kychief 239 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 would this be a good thing?.. 2 first round picks... Could Chiefs' Justin Houston command two first round picks?By Joel Thorman @JoelThorman on Feb 28, 2015, 1:39p 163 Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports Tweet (2) Share Pin The Kansas City Chiefs are widely expected to apply the franchise tag to Justin Houston sometime before Monday afternoon's deadline. Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio brings up a good point about the franchise tag. The Chiefs will have the option of applying the exclusive or non-exclusive tag to Houston. The non-exclusive tag, which is cheaper, would allow other teams to offer Houston a contract. And if the Chiefs don't match, the other team must send the Chiefs two first round picks and they would have the rights to Houston. The risk of another team offering up a monster contract offer and willing to part with two first round picks has always been there and it isn't very high. In other words, this isn't a very realistic situation based on past history. Teams value their draft picks so much that it's such a risk to two first round picks. In addition to that, whoever is willing to give up those draft picks must also be willing to sign Houston to a monster contract. We're talking one of the bigger contracts in the NFL, so there are only so many teams who could be in play. I don't expect a situation like this to arise. It hasn't happened in the past so I can't imagine it happening now. But if someone did offer something ... would you at least consider two first round picks for Houston? I would have to at least think about it, knowing Houston plays a premium position and is the focal point of the Chiefs defense. Because he's so important I probably wouldn't do it ... but two first round picks is enticing. So, here's the scenario: Houston gets tagged. Someone else offers him a contract. Do you match the offer or take two first round picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Picks are a joke when you have the 2nd best d player in the league. No chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West 6,713 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 2nd Best and ASCENDING player..... Get Houston signed. w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMO 6,811 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Go with the sure thing, if you can afford it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetlord 10,209 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Houston for Sims and Brad Budde? Don't think so. How much difference is there between the exclusive and non-exclusive tags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If the alternative to accepting two first round picks is taking on an unwieldy contract, you take the picks, and you're happy that you don't have to settle for a third-round compensatory pick when you can't afford your star player's Franchise Tag for a second year in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMO 6,811 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Houston for Sims and Brad Budde? Don't think so. How much difference is there between the exclusive and non-exclusive tags? Average salary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'd have to say, with this year's draft class, I'd consider the two pick option. There are a handful of really good 3-4 outside linebacker prospects in this draft that can really bend the edge. Most teams with alot of cap room, and won't be eating that cap room re-signing several of their own talented players, are picking early in the draft. Don't get me wrong, Justin Houston is a fairly outstanding 3-4 LB, but people act as though he's going to put up 22 sacks a year. I'd give him about a 1% chance of ever getting 20 again. It's far more likely he's going to get about 12-14 sacks, which is great and all, but you're talking about a guy that's going to command about 10% of your cap space. As much as I want to see Houston remain a Chief, I'd fully understand if they tagged him and didn't match if 2 first round picks came their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'd have to say, with this year's draft class, I'd consider the two pick option. There are a handful of really good 3-4 outside linebacker prospects in this draft that can really bend the edge. Most teams with alot of cap room, and won't be eating that cap room re-signing several of their own talented players, are picking early in the draft. Don't get me wrong, Justin Houston is a fairly outstanding 3-4 LB, but people act as though he's going to put up 22 sacks a year. I'd give him about a 1% chance of ever getting 20 again. It's far more likely he's going to get about 12-14 sacks, which is great and all, but you're talking about a guy that's going to command about 10% of your cap space. As much as I want to see Houston remain a Chief, I'd fully understand if they tagged him and didn't match if 2 first round picks came their way. He doesn't just rush the passer and someone as smart as you knows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eraser 722 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Absolutely NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Absolutely NOT! Finally. A voice of reason. Pure madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 He doesn't just rush the passer and someone as smart as you knows that. Finally. A voice of reason. Pure madness. What good is it to have an elite, Does Almost Anything player if all you can afford across from him is exactly the sort of personnel offensive coordinators love to run the ball toward? Houston's one of the top players at his position, but the question here becomes whether or not it is better to try to acquire a pair of potential top ten players for about a third of the price. I haven't seen a strong argument for paying top five players top five salaries: You end up keeping a big name player, but continuity and value end up suffering in the name of "paying the man". This is not as clear cut as you think it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAUI 4,758 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'd consider it in a heartbeat.