second thing we need isn't on Bowe, it's on Smith. We need more throws like these.

 

 

What do all three of those throws have in common?

It's pretty simple. In each of those plays, Bowe has a defender right on him (or, in the case of the first picture, holding the living crap out of him) and Alex Smith makes the throw anyway.

One constant (and in my opinion, perfectly legitimate) complaint people have had about the Smith / Bowe pairing is that the pair's style of play don't complement each other. Smith is renowned (or vilified, whatever way you slice it) for always taking the safe throw. He's not a guy who is going to throw it up to a receiver unless there's good separation. Bowe, for his part, is not now and never has been a player who gets a great deal of separation from defenders. He outmuscles them for the ball with his superior strength.

Of all the complaints about Smith, this one resonates the most with me. As I've said in past columns, the safest throw is not always the best throw. And if you're waiting for Bowe to get enough separation for it to be a "safe" throw, you're going to be waiting a long time.

But what if that's changing? The three above screenshots came from the last two games. Is there any shot that Bowe is slowly (SO. SLOWLY.) turning into Smith's go-to guy?

I don't know, but I know that when the Chiefs desperately needed yards against San Diego, Smith went to Bowe several times (as well as Travis Kelce, who should absolutely be a go-to guy). The same thing happened in the drive to end the 1st half against the Rams (remember when that game was close? Good times...).

I usually like to answer questions when I write an article, but this one leaves me with more questions than anything else. I do believe that the answer to those questions regarding Smith and Bowe will be one of the biggest factors in whether the Chiefs make it to the postseason, and how far they go once they get there.

In the meantime, let's enjoy what's already happening; the new, uber-efficient Dwayne Bowe. Coming to a secondary near you.

 

 

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2014/10/28/7079857/dwayne-bowe-fantasy-stats-efficient-kansas-city-chiefs

[eraser 722]

Bowe is currently the best WR on the field for KC. Until they develop or bring in another WR, I don't see Bowe going anywhere. I thought Hemingway would get better, but he is hardly in the same category as Bowe. Despite his drops, Bowe has been the most consistent WR in KC for many yearsl

[West 6,713]

-the author lost me at " lets not talk about the money..."

 

Bowe better step up his game if he wants the Chiefs to honor that deal next season.

 

w

[artsy 1,137]

-the author lost me at " lets not talk about the money..."

 

Bowe better step up his game if he wants the Chiefs to honor that deal next season.

 

w

 

I don't think they should honor his deal. However, in Bowe's defense, he can't get the numbers if AS11 dosesn't throw him the ball more.

We all know that Bowe is not a speedster, that can get separation on a fly route, but he is showing that he can run good routes at times. Hell Larry Fitz is not as fast as he used to be, but he is still effective.

 

Bowes size and half decent route running is par for Andy Reids dink and donk offense right now. I expect to see the passing game open up a little when Avery returns. It's pretty clear that Reid doesn't trust AJJ to be the man on the deep routes, so I guess we'll have to wait for Avery to get back.

[West 6,713]

I like D Bowe, but he needs to be a better WR for KC. 

 

He is getting paid an awful lot of money for what he brings to the table.

 

While Bowe makes the tough catch in traffic, He has also  had a couple of key drops  during some very key drives. 

The fact he got suspended bothers me a bit, as we needed him for that game.  I sure wish KC was sitting at 5-2 right now.....

 

I would rank Charles, Kelce, Davis ahead of him right now as playmakers.  I would add that DT is gaining ground on him as well.

 

w

[kccrow 529]

Let's get this straight.

 

1. Bowe can't get open.

2. Bowe drops a pass every other game on average.

3. Quarterbacks have to take interception risks to get the ball to Bowe.

4. Bowe catches the ball about 55-60% of the time he's targeted, depending on which source you use for targets. He routinely doesn't place in the top 100 players and likely not the top 50 receivers (I'd have to do some research, but the eyeball test on the numbers quick makes it look like I'm right)

5. Bowe turns a target into a TD about 5% of the time, and a catch into a TD about 10% of the time, overall. Unless you take out 2010. Those numbers drop to just under 4% and just under 7% if you do.

