Why Bengals' Andy Dalton’s contract means nothing for KC

[xen 1,010,219]

Another quarterback somewhere between average and Aaron Rodgers has another new contract, and the initial takeaway from some is that Alex Smith must be next.

 

Don’t fall for it.

 

The Bengals have Andy Dalton for up to six years, and even if there are differences to be worked out — Smith is better, Dalton younger — the immediate reaction by a lot of Chiefs fans is that a new contract for Smith just got a lot easier.

 

Don’t believe it.

 

As it happened, the news of Dalton’s deal broke shortly before Smith’s previously scheduled talk with reporters here Monday afternoon.

 

“To be honest I had no idea they were even talking or that was happening,” he said. “I just found out walking off the field, just to give me a heads up because I’d probably be asked about it. But I don’t know anything about it. I’m focused on camp.”

 

That’s more than the easy thing to say for Smith. It’s also symbolic for how much Dalton’s deal means for his:

 

Basically, bupkis.

 

Tom Condon, Smith’s agent, has a mutual respect with Chiefs general manager John Dorsey but didn’t earn his reputation as one of the NFL’s top agents by letting his clients go for cheap. Dorsey already invested two second-round picks to trade for Smith, but the Chiefs are short on cap room and Dorsey has a reputation for not budging off what he believes is fair value.

 

If anything, Dalton’s deal will end up being an obstacle in Smith’s negotiations if the Chiefs try to use it as framework.

 

As with all NFL contracts, the important stuff is in the details, particularly the guarantees and out clauses. Dalton’s deal was initially reported as six years and $115 million, but realistically is two years and $25 million guaranteed with a series of one-year deals and bonuses after that.

 

Colin Kaepernick’s deal with the 49ers is another you might expect to be used in Smith’s negotiations. Kaepernick’s contract is particularly complicated, initially reported as up to $126 million and $61 million guaranteed. In real terms, he’s getting $28 million over the next two years and then it’s year-to-year.

 

You can debate the merits of each deal, but neither is likely to be used as a framework in Smith’s actual negotiations.

 

Dalton and Kaepernick were both playing on rookie contracts, for starters, with scheduled salaries less than $1 million this season. Smith comes into negotiations having already made more than $50 million, and guaranteed $7.5 million more this year. That’s a very different starting point.

 

This works on a few levels. Dalton and Kaepernick are getting life-changing money after making — relative to NFL quarterbacks — peanuts. Smith already has life-changing money, and by all indications has been responsible with it. So he doesn’t need the quick payday. Also, he values stability more than a guy coming off his rookie deal and isn’t likely to go for what is realistically only a two-year guarantee.

 

Those are both critical points, from Smith’s side.

 

You can expect Smith to want a deal more in line with Jay Cutler, Tony Romo and Matthew Stafford.

 

Cutler signed for $54 million guaranteed. Romo got $55 million guaranteed. Those are the last two veteran quarterbacks to sign extensions. We include Stafford in here for two reasons. Like Romo, his contract was done by CAA, which is Condon’s agency. And while Stafford was coming off his rookie contract, he was in the old system, which gave top picks far more money. Stafford signed for $41.5 million guaranteed in his contract extension.

 

The player is always the one who controls the negotiations, and Smith has indicated he’ll pick a date (almost certainly before the regular season starts) to stop talking contract and focus entirely on football.

 

And if you look at Condon’s history, his clients haven’t always signed in this situation. Two years ago, Drew Brees signed a $60 million guarantee after playing the previous season under the franchise tag. Condon’s negotiations with the Saints went heavy enough that Brees missed OTAs and threatened to hold out.

 

Smith isn’t as good as Brees, obviously, but the precedent means this isn’t a negotiation where the Chiefs know the other side will sign.

 

And as former agent and salary cap specialist Joel Corry points out, if you’re into precedents, the only big-money contract extension the Chiefs have done since Dorsey took over is a $26 million guarantee for Dwayne Bowe that was generally seen around the league as player-friendly even before the receiver underperformed last year.

 

On top of everything else, this is just one more reason that a negotiation initially viewed by many as friendly and mutually beneficial does not appear to have progressed further.

 

For the Chiefs, they have to weigh the benefit of signing a good (but not great) quarterback long-term against the risk of perhaps overpaying and missing the chance to develop their own.

 

For Smith, he must decide the draw of the stability he’s always sought and the value of playing for this team and coach against his perception of his value and the realization that this might be his last major contract.