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 He doesn't just rush the passer and someone as smart as you knows that. As a fan, yes, absolutely I want him back. If I'm acting as a GM, I'd prefer to have 2 guys that can put up 7-10 sacks and both be good against the run on the outside and pay the same for both as what Houston might command. The Chiefs did it smart though by setting themselves up to have a similar situation as when they drafted Houston. They paid Hali on a per year basis similar to what Houston will get (okay so Houston might get a bit more, but point is the same) and had Houston for cheap. Houston developed and by his second year they had that duo of guys that were going to combine for about 20 sacks. Now they have a situation though where they pretty much have to cut Hali loose to keep Houston and hope like hell Ford was the right pick and can duplicate the same situation. That's the tough part, cutting Hali. Hali is still effective and I worry about Ford being ready. We're going to find out. Now, if I instead take two first round draft picks, I still have Ford and Hali who could form a duo similar to what I talk about. Where you suffer is probably with Ford against the run, but you're going to anyhow when you cut Hali loose. I'd definitely think about taking the extra draft pick long and hard, knowing I can draft to replace Houston and end up with 2 young pass rushers for peanuts instead of any big contracts. You also then have that extra 1st round pick as serious ammunition, maybe it gets you a QB in 2016 to succeed Smith. The big picture my friend, that's all. I want to watch Houston play for KC as bad as you do, but NFL execs have to look at it all, and you can't tell me they wouldn't be seriously tempted not to match an offer sheet with those picks lying on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest KC Warpaint Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 for me it depends on the team making the offer, if it is a team in the top 5 or so of the draft then i would have to do some serious thinking. if it was a team that where the picks would be in the lower half of the draft then probably not so much thought required. but the NFL is a business...so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 for me it depends on the team making the offer, if it is a team in the top 5 or so of the draft then i would have to do some serious thinking. if it was a team that where the picks would be in the lower half of the draft then probably not so much thought required. but the NFL is a business...so yea if they are a perennial basement dweller and not the Raiders..its a consideration and or & if there is a QB Class reminiscent of the 84 class coming out just pay the man & stop all this silliness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 As a fan, yes, absolutely I want him back. If I'm acting as a GM, I'd prefer to have 2 guys that can put up 7-10 sacks and both be good against the run on the outside and pay the same for both as what Houston might command. The Chiefs did it smart though by setting themselves up to have a similar situation as when they drafted Houston. They paid Hali on a per year basis similar to what Houston will get (okay so Houston might get a bit more, but point is the same) and had Houston for cheap. Houston developed and by his second year they had that duo of guys that were going to combine for about 20 sacks. Now they have a situation though where they pretty much have to cut Hali loose to keep Houston and hope like hell Ford was the right pick and can duplicate the same situation. That's the tough part, cutting Hali. Hali is still effective and I worry about Ford being ready. We're going to find out. Now, if I instead take two first round draft picks, I still have Ford and Hali who could form a duo similar to what I talk about. Where you suffer is probably with Ford against the run, but you're going to anyhow when you cut Hali loose. I'd definitely think about taking the extra draft pick long and hard, knowing I can draft to replace Houston and end up with 2 young pass rushers for peanuts instead of any big contracts. You also then have that extra 1st round pick as serious ammunition, maybe it gets you a QB in 2016 to succeed Smith. The big picture my friend, that's all. I want to watch Houston play for KC as bad as you do, but NFL execs have to look at it all, and you can't tell me they wouldn't be seriously tempted not to match an offer sheet with those picks lying on the table. 