Chris Jones merged thread

[oldtimer 8,686]

 

[mex 65,581]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

 

YOU POSTED A TWITTER TWEET?!?! 😘

[xen 1,010,220]

Franchise tag for CJ next year would be over 32m.  Woof

Better figure it out this year

 

[SEMO 6,811]

2 hours ago, mex said:

YOU POSTED A TWITTER TWEET?!?! 😘

[kccrow 529]

9 hours ago, xen said:

AAV doesn't mean shit, structure and guaranteed $ is everything.  If he just wants to push the AAV you could easily do a contract woth 30m AAV but in actuality somewhere around 26 with money he'd actually earn.  Don't get hung up on the AAV.

While this is true to some extent, AAV remains relevant at the end of the day. Most players don't take a heap in the final contract year to make a 30 mil AAV look like a 26 AAV contract in the front. 

[xen 1,010,220]

14 minutes ago, kccrow said:

While this is true to some extent, AAV remains relevant at the end of the day. Most players don't take a heap in the final contract year to make a 30 mil AAV look like a 26 AAV contract in the front. 

How many times do fans need to jump to conclusions about reported numbers on a contract only for the details to come out and realize it's an illusion?  It's all about structure and guaranteed money.  Everything else is so your agent can pick up more clients and players can say they pushed the envelope.  There are a lot of fake contracts in the NFL where the player will only see a portion of the contract.

[kkuenn 3,597]

9 hours ago, mex said:

YOU POSTED A TWITTER TWEET?!?! 😘

It's called an X you boomer

 

[qnet 1,150]

12 hours ago, xen said:

How many times do fans need to jump to conclusions about reported numbers on a contract only for the details to come out and realize it's an illusion?  It's all about structure and guaranteed money.  Everything else is so your agent can pick up more clients and players can say they pushed the envelope.  There are a lot of fake contracts in the NFL where the player will only see a portion of the contract.

I don't know a lot about the contract stuff, and get what you're saying. What concerns me about this is, he got a lot of guaranteed money the last time from my understanding. I read somewhere that it was $60 million. 

I know this is me being a fan, but that's a lot of money. 

[xen 1,010,220]

2 minutes ago, qnet said:

I don't know a lot about the contract stuff, and get what you're saying. What concerns me about this is, he got a lot of guaranteed money the last time from my understanding. I read somewhere that it was $60 million. 

I know this is me being a fan, but that's a lot of money. 

Well look, if a guy is able to play out a contract and not a ton of it is in NLTBE incentives, then sure, it all becomes real.  However you can lock money away easily to make a guy cutable amd protect the team. 

Sometimes even guarantees arent guaranteed.  For instance, look at Mahomes' contract.  So much of it is in roster bonuses.  Not that he's cutable as long as he can play, but if you put in decision dates tied to large bonuses you can get out of the contract easily in later years if something happens. 

[Thegoatee 1,780]

I’d give him like 3 years, $85 million. Will he still be getting 10+ sacks as he gets to his mid 30s?

[gochiefsgo 380]

I see that the trend for nfl salary cap increases might occur every other year? 
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cba/

You have to think if they know it is, couldn’t this help the negotiations by front loading the contract restructure especially for next year? 

And for this year it’s They have a total of just over $7.7 million in dead cap space for the 2023 NFL season thus far

Chiefs dead cap will be gone next year I think? 
 

Deal should get done if these are not issues anymore, right? 

[xen 1,010,220]

1 hour ago, gochiefsgo said:

I see that the trend for nfl salary cap increases might occur every other year? 
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cba/

You have to think if they know it is, couldn’t this help the negotiations by front loading the contract restructure especially for next year? 

And for this year it’s They have a total of just over $7.7 million in dead cap space for the 2023 NFL season thus far

Chiefs dead cap will be gone next year I think? 
 

Deal should get done if these are not issues anymore, right? 

Yeah just very little dead cap for next year. 

As gambling money and new television contracts kick in we will likely see some larger increases through the 2020's in the cap.  Last new tv contracts it took a few years to really jump the cap.  No idea how those contracts work but total was something over 100 billion thru 10 years.  Kicks in this year I believe.

