What is the max we can expect from Alex Smith?

[dhitter 1,424]

Let's assume the Oline is better this year than last (make of that what you will). And that the Wide Receiver position is upgraded as well.

 

Alex Smith's career highs are 3,313 yards in a season and 23 TD's. Both from 2013.

 

So what do you expect from Smith in 2015?

 

Personally, I think he's a 3,300 yard guy...period. Not a horrible thing but he is what he is. Yards will be distributed differently than last year but does anyone think suddenly Smith is going to be a 4,000 yard guy? I certainly don't. Thoughts?

 

p.s....I'd love to be wrong.

[KCSLC2008 606]

I'm expecting 7.5 yards per attempt, over 65% completion percentage, and 5.0% TD percentage. Only the TD% would be a career high. His career high is 8.0 YPA, 70.2%, and 4.8 TD%. Last year, they were 7.04 YPA, 65.3%, and 3.9%. In 2013, 6.5 YPA, 60.6%, and 4.5%.

 

To be fair, his 3300 yard and 23 TD season you reference was in 15 games, so 3,534 and 25 TDs is pro-rated for a full season and I don't expect Andy to call fewer pass plays nor the YPA to be as low, IMO.

 

As I said in my other post, 3600-4000 would be my guess because our oline should be more 2013ish, where he got 3534 per 16 games. Add in a better receiving corp and I would bump that up to 3,600 as the floor.

 

Yes, I don't expect 4,000, just saying that's where I would start getting surprised. 3800 would be a great number to get. I just think 3,600 is a floor if we don't blow teams out and rest Smith (getting blown out would increase those numbers in garbage time).

 

Latter 2013 he had half a season near 4K pace, so 3600 isn't too far fetched in my opinion. Remember, his numbers with us are 15 games. 2013's 15 games plus playoffs equal 3691 yards and 25 TDs in 16.

[KCSLC2008 606]

I would like to insist on efficiency stats like YPA, completion percentage, TD%, INT%, red zone conversions, third down conversions, ANY Y/A, etc. Total yards bug me because that's so dependent upon pass/run ratio and playing 15 or 16 games - injuries are part of the game and expectations, but sitting out the last Chargers game because we clinched in 2013 works against him? I mean, heck, we went vanilla against Indy the first 2013 game because we knew we were playing them. That already hurt Smith's stats.

 

I understand that efficiency stats are bolstered by a good running team and that completion percentage is high when short passes are made (though the plays themselves can be complex and the throws heavily timed, which makes it more difficult than it looks because reads are being made). YPA can also be high if you have YAC, some of it's the receivers and some of it is the QB finding them in space. Some of it's system. But I can't look for low efficiency stats and I just think if you are going to go on stats, totals are effected heavily by number of games and system.

Before someone says stats are for losers, this thread was made for stats. For losers? Just kidding.

[dhitter 1,424]

KCSL....some good thoughts. I would agree that overall yards per season is an overrated stat. It's too easy to be credited with yards that you really didn't have to do much to earn such as the dump off screen pass that the RB breaks a couple tackles and turns into a big gain. Or losing late in a game and getting garbage yards from a soft prevent type defense. Ultimately the only stat that matters is wins vs. losses. However, in a league where guys are topping 300 yards a game consistently, it's mindful to note that it only takes 250 yards per game for a QB to hit 4,000. 

 

Alex Smith is a 210-220 yard a game QB. He will hit the upper 200's in a game here or there but that will be balanced by a 180 yard effort. That has been his MO. If he gets 3,500 yards and 25 TD's I would be happy with that effort.

[KCSLC2008 606]

KCSL....some good thoughts. I would agree that overall yards per season is an overrated stat. It's too easy to be credited with yards that you really didn't have to do much to earn such as the dump off screen pass that the RB breaks a couple tackles and turns into a big gain. Or losing late in a game and getting garbage yards from a soft prevent type defense. Ultimately the only stat that matters is wins vs. losses. However, in a league where guys are topping 300 yards a game consistently, it's mindful to note that it only takes 250 yards per game for a QB to hit 4,000.

