andysredflag 7 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The clearest path to the playoffs is obviously for the Chiefs to beat the Steelers and Chargers. But, in the event of a Chiefs loss, all we need this week is for the Texans to beat the Ravens as 5-point underdogs and the season remains alive. If that happens—and it could—we'll need the following in Week 17: Patriots (-9.5) over Bills Browns (+3.5) over Ravens Jaguars (+6.5) over Texans Chiefs (-3.5) over Chargers In Vegas, the above scenario would pay out 12-to-1 on a parlay ticket, so the odds are somewhat slim. But before you say "impossible," let me remind you of our 2006 Week 17 playoff scenario, when we needed the following to happen: Steelers (+6) over Bengals Patriots (+3) over Titans 49ers (+11) over Broncos Chiefs (-3) over Jaguars The odds of the Chiefs making the playoffs that year? 72 to 1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West 6,713 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Thanks, hopefully we beat the Steelers. w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artsy 1,137 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hmm, not to bad. They could lose and still have a chance. However, they can alleviate any doubt by just winning out. At some point this franchise is just gonna have to go out and straight up win games. IMO, if they can't beat Pitt and San Diego, then they don't deserve to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andysredflag 7 Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hmm, not to bad. They could lose and still have a chance. However, they can alleviate any doubt by just winning out. At some point this franchise is just gonna have to go out and straight up win games. IMO, if they can't beat Pitt and San Diego, then they don't deserve to go. This year, the Chiefs have beaten the ... Patriots (11-3) Seahawks (10-4) Bills (8-6) Chargers (8-6) Dolphins (7-7) Last year, the Chiefs beat... Texans (2-14) Redskins (3-13) Jaguars (4-12) Raiders x2 (4-12) Browns (4-12) Bills (6-10) Giants (7-9) Titans (7-9) Cowboys (8-8) Eagles (10-6) This year's Chiefs have beaten five average to above average teams through 14 games (three on the road), whereas last year's team beat only two average to above average teams, with one of those wins coming at home. Last year's Chiefs went 5-2 in coin-flip games (i.e., games requiring some luck) whereas this year's Chiefs are 3-4 in such games. Jeff Sagarin, whose computer ratings are well respected, rates last year's Chiefs the same as this year's Chiefs—despite last year's team being guaranteed a better record. Other ratings sites, such as Don Best, list this year's Chiefs as at least a field-goal favorite over last year's Chiefs. This year's team, aside from two bad losses (Titans and Raiders) has actually performed remarkably well. There is no shame in losing twice against Denver. There is also no shame in losing at San Francisco or Arizona. The Chiefs have suffered substantial injuries to key defensive players, have rotated their offensive line, have plugged in no-names at receiver, had a Pro Bowl defensive player leave with lymphoma, and yet has still found a way to not only win eight games out of 14—but to also do it impressively. The Chiefs are 9-5 against the Vegas spread, and they've covered (or won outright) SIX times as underdogs. The Chiefs went nine weeks without failing to cover the spread, which is almost unheard of in the NFL, regardless of talent. So, to say the Chiefs don't "deserve" to be in the playoffs is a little extreme, even if they only finish 9-7. In reality, this team has played perhaps the toughest schedule in the league, has overachieved by every measure, and has been well above average on both sides of the ball since Week 1. This year's team is clearly more deserving than last year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetlord 10,209 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Amazing that this year's team can stack up against last year's without Flowers, Albert, DJ, or Berry + several other starters in the O-line and not too much help via the draft. There's so many holes in this year's team, yet they managed to beat several really good teams and compete with others. Sadly, the season went down the tubes against TENN and OAK. That didn't happen last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West 6,713 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Great analysis Red Flag and Jet. I remain cautiously optimistic that we are seeing a SB contender being built over time. The Chief's ability to get & Develop young talent is apparent. w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetlord 10,209 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Young talent? Yeah, some but aside from Smith, no new players that can carry the team or have consistent impact on each game. The Chiefs need to hit a home run in next spring's draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I am hoping we don't go to the playoffs. We are less than 2 years into our rebuild and not going to make a run at the Super Bowl. It would means: 1. Extra games to put wear and tear on Charles. 2. A worse draft spot when we have 11 picks in the upcoming draft. I would love to have another game this year, but not at the expense of next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I am hoping we don't go to the playoffs. We are less than 2 years into our rebuild and not going to make a run at the Super Bowl. It would means: 1. Extra games to put wear and tear on Charles. 