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Chiefs 1st Round Draft Pick Prediction 2015


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I don't think the production should even be compared. Moss played at Marshall against MUCH inferior corners and had a much better QB throwing to him. DGB played against SEC corners.

 

Moss was an asshat and still is, and was a locker room disruption. I don't know where Bil got his info but I have never heard anything negative about DGB's locker room or on-field demeanor.

 

Not in any way saying that he should our pick at 18. But, he is a first round talent. That is not even debateable. His off-field behavior might keep him out of round 1. It wont be his talent.

He also played about 20 pounds lighter than he is now and was clocked sub 4.4 at that weight.

 

Although I don't think he has the explosion off the line moss had. He was always a long strider.

 

I wonder how much the extra weight costs him in leaping ability and agility.

 

I agree though. Kid is a first round talent. I don't like him for KC though. Too much history in Missouri.

 

Also agree on the qb. DGB had a glorified rb throwing to him. Frank the tank is a nice kid but not much of a qb.

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The guy didn't "make mistakes" as he claims.  That sounds like something you do on an exam.  No, he smashed his way into someone's apartment and then pushed a woman down a flight of stairs who was trying to get between him and his "girlfriend."  His problem is a hair-trigger temper and emotional lability. He is another domestic violence incident waiting to happen, another Ray Rice.  I don't fault him for smoking or possessing pot, but after getting arrested for that, he ignored the consequences and got arrested again for it a year later.  He is a young man who is not in control of his emotions. He didn't make cerebral "mistakes."  He has emotional problems.  Our team doesn't need that kind of mojo or that kind of risk.  Plus, he sucks as a route runner and would not even be allowed to play much for at least a year.  Let some other smart, but not very wise, GM take on these problems. Even if he fell to us, I would be totally astonished if a guy like Dorsey took him, even if Reid might. I am sure Reid would drool over the possibility on the field. And Reid has faith in his own ability to handle kids and help them mature.  Too much faith IMO. He cannot get a kid to grow out of emotional problems.  That takes major counseling.

I will say this. In DGB's defense, he sought out help. He went to OU, and hung around positive people. He did not have a problem in HS. His problems came as a result of getting high, and stupid in college. I cannot judge him, and you cannot either.

 

People do change. As a Christian, I see it every day. I have known people who have killed people, and went to prison. I know someone who was on death row for years.He was supposed to be dead, but little freakish things happened that resulted in delaying the process just long enough. His capital punishment was turned into a life without parole when the courts ruled the death sentence was being applied inhumanely. His lifetime incarceration was commuted by a governor. He was released from prison. Instead of leaving, he became a minister, and went back. He changed many lives while he was in prison, and after his release. I have seen it first hand. 

 

I don't think DGB will be as bad as Randy Moss. I think he will be a better teammate. My problem is he does not yet know how to play the position. In college, he NEVER learned to run a route. You can get away with that in college. It will not work in the NFL. I don't care if Randy Moss played at a smaller school. He was a man among boys at FSU, before he got kicked off. The only reason he went to Marshall was because his options were gone to go anywhere else. His ability was freakish, and it continued to be so on the field in the pros. To be clear, the difference between 4.25 and 4.45 is massive. DGB is bigger, but only 1 inch taller. Moss could leap 15 inches higher than DGB! 

 

Randy Moss

1977 Born in Rand, West Virginia

1995 School brawl leads to malicious wounding charge. Nearly killed a person after jumping into a fight he was not involved in. 

1995 Loses Notre Dame scholarship

1995 Plays one season with Florida State University Seminoles

1996 Violates terms of probation, spends 90 days in West Virginia

1996-98 Plays two seasons for Marshall University

1998 Makes dramatic catches in Vikings' Thanksgiving Day game

1999 Fined by team for assaulting NFL official

2001 Fined by team for insulting corporate sponsors

2001 Fined by league for taunting opposing team

2002 Spends night in Minneapolis jail over traffic incident, drug possession

 

I have heard Randy Moss smoked weed all through college, but Marshall just looked the other way. Marshall is not a small school. It is a little smaller than Kansas University. They also have a similar acceptance rate, which means if you can chew gum and walk at the same time... you are in. Which was really good for Wilkie, since he may have had trouble getting into my undergrad program. 

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:lol: my best laugh today. Thanks, E.

Yes. People can change through spiritual awakening. I know that for a fact. Miracles happen. Not recommending we bet a high draft pick on that, though.

