Jump to content

Strength of schedule

mex
 Share

Recommended Posts

mex

mex 65,581

Posted
Posted

Holy shit they hammered us. Expected, but damn.

Half our schedule is playoff teams... not counting Detroit and NYJ who will likely be playoff teams this year.  Thank goodness half of those are at Arrowhead.

As I look at the AFC contenders' schedules, seems like Jax has the biggest advantage of all.

I could honestly see them taking the #1 seed, the way they have their toughest games arranged. I mean, they get the Chiefs at home early... two of their away games (including buffalo) are in England which neutralizes their opponents' HFA, and they get the niners, their toughest NFC challenge, at home after the bye. 

The question will be can they win that first divisional round game to force the game out of KC. It's like the league is getting tired of going to KC for the AFCCG... :lol: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
jetlord

jetlord 10,209

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mex said:

Holy shit they hammered us. Expected, but damn.

Half our schedule is playoff teams... not counting Detroit and NYJ who will likely be playoff teams this year.  Thank goodness half of those are at Arrowhead.

As I look at the AFC contenders' schedules, seems like Jax has the biggest advantage of all.

I could honestly see them taking the #1 seed, the way they have their toughest games arranged. I mean, they get the Chiefs at home early... two of their away games (including buffalo) are in England which neutralizes their opponents' HFA, and they get the niners, their toughest NFC challenge, at home after the bye. 

The question will be can they win that first divisional round game to force the game out of KC. It's like the league is getting tired of going to KC for the AFCCG... :lol: 

Mahomes is doomed.  Six years in the league and he's never won an away playoff game except for SBs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
 
 
kkuenn

kkuenn 3,597

Posted
Posted
Just now, Thegoatee said:

To me, I think the schedule is backloaded vs the front loaded schedule we seem to have had the last couple of years. 8-1 or 7-2 heading into the bye seems very possible.

Yep and the best part of this is allowing the younger players to get better and play better as they come along. Also the fact the depth is there is a plus in keeping players fresh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
kkuenn

kkuenn 3,597

Posted
Posted

Found this part interesting in the linked article at the end. They don't just take the win losses for sos but incorporate the expected win total from vegas.

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2023 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2023 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.

How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?

Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

  • of the 10 teams predicted to have the hardest 2022 schedules, only 2 went to the playoffs (Bengals, Chiefs)
  • of the 7 teams forecast to have losing records but predicted to have easier than average schedules, 5 went over their win total (Giants, Lions, Commanders, Jaguars, Panthers)
  • of the 9 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, Vikings)

Are Strength of Schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

  • of the 7 teams that actually had the easiest 2022 schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars, Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs)
  • of the 7 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, 2 went to the playoffs (Dolphins, Bengals)
  • of the 11 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, only 3 went over their win total (Bengals, Steelers, Jets)

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2023-nfl-strength-of-schedule/

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
mex

mex 65,581

Posted
  • Author
Posted
18 hours ago, kkuenn said:

Based off wins and losses from 2022 the Chiefs have the 16th rated sos.

16. Chiefs — 147-140 (.512)

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football-rankings/nfl-strength-of-schedule-rankings-2023

Sounds like a lot but that's a factor of the AFC west though. The Chiefs schedule picks up 60 losses just in division. The reason our division has so many losses is because the Chiefs are in it and accounted for 12 of those losses.

I mean, there ain't but one 'cupcake' on the schedule really... and that's the Bears. Maybe NE... maybe GB.

Even though the afc west contributes the most losses to our schedule, I wouldn't call any of those teams cupcakes... not even LV.  This ain't the afc south.

More than half our schedule is playoff-caliber teams. The jets and jags, likely detroit, LAC twice, Philly, Vikes, Buffalo, Cincy... that's a solid lineup considering the importance of head-to-head.

Jax plays in the absolute worst division, and their playoff-caliber opponents seem to align favorably with their schedule. 