 

Alex Smith is a 210-220 yard a game QB. He will hit the upper 200's in a game here or there but that will be balanced by a 180 yard effort. That has been his MO. If he gets 3,500 yards and 25 TD's I would be happy with that effort.

6.5 YPA = 3250 Yards = 203 Per Game

7.0 YPA = 3500 Yards = 218.75 Per Game

7.5 YPA = 3750 Yards = 234.4 Per Game

8.0 YPA = 4000 Yards = 250 Per Game

 

I think he's closer to a 7.5 YPA QB with this supporting cast and coach. Now, how many games will he play and how many throws? That gets you more than the 210-220 YPG QB if you pass more. I'm not docking Smith if they run more and I know whatever he'll get will have YAC, so I don't feel I'm over-claiming him.

 

He threw 7.0 last year. We can't move up half a yard with better protection and receivers, just redistribute the wealth (yards) from RBs/TEs to WRs? Moving around targets to different players isn't going to increase production? We are going to pass less?

 

I'm not claiming he will gunsling it or go Peyton Manning on us. If you want to go totals on me, 220 is his floor, IMO, so long as all games are complete games. (The game he got his famous concussion brought down his per game averages.)

[KCSLC2008 606]

2013 - 542 Passes Per 16

2014 - 495 Passes Per 16

 

If we take the lower number of attempts, to get the higher YPG of 220, he needs to bump his 7.04 YPA to 7.11 YPA. I think he does that and more with our improved OL and WRs. Nothing earth shattering, just saying your high of your range is the floor for me. (If we threw 542 times, he'd only need 6.5 YPA. Somewhere in the middle is possible, too.) His last four years average is 7.15 YPA.

 

Game 1 may look bad, as it is against Houston, but Denver and GB next may hurt the record but help those numbers. Wins and losses are all that matters, just trying to project numbers.

[PhataLerror 370]

I'm not inclined to believe that Smith's modus operandi will change: He will continue to choose the probable completion for the first down over the possible completion for a touchdown. With that said, he could push for thirty total touchdowns this season, and his completion rate and average yards per attempt could both see a big rise. We won't be seeing a 40 touchdown season, and I'm not inclined to expect even a 4,000 yard passing total.

 

You just don't need that to win either the small or the big games in the NFL.

When did Peyton Manning throw for 55 touchdowns?: He was throwing to Demaryius Thomas (14 touchdowns), Eric Decker (11 touchdowns), Wes Welker (10 touchdowns), and Julius Thomas (12 touchdowns). All in a year where his offensive line kept him very clean.

When did Tom Brady throw for 50 touchdowns?: He was throwing to future Hall of Fame wide receiver Randy Moss (23 touchdowns), and a healthier Wes Welker (8 touchdowns). His offensive line was solid as well.

When did Drew Brees throw for 5,347 yards (the high-water mark before Peyton Manning's 2013 season)? He was throwing to Jimmy Graham (1,310 yards on 99 receptions), Darren Sproles out of the backfield (710 yards on 86 receptions), and Marques Colston (1,143 yards on 80 receptions), as well as to Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson, who all benefited from playing behind that cast of starters. All in a year in which the Saints passed on 60% of their offensive plays and yet managed to limit opponents to one sack for approximately every 30 dropbacks.

 

Alex Smith does not appear to have one of these situations this season, despite that what he has this season could yet prove to be better than anything he has ever worked with in a career going into its eleventh year. Doug Peterson is going to run his offense, not those of Pete Carmichael, Jr., Josh McDaniels, or Adam Gase. Smith isn't being put in a situation that is going to permit him to break volume-based records, and I don't have a problem with this.

