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Mel Kiper's Mock Draft


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Yep, Brad Budde, Brian Joswiak, Percy Snow, Sly Morris, Ryan Sims, Todd Blackledge, Jon Baldwin,...............No way should any team waste a first round pick.   :)

You know what I mean. They aren't all going to work, but you have to optimize your odds there.  You do that by picking four year players who are proven excellent in top conferences, not by reaching.  We have certainly done more than our share of reaching.  I haven't looked at the numbers but I would suspect that we have done a lot worse than most teams in the first round over the years, because we seem to reach and play hunches and hype way too often.  And only four year players are likely to contribute early. 

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it is actually going to be BETTER....We will still get 3-4 comp picks added to this. Maybe 2 more 3rd rd picks.

 

w

I heard this was a possibility months ago.  Can you imagine what Dorsey and Reid could do with two more 3rd rounders? 

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You know what I mean. They aren't all going to work, but you have to optimize your odds there.  You do that by picking four year players who are proven excellent in top conferences, not by reaching.  We have certainly done more than our share of reaching.  I haven't looked at the numbers but I would suspect that we have done a lot worse than most teams in the first round over the years, because we seem to reach and play hunches and hype way too often.  And only four year players are likely to contribute early. 

Most teams do seems to draft better in the first round, but what's the common thread?  The Chiefs have gone through four GMs and a gazillion coaches and the same thing seems to happen.  Dorsey has done a good job of gathering backup players, especially on defense, but his first two picks at the top of the draft sure don't look like what we would expect.  Maybe Fisher will get stronger and Ford just needs a chance to start, but they don't fit the instant contributor mold.

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Most teams do seems to draft better in the first round, but what's the common thread?  The Chiefs have gone through four GMs and a gazillion coaches and the same thing seems to happen.  Dorsey has done a good job of gathering backup players, especially on defense, but his first two picks at the top of the draft sure don't look like what we would expect.  Maybe Fisher will get stronger and Ford just needs a chance to start, but they don't fit the instant contributor mold.

A QB is never an immediate contributor.  But other than that, I think that switching regimes every few years is very bad, because the philosophy has to be consistent.  You cannot go from "best available player" to "position of need" philosophy.  You end up trying to get a square peg to fit in a round hole.  You want a team made of square pegs or round holes, not all mixed up.  That may be part of the trouble.  Eric Fisher was an LT in college.  He was best available, but they had Albert, so they made him play RT the first year, then switched him back last year.  That is known as delaying someone's development.    Then they picked a 3-4 DE and decided to make him a 3-4 LB.  You cannot expect a guy to suddenly be a beast at LB who spent his entire college being a DE.  Its OK to change someone to fit the NFL and scheme in mid rounds if they have enough talent, but how can you get 1st round value immediately when you do that?  In both those cases we went with "best available player" and tried to mix it with "position of FUTURE need". 

 

I just think that the first round has to be handled differently than all the other rounds, with the exception of finding a franchise QB.  You expect a few years delay in that.  Otherwise, they need to play their best and be comfortable immediately. 

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A QB is never an immediate contributor.  But other than that, I think that switching regimes every few years is very bad, because the philosophy has to be consistent.  You cannot go from "best available player" to "position of need" philosophy.  You end up trying to get a square peg to fit in a round hole.  You want a team made of square pegs or round holes, not all mixed up.  That may be part of the trouble.  Eric Fisher was an LT in college.  He was best available, but they had Albert, so they made him play RT the first year, then switched him back last year.  That is known as delaying someone's development.    Then they picked a 3-4 DE and decided to make him a 3-4 LB.  You cannot expect a guy to suddenly be a beast at LB who spent his entire college being a DE.  Its OK to change someone to fit the NFL and scheme in mid rounds if they have enough talent, but how can you get 1st round value immediately when you do that?  In both those cases we went with "best available player" and tried to mix it with "position of FUTURE need". 

 

I just think that the first round has to be handled differently than all the other rounds, with the exception of finding a franchise QB.  You expect a few years delay in that.  Otherwise, they need to play their best and be comfortable immediately. 

Agree with all of that which was sort of my point.  However, I will cut Dorsey some slack in that Fisher was picked to replace Albert and Ford was drafted to replace Hali, both of whom had another year for the Chiefs.  If Fisher builds upper body strength, he may still become a solid LT, but he sure didn't fit the mold of an instant contributor.

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Agree with all of that which was sort of my point.  However, I will cut Dorsey some slack in that Fisher was picked to replace Albert and Ford was drafted to replace Hali, both of whom had another year for the Chiefs.  If Fisher builds upper body strength, he may still become a solid LT, but he sure didn't fit the mold of an instant contributor.

I give him some slack, because its not black and white.  He had little cap to work with a a terrible team to transform.  But still, the coaching decision to put Fisher at RT for a year was poorly advised, I think. And the decision on Ford was using a first rounder and then expecting him to transform into a 3-4 LB instead of a 3-4 DE, which requires completely different use of hands  and initial set. To be great, which a first round pick should eventually be, an action has to be grooved, like a golf swing,  which is merely a learned habit. It takes repetitions.  If Ford learned his hand placement and initial set for 4 years in college as a DE, it is going to take four years of a new habit, before it is totally grooved and automatic and completely overrides the four years he spent in college as a DE. 

 

From both of these examples, it is clear to me that Dorsey prefers to use first round to find best available athlete, and then develop them for later.  So, we, as fans, need to be more patient with our first round picks under Dorsey than try to compare them to other teams' first round picks.  There is nothing really wrong with Dorsey's approach.  It may pay off in a big way.  But to be ready to axe Fisher or Ford like some comments I have read in past months on this forum, is crazy.  It also means that we can start drawing up our predictions for pick 18 for a great athlete who we will need in a two or three years as a foundation player, and assume that rounds 2-7 will be for more immediate impact players or depth.  We need a lot of receivers and some OG's and middle linebackers.  We will get some of them through the draft and from FA.  But pick 18 will obviously be someone who is not necessarily the greatest in college this last season but designed to be a foundation player later on.

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Yep, Brad Budde, Brian Joswiak, Percy Snow, Sly Morris, Ryan Sims, Todd Blackledge, Jon Baldwin,...............No way should any team waste a first round pick.   :)

WEll we did luck out with Poe! lol

 

 This team does need a WR in the first, because we arent goign to get one via free agency at least not one thats going to be on the good to great side of things.

 

 Get Oline in free agency.  

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