6. Bowe is currently tied for 68th in the league in receptions, he was 47th last year.

7. Bowe has the 4th highest base salary of all receivers in the league, and the 5th highest cap hit.

 

Catch rates are tracked here: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/receiving-catch-rate

 

Bowe isn't normally amongst the better receivers. No matter how you slice it, Bowe is nowhere near worth his salary. His production says he should be making in the $2-3 million per year range. For perspective, Donnie Avery has the 42nd highest cap hit of all wide receivers in the league at 2.85 million per year. Bowe is at that tier in production.

 

All the slobbering over Bowe is ridiculous. He's a bottom rung #2 from a production standpoint, especially of late. Only reason I don't knock him as a bottom rung is he has a QB that's scared of throwing into tight windows and he's a solid blocker. Either way, Bowe is best suited as a #2 at a significant salary reduction. I don't see the latter being an option. Cut his ass after the season and get some quality players in here at the position.

[artsy 1,137]

Let's get this straight.

 

1. Bowe can't get open.

2. Bowe drops a pass every other game on average.

3. Quarterbacks have to take interception risks to get the ball to Bowe.

4. Bowe catches the ball about 55-60% of the time he's targeted, depending on which source you use for targets. He routinely doesn't place in the top 100 players and likely not the top 50 receivers (I'd have to do some research, but the eyeball test on the numbers quick makes it look like I'm right)

5. Bowe turns a target into a TD about 5% of the time, and a catch into a TD about 10% of the time, overall. Unless you take out 2010. Those numbers drop to just under 4% and just under 7% if you do.

6. Bowe is currently tied for 68th in the league in receptions, he was 47th last year.

7. Bowe has the 4th highest base salary of all receivers in the league, and the 5th highest cap hit.

 

Catch rates are tracked here: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/receiving-catch-rate

 

Bowe isn't normally amongst the better receivers. No matter how you slice it, Bowe is nowhere near worth his salary. His production says he should be making in the $2-3 million per year range. For perspective, Donnie Avery has the 42nd highest cap hit of all wide receivers in the league at 2.85 million per year. Bowe is at that tier in production.

 

All the slobbering over Bowe is ridiculous. He's a bottom rung #2 from a production standpoint, especially of late. Only reason I don't knock him as a bottom rung is he has a QB that's scared of throwing into tight windows and he's a solid blocker. Either way, Bowe is best suited as a #2 at a significant salary reduction. I don't see the latter being an option. Cut his ass after the season and get some quality players in here at the position.

Ding! ding! We have a winner!

[KCSLC2008 605]

Let's get this straight.

 

1. Bowe can't get open.

2. Bowe drops a pass every other game on average.

3. Quarterbacks have to take interception risks to get the ball to Bowe.

4. Bowe catches the ball about 55-60% of the time he's targeted, depending on which source you use for targets. He routinely doesn't place in the top 100 players and likely not the top 50 receivers (I'd have to do some research, but the eyeball test on the numbers quick makes it look like I'm right)

5. Bowe turns a target into a TD about 5% of the time, and a catch into a TD about 10% of the time, overall. Unless you take out 2010. Those numbers drop to just under 4% and just under 7% if you do.

6. Bowe is currently tied for 68th in the league in receptions, he was 47th last year.

7. Bowe has the 4th highest base salary of all receivers in the league, and the 5th highest cap hit.

 

Catch rates are tracked here: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/receiving-catch-rate

 

Bowe isn't normally amongst the better receivers. No matter how you slice it, Bowe is nowhere near worth his salary. His production says he should be making in the $2-3 million per year range. For perspective, Donnie Avery has the 42nd highest cap hit of all wide receivers in the league at 2.85 million per year. Bowe is at that tier in production.

 

All the slobbering over Bowe is ridiculous. He's a bottom rung #2 from a production standpoint, especially of late. Only reason I don't knock him as a bottom rung is he has a QB that's scared of throwing into tight windows and he's a solid blocker. Either way, Bowe is best suited as a #2 at a significant salary reduction. I don't see the latter being an option. Cut his ass after the season and get some quality players in here at the position.

Stop showing us up, Crow. Just stop.

