2014-15 Season Preview

[KCSLC2008 605]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/08/27/2014-preview-kansas-city-chiefs/

 

Most fans expected the Kansas City Chiefs to improve upon their 2-14 record of 2012, but few could have predicted what they did last season. With new coach Andy Reid and new quarterback Alex Smith, the Chiefs won their first nine games and finished the year with an 11-5 record and a wild card berth. Few will ever forget the epic collapse in their playoff game against the Colts which ended the season.

This offseason was filled with more losses than gains, as the Chiefs’ offense lost their three best starting offensive lineman from last season. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs said goodbye to stalwarts like Brandon Flowers and Tyson Jackson. This season the Chiefs are hoping that even without those players, they can build on the success of 2013 and win their first playoff game since 1993.

Five Reasons to be Confident

1. Dual-threat Jamaal Charles

When discussing the Chiefs, Jamaal Charles is always the first name that comes up. One of the best running backs in the entire league, he enjoyed one of his finest seasons last year. His +19.1 overall grade was his highest ever and his 19 touchdowns led the NFL. What makes Charles so difficult to defend is his ability to be just as dangerous in the passing game (+7.1 grade) as he is in the run game (+11.3 grade). Last season, his 63 total missed tackles forced was the fourth-highest number in the league. It helps that Charles gets to run behind Anthony Sherman, last year’s highest-graded fullback (+16.7 blocking). Even without his offensive line’s help, Charles still manages to excel as shown by his 12th-best Elusive Rating. If Charles stays healthy, look for the Chiefs to lean on him offensively once again this season, and expect Charles not to disappoint.

2. A Dynamic Duo

No team boasts a better outside linebacker duo than the Chiefs do with Justin Houston andTamba Hali, who last season had a combined overall grade of +53.9. Houston was our highest-graded 3-4 outside linebacker, and he missed five games with an elbow injury. Where these two really excel is when they rush the quarterback. Last season, they combined for 136 total pressures and 22 sacks. They finished the year ranked third and fourth in ourPass Rushing Productivity with Houston earning a 14.1 mark  and Hali finishing at 12.2. When these two linebackers are healthy, there are very few teams in the league that can slow them down.

3. The Run-Stuffing Front Seven

Last season the Chiefs’ run defense was one of the best in the NFL, and look for that to continue this season. They finished third overall with a +50.5 grade, and will look to improve upon that this season. Of their starting front seven, only one player (newcomer Vance Walker) finished last season with a run defense grade below +1.0. This unit, anchored by elite defensive tackle Dontari Poe and standout run stopping end Mike DeVito (+16.4 run defense grade), allowed only nine rushing touchdowns all of last season. They’ve also improved by bringing in linebacker Joe Mays (currently expected to miss time with a wrist injury), who had a +2.5 run defense grade last season. This is good news for the Chiefs, as this season they face some of the best rushing offenses in the NFL.

4. Alex Smith

Last season it was easy to assume that Alex Smith only had a good season because he faced weak defenses in the first half of the year. Once he was forced to play from behind, against teams like the Broncos and the Chiefs, he would struggle. However, in those first nine wins Smith received just a -4.2 overall grade. In the remaining seven games Smith finished with a +8.4 grade. When the Chiefs were forced to throw and play a high scoring game, Smith showed that he could keep up. In those seven games, the Chiefs offense averaged 43 points per game. While he does have his limitations, as highlighted in our analysis of his work during our QBs in Focus series, if the Chiefs allow Smith to go to work passing then this offense could be even better than it was last season.

5. Ball Safety

The fastest way to lose a game of football is to turn the ball over. The Chiefs clearly took that to heart last season, as they had the fourth fewest turnovers in the league with 17, including the fewest interceptions thrown with 9. Alex Smith is one of the better quarterbacks in the league when it comes to ball safety, having averaged an interception every 69 attempts over the past three seasons. The league average over that same span (for QB’s with at least 100 pass attempts) is one interception every 37 attempts. At running back, Jamaal Charles turned the ball over a mere two times last season, on 329 total touches. It’s a great sign for the Chiefs when their two best players won’t cost them a game with a turnover.

Five Reasons to be Concerned

1. An Offensive Line to Forget About

The Chiefs offensive line is without a doubt the weakest starting unit on the team. Last season, the Chiefs had a respectable line, fairly above average in pass and run blocking. Yet after an offseason that saw them lose their three best starters in Geoff Schwartz (+18.9overall grade), Jon Asamoah (+9.2) and Brandon Albert (+5.9), this season could be a rough one. Center Rodney Hudson and his +4.4 grade is the highest rated player on the line. The other four projected starters for the Chiefs combined for a dreadful -50.4 overall grade last season. Eric Fisher struggled at right tackle, and now will be asked to defend Alex Smith’s blindside against arguably stronger defensive players. Steve Palazzolo took a more in-depth look at the struggles of the Chiefs offensive line that can be found right here.

