KC Crow

[Calichief 3,016]

Where are you?

Not to give you a big head, but I sure miss your analysis.

[KCSLC2008 606]

Apparently, most of us think he is lurking.

 

http://chiefscoalition.invisionzone.com/index.php?/topic/2781-poll-the-all-important-poll/&do=findComment&comment=31085

[SEMO 6,811]

I think he spends more time at the planet. He is mainly here around and leading up to the draft.

[KCSLC2008 606]

I think he spends more time at the planet. He is mainly here around and leading up to the draft.

I have to give him credit for not coming on here and giving a big, "I told you so."

 

I feel that you should either come here and tell us and stay on and tell us you told us so like oldtimer or Wilkie. There are those who will tell us, leave, and then come back and say "I told you so."

 

I have no idea whether they would come back to admit anything if we won because we haven't for 40 years and I haven't been on the internet that long.

[kccrow 529]

Hey guys, haven't been around in a while. I need to pop in more often. I lurk from time to time on game day but there hasn't been much to discuss. Alex Smith is still Alex Smith. Andy Reid is still Andy Reid. Bob Sutton forgot how to run a defense. Anyhow, here's some analysis I did today, thought you might enjoy.

 

A breakdown of key stats and how they relate to KC's current 1-3 record:

Turnovers matter. Andy Reid is 21-16 with Kansas City (including playoffs), and his team is 3-10 when losing the turnover battle. Looking even deeper, his team is 4-2 when they break even. This leaves the Chiefs at 14-4 when they generate at least 1 more turnover than their opponents. The only game KC has lost when they've produced 2 or more turnovers than their opponents is the Wild Card debacle against Indianapolis when they posted a +3 mark there. Bottom line, Bob Sutton's defense needs to force turnovers and Reid's offense needs to take care of the ball. So far in 2015, the Chiefs are +2, -4, -1, and -1 respectively in turnover differential, and their record reflects that statistic at 1-3.

How important is defending the run? Well, Andy Reid's teams have gone 10-13 when giving up 100 yards or more on the ground. Not as bad as one might expect, but its less than a 50/50 chance to win. As part of that 10-13 statistic, KC has given up 100+ rushing yards twice in 2015 and they are 0-2 in those contests.

How about points for and against? The Chiefs have went 17-7 when they've scored more than 20 points. When they don't score more than 20? 4-9. So, it is important to put at least 20 on the board, and the Chiefs have done so nearly 65% of the time. When KC gives up more than 20 points, they are a staggering 1-14 under Reid's watch. That win was the 56-31 festival in Oakland in 2013. Verdict is if the Chiefs' defense falters, KC virtually has no shot of winning. Obviously the most important statistic is the Chiefs giving up 20 or less points, with a record of 20-2. Part of these statistics are that KC has given up more than 20 points in all 3 of their losses in 2015.

How often does the Chiefs' scoring more than 20 points go hand-in-hand with the defense giving up less than 21? Well, it happened 16 times in 21 wins (76%), so frequently. That also means that the Chiefs offense has scored more than 20 points more frequently when the defense gives up 20 or less points than if the defense gives up more than 20 points. KC's offense, remember, scored more than 20 points in 24 contests. So, 67% (16/24) of the time that the offense scores more than 20 points, it does so when the defense gives up 20 or less. Perhaps KC's best offense is a great defense.

A little bit more with tying turnover margin to PF and PA... In the 13 games KC has lost the turnover battle, they have given up more than 20 points 8 times. This is an obvious correlation, that other teams will score more points when you give them the ball, but its important nonetheless. One thing that did stick out is that the Chiefs scored more than 20 points on 6 occasions when they lost the turnover battle. The Chiefs have shown that they can score enough points to win despite losing the turnover battle about half the time but they give up too many about 2/3 of the time. This math says the Chiefs will win 1 out of every 4 games they lose the turnover battle in (Actually, 28%). Statistically speaking, that's about spot on with their 3/13 mark (23%).

[oldtimer 8,686]

Good seeing ya Crow. dont be a stranger

[kccrow 529]

Thanks OT, good to see you too.

 

I pop on and read more than anything, either place I go. It's been hard watching the Chiefs this season, such a disaster in every facet of the game.