[mongo 92]

Bowe drops passes, as do many.  He doesn't get open enough for Alex Smith to risk throwing the ball.  I've always maintained he is a terrific WR2.  His level of pay is way out of whack with his level of production.  

 

They may keep him one more year by converting some 2015 salary to a bonus.  That seals his fate in 2016.  I doubt it happens.  He's gone without a pay cut.  

 

Ah, if Bubbles could hear me now.  

[artsy 1,137]

Speaking of Bubbles.....I haven't heard from him since we released his favorite chief..Matt Cassel.

[kccrow 529]

Stop showing us up, Crow. Just stop.

 

 

LOL... just calling it how I see it my friend.   Perspective is a bitch for some but the stats clearly show he isn't worth the money he gets, especially in this offense. That's being as completely unbiased as possible with the stats available. I seriously hate fluff articles that fail to also address the "other" side of the story. While he's been efficient this season, it doesn't mean he's historically been efficient, nor does it mean his production and salary meet. The latter usually doesn't end well for the player if production is below pay scale, regardless of what other options the team may or may not have. If I've learned anything from Bill Belichek over the years, it is cut the dead weight before it becomes dead weight. As soon as you start to see a rate of production that doesn't match cost, you get rid of the guy. It's business 101 in the NFL, really. A lesson not always well learned by the Chiefs in the past.

[Chiefsbro 10]

How is he not worth the money he gets?  Bowe has survived 3 head coaches, 4 offensive coordinators, and in 6 years he has held down the starting spot.  He doesn't miss games, is durable and when he does miss a game the Chiefs loose.  Say what you want about him, but dude is a stud.  He will have to take a pay cut, but he isn't garbage.  I hope he stays with Kansas City, but if he doesn't  I hope the guy that takes his spot can stay on the field and hold his starting spot for as many years a Dwayne.  Plus if he does leave K.C., you know he will shine (especially if he goes to a playoff contender).

[kccrow 529]

How is he not worth the money he gets?  Bowe has survived 3 head coaches, 4 offensive coordinators, and in 6 years he has held down the starting spot.  He doesn't miss games, is durable and when he does miss a game the Chiefs loose.  Say what you want about him, but dude is a stud.  He will have to take a pay cut, but he isn't garbage.  I hope he stays with Kansas City, but if he doesn't  I hope the guy that takes his spot can stay on the field and hold his starting spot for as many years a Dwayne.  Plus if he does leave K.C., you know he will shine (especially if he goes to a playoff contender)

 

Not only is he not worth the money he gets, he's not even in the same stratosphere of production for the money he gets. Be blind to the statistical evidence that backs it up if you'd like. The Chiefs need space for guys like Justin Houston that actually produce on the field relative to or exceeding salary.

[SEMO 6,811]

Not only is he not worth the money he gets, he's not even in the same stratosphere of production for the money he gets. Be blind to the statistical evidence that backs it up if you'd like. The Chiefs need space for guys like Justin Houston that actually produce on the field relative to or exceeding salary.

Horseshit, Crow. Look at the QBs the guy has had throwing to him over his career. It's not all on him.

 

Chiefsbro is right. Put Bowe on a team like the Broncos or Saints and he is a star.

[kccrow 529]

Horseshit, Crow. Look at the QBs the guy has had throwing to him over his career. It's not all on him.

 

Chiefsbro is right. Put Bowe on a team like the Broncos or Saints and he is a star.

 

I'm not going to make excuses for the guy. Many receivers produce consistently regardless of the QB. Bowe is what he is. He'd be best suited as a team's #2 receiver behind a true #1. Problem is, Bowe makes ELITE receiver money and is nowhere in the ballpark. It's so far from close it isn't worth arguing the point to me any further. If you guys are content with Bowe and at the salary he commands, hey that's your choice and I respectfully disagree with it.

[SEMO 6,811]

I'm not going to make excuses for the guy. Many receivers produce consistently regardless of the QB. Bowe is what he is. He'd be best suited as a team's #2 receiver behind a true #1. Problem is, Bowe makes ELITE receiver money and is nowhere in the ballpark. It's so far from close it isn't worth arguing the point to me any further. If you guys are content with Bowe and at the salary he commands, hey that's your choice and I respectfully disagree with it.