I'm not seeing anyone who has it tougher as far as # of playoff caliber teams.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
 
 
dhitter

dhitter 1,424

Posted
Posted

Often times things just don't play out how one might expect. Remember all the doomsayers (a.k.a. NFL talking heads)  from last year talking about how the Chiefs were gonna struggle. No Tyreek Hill and the AFC West was going to be a bloodbath. All the others teams loaded up and the Chiefs got worse. But what actually happened? The Chiefs schedule is not bad from my perspective. Eagles, Bills and Bengals all at Arrowhead. Bye week in a good spot. I'll take that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
mex

mex 65,581

Posted
  • Author
Posted
58 minutes ago, dhitter said:

Often times things just don't play out how one might expect. Remember all the doomsayers (a.k.a. NFL talking heads)  from last year talking about how the Chiefs were gonna struggle. No Tyreek Hill and the AFC West was going to be a bloodbath. All the others teams loaded up and the Chiefs got worse. But what actually happened? The Chiefs schedule is not bad from my perspective. Eagles, Bills and Bengals all at Arrowhead. Bye week in a good spot. I'll take that.

You're right about the seasons rarely playing out as predicted... last year the pundits agreed we had a brutal schedule, until the bottom 2 teams in the AFCW took a shit. I don't think that happens two years in a row. 

Not worried about a lower seeding... regardless we still gotta beat the best to move on in the playoffs. It's just nice to have that bye week. We've needed it every one of these last 3 years... just like we needed the week off before the last SB. Saved our ass.

Would be great to continue the streak but sooner or later we're going to get beat by a conference team... putting the #1 seed at risk. Like I said, that LAC game at the end of the season could be the division championship game. If LA is healthy, it's going to be a tough venue. 

Buffalo will have a rough road in their own conference, cincy... not so much. I'd rather not face either in the playoffs outside Arrowhead. Jax seems to have things lined up nice... weak conference, favorable schedule. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
Joe_Chief

Joe_Chief 1,092

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, mex said:

You're right about the seasons rarely playing out as predicted... last year the pundits agreed we had a brutal schedule, until the bottom 2 teams in the AFCW took a shit. I don't think that happens two years in a row. 

Not worried about a lower seeding... regardless we still gotta beat the best to move on in the playoffs. It's just nice to have that bye week. We've needed it every one of these last 3 years... just like we needed the week off before the last SB. Saved our ass.

Would be great to continue the streak but sooner or later we're going to get beat by a conference team... putting the #1 seed at risk. Like I said, that LAC game at the end of the season could be the division championship game. If LA is healthy, it's going to be a tough venue. 

Buffalo will have a rough road in their own conference, cincy... not so much. I'd rather not face either in the playoffs outside Arrowhead. Jax seems to have things lined up nice... weak conference, favorable schedule. 

Cowherd has Jax winning the #1 slot

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
 
 
xen

xen 1,010,220

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mex said:

Cowherd is a Chiefs guy... he loves Mahomes.

Yep.  I do understand his reasoning but he needs to understand that it doesn't matter.  The conference runs through Arrowhead until further notice.

Jax does have a super soft schedule though, so I also expect them to make a jump now in year 2 of the Dougie P experience.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
mex

mex 65,581

Posted
  • Author
Posted
27 minutes ago, xen said:

Jax does have a super soft schedule though, so I also expect them to make a jump now in year 2 of the Dougie P experience.

The whole point of my post... they'll be better this year. 

PS not that we NEED to have HFA to advance in the playoffs. It's just been nice having that bye.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
SEMO

SEMO 6,811

Posted
Posted

There is no "brutal" schedule, as long as we have Pat.  We are the favored ones.  It is other teams that circle their meeting with us on the schedule.  Not the other way around.

If everyone is healthy, then the league is ours to retain.  If not, then next man up, and Veach always has provided the player depth to step in.  And, we still win.

Let the pundits short change us again this year, just because we "didn't do enough in free agency, or the draft." *yawn*

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
 
 
 
 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
  • Create New...