kcchief4lif 910 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/7/13/8950435/kansas-city-chiefs-justin-houston-jj-watt-contract I absolutely guarantee, with no doubt whatsoever, that at least a quarter of the people who read that title are skipping to the comment section, commenting on Facebook, or tweeting (without reading the article I'm about to write) some version of this: "LOL Houston is no Watt he's not worth the same money Watt is the best in the league Houston's not." That is going to happen. Even after I've predicted it will happen. But that's OK. It's the life I've chosen. But I'm here today to explain to you exactly WHY Houston is worth "J.J. Wattmoney" that we've heard so much about. My arguments will have very little to do with what a fantastic player Houston is. I've detailed that many times. Here I wrote about his utterly statistically historic 2014 season. Here I wrote about Houston's multifaceted abilities as a pass rusher and how he's virtually impossible to stop. And here I wrote about why it's sort of a myth that Houston was a byproduct of his (exceptional) supporting cast. Houston is one of the best 2-3 defensive players in football. It's just a fact. He's that good. Now, here's the part where someone says "yeah, but he's not as good as J.J. Watt so it doesn't make sense to pay him as much!" And that's where the heart of this article is. What does "J.J. Watt money" mean? It means this contract. There's your infamous J.J. Watt money. WAY too many people simply heard "Six-year, $100 million contract" and then stopped paying attention. This is absolutely the wrong way to discuss NFL contracts. The simple fact of the matter is that NFL free agency contracts are almost NEVER played out in their entirety. Either a player starts to underperform and is cut once he's cleared of dead money, or he plays very well and uses upcoming free agency as a bargaining chip in order to get an extension done early. Some rookie contracts are generally played out. Free agency contracts? Hardly ever. Look closely at the structure of the above contract. Most specifically, look at the "cap hit" every season. That is the single most important number when it comes to a team building around a player. The most common concern cited for signing Houston to J.J. Watt money is that it will cripple the Chiefs long term. Except that's not what this contract does. Instead, the cap hit doesn't rise above $15 million until the final two years of the contract. More importantly, in those last two years, there is NO GUARANTEED MONEY remaining on the deal. That means the team could easily cut a player on his contract in those last two seasons if he's not longer worth that size a cap hit. This contract, though sizable, isn't remotely the "franchise killer" it's been made out to be. People need to understand that before considering whether Houston is worth that amount. Now, to the "Houston is no J.J. Watt" argument. I agree that Houston is not as good as Watt. But NFL contracts are never, ever, ever, ever a straight comparison of player ability. They're just not. If you're viewing them as a straight comparison you're doing it wrong. Cap Inflation Matters. A lot. Every year the salary cap rises. It's called cap inflation. What that means is that today's $10 million a year contract takes up less of the salary cap (again, ALL that matters is percentage of cap, not the raw numbers) than it did 10 years ago. Or even five years ago. Quick example. Let's say the cap is $100 million. I pay you $10 million. It's 10 percent of the cap. The next year the cap goes up to $110 million. I pay you the exact same $10 million. Only now, that amounts to roughly 9.1 percent of the cap. Then it goes up to $120 million. Now that $10 million is only 8.3 percent of the cap. Look man, we're saving money! Inflation. So what does this have to do with Watt? The fact that Watt signed his contract the summer before the 2014 season. You know, a year ago. When the salary cap was set to be $133 million. The salary cap for the 2015 season has been said a shade above $143 million. So NFL teams have $10 million extra to play with this year than they did in 2014. If you don't think $10 million is a big deal, consider the fact that the entire draft class can be signed for less than that. Jamaal Charles is an $8 million cap hit this season. That's right, the difference in cap from 2014 to 2015 is enough to fit a superstar running back. And in case you're interested, the cap is going to keep increasing over time. While it won't always be massive jumps like the last two years, the fact that the NFL is swimming in money and dominates the ratings game is going to continue to change the picture with regards to what the cap is. All this means that today's "massive" contract is tomorrow's "bargain." This is why Russell Wilson can ask to be the highest paid player in football and have a shot at getting it, despite the fact that he's not remotely as good asAaron Rodgers. Cap inflation, especially the last several years, is a game changer. So "J.J. Watt money" isn't worth the same today as it was a year ago when it comes to the only number that matters; cap percentage. Bargaining Position: Negotiation 101 J.J. Watt, in addition to signing his contract a year ago, signed it with a year remaining on his old contract. What