West 6,713 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The Justin Houston Watch has begun. After not being able to come to agreement with Houston last offseason, the Chiefs now have a little over two months to either figure out a new contract for Houston or designate him as a franchise player. It is believed Houston is aiming for a maximum contract since he’s coming off a rookie deal that was based on him being a third round pick. And if Spotrac is correct, Houston is about to get paid very well after coming off a 22-sack season. Spotrac broke down the situation this morning in a post and gave their final prediction. Here’s what they came up with. Houston has increased productivity in every season, rounding off 2014 with one of the better seasons in NFL history. He’ll be highly sought should he hit the market – but all signs point to the Chiefs doing anything possible to not let that happen. Our base value of $13.665M per season ranks him as the 4th highest average paid defensive end, and the top paid outside lineback in football. When factoring in our prime percentages, our final prediction becomes: 6 years, $92,670,276. Yeah, that’s some serious cash. The average annual value would put Houston’s deal around $15.5 million with just under $49 million of the $92.67 million coming to him as guaranteed cash. This would make his total value less than J.J. Watt and Mario Williams, but give him the second highest true guaranteed money value behind Watt. Seems like a fair deal. M Should the Chiefs choose to franchise Houston they would be taking on a one-year, $16.5 (estimated) million cap hit. So dealing with this issue now is probably in the best interest of the Chiefs. Figuring out the Chiefs’ salary cap number is a little difficult because the NFL hasn’t set the actual cap number for the 2015 season. Conservative estimates have the cap number at $140 million – a number the Chiefs are presently over – but some reports suggest the cap could go as high as $150 million We’ve discussed some of the players who could end up getting the axe from the Chiefs this offseason and those players would open up plenty of room for the Chiefs to add Houston, free agent center Rodney Hudson, and a free agent or two. Kansas City offered Houston an extension last off-season but Houston balked at the numbers, choosing to play out the rest of his contract and prove his value. I’ll say that risk paid of rather well. John Dorsey must now decide if he wants to pay Houston at his peak value or if he wants to flip Houston for a large package of draft picks. It’s going to be a fascinating offseason for the Chiefs, and a rich one for Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 thats a lot of $$ but when put into perspective thats probably what he should get... WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West 6,713 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 First time I have seen numbers and a possible justification.... But, the guy is a beast and probably is the 2nd Best Defensive Player in the NFL. w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 he's young and locking him down for six years would be nice. Hard to get over that almost $100M marker but you gotta pay if you want to play. He'll get it & if not from here somewhere.. Hard for me to say he's top 2 altho I certainly will entertain the argument but a top 5 I think would be justifiable. Its a passing league & when on D if your not sacking the QB you best be a shut down corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrowhead 1,070 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Houston, i have no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 "Pay the man his money" Agree west. He is a good run stopper and very very good in coverage. JJ watt And then there are: Houston Sherman Earl Thomas Patrick Willis Navarro bowman I thought a healthy bowman was the nfl's best defender until watt went ballistic this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Pay the man. Yes, we will have to jettison some talent. I would not hesitate to release Bowe and Berry to keep him. Not saying the numbers work, but just saying. Signing 11 picks will eat some cap I am sure, but you HAVE to. He can rush the passer and cover as well as anyone in the league. What a pick up in round 3. Wow. Special, special player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Pay the man. Yes, we will have to jettison some talent. I would not hesitate to release Bowe and Berry to keep him. Not saying the numbers work, but just saying. Signing 11 picks will eat some cap I am sure, but you HAVE to. He can rush the passer and cover as well as anyone in the league. What a pick up in round 3. Wow. Special, special player. Well, he was touted as a first rounder until he hit the lettuce a little hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Sounds bad. But I am glad he did. Other wise he probably wouldn't be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West 6,713 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 I thought the part of paying him now vs the Franchise tag, actually saves KC some $. Good analysis by the Spotrac guys. w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 They're smoking fucking crack to predict 49 million guaranteed. The highest guarantee for a defensive player in the NFL is like 27 million. No fucking way he's getting 49 guaranteed, none. As for 6 years, 92 million, that's not too far off in my opinion, but seems a tad high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West 6,713 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Guaranteed cash is the number one priority of both the agent and the player as the NFL really comes down to "Not For Long".... ....Justin Houston will fight for every penny of it and the Chiefs will do everything they can to lower the number. w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eraser 722 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The Chiefs may have to pay him $100 M over 6 years. That seems to be the price. Not long ago, the Chiefs had the opportunity to get Houston done cheaper. His agent wanted much more than the Chiefs thought he was worth. They decided to get Jamaal and Alex done. In hindsight, that may have been the wrong thing to do. If that is the greatest mistake John Dorsey is to make, then I can live with that. They may want to franchise him this year, since he is riding high off of a record performance. It will be difficult to match what he did next time. So, they may be able to defray some of the costs, lower their exposure to risk, and push the commitment to when there is a better cap situation. The Chiefs will argue Houston is an OLB, and should cost $11.4 M, and the Houston camp will counter he is more like a DE, which means he should earn $13.1 M in 2015. Whether Houston wins, and gets paid as a DE is small potatoes compared to how much the Chiefs will have to ante up for his services under a long term contract. He will be paid $17 M over 6 years if the Chiefs are successful in getting a deal completed. There is a whole lot that can be done with 4 to 5 M bucks. It may mean the difference between cutting Hudson and having Kush as the starting center, or giving their best offensive lineman a long term deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm all for the Franchise tag but one has to wonder if he does put up another year like lasts ..will he even want to play for the Chiefs? then what?? Best get the deal done while there is some good blood left. Your right E Dorsey sure did screw the pooch not getting him signed last year. It might of been the right thing to do getting Charles taken care of but he is declining. Smith? Who the hell knows what he's doing but signing Houston woulda be a move for the ages. Aint hindsight a bitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 605 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm all for the Franchise tag but one has to wonder if he does put up another year like lasts ..will he even want to play for the Chiefs? then what?? Best get the deal done while there is some good blood left. Your right E Dorsey sure did screw the pooch not getting him signed last year. It might of been the right thing to do getting Charles taken care of but he is declining. Smith? Who the hell knows what he's doing but signing Houston woulda be a move for the ages. Aint hindsight a bitch? I think it was foresight, too, but I'm just a lay man, so what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Pay him. He does much more than sack the qb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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