 

I'd like to see Smith continue his trend of making the right play given the situation. Because a better offensive line and a better receiver corps would translate to a higher floor when it comes to the worst possible outcome for any given decision by Alex Smith, rather than appearing grossly conservative, he may end this season being perceived as an 'error-free quarterback'. It would be satisfying to see him put up Eli Manning numbers, but with one-third of the turnovers.

[FANATIC 852]

With this defense we may be leading late in the game much more often. Thus ball control. I still think over 30 tds... Kelce should be huge , better screens, more running back passes for tds , maybe a bomb or two , more yards after catch and over 4,000 yards.

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

Unlike some in here I believe he could take us to the SB and win it.

 

Remember QBs are just one facet of a team, and a 49ers team with him as the starting QB was two muffed punts away from the SB. He had beaten Brees the week prior and had Eli beaten before the muffed punts.

[NChiefsCorner 496]

You have already seen the max IMO.

[eraser 722]

What is the max we can hope to see from Alex Smith? A Super Bowl win. Will we? It depends on how things come together, especially on the offensive line. Also, it depends on if the Chiefs can avoid the injury bug they suffered last year. 

[eraser 722]

With this defense we may be leading late in the game much more often. Thus ball control. I still think over 30 tds... Kelce should be huge , better screens, more running back passes for tds , maybe a bomb or two , more yards after catch and over 4,000 yards.

The Chiefs need to get another veteran TE. It was announced Harris had to have another surgery, but may be ready for camp. Even with a healthy Harris, the Chiefs need more ammo at TE than Kelce, who missed his rookie season with micro surgery to his knee. 

[eraser 722]

Jermaine Gresham is about the only TE worth bringing in, unless Zach Miller miraculously gets healthy. Although Kenny Cook is not big enough to play TE, but his size could land him on the team. 

[KCSLC2008 606]

Jermaine Gresham is about the only TE worth bringing in, unless Zach Miller miraculously gets healthy. Although Kenny Cook is not big enough to play TE, but his size could land him on the team.

We should trade Chase Daniel for Vernon Davis and what do people think of Boone (other than being a malcontent)?

 

No, I'm not seriously duggesting Davis is available for that.

[PhataLerror 370]

We should trade Chase Daniel for Vernon Davis and what do people think of Boone (other than being a malcontent)?

 

No, I'm not seriously duggesting Davis is available for that.

While Boone is a malcontent and I am a big advocate for players playing out their contracts, I do understand his viewpoint: The quarterback got a raise because he's a quarterback, while Boone signed a team-friendly long-term contract years before and shortly thereafter played at a level well above his pay grade. He also didn't get along with the prior head coach, and he continues to believe that if it weren't for players like him, Kaepernick would be even worse than he is.

 

It would be pretty cool for Smith to have Davis across from Kelce. It's not going to happen unless Davis wants to take a big pay cut, and I don't see that happening.

[eraser 722]

Vernon Davis may have hit the end of his career. His production took a serious nose dive. 

[FANATIC 852]

Tong G is still in great shape. Im serious. Bring him in for a playoff run! I know he has a great gig now but you never know.

[PhataLerror 370]

Vernon Davis may have hit the end of his career. His production took a serious nose dive. 

Davis' statistical plunge was not entirely his fault. He was a positive contributor to that offense especially in the area of run blocking. He developed alligator arms throughout the year, and that was due in part to Kaepernick frequently leading him across the middle with difficult-to-track passes that ultimately resulted in him getting blown up by linebackers and safeties and at times concussed as a result.

 

Vernon Davis has years of good football left if he can find a niche on a team with one of the league's approximately 24 better quarterbacks.

[azchief21 5,278]

I think he'll have a season like last year. I do think he'll throw a TD pass to a WR. I think that's a team goal.

[West 6,713]

Max Ceiling?

 

Super Bowl...

 

I want Alex Smith to lead this team to the Super Bowl and WIN.

 

Stats from Qb's are interesting but the ultimate measurement is going to be Playoff Wins this year.