2. A Trip to the West Coast (Schedule)

Many pointed to the Chiefs lack of tough opponents last season as the reason for their success. They only played six games against playoff teams and lost all but one of them. The Chiefs’ 11 wins came against teams with a win percentage of 0.343 compared to five losses against teams with a win percentage of 0.688. While it doesn’t necessarily tell the whole truth, it paints a picture of a team that won games that it was supposed to and nothing more. This season they won’t have that luxury. The Chiefs have to play seven games against playoff teams, as well as games against the Steelers and Cardinals (the two best non-playoff teams in the AFC and NFC last season). The Chiefs play eight games against top ten graded defenses this season. They play the four teams that made the AFC and NFC Championships last season. If the Chiefs are to improve on last season, they are going to have to beat some seriously talented teams.

3. Who’s Catching What Smith is Throwing?

Dwayne Bowe is a deep threat receiver. That is what he excels at, and that is what he needs to do to contribute to the Chiefs. The problem with that is that Alex Smith does not like to throw deep. Since Bowe came into the league he has averaged 24 Deep Passing targets per season. This past season he was targeted only seven times on throws over 20 yards. Smith really needs to open up his game and throw it deep to Bowe if he wants him to excel. Behind Bowe, the Chiefs really have nobody else to pick up the slack. When Donnie Averyand his career -39.4 grade is the next best option, it shows how much trouble the Chiefs receiver group could be in. The lone bright spot at this point is tight end Travis Kelce, who has put up a +5.0 grade in three preseason games and even made our Team of the Preseason: Second Team. However he did a lot of that damage against second team players, so that doesn’t mean he’ll shine come the regular season.

4. Average Secondary

Eric Berry is an elite talent and easily one of the best strong safeties in the league. He is one of the best in coverage, but is even more talented when it comes to rushing the passer. His Pass Rushing Productivity rating of 20.8 was the second best among safeties in the league. But behind Berry, the rest of the Chiefs secondary doesn’t give much reason for optimism. Marcus Cooper and Sean Smith have never been anything more than average corners. Husain Abdullah is nothing spectacular, never getting a grade higher than +1.0 in any regular season game last year, but never going below -0.7. This is a unit that can be taken advantage of by good receivers, as shown by the 339 yards per game passing they gave up in their six losses last season. Given some of the offenses they’ll play this season (Broncos, Patriots, 49ers) the secondary will need to improve somehow if they want to compete with those teams

5. Lack of Depth All-Around

While the Chiefs have a solid amount of good starters on both sides of the ball, it is their lack of overall depth that is concerning. According to our Chiefs depth chart, the team only has ten backup players with enough information on them to actually place them in a category, and only three of them are at least average. The Chiefs have 21 backups that are either rookies, or have not played enough NFL snaps to warrant any judgment. If any of the Chiefs elite or above average talent go down with an injury, they are going to have a tough time finding someone from their bench that is capable enough to replace them.

[KCSLC2008 605]

Pressure's on defense to create pressure

A Step Ahead

How quick is rookie Dee Ford's first step? During one drill at training camp, the first-round outside linebacker was nearly to the quarterback before the lineman blocking him made a move. "He kind of reminds me of Von Miller with the way he gets off the ball," says linebacker Joe Mays, a former Bronco. "He's a freak." If the Chiefs learned anything from last season, it's the importance of edge pressure. They had 36 sacks during their 9-0 start and 12 in their final eight games, when they went 2-6. Ford will help rectify that one first step at a time.

Best-Kept Secret

The Chiefs are better at tight end than they've been since trading Tony Gonzalez before the 2009 season. The starter, Anthony Fasano, is a solid player who has become a reliable short- and medium-range receiver. Travis Kelce is 260 pounds but is fast enough to be a big-play threat down the field. He had two touchdowns of longer than 40 yards in the preseason. Demetrius Harris played basketball, not football, in college, so he's developing and may not play a lot. But the 6-foot-7 Harris could be a nice red zone target. The Chiefs will get more than the 53 catches they got from their tight ends last season.

Worst-kept secret

The Chiefs are in trouble if they can't generate more pass rush than they did over the last several games of last season. Other than safety Eric Berry, the Chiefs are thin in the secondary. Two of the players competing for starting spots at cornerback, Ron Parker and Marcus Cooper, were waiver claims last season. Berry has missed practice time at training camp and preseason games because of tendinitis in his heel. If the Chiefs don't get big seasons from outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and contributions from Ford, they will allow a lot of big pass plays.

{C}

 

Jeff Moffett/Icon SMI

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QB Confidential

As told to NFL Nation, an active player gives his assessment of QB Alex Smith:

"People don't really see him as a runner, but he can escape pressure, run, get out and hurt you there. If you don't remember that, he's going to convert some of those third-and-5s on you even if you think you did everything right. He's very smart, very smart. ... He's smart enough to check out of something if we had the right call on, and then he can take off and run if he doesn't like what's there. He's not like Kaepernick fast or anything, but he can run, man, so you have to keep him in the pocket. You know he isn't going to take a lot of risks, and he hasn't really shown he'll push the ball down the field into tight windows. So if you keep him in the pocket and take away his progressions, especially his first options, you can slow that offense down."