 

The collapse of the defense is most concerning and I'm not sure where they begin there. The old players look old and slow. Hali looks very slow. He's still got the effort, but the effort isn't getting him there. The Chiefs have to play Ford, Moses, and Zombo, its just out of necessity. DJ had a nice game week one, but he just hasn't looked good since. I think his body is already worn down and its only a quarter of the way into the season. He gets washed out of way too many run plays, he can't stick with backs and tight ends. He just seems a step behind despite his effort. This really sucks because Mauga isn't very good next to him to begin with. Its really a shame that KC lost that March kid for the season because I'd be screaming for him to start right now. Wilson isn't ready, but he might just have to get alot more playing time sooner than later. I don't know what to think of DeVito. I know Poe isn't getting the job done, he was brought back too soon, way too soon. DeVito pretty much has to start because KC needs Howard to play the nose more frequently until Poe is back to 100%. If KC doesn't sit Poe and let him get to that, you might as well chalk this up as a lost season for him as a difference maker. And as much as I like Eric Berry, he just is not ready to be starting. He doesn't look good out there.

 

To ramble on about the defense, I put alot of blame on Bob Sutton right now. His inability to adjust is mind boggling. And to trot out the same worthless players time and again to get beat just doesn't add up either. Cooper and Fleming deserve to be outright cut right now. Nelson needs to be activated, and why he isn't doesn't make any sense. He played well in preseason for a rookie. The Chiefs need to scour the wire for free agents at CB and bring some new blood in. With Gaines out of the season, they can't rely on playing safeties at CB the rest of the year. Why in the world is Abdullah not playing? Why would they ever bring Branch in over him? I just don't understand. Why is Branch playing at CB rather than moving Parker down to CB? Questions like that make me wonder. Sutton is dialing up blitzes at a snails pace and the front 5, if you will, aren't generating enough pressure to keep QBs from dicing up a hobbled secondary. More questions than answers and most of the blame falls at Sutton's feet right now.

 

On offense, I don't like Alex Smith and he proves to me why over and over again weekly. The offensive line is slowly getting better but they still don't offer optimal time, although Alex gets 3 seconds more often than he doesn't. Problem is he needs 4, and this line isn't ready for that just yet. Right guard is the biggest issue and KC doesn't have a solution on the roster imo. I really think that KC needs to start putting Sherman in the game to pass block like Green Bay did with Kuhn a couple years ago when the Packers' line was just as bad. I think if KC gets back to the basics and runs that two backs, one tight end and two receiver set more frequently, then they'll see more success on offense. Alex hasn't shown he can make all the reads in multiple wide anyhow, might as well give him more time and also be set up to run the ball more effectively.

[artsy 1,137]

Thanks OT, good to see you too.

 

I pop on and read more than anything, either place I go. It's been hard watching the Chiefs this season, such a disaster in every facet of the game.

 

The collapse of the defense is most concerning and I'm not sure where they begin there. The old players look old and slow. Hali looks very slow. He's still got the effort, but the effort isn't getting him there. The Chiefs have to play Ford, Moses, and Zombo, its just out of necessity. DJ had a nice game week one, but he just hasn't looked good since. I think his body is already worn down and its only a quarter of the way into the season. He gets washed out of way too many run plays, he can't stick with backs and tight ends. He just seems a step behind despite his effort. This really sucks because Mauga isn't very good next to him to begin with. Its really a shame that KC lost that March kid for the season because I'd be screaming for him to start right now. Wilson isn't ready, but he might just have to get alot more playing time sooner than later. I don't know what to think of DeVito. I know Poe isn't getting the job done, he was brought back too soon, way too soon. DeVito pretty much has to start because KC needs Howard to play the nose more frequently until Poe is back to 100%. If KC doesn't sit Poe and let him get to that, you might as well chalk this up as a lost season for him as a difference maker. And as much as I like Eric Berry, he just is not ready to be starting. He doesn't look good out there.

 

To ramble on about the defense, I put alot of blame on Bob Sutton right now. His inability to adjust is mind boggling. And to trot out the same worthless players time and again to get beat just doesn't add up either. Cooper and Fleming deserve to be outright cut right now. Nelson needs to be activated, and why he isn't doesn't make any sense. He played well in preseason for a rookie. The Chiefs need to scour the wire for free agents at CB and bring some new blood in. With Gaines out of the season, they can't rely on playing safeties at CB the rest of the year. Why in the world is Abdullah not playing? Why would they ever bring Branch in over him? I just don't understand. Why is Branch playing at CB rather than moving Parker down to CB? Questions like that make me wonder. Sutton is dialing up blitzes at a snails pace and the front 5, if you will, aren't generating enough pressure to keep QBs from dicing up a hobbled secondary. More questions than answers and most of the blame falls at Sutton's feet right now.

