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Prospects You Don't Like and Why


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I'm going to express my opinion on something here Bil, piggybacking off of what you wrote. It isn't against you but is more against the general "team speak" and "philosophy" we hear from GMs and whatnot.

 

First, Best Player Available is draft myth in my eyes. This term is used over and over again by teams, GMs, and whomever to describe an artificial philosophy that aims to make people feel all nice and fuzzy.

 

What do teams actually do? They draft best player available at a position of need whether that need is immediate or within the immediate future (usually 1 year, 2 years out at most).

 

Let's pretend, for a moment, that teams actually did draft "best player available." Think back to the 2012 NFL draft. The Cleveland Browns took Trent Richardson at #3 overall despite that fact that Matt Kalil was WIDELY regarded as the best player prospect in that draft after Andrew Luck and RGiII, and the consensus top offensive left tackle. Not only did they take Richardson, they traded up from 4 to 3 to take Richardson over Kalil. Kalil would have had to play right tackle for the Browns, because they had Joe Thomas at left tackle, a perennial All-Pro player.  This is just an example, but teams don't just take players because they are a top rated player.

 

Teams try to fill holes, especially early on in the draft. Teams don't draft positions/players they have adequately filled for the near future. Teams will draft to fill holes they know are coming, whether they lack talent there or for financial reasons that they expect to hinder re-signing of players. The Chiefs did the latter last season and the former in 2013 in the first round.

 

If my holes are at RT, CB, ILB, and WR then I'm going to do my best to plug as many of those holes with quality players. If I know that I'm going to likely need an OLB, DE, and an OG next year, then those positions are on my board too. When the draft rolls around, I follow my board and fill any of my current or future holes with the best player from my board. The further along the draft goes, the more I look at Special Teams and depth versus board value.

 

I have yet to see a team legitimately draft purely on BPA philosophy. It would be great to have a team so good that all you had to do was follow a board and take the best player that fell to your pick, but that isn't realistic.

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what if they go all crazy like and draft...a running back?...

 

Gordon.....or....

 

I could see us drafting Gordon. He is so much like Charles. Not as fast but similar style..... We have to have a running back who can catch the football out of the backfield in this offense. Can Davis do that? So far so good but, I'm not sure he would be dependable for an entire season.

 

The only thing that worries me about Gordon is that Wisconsin running backs never live up to the hype when they get in the NFL. I shouldn't stereotype but it worries me. 

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Spent some time watching Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State again yesterday and feel that he is really over hyped. He does not cut very well. His 7.03 three cone at the combine reflects that too. That time is pedestrian. Peters and Johnson are clearly better. Waynes excels at defending deep routs but, struggles badly against comebacks, hooks, and curls. I mean really badly.... He is going to be eaten alive in the NFL on those routes.

 

I would pass on Waynes. 

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I'm going to express my opinion on something here Bil, piggybacking off of what you wrote. It isn't against you but is more against the general "team speak" and "philosophy" we hear from GMs and whatnot.

 

First, Best Player Available is draft myth in my eyes. This term is used over and over again by teams, GMs, and whomever to describe an artificial philosophy that aims to make people feel all nice and fuzzy.

 

What do teams actually do? They draft best player available at a position of need whether that need is immediate or within the immediate future (usually 1 year, 2 years out at most).

 

Let's pretend, for a moment, that teams actually did draft "best player available." Think back to the 2012 NFL draft. The Cleveland Browns took Trent Richardson at #3 overall despite that fact that Matt Kalil was WIDELY regarded as the best player prospect in that draft after Andrew Luck and RGiII, and the consensus top offensive left tackle. Not only did they take Richardson, they traded up from 4 to 3 to take Richardson over Kalil. Kalil would have had to play right tackle for the Browns, because they had Joe Thomas at left tackle, a perennial All-Pro player. This is just an example, but teams don't just take players because they are a top rated player.

 

Teams try to fill holes, especially early on in the draft. Teams don't draft positions/players they have adequately filled for the near future. Teams will draft to fill holes they know are coming, whether they lack talent there or for financial reasons that they expect to hinder re-signing of players. The Chiefs did the latter last season and the former in 2013 in the first round.

 

If my holes are at RT, CB, ILB, and WR then I'm going to do my best to plug as many of those holes with quality players. If I know that I'm going to likely need an OLB, DE, and an OG next year, then those positions are on my board too. When the draft rolls around, I follow my board and fill any of my current or future holes with the best player from my board. The further along the draft goes, the more I look at Special Teams and depth versus board value.

 

I have yet to see a team legitimately draft purely on BPA philosophy. It would be great to have a team so good that all you had to do was follow a board and take the best player that fell to your pick, but that isn't realistic.