 

w

[eraser 722]

Davis' statistical plunge was not entirely his fault. He was a positive contributor to that offense especially in the area of run blocking. He developed alligator arms throughout the year, and that was due in part to Kaepernick frequently leading him across the middle with difficult-to-track passes that ultimately resulted in him getting blown up by linebackers and safeties and at times concussed as a result.

 

Vernon Davis has years of good football left if he can find a niche on a team with one of the league's approximately 24 better quarterbacks.

Even so, he has one year remaining on his contract. The 49ers could release him or trade him, and save salary cap. However, they are under their cap, and I cannot imagine why they would do that this year. The Chiefs could not afford him unless they can get Houston signed to a new contract. 

[KCSLC2008 606]

Can the Chiefs Get More from Passing Game?

 

The Kansas City Chiefs want to get more from the passing game in 2015. That much is obvious after signing free-agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin in the first round and selecting athletic receiver Chris Conley in the third round. Along with tight end Travis Kelce and slot receiver De’Anthony Thomas, quarterback Alex Smith now has weapons as he has never had before.

 

Based on the receiving talent alone, there should be little doubt that the Chiefs will get much more from their passing game.

 

Over the last six years, Smith has averaged a 62.4 percent completion percentage in 75 starts. What Smith doesn’t get enough credit for is his remarkable consistency.

 

According to Pro Football Focus, Smith attempted just 5.2 percent of his passes over 20 yards. Over the last couple of years, it’s been around eight or nine percent.

 

At times, he’s been up around 10 percent of his passes thrown over 20 yards. With the talent he has now, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that again. At worst, we’ll likely see a return to around eight percent.

 

Projecting Weapons

 

Since Smith has been so consistent over such a long period, it’s actually easy to see how and where the offense can grow around him. For starters, Smith loves throwing to tight ends and running backs.

 

Smith targeted San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis more than any other receiver when he was there. Davis has hauled in an astounding 24.6 percent on the touchdowns Smith has thrown, 14.1 percent of his passing yards and 12 percent of his completions. Those numbers have obviously been on the decline since he arrived in Kansas City two years ago as well.

 

Kelce is already in the top 10 of Smith’s favorite targets in most categories. Smith also loved throwing to tight end Delanie Walker in San Francisco. Tight ends appeal to Smith’s nature as a quarterback, which is conservative to a fault.

 

Running backs Frank Gore and Jamaal Charles are third and fifth on Smith’s list of targets and completions. Charles has caught 12 touchdowns from Smith, one more than Michael Crabtree has and second most of any player.

 

Remarkably, Smith has completed about 67 percent of his passes to Gore and Charles. He’s similarly consistent throwing to his No. 1 receivers, with a 61.7 percent completion rate to Crabtree and 59.1 percent to Dwayne Bowe.

 

Both Bowe and Crabtree have averaged around 12 yards per reception from Smith. Maclin averaged 15.5 per reception last year and 13.9 in his career. His low was 12.4 yards per reception in 2012 for the Eagles, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s final season at Philadelphia as head coach.

 

The notable difference was his production after the catch in 2014. Last year, Maclin averaged 6.0 yards per reception after the catch, but so did his rookie teammate Jordan Matthews. In 2013, DeSean Jackson averaged 6.0 yards per reception in the same offense.

 

In Reid’s offense, Maclin’s averages were 4.2, 4.4, 3.9 and 4.5 yards after the catch. If we split the difference, assuming part of the difference was Maclin being the No. 2 receiver in Reid’s offense and the other due to offensive differences, a decent projection for Maclin would be around 5.2 yards after the catch for the Chiefs in 2015.

 

Based on his average of about 70 receptions per 16 games under Reid at roughly 14-15 yards per reception, Maclin has a very real shot at becoming Smith’s first 1,000-yard wide receiver if he stays healthy. Don't expect Maclin to better the 1,318 yards he had last season with Kelce and Charles there to gobble up any added opportunities.