that meant was that no matter what happened in the negotiations, the team was going to retain his services without having to use the (very expensive, especially after the first year) franchise tag on him. If you don't think that changes the potential numbers on the table, you've never sat down at a real negotiation table. Never mind a negotiation table in which the stakes are nine figures. Bargaining position is everything. Houston's agent can say to the Chiefs "sure, you can keep from paying him, but he'll eat up a big chunk of your cap this year and a MASSIVE chunk of it next year. So you're just kicking this down the road a year to where we'll be in an even better position. Also, if you use the franchise tag on Houston next year, you're losing all your leverage with (insert player name here). So ... really, guys?" Don't think a statement very similar to that hasn't been said. There's a reason either Alex Smith or Justin Houstonhad to get signed last year; they needed the tag available for the other guy (yes, I would've tried to sign Houston first, but that ship has sailed). Now to be fair, I'm not sure whether there's an emergency situation where the franchise tag is going to be required next season. Dontari Poe's option was picked up by the team, so he's signed through 2016. Beyond him I'm not sure I see any necessities. However, the team is going to want the option of taggingSean Smith in case Marcus Peters and Philip Gaines don't work out as planned. Then there's that whole Derrick Johnson guy (that one should get done regardless, but still). And don't underestimate the tag's price, either. The second year of a franchise tag is substantially more expensive than the first year. So in other words, the Chiefs leverage gets worse next offseason and Houston's position gets better. The main point is that Houston is a year closer to freedom than Watt was when he signed his deal. That year gives him more leverage than Watt had at the time. So even if you were to ignore everything else, the increased leverage Houston possesses could be enough to overcome the edge Watt has as a player when it comes to the size of a contract signed. So now you know what it means to say "Justin Houston is worth J.J. Watt money." It is an absolute fact, and if the Chiefs were able to land him for that kind of contract I'd be thrilled. I anticipate his agent is asking for at least a little more. MAN I hope this gets done. Hopefully for JJ Watt money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Justin Houston isn't worth $16.67 million per year, or even $15 million per year. Cap maneuvering and cap inflation aside, there’s just no reason a defensive player should ever consume 10% of a team’s active cap spending. It’s generally very hard to justify paying even a quarterback that sort of money. Houston has earned a contract with a likely-to-be-paid value somewhere in the neighborhood of $12 million per year for five years. There are teams that will pay far more than that, and this is why at this point it is hard to expect Justin Houston to remain a Chief. Do I think Houston could duplicate a 22-sack effort within the Chiefs’ 2015 defense? He has a shot at it if he reports for Training Camp and plays all sixteen games. Would that be what puts the Chiefs over the top? I just don’t believe so. The logical follow-up question becomes, "Why pay a pass rushing outside linebacker quarterback money?" The answer to that it, "Of course you don’t." What the Chiefs need most this year is a defense that plays like it did last year, a healthy Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin (and to a lesser extent, a healthy Jamaal Charles), and most of all, an offensive line that can pass protect for more than two seconds at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 It seems like the article is more saying that it would have been great to extend last year instead of this year regarding cap inflation, guaranteed, perhaps lesser total, etc. It doesn't really go to why he deserves that much but rather we won't need to pay him that much, the guaranteed is limiting, cap is higher, etc. The problem is the agent knows this, too. He doesn't want the front loaded cap that both makes him cuttable and looking for a new contract in his twilight years or after production drops and also too expensive to keep later. He also knows the cap is going up, so he's asking for 10% of the future cap, not this year's cap. The cap increase is no longer hypothetical, but rather real, reliable, and plans from player's agents are made due to this, not just to the team's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefsfan1963 1,101 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 PhataLerror, I personally dont believe any athlete (or anyone in general) is worth 10 to 15 million a year, hell I dont thinl anyone is worth a million a year, but it is what it is and if the Chiefs don't pay him someone else will. The question is do you want to see Houston hoisting the Lombardi Trophy with another team or the Chief's? The Chief's have been hammered year in and year out for not paying for good talent. If they can pay him and not mortgage the future of the franchise then by all means go ahead and do it. If it will tie their hands for years to come then don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 