Interesting post. I mostly agree. I think that it is more often in the later rounds. Difficult to image not filling a hole in round 1. That guy needs to start. I would say Dee Ford is a good example of not drafting for an immediate need. And Rogers. And maybe Phillips.

 

Everything is a need eventually. So I assume we are saying need as immediate need.

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I'm going to express my opinion on something here Bil, piggybacking off of what you wrote. It isn't against you but is more against the general "team speak" and "philosophy" we hear from GMs and whatnot.

 

First, Best Player Available is draft myth in my eyes. This term is used over and over again by teams, GMs, and whomever to describe an artificial philosophy that aims to make people feel all nice and fuzzy.

 

What do teams actually do? They draft best player available at a position of need whether that need is immediate or within the immediate future (usually 1 year, 2 years out at most).

 

Let's pretend, for a moment, that teams actually did draft "best player available." Think back to the 2012 NFL draft. The Cleveland Browns took Trent Richardson at #3 overall despite that fact that Matt Kalil was WIDELY regarded as the best player prospect in that draft after Andrew Luck and RGiII, and the consensus top offensive left tackle. Not only did they take Richardson, they traded up from 4 to 3 to take Richardson over Kalil. Kalil would have had to play right tackle for the Browns, because they had Joe Thomas at left tackle, a perennial All-Pro player.  This is just an example, but teams don't just take players because they are a top rated player.

 

Teams try to fill holes, especially early on in the draft. Teams don't draft positions/players they have adequately filled for the near future. Teams will draft to fill holes they know are coming, whether they lack talent there or for financial reasons that they expect to hinder re-signing of players. The Chiefs did the latter last season and the former in 2013 in the first round.

 

If my holes are at RT, CB, ILB, and WR then I'm going to do my best to plug as many of those holes with quality players. If I know that I'm going to likely need an OLB, DE, and an OG next year, then those positions are on my board too. When the draft rolls around, I follow my board and fill any of my current or future holes with the best player from my board. The further along the draft goes, the more I look at Special Teams and depth versus board value.

 

I have yet to see a team legitimately draft purely on BPA philosophy. It would be great to have a team so good that all you had to do was follow a board and take the best player that fell to your pick, but that isn't realistic.

Very good post.  I cannot disagree, as much as I wonder what the long term outcome of pure BPA would be.  I continue to find myself thinking of need based on contracts coming up in 2-3 years.

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Spent some time watching Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State again yesterday and feel that he is really over hyped. He does not cut very well. His 7.03 three cone at the combine reflects that too. That time is pedestrian. Peters and Johnson are clearly better. Waynes excels at defending deep routs but, struggles badly against comebacks, hooks, and curls. I mean really badly.... He is going to be eaten alive in the NFL on those routes.

 

I would pass on Waynes. 

 

Probably won't make it past Minnesota at #11 anyway.

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Dgb the kid is a thug always has been always will be. He is from my hometown and I have heard plenty of things about him that just got swept under the rug. Tons of talent but a bunch of trouble just waiting to happen. Sure someone will take a shot on him just hope it's not the chiefs

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Dgb the kid is a thug always has been always will be. He is from my hometown and I have heard plenty of things about him that just got swept under the rug. Tons of talent but a bunch of trouble just waiting to happen. Sure someone will take a shot on him just hope it's not the chiefs

Hope not.  I agree with you.  What he got caught for has to be the tip of the iceberg, knowing the way college players are allowed to get away with about anything, unlike the NFL. In college, everyone covers for you.   And even then, he was booted from his first team.  He is an absolute disaster waiting to happen.

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Very good post.  I cannot disagree, as much as I wonder what the long term outcome of pure BPA would be.  I continue to find myself thinking of need based on contracts coming up in 2-3 years.

Back in about 1991 the Chiefs had Christian Okoye and Barry Word. Still opted to take another running Harvey Williams. BPA?

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Word was to be the successor to Okoye but he got injured the following year.   Chiefs couldn't have known Word would be injured when they drafted Williams.  This was a BPA choice at a time they really needed someone to replace Steve DeBerg.

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I thought about listing whoever was projected robe Mr. Irrelevant as a prospect I didn't like/thought was overrated, but didn't think anyone would get it.

 

Then, I thought about doing a Top Five Prospects Thread for our last pick, as a joke, but KCCrow would actually have a list (found in his UDFA list possibly).

 

Poor me. And Wilkie already has dibs on the April Fools Day Thread.

 

:(

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I want to like him but he's Flozell Adams part deux. He's a penalty machine. 

True. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000488130/article/scout-slams-overrated-stanford-ot-andrus-peat

 

He just turned 21 years of age. He is a little soft. I think he has a 50/50 shot of fixing his issues and becoming a very good pass blocking LT. I don't think he will ever be dominant. 

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