[kccrow 529]

On 7/25/2023 at 6:32 PM, xen said:

How many times do fans need to jump to conclusions about reported numbers on a contract only for the details to come out and realize it's an illusion?  It's all about structure and guaranteed money.  Everything else is so your agent can pick up more clients and players can say they pushed the envelope.  There are a lot of fake contracts in the NFL where the player will only see a portion of the contract.

Speaking at the guy that's looked at more NFL contract data than he cares to remember. There's some truth to this, as I said, but you're very much generalizing the entire picture. Guaranteed money is the absolute biggest factor in negotiations but structure largely is determined by guarantees and total contract value (and thus the talks about AAV) and not the other way around. The structures of the overall contracts aren't enormously variable and full of surprises. As I said, players don't go for a ton of backloading anymore but they will often agree to a low year 1 salary and a more equalized spread to the end. The ones that do surprise are more along the lines of what Philly did with Hurts, which is a total fuckery. 

[dhitter 1,424]

We know that Veach and the Chiefs aren't going to overpay. They didn't give in to Hill or to Orlando Brown. I think they are agreeable to paying Jones as the 2nd highest DT in the league. Unfortunately the gap between Donald and the current #2 is massive. Chiefs are basically facing three options:

1. Overpay Jones 2. Do nothing and let him walk as a FA at the end of the season. 3. Trade and get value now. 

Personally, I don't like any of those options. But #2 simply cannot happen under any circumstance.

[qnet 1,150]

They speculated on Petro's podcast that had they known what Jones wanted, he should have been traded before the draft.

Jeff Chadiha thinks CJ may have fooled the Chiefs (into thinking he might do a hometown discount) with the way he talked during the offseason.

Everyone agreed that they're now stuck, and not in the best situation. I would love for him to stay but, at this point I'm just glad we got two SB wins out of him.

[oldtimer 8,686]

53 minutes ago, qnet said:

They speculated on Petro's podcast that had they known what Jones wanted, he should have been traded before the draft.

Jeff Chadiha thinks CJ may have fooled the Chiefs (into thinking he might do a hometown discount) with the way he talked during the offseason.

Everyone agreed that they're now stuck, and not in the best situation. I would love for him to stay but, at this point I'm just glad we got two SB wins out of him.

I used to listen to Petro all the the time before his time slot got changed and I always like hearing what Chadiha has to say. His opinion carries water in my book. I certainly hope CJ wasn't playing dirty Pool. 

That being said this all could be a stalling game for CJ to miss Training camp in this heat so until he starts missing Regular Season games I'm not overly worried. He's giving others much needed reps but I dont think he is doing himself any favors in regards to fan base love OR more importantly just getting in game shape.

My Super Bowl hopes for this year goes waaaaay down if this ends up badly in a trade

[reesebobby 5,661]

3 hours ago, dhitter said:

We know that Veach and the Chiefs aren't going to overpay. They didn't give in to Hill or to Orlando Brown. I think they are agreeable to paying Jones as the 2nd highest DT in the league. Unfortunately the gap between Donald and the current #2 is massive. Chiefs are basically facing three options:

1. Overpay Jones 2. Do nothing and let him walk as a FA at the end of the season. 3. Trade and get value now. 

Personally, I don't like any of those options. But #2 simply cannot happen under any circumstance.

Can they tag him?  I know they did in 2020. 

[Okiechief1 425]

25 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I used to listen to Petro all the the time before his time slot got changed and I always like hearing what Chadiha has to say. His opinion carries water in my book. I certainly hope CJ wasn't playing dirty Pool. 

That being said this all could be a stalling game for CJ to miss Training camp in this heat so until he starts missing Regular Season games I'm not overly worried. He's giving others much needed reps but I dont think he is doing himself any favors in regards to fan base love OR more importantly just getting in game shape.

My Super Bowl hopes for this year goes waaaaay down if this ends up badly in a trade

After the draft their were rumors that KC tried to trade up to get the DT from Michigan Mazi Smith.  Who knows if that is true. and was it just too beef up the line and have sombody along side or if they had an idea of what CJ wanted and the idea was to have the rook play along side CJ then tag n trade after the season which is still an option.  

I still believe he will be there by opening night cause he has nothing to really gain by sitting out.  

[arrowhead 1,070]

39 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

Can they tag him?  I know they did in 2020. 

His 2024 tag would cost somewhere around 32.5 mil. That won't happen.

