Where should Justin Houston be on list of highest-paid players?

[KC Warpaint 3,234]

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Adam Teicher, ESPN Staff Writer

 

Twenty-two NFL defensive players have a contract that pays them on average at least $10 million per year, and there’s no argument that Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston deserves to be one of them.

 

The Chiefs have already made him a one-year offer worth about $13.2 million to secure his rights as their franchise player. Houston has yet to sign the contract in hopes of landing a lucrative, long-term deal.

 

The multiyear contract is being held up by the debate on exactly how high Houston should be on that list of $10-million-plus defenders. And make no mistake, Houston wants to be high on that list.

 

“I guarantee he’s looking for $16 million [annually] and $50 million in guaranteed money," said ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, a former NFL player and a personnel director for two NFL teams. “Without a doubt."

A contract like that would tie Houston for third on that highest-paid list with Buffalo’s Mario Williams. It would put Houston close to the Texans' J.J. Watt, who is second on the list at about $16.7 million per season.

Ndamukong Suh is atop the list at about $19 million in the contract he recently signed as a free agent with the Miami Dolphins. That’s out of Houston’s range.

 

“I’m not even going to put the Ndamukong Suh contract in there for comparison’s sake because that’s a whole different dynamic," Riddick said. “You get into the open market like [suh] and all rationale falls away."

Watt is another matter. He’s been a spectacular player with more than 20 sacks in two of his four NFL seasons.

Highest Paid Defenders

 

Here is a list of NFL defensive players with the 10 highest average salaries.

 

Player                    Avg. Salary

Ndamukong Suh    $19,062,500

 

J.J. Watt                 $16,666,667

 

Mario Williams        $16,000,000

 

Robert Quinn         $14,253,724

 

Patrick Peterson    $14,010,000

 

Darrelle Revis        $14,000,000

 

Richard Sherman   $14,000,000

 

Gerald McCoy        $13,600,000

 

Clay Matthews        $13,000,000

 

Charles Johnson    $12,666,667

 

It’s difficult to argue that Houston, who led the NFL with 22 sacks last season, isn’t as good. He’s a superb all-around player who also excels in pass coverage and against the run.

 

“It’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison, but just from a purely pass-rush perspective, Houston has 48.5 and Watt has 57 [career sacks]," Riddick said. Both players arrived in the NFL in 2011.

 

“He’s not very far behind. But Justin has rushed the passer the last three years like 700 fewer times. He’s dropping back into coverage. So if you were to project what his sack totals would be if he was purely able to come off the edge every single time, who knows what Justin’s stats would be?"

 

Pro Football Focus’ statistics show that Houston was on the field 620 times last year when Chiefs’ opponents attempted to throw a pass. He dropped into coverage 158 times.

 

Had he rushed the quarterback instead on those 158 plays, Houston certainly could have broken the NFL record of 22.5 sacks set by Michael Strahan of the New York Giants.

 

There’s more to the discussion than whether Houston deserves Watt-like money. The Chiefs don’t have to pay it. The franchise-player designation for Houston gives them a lot of leverage.

 

“The Chiefs are in a strong position because they can absorb and handle the franchise tag," said ESPN analyst Mark Dominik, a former general manager with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

Yet there’s a cost to the Chiefs of having Houston as an unsigned franchise player. That $13.2 million contract offer to Houston counts against their salary cap even if Houston doesn’t sign the deal. Houston can also sit out the season or a portion of it. That’s why the best option is for the sides to agree on a long-term deal. “He’s a talented player, a consistent player," Dominik said. “You never want those kinds of players to leave the building.

 

“I think he’s worth a contract like the one J.J. Watt has, given where the salary cap is headed. Elite pass-rushers are hard to find. Justin Houston in the $16 million range might seem like he’s up there in the rarified air, but the reality is that there are going to be a lot of guys headed that way. The cap is going to be growing and that money is all going to the best players."

[AlwaysChiefs 82]

It's like an alternate universe. To a retired school teacher, it's hard to understand why a football player would fight so fiercely for 16 million dollars a year (for several years) instead of 14 million per year. With even the slightest degree of spending restraint and extremely conservative investment, your entire family is set for life, even if you settle for the lesser figure.

 

Others will say, "Hey, it's two million dollars. That's worth fighting for."  Maybe, But when you are slated to make more money playing one football game on one afternoon than the average slob makes in a lifetime of hard work, it seems bizarre.