 

You have to love the fit of Maclin in the offense considering his familiarity with Reid and his style of play considering Smith’s tendencies. It’s roughly 200-300 more passing yards on marginally more receptions than Bowe has been putting up over the last two years. That’s a notable uptick in production.

 

You may not have to temper any expectations for Kelce, who had an incredible 2014 season. He averaged 7.5 yards per reception after the catch and caught a ridiculous 82.7 percent of his targets, both tops in the league. This production is a feature of Reid’s offense that hasn’t been talked about enough.

 

Brent Celek averaged 8.0 yards after the catch per reception and 13.1 yards per catch in 2011 under Reid. Creating operating space for his tight ends is something Reid does well.

 

The fact that he now has two receivers who can pull safety coverage, Kelce’s production should continue to skyrocket. Factor in Smith’s love for throwing to the tight end and you have major production potential. If Kelce stays healthy, he too has a chance at a 1,000-yard season.

 

Considering how little production Smith’s No. 2 receiver has had historically, it’s a lot harder to be high on Conley or Thomas. Conley’s lack of college production and the typical rookie struggles won’t help him either.

 

Conley and Thomas could be nothing more than ancillary options. Charles will still be heavily involved in the passing game as well, and there are only so many passes to go around.

 

Charles is probably good for 300-400 receiving yards every year. In 2013, the Chiefs used him more, but now they don’t have to overwork him. No major changes should be expected unless there is an injury.

 

Putting it Together

 

The Chiefs have figured out a way to get more production from the passing game. That should be welcome news for Chiefs fans as long as expectations are reasonable.

 

There will be improvement with Maclin, but a huge jump in production seems unlikely considering other options. There are also more options now, so the Chiefs won’t need Maclin to do as much of the work. In fact, Maclin and Kelce have a mutually beneficial relationship on the field, but only one player can get the ball on a given play.

 

Conley’s best usage will be as a decoy and blocker rather than a big part of the offense. A larger role for Conley or Thomas would likely offset the production of Kelce, Charles or Maclin.

 

From a yardage perspective, the last two years have been the most productive of Smith’s career. Last year, he completed 65.3 percent of his passes—second to his 70.2% career high. In 2013, his 3,313 passing yards and 23 touchdowns were both career highs, in 15 games.

 

If his weapons stay healthy, Smith could be in for another career year, but a 4,000-yard passing season with a 1,400-yard receiver remains unlikely. Expect a lot more of the same from the offense and more from his weapons.

[KCSLC2008 606]

I know that this is the fluff time of year and trust in pads and live action is different than minicamp, but this is where I felt optimistic Smith will have more trust/chemistry with Maclin. Maclin seems to be the most professional #1 target Smith has had, along with most consistently talented and football instincts/smart.

 

Not expecting 1300 yards and 10 TDs, but even in this spread it out system, Smith getting his first 1,000 yard receiver and a career high to a single WR wouldn't be too surprising. Maclin's makeup and familiarity with an offense that is now in the third year of development and drafting gives me hope that the offense will be less spoken of negatively.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/29/jeremy-maclin-alex-smith-has-a-guy-he-can-trust/

 

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/article-2/Chiefs-QB-Alex-Smith-and-WR-Jeremy-Maclin-Couldnt-Be-Off-to-Better-Start/62fc7ecb-d54f-4448-a14a-7ee040ead379

[KCSLC2008 606]

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/7/9/8882575/ceiling-alex-smith-kansas-city-chiefs

[FANATIC 852]

Smith has shown he can make all the plays, is mobile, quick release when needed,smart and experienced. If he has time to throw the ball downfield he will have success. He has the weapons now he needs protection to make the deeper throws. The receivers should also be open more often because they have more weapons. You cant cover everyone. Great RB, Tight End and Better WRS.

 

Smith has no ceiling.