I got ya. Thanks for the comments. 

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BPA at pick #18 might be a RB, so do we go with Gordon or Gurley instead of a position of need.

If they have that player as the BPA at #18 then yes. But I caution anyone not to confuse your own criteria as BPA with what Dorsey and Reid have. 

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http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings

 

CBS Sports has ranked La'El Collins 10th best prospect in the NFL draft. I do not disagree. That is the player I have the Chiefs taking with their first pick. I said it since December. 

 

Others not likely taken before the Chiefs pick according to this cbssports ranking after Collins at 10. 

16 Alvin Dupree DE

17 Landon Collins SS

18 Todd Gurley RB

19 Andrus Peat OT

20 Jalen Strong WR

21 Ereck Flowers OT

22 Melvin Gordon RB

23 Dorial Green-Beckham WR

24 Kevin Johnson CB

25 Cameron Erving C

26 Breshad Perriman WR

27 Arik Armstead DT

28 Maxx Williams TE

29 Owamagme Odighizuwa DE

30 Marcus Peters CB

31 T J Clemmings OT

32 Eddie Goldman DT

33 Preston Smith DE

34 Shaq Thompson OLB/SS

35 Erick Kendricks ILB

36 PJ Williams CB

37 Jake Fisher OT

39 Sammie Coates WR

 

 

So, you can argue with that ranking on a player here or there. You may slide a player up or down on that list, but not by much. It is not a horrible ranking. Unless a team makes a bone headed decision (which does happen with bad teams) then these players will be the first round players plus six. Some of these guys may fall a good ways, but I don't see anyone being drafted in the first round who is not on this top 39 list. 

 

1. Likely, the Chiefs will take the OT, La'El Collins, and push him to RT

2. If they don't like La'El, there are two other OTs reasonably close that could go to the Chiefs

3. Landon Collins could make sense if they feel A. Eric Berry will not return next year, and B. they do not go OT. 

4. If the Chiefs don't see someone they like at 18, there are players people want there, and they could definitely move back to get a guy they want. 

a. trade back and get CB

b. trade back and get ILB

c. trade back and get Maxx Williams at TE

 

I don't see much other. I do think the Chiefs will draft a RB, but not this high. DGB will not go to the Chiefs at 18, and the Chiefs are not likely going to trade back to the back of the 1st round, and take him there either. I don't like Coates, or Perriman in the first round for the Chiefs. The only player I believe the Chiefs may have their eyes on would be Jalen Strong, but even that is hard to envision. 

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Last year, the Dee Ford pick floored me because I had him as the #35 player in the draft. So, despite what Dorsey said, he does occasionally go after the best player at a position of need. He was not on anyone's radar at 23 in 2014. So, the idea John Dorsey only picks the BPA is false (unless you are to believe this guy was the #23 player on his chart that day. 

 

I think John Dorsey forced that draft pick, and got a player who should have been taken much later. I do not believe he will repeat this error again. He is setting up everything this year to be in a position to take the BPA. The Chiefs are loading their team before the draft. That makes it very unlikely the Chiefs will reach again. I think Dorsey learned by his mistake. 

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How do you know it was a mistake? He said time and time again that he doesn't care where everyone else ranks a prospect. He's said many times that he is a former scout and he's going to trust his scouts. I believe him. 

 

Have you ever tried to pick the entire first round? Do know how hard it is? If you guess 4-5 right then you are kicking ass. All we know is player measurables, what we see on film, and what the media tells us through "experts" and interviews. We have no idea about medical concerns, football IQ, work ethic, off the field issues, or psychological/social behavior. 

 

Dee Ford seemed like a reach from where we are sitting but, it's too early to tell imo. We don't know half the story.

 

I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm just saying our findings aren't even close to the whole picture when we evaluate these guys.

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I liked the Ford pick. I preferred DeMarcus Lawrence but that's another story entirely. I was thinking pass rusher the whole time.

 

There may have been a little panic because of the whole Johnny Football scenario but perhaps that's just the pulse of the fans and Dorsey/Reid had their sights on Ford regardless.

 

The only other guys I really liked at that spot were Teddy and Dennard.

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Last year, the Dee Ford pick floored me because I had him as the #35 player in the draft. So, despite what Dorsey said, he does occasionally go after the best player at a position of need. He was not on anyone's radar at 23 in 2014. So, the idea John Dorsey only picks the BPA is false (unless you are to believe this guy was the #23 player on his chart that day.