[KCSLC2008 606]

It's like an alternate universe. To a retired school teacher, it's hard to understand why a football player would fight so fiercely for 16 million dollars a year (for several years) instead of 14 million per year. With even the slightest degree of spending restraint and extremely conservative investment, your entire family is set for life, even if you settle for the lesser figure.

 

Others will say, "Hey, it's two million dollars. That's worth fighting for." Maybe, But when you are slated to make more money playing one football game on one afternoon than the average slob makes in a lifetime of hard work, it seems bizarre.

What is bizarre to me as well is that if he decides to sit out until week 10 then he will lose nine or 10 games of salary. At 13.2 million prorated is about 7 or 8 million lost by not showing up. If The dispute is between 14 and 16 million per year, five-year deal would be 10 million difference. So he would be losing 8 million to try to get 10. That's $2 million over five years. Let's say if there's another hold out at the end of the contract, he could lose that 2 million as well.

[Calichief 3,016]

Right below watt.

[PhataLerror 370]

Justin Houston ranks just behind J.J. Watt when it comes to ability as a pass-rusher. The problem is that ranking in and of itself doesn't justify a salary scaled on the basis of how other teams pay their players.

 

There are two different comparisons here: What a player is worth, and what a player will be paid. There are teams that will pay Houston $16 million per year. The Chiefs don't have to be one of them. I haven't seen a defender in the NFL worth over 10% of the salary cap. There's more to being a defensive player than soaking up offensive linemen, and I don't recognize Houston as being a player that truly is worth the salary ordinarily due three separate starters.

 

I like Houston. I can't justify his position as being worth more than $13 million per year.

[DieHard 2,061]

He is not the pure pass rusher Watt is, but I am not sure I would trade him for Watt. He has a bigger tool box.

[xen 1,010,220]

He is not the pure pass rusher Watt is, but I am not sure I would trade him for Watt. He has a bigger tool box.

I would. You'll have an easier time finding another good 34 olb pass rusher than another guy that destroys from the 34 end position.

 

I realize it would be hard to find another olb as good as houston, but with watt you wouldn't need it. With watt next to Poe and bailey... fuggedaboutit.

[DieHard 2,061]

Fair enough. I will take one of each.

[Mugsy 225]

Houston should be the highest paid linebacker and make a little more than Mathews. However, he's not a defensive linemen so he shouldn't be paid like one. This is the same thing as Jimmy Graham wanting WR money. Also, he's a LOLB. He's not even a ROLB going against LTs. He's also had drug problems in the past. I like the guy but, I wouldn't sell the farm for him. I really wouldn't. I'd offer $14 million/year and call it a day. You can find 3-4 Pass Rushers imo.

[KCSLC2008 606]

Justin Houston's contract situation is the latest example of this principle: The longer a team waits to sign a Pro Bowl-caliber player, the more it's going to cost, provided the player stays healthy. The Kansas City Chiefs missed an opportunity to sign Houston to a contract extension in the neighborhood of Tamba Hali's deal prior to the start of the 2014 regular season. Hali received a five-year, $57.5 million contract (worth a maximum of $60 million through salary escalators) containing $35 million in guarantees from the Chiefs in 2011 as the team's franchise player.

What is a fair price for Houston? Let's assess his place in the market.

Justin Houston's performance

Houston had a career season at the perfect time: in his contract year. His 2014 season was worthy of Defensive Player of Year honors in most years, if not for Houston Texansdefensive end J.J. Watt turning in one of the most dominant seasons ever for a defensive player. Houston just missed out on breaking Michael Strahan's single season record of 22.5 sacks by posting an NFL leading 22 sacks. The Chiefs gave Houston a $13.195 million franchise tag to keep him off the open market.

Besides having outstanding raw numbers, Houston fared well in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) metrics. He was PFF's top rated 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, which was the case in 2013 even though he missed five games with an elbow injury. PFF tracks total quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hurries and quarterback hits). Houston was second in the NFL with 85 pressures. He also led PFF's pass rushing productivity metric (minimum of 250 pass rushing snaps), which measures quarterback pressure created on a per-snap basis, last season.

Houston isn't one-dimensional. He is a good run defender and adept in pass coverage. Houston graded out as PFF's fourth best 3-4 outside linebacker against the run in 2014. He tied for PFF's fourth-highest grade in pass coverage among 3-4 outside linebackers last season.