2. A worse draft spot when we have 11 picks in the upcoming draft. I would love to have another game this year, but not at the expense of next year. Whole-heartedly disagree. With 11 draft picks, we can go for value, package picks, etc. Any game can be won, go as far as you can go, build upon each game/season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kychief 239 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Right I really want a playoff run... playoffs matter when building a team...keep knocking on that damn super bowl door till you finally get it to open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FANATIC 852 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 WE beat Pitts or we don't deserve to get in. Beat them and who knows. Every team has flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 WE beat Pitts or we don't deserve to get in. Beat them and who knows. Every team has flaws. I definitely respect Pittsburgh, but I'm getting little bit tired of people acting like they are the best team in the league. They are beatable, even at home. We, of course, are beatable, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Whole-heartedly disagree. With 11 draft picks, we can go for value, package picks, etc. Any game can be won, go as far as you can go, build upon each game/season. Agree Crazy deep WR draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Agree Crazy deep WR draft The reason why I am okay with packaging picks for trade ups is because the likelihood of all 11 draft picks making the team is not guaranteed. The compensatory picks we cannot trade so we are guaranteed to get those in the middle rounds. If we can trade our first round pick and a less likely to play pick for a slightly higher first round draft pick and we make the playoffs this year, we might get the best of both worlds. Last year, with so few picks and no compensatory picks, it might've been better to miss the playoffs because then we would be giving a 3rd round pick to San Francisco instead of a second and be getting better draft picks for ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I am hoping we don't go to the playoffs. We are less than 2 years into our rebuild and not going to make a run at the Super Bowl. It would means: 1. Extra games to put wear and tear on Charles. 2. A worse draft spot when we have 11 picks in the upcoming draft. I would love to have another game this year, but not at the expense of next year. What kind of free agent pull do you want the Chiefs to have? The free agents that are looking for a team that will give them their big payday, or the free agents that are looking for a team that will help them earn a Super Bowl ring? I'd really rather have the latter, but you don't get so much as a smell from their agents if you don't look like a team that could potentially make a Super Bowl run. The Chiefs need to make it to the playoffs to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 You make a good point, but I don't think we have the cash to make a free agent splash. The draft looks like the logical place to build a team that contends for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 What kind of free agent pull do you want the Chiefs to have? The free agents that are looking for a team that will give them their big payday, or the free agents that are looking for a team that will help them earn a Super Bowl ring? I'd really rather have the latter, but you don't get so much as a smell from their agents if you don't look like a team that could potentially make a Super Bowl run. The Chiefs need to make it to the playoffs to get better. You make a good point, but I don't think we have the cash to make a free agent splash. The draft looks like the logical place to build a team that contends for years to come. Teams should always build primarily through the draft. With that said, it was amazing what caliber of talent the San Francisco 49ers were able to attract in 2012 compared with what they got in 2011. Winning in free agency is all about having the free agents compete for one of your 53 roster spots, rather than having to compete for free agents with 31 other teams. There are players who won't even look at a team that didn't make the post-season in the prior year, and others who will expect to be paid a lot to play for a team that didn't make the post-season in the prior year. It's not going to work for every free agent, as every free agent has their own agenda, but for some free agents: • They only want to play for a team that played in the post-season (you compete with 11 teams if you make the playoffs) • They only want to play for a team that played in the divisional round of the playoffs (you might be one of eight teams) • They only want to play for a team that played in the Conference Championships (you might be one of four teams) • etc. You certainly don't want to look like the team where a potential free agent imagines that they will be your franchise's savior rather than a complementary piece to the other 52 pieces. So in any case, you want to see the Chiefs win out, make it to the post-season, and make as deep a run as their ramshackle offensive line and tattered defensive corps will take them. Doing so gives the Chiefs leverage in free agent negotiations and in re-signing their own players. That is always a good thing. In fact, I would not be surprised if Justin Houston may imagine that if the Chiefs cannot make the playoffs this year, he'd better take his talent somewhere else so that he can get his big payday and have a shot at owning a share of one or more Lombardi Trophies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FANATIC 852 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I feel good about our chances. This team knows this is a playoff game. We are due to win in Pitts, due to catch an INT, Due a true lucky break and due to open up the passing game off play action against a not great Pitts defense. Control the clock and keep Pitts offense on the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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