Make-or-break stretch

After beginning the season at home against Tennessee, the Chiefs have a stretch of five games that will determine the fate of their season. Included are four road games (against Denver, Miami, San Francisco and San Diego) and a Monday night home game against New England. If the Chiefs can get two wins here and beat the Titans to begin the season, that would get them to 3-3, where they presumably wouldn't be buried. The schedule flattens out to an extent after that, but it's still difficult to see the Chiefs rallying from 2-4 (or worse) to become a serious playoff contender.

Teicher's prediction

8-8. A win total somewhere between the seven projected by Advanced Football Analytics and nine sounds about right for the Chiefs. They aren't as good as their 9-0 start from last season and not as bad as their 2-6 finish. A difficult schedule dictates a lesser win total than in 2013.

 

GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS

By Advanced Football Analytics

Chiefs' ProjectedRecord

7-9

 

WIN  LOSS

• Sept. 7 vs. TEN 22-0
• Sept. 14 @ DEN 23-14
• Sept. 21 @ MIA 35-27
• Sept. 29 vs. NE 16-6
• Oct. 5 @ SF 28-26
• Oct. 19 @ SD 36-19
• Oct. 26 vs. STL 24-13
• Nov. 2 vs. NYJ 24-6
• Nov. 9 @ BUF 22-14
• Nov. 16 vs. SEA 15-10
• Nov. 20 @ OAK 27-14
• Nov. 30 vs. DEN 27-7
• Dec. 7 @ ARI 25-20
• Dec. 14 vs. OAK 37-17
• Dec. 21 @ PIT 38-13
• Dec. 28 vs. SD 32-28

 

Vegas Vibe

By LVH SuperBook

Super Bowl Odds

50-1

Over/Under Wins

8

[mongo 92]

I've lowered my prediction to 6-10.  And 5 wins is a real possibility.  I no longer think the Chiefs will sweep OAK or win @BUF.  Sweeping OAK on a good year is hard enough.  And Buffalo?  Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, and KC's OL.  Enough said. 

[SEMO 6,811]

8-8

[kychief 239]

6-10...

[Handswarmer 645]

Offensive line will not allow Smith to even handoff the ball to Charles....

 

Its gonna be ugly

[wilkie 1,518]

I've lowered my prediction to 6-10.  And 5 wins is a real possibility.  I no longer think the Chiefs will sweep OAK or win @BUF.  Sweeping OAK on a good year is hard enough.  And Buffalo?  Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, and KC's OL.  Enough said.

 

I am down to 6 and 10. P reseason does not count. But it is a barometer.

[Calichief 3,016]

I am down to 6 and 10. P reseason does not count. But it is a barometer.

It's all about the OLINE.

[SEMO 6,811]

Seattle cut Winston. Desperate enough?

[mongo 92]

I posted it on another topic and I'll repost it here:  "Vanilla" has nothing to do with losing one-on-one matchups consistently.  The entire OL was guilty of it.  The secondary too.  The WR did not win enough of them.

[Mr Ev 332]

Seattle cut Winston. Desperate enough?

Fuck.

No.

 

I don't respect men who are bitches...and he's a bitch. Cry some more Winston.

[mongo 92]

Bump

[eraser 722]

I think they will end the season 6 - 10. It will be a tough year. Clearly the offensive line is not up to par. My hope is they can survive this year and next. They could be in a better position in 2016 with the salary cap. If they can find someone to dump off a couple of running backs, we may end up with a pick or two more in the '15 draft. As it stands now, the Chiefs should have around 12 picks. They need to make some changes. I wouldn't get too attached to the players on this team. Other than the core players, everyone is vulnerable to be traded or released. 

[Guest Guest]

Not football related, but is this website messed up? All my forum topics are medicine related. Is there a virus on this site? It's the only one like this on my phone..please let me know..

[kcchief4lif 910]

Not football related, but is this website messed up? All my forum topics are medicine related. Is there a virus on this site? It's the only one like this on my phone..please let me know..

yep

[eraser 722]

I think someone is hacking the site. I tried to ignore the person posting the spam about internet meds. However, the abusive posts are still there. I don't see it with anyone other than three individual posters. I made some disparaging remarks directly to the person pushing the pills. If I offended that person, and it was not their fault, then I sincerely apologize. However, it doesn't seem likely to me that three unknowns happen to be taking over our site with spam, and it was all unintentional. 

[SEMO 6,811]

I pm'd Boss on twitter about it.

[eraser 722]

Good. Hey, until then... let's just bump or comment on old posts that are valid. We need to keep medicine man's posts buried. 

[KCSLC2008 605]

http://o.canada.com/sports/nfl/scott-stinson-nfls-strength-of-schedule-math-doesnt-always-add-up