2 first round picks that you have no idea what you may get. Draft is always a crap shoot. Id agree with your process if you knew what you were getting but you don't. This is also going into the "next year" mode. "They'll develop" talk...Hell no. No more of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mugsy 225 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I feel like two first round picks for a LOLB is worth it. He doesn't even go against the LT. What is he going to do when Hali is gone? I like the guy but I'd have to look at that. However, I think this is a pretty weak draft class overall and you've got to weigh that into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kychief 239 Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 depends on the team. if its new England...no. Cleveland.hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 2 first round picks that you have no idea what you may get. Draft is always a crap shoot. Id agree with your process if you knew what you were getting but you don't. This is also going into the "next year" mode. "They'll develop" talk... Hell no. No more of that. Not everyone to come out of the draft is a Julius Peppers or a Mario Williams, but that doesn't mean they're a Dewayne Robertson either. When you get two early draft picks, you get all sorts of really good options that aren't available if your first pick is in the twenties overall and your second is in the fifties. Players need time to develop, and if someone inherits Houston's roster spot, they will be no exception. With that said, how much are you willing to stake on the idea that Justin Houston is a 22 sacks per year player that makes his whole team better rather than a 14 sacks a year player in a scheme that funneled an extra 8 sacks his way? How many of his sacks came in games where he made a mockery of weak offensive linemen? Are you aware that almost two-thirds of Houston's sacks in the past two seasons came on fewer than one-third of his starts, and that in his 20 starts where he didn't register multiple sacks, he racked up little more than a half-sack per game? I like Houston, and I think he's a great player. The reality here is that if he's the sort of player worth paying two first round draft picks to acquire, he is going to cost the Chiefs more than they will be able to afford to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mugsy 225 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 After thinking about it the reality is that no one is going to give two first round picks for a left outside linebacker. Note that the last two teams that gave two first round picks in trades are picking in the top ten and neither of those teams traded for defense. The days of trading two firsts for anything are over for a while imo. It's just a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Not everyone to come out of the draft is a Julius Peppers or a Mario Williams, but that doesn't mean they're a Dewayne Robertson either. When you get two early draft picks, you get all sorts of really good options that aren't available if your first pick is in the twenties overall and your second is in the fifties. Players need time to develop, and if someone inherits Houston's roster spot, they will be no exception. With that said, how much are you willing to stake on the idea that Justin Houston is a 22 sacks per year player that makes his whole team better rather than a 14 sacks a year player in a scheme that funneled an extra 8 sacks his way? How many of his sacks came in games where he made a mockery of weak offensive linemen? Are you aware that almost two-thirds of Houston's sacks in the past two seasons came on fewer than one-third of his starts, and that in his 20 starts where he didn't register multiple sacks, he racked up little more than a half-sack per game? I like Houston, and I think he's a great player. The reality here is that if he's the sort of player worth paying two first round draft picks to acquire, he is going to cost the Chiefs more than they will be able to afford to pay. As I've already said, it's not about his sacks. He is a great defender. He is great in coverage and very good against the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CHIEFS FOREVER Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 You don't get 2, 1st round draft picks THIS YEAR! You get their 1st Rd. pick this year and their 1st Rd. pick next year!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest @Chiefsatwar Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 You know what you have in Houston!!! You don't know what you have in those picks, and the 'knowing what you have' is easily worth the extra $1-2M/season more. The Raiders and Bills would jump all over Houston if we didn't use the Exclusive Franchise Tag. Therefore, the Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag isn't even an option!!! @Chiefsatwar on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eraser 722 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You don't get 2, 1st round draft picks THIS YEAR! You get their 1st Rd. pick this year and their 1st Rd. pick next year!!!! Since the Raiders have plenty of money under the CAP, they would pounce on it. We would get their 1st pick this year, which is the #4 overall (possibly Kevin White). Then we would get their 1st round pick the following year, which would possibly be near the end of round 1, perhaps #32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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