PhataLerror, I personally dont believe any athlete (or anyone in general) is worth 10 to 15 million a year, hell I dont thinl anyone is worth a million a year, but it is what it is and if the Chiefs don't pay him someone else will. The question is do you want to see Houston hoisting the Lombardi Trophy with another team or the Chief's? The Chief's have been hammered year in and year out for not paying for good talent. If they can pay him and not mortgage the future of the franchise then by all means go ahead and do it. If it will tie their hands for years to come then don't. I don't think Houston will be hoisting any Lombardis unless he signs with someone for less than he's asking us. Or he won't here if we can't make good use of the salary cap. Only Denver is allowed to skirt the salary cap and they haven't won for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FANATIC 852 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Just pay the guy and go for it now. Building a consistent 9 win team may be good for attendance but doesn't win play off games. I am starved for a play off win. Do whatever it takes and pay this guy. Hunt stated Houston would be in KC for a long time. So Hunt.... pay him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhitter 1,424 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The two sides of the cap. A) having a cap keeps everyone basically on the same playing field as far as putting together a team. B.) Paying large contracts out to star players can often limit a team's ability to be flexible and fill out a quality roster. I love the fact the NFL allows a team to go from last to first with little turn around. Whether you like parity or not it allows any fanbase to feel as though they are not far away from contending. But I hate the fact that a stud player now has to be given crazy money in order to keep him. Houston is a tough one. I can't imagine any fan wanting to see him in anything but a Chiefs uni. But we have seen star players leave their first team because of contract issues before. I want Justin Houston to remain a Chief...but at what cost? As good as he is...if it handcuffs the team is that okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FANATIC 852 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Denver gets it done, Baltimore Gets it done, Pitts gets it done, Green Bay gets it done New England gets it done. Chiefs know how to do it. It cant be a secret so JUST DO IT! The future is always uncertain. Look at last year game one injuries and then Berry. Go for it this team has nothing to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I like the idea that one player can be excluded from the cap every year and a team gets to choose each year. Going from there, I'd maybe adjust by making a team have to match dollar for dollar to the NFL or charity or research or something as well as something limiting to disincentivize using it. But then you could keep one guy, structure contracts, etc. Maybe only your drafted guys are eligible or something. You obviously couldn't get free agents by offering an uncapped amount. The point is, I feel a team should be better able to keep their own guys without hurting their guys on the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefsfan1963 1,101 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 What would be nice is if Berry's contract could be cap exempt. Players on the NFI lust by no fault of their own should not count towards the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 What would be nice is if Berry's contract could be cap exempt. Players on the NFI lust by no fault of their own should not count towards the cap. Yep thats the part that really gets my goat..paying a guy multi millions who is questionable whether he'll ever play the game again and when he had was never as big of an impact as Houston and then not paying a guy that is ready willing an able to be another DT maybe better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefsfan1963 1,101 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Yep thats the part that really gets my goat..paying a guy multi millions who is questionable whether he'll ever play the game again and when he had was never as big of an impact as Houston and then not paying a guy that is ready willing an able to be another DT maybe betterNFL teams have been doing that for years, the y woul pay rookies for their potential and vets on past performance. Rarely do players get paid for their current performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Denver gets it done, Baltimore Gets it done, Pitts gets it done, Green Bay gets it done New England gets it done. Chiefs know how to do it. It cant be a secret so JUST DO IT! The future is always uncertain. Look at last year game one injuries and then Berry. Go for it this team has nothing to lose. I'm not certain why you would argue that these teams 'get it done' more than any others, or more than the Chiefs. During the past 16 NFL seasons, Pittsburgh has won two Super Bowls, the Packers one, and Denver none. The Patriots have won more Super Bowls during that time than these three teams combined, and besides Tom Brady, they really haven't hitched themselves to many players for too many years. They did have Kevin Faulk