KCSLC2008 606 Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 I was thinking about my expectations this year, from the record to the stats and to intangibles. I started to think about what things if they went differently than that my expectations would surprise me enough to change the forecast for the remaining part of the year. Example: If we start out 2-0, I will probably keep my expected record of 10-6 because we could drop a game like Tennessee or Oakland last year, but 3-0 would force me to expect 11-5. 1-2 or 1-3, par for the course, but if we start out 0-4, I'd expect 9-7 or worse. If Alex threw 4 TDs (all to WRs, lol) in the game opener, I would probably keep my expectations of 25 TDs (OL/WR improvement). But 9 in the opening three, I'd expect 30. Just examples. Do you have any thresholds that could be passed, either way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Game 1: Houston 23-39 (59%), 258 Yards (6.6 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 85.2 QB Rating Reasons: Houston allowed 57.3% passing for opposing QBs with 22.5 completions for 39.3 attempts per game. Houston's opponents threw 2 or more TDs in 10 of the 16 games and 1 INT or more in 12 of 16. Threw 263 yards or more in 9 of 16. 6.6 YPA or higher in 9 as well. 11.07 yards per catch or more in 8 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West 6,713 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Game Changer: Week One: Maclin and Charles go down like DJ and DeVito last year. our big risks are the O-line gelling quickly and the Injury Bug IMO. w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kychief 239 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 yep the o-line and injuries will determine the fate of this team.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 Game 2: Denver 26-40 (65%), 244 Yards (6.1 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 87.9 QB Rating (22 Sack yards lost on 3 sacks.) Reasons: Denver allowed 62.2% passing for opposing QBs with 24.8 completions for 40 attempts per game. Denver's opponents threw 2 or more TDs in 10 of the 16 games, but 3 or more in only 3 games. 1 INT or more in 13 of 16. Threw 220 yards or more in 10 of 16. 6.1 YPA or higher in 10 as well. 9.34 yards per catch or more in 10 games. Denver's opponents threw 26 completions or more in 8 of the 16 games and 24+ in 10. Threw for an average of 40 times with over 41 in 9 games. I gave the higher (26) completions due to higher percentage average in our two games against Denver. I took the average attempts just because. I came up with the 244 yards prediction both based upon 6.1 YPA * 40 attempts and 26 completions at 9.34 yards per catch. For the TDs, just look at the above paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 So far: Game 1: Houston 23-39 (59%), 258 Yards (6.6 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 85.2 QB Rating Game 2: Denver 26-40 (65%), 244 Yards (6.1 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 87.9 QB Rating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Game 3: Green Bay 21-34 (61.8%), 231 Yards (6.8 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 89.2 QB Rating (14 Sack yards lost on 2 sacks.)Reasons: Green Bay allowed 59.1% passing for opposing QBs with 20.7 completions for 35 attempts per game. I chose 34 because 10 of the 16 opponents threw at least 34 times.Green Bay's opponents threw 2 or more TDs in 10 of the 16 games, but 3 or more in only 3 games. 1 INT or more in 12 of 16, but never more than twice. Threw 222 yards or more in 10 of 16. 6.8 YPA or higher in 9 as well. 11 yards per catch or more in 10 games.Green Bay's opponents threw 21 completions or more in 10 of the 16 games but 24+ only in 3. Threw for an average of 35 times with 41+ in 3 games, 39+ in 5.I gave the average (21) completions. I took slightly below average attempts just because. I came up with the 231 yards prediction with the 11 YPC average as well as the 6.8 YPA (9 of 16). For the TDs, just look at the above paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 So far: Game 1: Houston 23-39 (59%), 258 Yards (6.6 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 85.2 QB Rating Game 2: Denver 26-40 (65%), 244 Yards (6.1 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 87.9 QB Rating Game 3: Green Bay 21-34 (61.8%), 231 Yards (6.8 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 89.2 QB Rating I know the attempts are getting out of hand... I will adjust later when I get to 16 games. I also think the completion percentage and YPA is lower than reality, TDs 1 too high, and INTs 1 too high. (So 5 TDs with 2 INTs for first three games makes more sense). But I don't feel it's right to switch until I see the whole picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted September 13, 2015 Author Share Posted September 13, 2015 Game 1: Houston 23-39 (59%), 258 Yards (6.6 YPA), 2 TDs 1 INT 85.2 QB Rating Reasons: Houston allowed 57.3% passing for opposing QBs with 22.5 completions for 39.3 attempts per game. Houston's opponents threw 2 or more TDs in 10 of the 16 games and 1 INT or more in 12 of 16. Threw 263 yards or more in 9 of 16. 6.6 YPA or higher in 9 as well. 11.07 yards per catch or more in 8 games. We would have beaten every stat here if it weren't for that 39 yard catch being reversed. If Smith threw it a bit better it could've been another touchdown and 300 yards. If Maclin was able to hold on, it would've been 280+ yards. The other deep play was safe but deep throw. 22/33 (66.7%), 243 Yards, 7.4 YPA, 3 TDs, 118.8 QB Rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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