 

There’s a lot to sift through, on both sides, which is why this eight-figure game of chicken continues into the week of the first preseason game.

 

No matter anything else, though, know this: the negotiation probably isn’t going anywhere if Dalton’s contract is seen as the framework for Smith.

[KCSLC2008 605]

Better thread for the following than what I previously chose:

 

I think I know everyone's stance and anyone who knew me before the closing of the old CC board knows mine. But I think no matter what I think, my conclusion is the same as those that don't believe in Alex: wait until after the season.

 

The reasoning for me is different than, say, Mongo's or Mr. Ev, but not so much in the process (and obviously conclusion).

 

Smith EARNED what he got - to keep his starting job as the unquestioned starter and the opportunity to prove his worth this coming year. He earned 2014. Whether other QBs would earn it too or better is irrelevant to me (unless they were suddenly available). He performed as expected or better. While Murray or Bray or someone else may prove to be the future (or not), he earned the right not to be looking over his shoulder this year. Go prove it. Whether he earns that right for 2015 is yet to be seen. (Don't confuse this with the right to keep one's job if they suck it up.)

 

He is set up in the best circumstances he possibly could this year more than any other year.

 

Some people may think 2011 or 2012 was his best chance, but that's just for the team. Any potential win would be seen as Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson because he was never going to have 1542 yards in 6 games (4112 yard pace) in SF. That's not world beater by any means and pace arguments go nowhere fast because it lacks predictive context for the future, but he has an unguaranteed chance to produce some numbers in this system and a fair chance to win with his smarts and this team's talent. Yes, even with short, safe throws against questionable defenses, he wasn't going to produce in SF what he can produce here.

 

Not just quantity throws, he improved from 7 to 8 YPA in his second year with Harbaugh. Here, if he wins, it will be in a pass happy offense in the same offensive system. (Meaningless) Yards + wins? Better chance of getting what he wants: stability. (This team without SFs defense has less chance of SB than what Smith had in SF, but stability would never be his there, IMO.) He won't be HOF here or there, but he could prove many people wrong with what we have. If that warrants a long term contract is up to Dorsey, but his chance is best here. Low risk, high reward on this contract.

 

Some would say low probability, but screw that, I'm talking about potential and if he doesn't do it, it proves something. 

 

On a major contract, it's high risk and at best, on par reward. If we wait and he earns it, great, put some risk on 2015. If he does well in 2015, suddenly that roster date in April 2016 comes and passes quickly (meaning we retain him further).

 

The reason I feel this way is because I believe that Smith can and will prove himself. How much so and what he warrants, who knows, but I feel he will be given a good contract after he plays this one out. I could, of course, be wrong and that's where I differ with Mongo and Mr. Ev. One thing is for sure - If he doesn't prove it, I'm glad we saved the money - whether that be re-sign for less money or move on. If he gets injured, I'm glad we aren't just paying his insurance money so to speak.

 

I've never been against moving on from Smith if he doesn't prove it, he's the guy until he isn't. I hope that's a long time because that would mean he was doing something right (I trust Reid and Dorsey to know what they are doing). But I have been at times against those making definitive statements about his future or capabilities - though I admit that he's been playing long enough to have a sufficient amount of data to venture a good guess. There's a limit and I think it's subjective to a point and objective in some ways. We'll see and that's why we should wait. I believe in him but think we should wait.

[West 6,713]

I have been watching Alex Smith since he played for Singletary.  He has already won playoff games and he just keep getting better and better every year.  I think he is coming into his prime as an NFL QB and I hope he leads the Chiefs to the Super Bowl.

 

That said, the NFL is all about Not For Long....If there is a better option for Reid and Dorsey they should go for it!  I have not heard about it and I have not seen it appear on the Chiefs Roster yet.....but if it shows up, that would be great for all Chiefs Fans.

 

w

[KCSLC2008 605]

Looks like he's going to wait until next season, in my opinion because:

 

Smith doesn't want Dalton money, he wants security (not that it's mutually exclusive): playing this year and signing the 3 year guaranteed deal (4 including this year) than now, where this plus two years is 3 total.
 

I don't feel Dorsey is going to give him that unless he plays like he did in the second half of the season, minus the Colts' regular season but including the playoff game (translation: improved production with a hopefully healthy defense).

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/chiefs/2014/08/09/alex-smith-contract-kansas-city-andy-dalton-colin-kaepernick/13834783/