for many years, they kept Vince Wilfork for years, and they extended Rob Gronkowski more recently, but they have let many other players of significance walk (some of whom they drafted, and some of whom they signed in free agency): Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins, Aqib Talib, and more. A lot of the players that the Patriots did keep long-term had taken discounts on their extensions in order to remain with a successful team, and that was a major factor in the Patriots' success that has been sustained for an unprecedented amount of time in the NFL's Salary Cap era. I want to see the Chiefs manage their team the way the Patriots manage theirs: Identify and re-sign quality players that can be retained at a high value-to-dollar ratio, and trade away or release the players that cost more than they add in value. If Justin Houston doesn't want to give a discount to remain in Kansas City, he doesn't deserve to continue playing on a team trying to position itself for a sustained run of success. Let the Raiders have him. He'll accumulate sacks, and his team can keep losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcchief4lif 910 Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 Denver gets it done, Baltimore Gets it done, Pitts gets it done, Green Bay gets it done New England gets it done. Chiefs know how to do it. It cant be a secret so JUST DO IT! The future is always uncertain. Look at last year game one injuries and then Berry. Go for it this team has nothing to lose. None of those teams, with possibly the exception of Denver as of late. have overpaid for a players. Only place they have put big cash is the QB position. If anything they are the standard for cheap ass organizations that win. If they don't get a fair market deal done he can go out and put another 20 plus sack season with the Chiefs. Then more than likely get his big contract elsewhere. Unless he decides he wants to skip the tag signing which would be crazy IMO. Either way we are gonna get to see how hungry he is or desperate the chiefs are. Tic Toc Tic Toc to 4 oclock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Boom. I've saying he'd stay the whole time. You don't let a guy like that leave. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Boom. I've saying he'd stay the whole time. You don't let a guy like that leave. Period. No, you back up the Brinks truck. And then you become the Dolphins. Or You simply say, "This is a team game, I have twenty-two starters on both sides of the ball, and I'm not going to ask eight starters to take pay cuts for the sake of your salary." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 303Chiefs Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 No, you back up the Brinks truck. And then you become the Dolphins. Or You simply say, "This is a team game, I have twenty-two starters on both sides of the ball, and I'm not going to ask eight starters to take pay cuts for the sake of your salary." And then he leaves, signs with Denver or Oakland, and murders is for years to come. Sounds awesome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 And then he leaves, signs with Denver or Oakland, and murders is for years to come. Sounds awesome.... And then they can't afford to sign three or four other players that together would make a bigger difference, but the Chiefs would be able to. Sacks do not translate directly to wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 And then he leaves, signs with Denver or Oakland, and murders is for years to come. Sounds awesome.... But never wins the SB if he takes more or he takes a cut there and we're mad at the discount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 No, you back up the Brinks truck. And then you become the Dolphins. Or You simply say, "This is a team game, I have twenty-two starters on both sides of the ball, and I'm not going to ask eight starters to take pay cuts for the sake of your salary." We are fine. Build through draft and have a couple superstars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 303Chiefs Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 We are fine. Build through draft and have a couple superstars. Change always sucks...and this is definitely a new feel of how Chiefs do business after this signing to me. Roll with it people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Change always sucks...and this is definitely a new feel of how Chiefs do business after this signing to me. Roll with it people! https://twitter.com/kcchiefs/status/621393827329241088 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The guy just doesn't rush the passer. He is elite and all around. End of story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I don't think I would've ever been really mad about signing him, because I figure you get who you want and I trust the guys. But I also think I would've been more understanding if they didn't. Yes, I know, homer. But I trust Reid and Dorsey; don't know about Hunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FANATIC 852 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Yes! I take back all my Cheap Chief Comments and Cheap Expectations. The next few seasons should be a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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