Justin Houston nearly eclipsed Michael Strahan's sack record in 2014.  (Getty Images)

Valuing Justin Houston

The Chiefs and Houston have until July 15 to reach agreement on a long-term deal because the team designated him as their franchise player. After this July 15 deadline passes, the Chiefs are prohibited from signing Houston to a multi-year contact until the end of the 2015 regular season (January 3, 2016).

It is my understanding that the Chiefs are willing to make Houston the NFL's highest-paid linebacker. Clay Matthews sets the salary standard for linebackers with the five-year, $66 million extension he received from the Green Bay Packers in 2013.

Matthews doesn't measure up statistically to Houston since getting his big contract. Houston has an NFL-best 33 sacks over the last two seasons in just 27 games. His 144 quarterback pressures during this span tie him with Robert Quinn for second in the NFL. Houston's pressures came on 776 pass rushing snaps according to PFF, while Quinn's were on 939 pass rushing snaps. Matthews has also played 27 games during the 2013 and 2014 seasons but produced 18.5 sacks. His 31.5 sacks in 39 games over the last three years are less than Houston's two-year total.

Joel Segal, Houston's agent, believes his client deserves to be paid among the top non-quarterbacks in the NFL after the type of season Houston had in 2014. It is also my understanding that his salary expectations changed after Ndamukong Suh's six-year, $114.375 million contract containing $59.955 million fully guaranteed with the Miami Dolphins re-set the market for non-quarterbacks. Segal's concept of taking more than just the linebacker market into consideration seems reasonable given Houston had a Defensive Player of the Year caliber season.

Becoming the highest-paid player on the Chiefs isn't a realistic target for Houston. Alex Smith has that distinction at $17 million per year.

Typically, the starting quarterback is at the top of a team's salary hierarchy when he gets a lucrative contract. For example, Ryan Tannehill is the highest-paid player on the Dolphins (by average yearly salary) despite Suh being one of the game's best defense players. The same is true with the Detroit Lions. Calvin Johnson is arguably one of the five best players in the NFL when healthy but Matthew Stafford is the team's highest-paid player.

Below is a chart outlining the top non-quarterback deals with averages for the five highest-paid non-quarterbacks, five highest defensive players and three highest-paid pass rushers.

 

 

THE NFL'S TOP NON-QUARTERBACK DEALS NAME CLUB POSITION YEAR SIGNED CONTRACT GUARANTEES FULLY GUARANTEED AT SIGNING AVERAGE SALARY CONTRACT LENGTH Ndamukong Suh Dolphins DT 2015 $59,955,000 $59,955,000 $19,062,500 6 Years J.J. Watt Texans DE 2014 $51,876,385 $30,876,385 $16,666,667 6 Yr Extension Calvin Johnson Lions WR 2012 $53,250,000 $53,250,000 $16,207,143 7 Yr Extension Mario Williams Bills DE 2012 $50,000,000 $24,900,000 $16,000,000 6 Years Robert Quinn Rams DE 2014 $41,171,136 $15,618,563 $14,253,724 4 Yr Extension Darrelle Revis Jets CB 2015 $39,000,000 $39,000,000 $14,024,212 5 Years

 

AVERAGES OF NFL'S TOP NON-QUARTERBACK DEALS AVERAGE OF CONTRACT GUARANTEES FULLY GUARANTEED AT SIGNING AVERAGE SALARY CONTRACT LENGTH 5 highest-paid non-QBs $51,250,504 $36,919,994 $16,580,686 5.8 Years 5 highest-paid defenders $48,400,504 $34,069,994 $16,204,109 5.4 Years 3 highest-paid pash rushers $47,682,507 $23,798,323 $15,813,431 5.33 Years

 

$48.75 million is usually the guaranteed money associated with Calvin Johnson's contract. This interpretation omits the $4.5 million roster bonus in his rookie contract, which was payable on the same day the new deal was executed, from the guaranteed money. This roster bonus is included in Johnson's contract guarantees.

The maximum value of Williams' deal is $100 million thanks to $4 million of incentives based on Pro Bowl selections and sacks. Williams has earned $800,000 in incentives so far. Watt and Quinn's money fully guaranteed at signing includes 2015 roster bonus that become fully guaranteed several days after their contracts were signed.