 

I think John Dorsey forced that draft pick, and got a player who should have been taken much later. I do not believe he will repeat this error again. He is setting up everything this year to be in a position to take the BPA. The Chiefs are loading their team before the draft. That makes it very unlikely the Chiefs will reach again. I think Dorsey learned by his mistake.

Maybe it was an inability to trade down? I don't know, but I do know we didn't have a 2nd rounder and that of course we wanted Ford. The whole Johnny Football thing could have just been that attempt at moving down we couldn't get.

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How do you know it was a mistake? He said time and time again that he doesn't care where everyone else ranks a prospect. He's said many times that he is a former scout and he's going to trust his scouts. I believe him. 

 

Have you ever tried to pick the entire first round? Do know how hard it is? If you guess 4-5 right then you are kicking ass. All we know is player measurables, what we see on film, and what the media tells us through "experts" and interviews. We have no idea about medical concerns, football IQ, work ethic, off the field issues, or psychological/social behavior. 

 

Dee Ford seemed like a reach from where we are sitting but, it's too early to tell imo. We don't know half the story.

 

I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm just saying our findings aren't even close to the whole picture when we evaluate these guys.

Absolutely, Mugs.

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Last year, the Dee Ford pick floored me because I had him as the #35 player in the draft. So, despite what Dorsey said, he does occasionally go after the best player at a position of need. He was not on anyone's radar at 23 in 2014. So, the idea John Dorsey only picks the BPA is false (unless you are to believe this guy was the #23 player on his chart that day.

 

I think John Dorsey forced that draft pick, and got a player who should have been taken much later. I do not believe he will repeat this error again. He is setting up everything this year to be in a position to take the BPA. The Chiefs are loading their team before the draft. That makes it very unlikely the Chiefs will reach again. I think Dorsey learned by his mistake.

Disagree. I think ford probably was that high on his list.

 

This year is much the same. There are 8-10 blue chip guys, another 8-10 definite first round guys and then about 30-40 guys that are bunched up around the same grade and the boards will probably swing wildly on that last group from team to team.

 

That said I don't think drafting ford was a mistake and I don't think Dorsey see's it that way. 34 olb conversion projects always take a few years.

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I hope we can do well in the draft, but the truth is that none of us will really know until 2017 or 2018.  Knowing Reid, he sure likes dominating, nasty O-linemen.  With a great O-line, Alex Smith can win a Super Bowl in our system.  Other than  another fast and big WR to play X, we have all the playmakers needed.

 

I would be very happy if we could get T.J. Clemmings at #18.  Or La'el Collins.  But especially Clemmings.  I don't think we will take Erving, even though Hudson is gone. I could be wrong.

 

Now, watch us take a WR.

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I hope we can do well in the draft, but the truth is that none of us will really know until 2017 or 2018. Knowing Reid, he sure likes dominating, nasty O-linemen. With a great O-line, Alex Smith can win a Super Bowl in our system. Other than another fast and big WR to play X, we have all the playmakers needed.

 

I would be very happy if we could get T.J. Clemmings at #18. Or La'el Collins. But especially Clemmings. I don't think we will take Erving, even though Hudson is gone. I could be wrong.

 

Now, watch us take a WR.

Clemmings is a project. He has all of the tools, but we might be waiting longer than we have waited on Fisher for him to develop them.

 

I think Clemmings is a 2nd rounder at best.

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The only other guys I really liked at that spot were Teddy and Dennard.

 

I like Teddy but we were never taking a QB in the first and we won't this year either. Look at the investment they made in Alex and Chase. They also have two young QBs that they've made a point to keep around.

 

This year is much the same. There are 8-10 blue chip guys, another 8-10 definite first round guys and then about 30-40 guys that are bunched up around the same grade and the boards will probably swing wildly on that last group from team to team.

 

 

 

I agree. That last 30-40 is going to be interesting. I don't feel like this is a very strong draft class. 

 

Clemmings is a project. He has all of the tools, but we might be waiting longer than we have waited on Fisher for him to develop them.

 

I think Clemmings is a 2nd rounder at best.

 

Honestly, I feel like all of the tackles are projects in a way. They just aren't that good. The best prospects like Schreff and Collins will probably end up being guards. 

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Clemmings is a project. He has all of the tools, but we might be waiting longer than we have waited on Fisher for him to develop them.

 

I think Clemmings is a 2nd rounder at best.

Aw, c'mon!  They're all projects. :lol:

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