 

On offense, I don't like Alex Smith and he proves to me why over and over again weekly. The offensive line is slowly getting better but they still don't offer optimal time, although Alex gets 3 seconds more often than he doesn't. Problem is he needs 4, and this line isn't ready for that just yet. Right guard is the biggest issue and KC doesn't have a solution on the roster imo. I really think that KC needs to start putting Sherman in the game to pass block like Green Bay did with Kuhn a couple years ago when the Packers' line was just as bad. I think if KC gets back to the basics and runs that two backs, one tight end and two receiver set more frequently, then they'll see more success on offense. Alex hasn't shown he can make all the reads in multiple wide anyhow, might as well give him more time and also be set up to run the ball more effectively.

Excellent analysis, buddy!

 

But, what I don't understand is our coaching staff. We have, what many of the pundits have stated, an all star and experienced coaching staff. They have to be seeing what we're all seeing, right?

[Calichief 3,016]

Thanks OT, good to see you too.

 

I pop on and read more than anything, either place I go. It's been hard watching the Chiefs this season, such a disaster in every facet of the game.

 

The collapse of the defense is most concerning and I'm not sure where they begin there. The old players look old and slow. Hali looks very slow. He's still got the effort, but the effort isn't getting him there. The Chiefs have to play Ford, Moses, and Zombo, its just out of necessity. DJ had a nice game week one, but he just hasn't looked good since. I think his body is already worn down and its only a quarter of the way into the season. He gets washed out of way too many run plays, he can't stick with backs and tight ends. He just seems a step behind despite his effort. This really sucks because Mauga isn't very good next to him to begin with. Its really a shame that KC lost that March kid for the season because I'd be screaming for him to start right now. Wilson isn't ready, but he might just have to get alot more playing time sooner than later. I don't know what to think of DeVito. I know Poe isn't getting the job done, he was brought back too soon, way too soon. DeVito pretty much has to start because KC needs Howard to play the nose more frequently until Poe is back to 100%. If KC doesn't sit Poe and let him get to that, you might as well chalk this up as a lost season for him as a difference maker. And as much as I like Eric Berry, he just is not ready to be starting. He doesn't look good out there.

 

To ramble on about the defense, I put alot of blame on Bob Sutton right now. His inability to adjust is mind boggling. And to trot out the same worthless players time and again to get beat just doesn't add up either. Cooper and Fleming deserve to be outright cut right now. Nelson needs to be activated, and why he isn't doesn't make any sense. He played well in preseason for a rookie. The Chiefs need to scour the wire for free agents at CB and bring some new blood in. With Gaines out of the season, they can't rely on playing safeties at CB the rest of the year. Why in the world is Abdullah not playing? Why would they ever bring Branch in over him? I just don't understand. Why is Branch playing at CB rather than moving Parker down to CB? Questions like that make me wonder. Sutton is dialing up blitzes at a snails pace and the front 5, if you will, aren't generating enough pressure to keep QBs from dicing up a hobbled secondary. More questions than answers and most of the blame falls at Sutton's feet right now.

 

On offense, I don't like Alex Smith and he proves to me why over and over again weekly. The offensive line is slowly getting better but they still don't offer optimal time, although Alex gets 3 seconds more often than he doesn't. Problem is he needs 4, and this line isn't ready for that just yet. Right guard is the biggest issue and KC doesn't have a solution on the roster imo. I really think that KC needs to start putting Sherman in the game to pass block like Green Bay did with Kuhn a couple years ago when the Packers' line was just as bad. I think if KC gets back to the basics and runs that two backs, one tight end and two receiver set more frequently, then they'll see more success on offense. Alex hasn't shown he can make all the reads in multiple wide anyhow, might as well give him more time and also be set up to run the ball more effectively.

Outstanding crow.

Abdullah is our best DB by far. The defense changed when he became starter.

Diont disappear.