Suggested contract for Houston

Signing bonus: $20 Million ($7.5 Million deferred until 4/1/2016)
Guaranteed money: $48 Million 
Fully guaranteed at signing: $28.375 Million 
Deal total: $81.25 Million 
Contract length: 5 Years 
Average per year: $16.25 Million
 

 

PROPOSED JUSTIN HOUSTON CONTRACT YEAR BASE SALARY WORKOUT BONUS SIGNING BONUS PRORATION SALARY CAP NUMBER CASH FLOW % OF DEAL EARNED 2015 $1,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $13,500,000 25.85% 2016 $14,750,000 $250,000 $4,000,000 $19,000,000 $36,000,000 44.31% 2017 $15,750,000 $250,000 $4,000,000 $20,000,000 $52,000,000 64% 2018 $14,000,000 $250,000 $4,000,000 $18,250,000 $66,000,000 81.23% 2019 $14,750,000 $250,000 $4,000,000 $19,000,000 $81,250,000 100%

 

2015: Guaranteed for skill, injury & salary cap 
2016: $14.75 million guaranteed for injury; $7.375 million skill and salary cap at signing; $7.375 million skill and salary cap on 5th day of 2016 league year 
2017: $12.25 million guaranteed for injury; skill & salary cap on 5th day of 2016 league year

Making sense of the proposed contract

Houston's contract guarantees and average year salary are a happy medium of the three suggested valuation methods (average of five highest-paid non-quarterbacks, average of five-highest paid defensive players and average of three highest-paid pass rushers) while remaining consistent with Kansas City's contract preferences and structural conventions. The most relevant contracts signed by the team in recent years are the five-year deals for Hali, Dwayne Bowe and Jeremy Maclin, which average over $10 million per year.

Houston's $20 million signing bonus is $2 million more than Alex Smith's. It is appropriate, considering Hali and Bowe each had $15 million signing bonuses, which represented approximately 26 percent of their total contract value. Houston's signing bonus is slightly under 25 percent of the total value of his deal.

A significant portion of Houston's signing bonus is deferred until April 1, 2016 because it's a common practice of the Chiefs. $6 million of Maclin's $12 million signing bonus is payable on the same date. Smith received $8 million of his $18 million signing bonus on April 1 this year.

The percentage earned after each contract year doesn't take into account salary deferrals. Houston's percentages are in line with Bowe, Maclin and Hali's, which are in the chart below.
 

 

PERCENTAGE OF DEAL EARNED FOR CHIEFS PLAYERS NAME 1ST YEAR 2ND YEAR 3RD YEAR 4TH YEAR 5TH YEAR Dwayne Bowe 28.57% 44.64% 64.29% 82.14% 100% Tamba Hali 27.83% 47.83% 69.57% 84.35% 100% Jeremy Maclin 23.64% 41.82% 60% 80% 100% Average 26.71% 44.81% 64.69% 82.2% 100%

 

Kansas City's highest-priced signings have player-friendly salary guarantees. $22.5 million of Maclin's five-year deal for $55 million is fully guaranteed at signing. Smith's entire $14.1 million 2016 base salary became fully guaranteed on March 12 this year, so most of Houston's 2017 base salary becoming fully guaranteed in 2016 isn't out of the ordinary. The $250,000 workout bonus is standard in Kansas City's most lucrative veteran contracts.

The Chiefs would get $8.195 million of much needed salary cap relief with this proposed contract. The team currently has less than $550,000 of cap space. Since Kansas City is already carrying Houston at a high cap number because of his franchise tag, more manageable cap numbers in the remaining years could be achieved with a smaller signing bonus and a larger 2015 base salary. That would be a departure from the team's preferences.

Bowe's first year base salary was $750,000, which is the same as Maclin's. Hali's 2011 base salary was $1 million.

[KCSLC2008 606]

Better for the tables/charts/format: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25229307/agents-take-a-fair-contract-solution-for-justin-houston-and-chiefs

[Guest Blast from the past]

They will give him his monster deal during our first round bye in the playoffs.

[Mugsy 225]

They will give him his monster deal during our first round bye in the playoffs.

 

Nope, they have to sign him in the next ten days or he can't be signed until he's a free agent in March. Unless they franchise tag him again which is unlikely because the cost will be much higher.