Fair enough.

 

No one is saying he is a 1. But, it's not his fault someone decided to pay him like one. What's he supposed to do? "Nah, man. I can't take that much of your money. I suck. Pay me like a 2."

[kccrow 529]

Fair enough.

 

No one is saying he is a 1. But, it's not his fault someone decided to pay him like one. What's he supposed to do? "Nah, man. I can't take that much of your money. I suck. Pay me like a 2."

 

lol, touche'

 

When I look at a player that doesn't produce to his salary, and there are players you have to pay that far exceed their current salaries, then the logical thing to me is to cut the guy that isn't producing. Bowe, sadly, is one of those guys.

 

The problem with Bowe heading into 2015 is that if you keep him, he's going to be a $14 million hit. If you cut him prior to June 1, then you are going to save $5 million. If you can wait to cut him until after June 1 though, he'd save you $9.5 million this year but be dead money on the books in 2016 for $4.5 million.  You aren't saving a "boat load" but you are saving a pretty significant amount. If you replace Bowe's production at the salary level for that production, you'll spend about $2.5 million and if you draft a number 1, you will probably spend less than 4 million (Fisher made 4 million his rookie year and he was the #1 pick). You gain some ground on the cap this way because you can use the $2.5 million Bowe "really" saves you against the rookie you desperately need.

 

Cecil Shorts and Denarius Moore, both having down seasons so far, have both put up numbers similar to what Bowe has put up the last couple years and will be free agents going into 2015. I like Shorts, and I think he'll want out of a bad situation in Jacksonville.

 

I think there is one thing that we can all agree upon, and that is the fact that KC desperately needs to revamp its receiving corps in the offseason. Hammond and Hemingway are free agents, and I think KC should let them go. I think Bowe should be cut. That leaves you with Donnie Avery, DeAnthony Thomas, and Albert Wilson, all slot guys. If I'm KC I go draft me a #1 in round one and I go up to get him if I have to. I think the guy to go up and get is DeVante Parker out of Louisville. Then, I think you spend a couple later picks (round 5/6) on some guys that have shown promise but are having bad years. Specifically I like Rannell Hall out of Central Florida, who also happens to be a really good kick returner. I also like Tre McBride out of William & Mary. There are some other guys, I like very early like Stefon Diggs and Justin Hardy, but guys like Parker can be huge difference makers. I'd then go out and get a guy like Shorts that can be a solid #2 in FA. I want to see better. I'd much rather see Parker/Shorts/Avery/Wilson/Hall/DAT/McBride than the current stable of shit. The key is seeing what free agency brings to the table and then making the decision on Bowe accordingly.

[eraser 722]

Bowe is 100% gone on most any team. The one thing that holds me from saying this for the Chiefs is they don't have anyone else. This is evident by the fact they could have dropped him at the beginning of the year due to his indiscretions. Still, they did not release him, and that is directly attributable to the fact he is all the Chiefs have. 

 

No WR is going to excel in Andy Reid's offense. Yet Avery is their second best WR, and Avery was cut by the Colts despite having a career year. That tells me the Chiefs do not have the talent they need at WR. 

 

Unless the Chiefs suddenly develop some talent, they may become even more desperate for a #1 WR. 

[mongo 92]

I really like Rashad Greene FSU and Sammy Coates (Auburn).  I want to see Kevin White from WVU

[West 6,713]

We may not be drafting in the top 20 next April.

 

w

[kcchief4lif 910]

We may not be drafting in the top 20 next April.

 

w

Terrible position to be in, year in and out.

[kccrow 529]

Fortunately for KC, this year's draft is just as loaded at WR as last years.

[mongo 92]

Fortunately for KC, this year's draft is just as loaded at WR as last years.

It's starting to look that way, isn't it?  The Chiefs may not even have to commit an R1 to it and still get a gem or two.  

[mongo 92]

We may not be drafting in the top 20 next April.

 

w

Yeah, they might be 21-24, again.  Relax.  Just razzin

[West 6,713]

I think you have to say KC got the better of the Baldwin - Jenkins deal.

 

That said, Avery can't get back soon enough.

 

w