kcchief4lif 910 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 According to this article by Kurt Bullard of the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 66 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2015. Here's a brief synopsis from that article on how these numbers came to happen. I converted the aggregated AV for each team into an ELO rating so that I could later use that value to calculate the win probability of each team in each game this season. With the mean ELO rating set at 1500, I set the possible range of ELO values between 1320-1900, since the standard deviation of ELO ratings has traditionally been 90 points. But ELO ratings don’t paint the whole picture, as teams who finish with worse records the previous year tend to benefit from easier schedules. I therefore ran a Monte Carlo simulation of each team’s season, calculating win probabilities based on the ELO ratings using the following formula: 1/(10^(Opponent ELO – ELO)/400) 1). Using Benjamin Morris’ conversion table from wins to playoff odds, I then calculated the odds that a team would make the playoffs for the upcoming year. I then normalized it so an average of 12 teams would make the playoffs every year. Now do you understand? Me either, but any analysis coming from a place like Harvard predicting good things for the Chiefs is alright by me. Per this article, the Denver Broncos have a 62 percent chance, the Chargers are at 33 and the Raiders come in with an NFL-low 1 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2015. Hard to argue with the minds at Harvard, which just made some friends in Chiefs Kingdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West 6,713 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I saw this.....Thanks for posting it... If I remember correctly they had the Chiefs and Fins playing in the AFC Championship w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mugsy 225 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I am VERY excited about this year. I haven't had this much hope in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcchief4lif 910 Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 I am VERY excited about this year. I haven't had this much hope in a while. Think of years past and don't get too high too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kychief 239 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 haven't been as hopeful since 93-95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAUI 4,758 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I converted the aggregated AV for each team into an ELO rating so that I could later use that value to calculate the win probability of each team in each game this season. With the mean ELO rating set at 1500, I set the possible range of ELO values between 1320-1900, since the standard deviation of ELO ratings has traditionally been 90 points. But ELO ratings don’t paint the whole picture, as teams who finish with worse records the previous year tend to benefit from easier schedules. I therefore ran a Monte Carlo simulation of each team’s season, calculating win probabilities based on the ELO ratings using the following formula: 1/(10^(Opponent ELO – ELO)/400) 1). Using Benjamin Morris’ conversion table from wins to playoff odds, I then calculated the odds that a team would make the playoffs for the upcoming year. I then normalized it so an average of 12 teams would make the playoffs every year. Well Hell.., There ya go.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcchief4lif 910 Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 I converted the aggregated AV for each team into an ELO rating so that I could later use that value to calculate the win probability of each team in each game this season. With the mean ELO rating set at 1500, I set the possible range of ELO values between 1320-1900, since the standard deviation of ELO ratings has traditionally been 90 points. But ELO ratings don’t paint the whole picture, as teams who finish with worse records the previous year tend to benefit from easier schedules. I therefore ran a Monte Carlo simulation of each team’s season, calculating win probabilities based on the ELO ratings using the following formula: 1/(10^(Opponent ELO – ELO)/400) 1). Using Benjamin Morris’ conversion table from wins to playoff odds, I then calculated the odds that a team would make the playoffs for the upcoming year. I then normalized it so an average of 12 teams would make the playoffs every year. Well Hell.., There ya go.., Simple formulas hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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