[dhitter 1,424]

1 hour ago, reesebobby said:

Can they tag him?  I know they did in 2020. 

I've heard different reports. But the bottom line is the tag would run anywhere from 32.5 up to 35 million depending on who you listen to. So I don't think that's an option really.

[Okiechief1 425]

3 hours ago, arrowhead said:

His 2024 tag would cost somewhere around 32.5 mil. That won't happen.

Even if they plan on trading him?  

[arrowhead 1,070]

39 minutes ago, Okiechief1 said:

Even if they plan on trading him?  

Yes. Tag and trade. The new team would have to deal with his new contract.

[timmy_6262 77]

5 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I used to listen to Petro all the the time before his time slot got changed and I always like hearing what Chadiha has to say. His opinion carries water in my book. I certainly hope CJ wasn't playing dirty Pool. 

That being said this all could be a stalling game for CJ to miss Training camp in this heat so until he starts missing Regular Season games I'm not overly worried. He's giving others much needed reps but I dont think he is doing himself any favors in regards to fan base love OR more importantly just getting in game shape.

My Super Bowl hopes for this year goes waaaaay down if this ends up badly in a trade

I don't think its a stalling game to beat the heat he could easily do the "my _____(hammy, knee, shoulder, etc etc) hurts, I can't practice" excuse and not lose 50k a practice. Either or he's not there and that's his choice.

[kccrow 529]

6 hours ago, dhitter said:

I've heard different reports. But the bottom line is the tag would run anywhere from 32.5 up to 35 million depending on who you listen to. So I don't think that's an option really.

Not going to be that high. It was 18.9 m this offseason and is projected at around 20.9 next offseason. 

It's the only real option if they don't reach an extension now. 

[kccrow 529]

So here is the basic rundown of the recent upper-echelon DT contracts...
(read them as years/contract avlue with guaranteed at signing, signing bonus, and the annual proration)
Williams 4/96 66g 47.8gas 24.5sb, ann: 6.5, 20.4, 21.6, 26.7, 30.4
Simmons 4/94 66g 47.8gas 24.0sb ann: 6.4, 21.8, 22.8, 25.5, 28.3
Payne 4/90 59.3g 46.0gas 28.0sb ann: 8.6, 21.6, 26.2, 28.0, 5.6v
Lawrence 4/90 60g 46.5gas 22.0sb ann: 6.7, 21.9, 21.4, 24.4, 26.4

Extrapolating to a contract near what Jones want, say 29.0 AAV, leaves you with an approximation of 4/116 79.8g 59.2gas 30.0sb ann: 7.9, 26.9, 28.1, 31.5, 34.9.
Now, that proration doesn't account for the 19.5m he has as this year's salary, the already on-the-books bonus proration of 7.0m and his other bonus money (1.75), it's just leveling the 116 per a similar structure to Simmons.

If we guesstimate the Chiefs would take something like 18m of his current salary and put it into option bonuses in 2024 and 2025 (they'd need to be guaranteeing his salaries in those years anyhow to reach the guaranteed money total), which would be prorated over the next 5 years or remaining life of the contract, his actual annual rations look more like 16.3, 29.4, 33.1, 36.5, 39.9.

A breakdown would be:

2023: 1.50 base (guaranteed), 13.0m sb proration, 1.75 other bonus = 16.3m
2024: 20.90 base (guaranteed), 6.0m sb proration, 2.5m opt proration = 29.4m
2025: 22.10 base (guaranteed, 6.0m sb proration, 5.0m opt proration = 33.1m
2026: 25.50 base, 6.0m sb proration, 5.0m opt proration = 36.5m
2027: 28.90 base, 6.0m sb proration, 5.0m opt proration = 39.9m

That would leave Clark with cash outlays of:

2023: 33.25m
2024: 30.90m
2025: 29.60m
2026: 25.50m
2027: 28.90m

Given that, he could conceivably do less money on the first option bonus and more on the second to spread a bit more cash to later but it's not that much of a difference.

So, all-in-all, that's what I'd see as a "likely" scenario.

The Chiefs could "surprise" and roll out a Mahomes-esque special with roster bonuses spread throughout to kick some cans but I'd be doubtful.A

And that's probably too much cap thinkology to matter.