kccrow 529 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 That was not my point. As a rule, the drop-off between an RB1 and an RB2 is a lot less than the drop-off between the QB1 and QB2. The Steelers were missing players as were the Chiefs. Ben Roethlisberger is no slouch, but the Steelers are winless in 2015 in games where the opponent scored more than 20 points. Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Vick are both 1-1 on the year in games they started and finished. It takes more than a quarterback to win a game, which is why it is so annoying to me that when things aren't going well in Kansas City, everyone jumps on Alex Smith. He's the least of this team's problems. The important thing is that the Chiefs didn't play down to the level of their opposition. Agree with this. And that 20 point thing is a big deal in the NFL. I posted stats a while back about the Chiefs record with Reid when they score more than 20 or give up more than 20. This is the magic number in the NFL, as a rule. Sure, its not perfect science. Same as ANYPA for QBs. While it is correct 80% of the time, there remains that 20%. Similar results with the 20 point rule. Alex Smith, however, is not the least of this team's problems. He's one of the primary problems. There are problems to go around though, and that part I can get on board with. The offensive line isn't all that good and the defense has some serious holes, whether by age or by injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WichitaZRide 321 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Remember that time the Rams started that "meaningless" arena football QB Kurt Warner.... Whether they end up being successful or not....they are far from meaningless....every year backup QBs win starting jobs with future teams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mugsy 225 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The 20 point thing is about the defense as much as it is about the offense. When Monte Kiffen was in Tampa the goal was to never give up more than 17 points. He didn't put an emphasis on turnover, sacks, or anything else. It was about points. He and Dungy figured if he could hold teams to 17 or less the offense should be able to score 20. Teams with strong defenses have copied this philosophy for a while. I think Sutton has embraced this ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calichief 3,016 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Agree with this. And that 20 point thing is a big deal in the NFL. I posted stats a while back about the Chiefs record with Reid when they score more than 20 or give up more than 20. This is the magic number in the NFL, as a rule. Sure, its not perfect science. Same as ANYPA for QBs. While it is correct 80% of the time, there remains that 20%. Similar results with the 20 point rule. Alex Smith, however, is not the least of this team's problems. He's one of the primary problems. There are problems to go around though, and that part I can get on board with. The offensive line isn't all that good and the defense has some serious holes, whether by age or by injury. Alex is a big part of the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FANATIC 852 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 In 2013, Alex Smith's Chiefs' offense managed 117 points over their first six games. Smith committed only three turnovers in those games. In 2015, Peyton Manning's Broncos' offense has managed 111 points over six games in spite of Manning's 10 turnovers, including 3 defensive touchdowns given up. Which quarterback played better against bad teams/teams that shot themselves in the foot. Which quarterback needed more help from his defense and special teams? Does anyone really recognize how different the narrative for 2015 would be if Jamaal Charles doesn't give up a defensive score right after the Chiefs' defense allowed the Broncos to tie the game late after holding as much as a 14 point lead early in the game? Chiefs would have lost in OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Chiefs would have lost in OT. We don't know that. So no one can claim a victory there, either. That's why whenever I do my what if's, I always say five and two or four and three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidfriend 1,151 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The 20 point thing is about the defense as much as it is about the offense. When Monte Kiffen was in Tampa the goal was to never give up more than 17 points. He didn't put an emphasis on turnover, sacks, or anything else. It was about points. He and Dungy figured if he could hold teams to 17 or less the offense should be able to score 20. Teams with strong defenses have copied this philosophy for a while. I think Sutton has embraced this ideal. And it's a dinosaur. The league has changes rules a lot to generate more passing and points. You have to pass well and score more than 20 avg per game to be very successful. The baseline anymore is at least 25. If they managed to score at least that much in the games vs Denver and Chicago, they are 4-3 right now and still in the playoff hunt. Chiefs fans still think you can win with antiqued philosophy. Cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoStud 3,253 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Remember when the Chiefs were 9-0? That's this year's Donkeys. They are set up for a big fall. They've barely beaten some bad teams. The Broncos have a legit defense. the Chiefs were a mirage. If anything this Broncos team resembles the Tampa team that won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 And it's a dinosaur. The league has changes rules a lot to generate more passing and points. You have to pass well and score more than 20 avg per game to be very successful. The baseline anymore is at least 25. If they managed to score at least that much in the games vs Denver and Chicago, they are 4-3 right now and still in the playoff hunt. Chiefs fans still think you can win with antiqued philosophy. Cute Back up LF on this one... Here are the ppg averages for winning teams in the NFL over the past 3 years. (that first column of AvPPG PA should be AvPPG PF... my bad on the typo)... It's important to note that only 2 teams in that span have scored an average of less than 21 ppg, both occurred last season with Detroit at 20.1 ppg and Arizona at 19.4 ppg. A total of 24 of these 42 teams averaged 25 ppg or more (57%). That number climbs to 30 of 42 at 24 ppg or more (71%). A total of 25 of these teams gave up 21 ppg or less (60%). That number climbs to 34 of 42 at 22 ppg or less (81%). As you can see by the League Average, the teetering point now hovers around 23 PPG in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azchief21 5,278 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The Broncos have a legit defense. the Chiefs were a mirage. If anything this Broncos team resembles the Tampa team that won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson. The Broncos have a legit defense. the Chiefs were a mirage. If anything this Broncos team resembles the Tampa team that won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson. Like I stated, Denver hasn't played a decent offense yet. The Chiefs appeared to have an incredible defense until they played good teams that year. I think you have GB, Cinn. and NE coming up. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMO 6,811 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The Broncos have a legit defense. the Chiefs were a mirage. If anything this Broncos team resembles the Tampa team that won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson. :lol: A legit defense against who?? They haven't played anybody. Minnesota?? 13-27 opponents' combined record, so far. The NFL babys your team so much. Even their "tough" games, they get to play at home. Play all the weak teams on the road. Non-division home games: Bal @ Den (this was supposed to be a playoff preview, Donks get to play at home) Min @ Den GB @ Den NE @ Den Cin @ Den Non division away games: Den @ Det Den @ Cle Den @ Ind (I will give you this one. But, only reason the NFL wanted this one at Indy was to give the golden boy another homecoming) Den @ Chi Den @ Pit We all know KC is struggling and most of us are smart enough to see that they are not going anywhere. Donk fans are in denial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mugsy 225 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Chiefs fans still think you can win with antiqued philosophy. Cute. Fans or coaches/management? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The Broncos have a legit defense. the Chiefs were a mirage. If anything this Broncos team resembles the Tampa team that won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson. The Broncos D is playing very well, but we have some legit talent on D. Even without some of our best players last year, we did well. Not dissing the Broncos D, but I think you under estimate ours. They have had a bad run, but we are closer to what you saw last year than what you saw so far this year. Just one man's opinion, but we will have a chance to prove it in your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eraser 722 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The NFL seems to be off a bit this year. The level of play is not as stellar as in the past, imho. According to the Xfinity Sports, the Chiefs rank 24 this week. That is probably about right according to the entirety of their played schedule. However, looking at the teams in front of them, such as Minn., Chi., STL., and Buf, it may not be all that bad. Todd Gurley did not play in preseason against the Chiefs, but the Chiefs looked to be much better. Minnesota is not better than the Chiefs on a good day. Same goes for Chicago. However, those last two teams won, and that is what counts. The Chiefs have 9 games remaining, and they aren't facing tough competition from here on out. Detroit is ranked 31 Cleveland is 28 San Diego is 20 Buffalo is 16 and Oakland is 15 The only other team the Chiefs play this year in the regular season will be Denver. Denver should have lost to KC but the Chiefs found a way to lose. Of the remaining 8 non Denver games, most rank below the mean of the NFL teams. This season has been atrocious, but it is not outside the realm of possibilities that the Chiefs could win at least 7 of those games remaining. That would secure them with a winning record for the year, and perhaps a playoff game. Seems weird, but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 This is true. I just want to see some good football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 And, of course, the Chiefs must win against the Lions this weekend. They'll have the bye week after that in order to focus on cohesion. If they come out of the bye with a two-game win streak, motivation should be high going into the game in Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 There is one thing that leads me to believe that the Chiefs cannot make the post-season with a record less than 10-6: The two wild card teams both have four wins after six games (Jets) or seven games (Steelers). The remaining schedule for the Jets is no more daunting than the one they started with: @ Oakland vs. Jaguars vs. Bills @ Houston vs. Dolphins @ New York Giants vs. Titans @ Dallas vs. Patriots @ Buffalo With three games remaining against AFC South teams with a combined record of 5-15, there seem to be few games left in which the Jets will face real competition. The Giants matchup can be tough, and by the time they play against the Cowboys, Romo and Bryant might be back. There might be a surprise here or there, but the Jets could go 12-4 this year (and still be a Wild Card team). The Steelers' slate is a little tougher, and with only a one-and-a-half-game lead over the Chiefs and some tough matchups ahead, they could be the team fighting for the sixth seed. I'm not sure the Steelers will lose more than three out of their next nine games. I think 10-6 is the Chiefs' number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSLC2008 606 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Damn fumbles. Would have probably helped the Vikings game, if not Denver. Damn defensive last drive, would have helped the Chicago game, if not Denver. Damn coaching, would have helped the Vikings or Bears game time-wise and would have made the Bengals game closer. Damn offense, would have beaten any of the Vikings, Bears, or Denver. Damn offensive line, would have helped Denver or Bears game. Damn Smith, would have helped Denver, Chicago, Minnesota games and made the Green Bay and Cincinnati games closer. Damn not being 5-2. Damn not being 4-3. Heck, even 3-4. One game buffer is one two few of games that we need. Denver is the only paper-loss we can steal a win from. I also had us losing to Baltimore pre-season and drspite what's happened, that's still a probability for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eraser 722 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 This is true. I just want to see some good football. True. Right now they need to start giving the fans something to cheer about. It will be a bonus if they manage to sneak into the playoffs. At home, the fans got cheated in only one game, against Chicago. The Chiefs gave the fans a good game against Denver until they tossed the game away. The fans got to see a win at home against Pittsburgh. The first part was a little slow, but it picked up in the second half. The Chiefs play Detroit in a home game in London. In other words, the ticket holders got screwed out of one game. I bet they would exchange this game for the Chicago game, where they got to watch a team that was not worth watching. KC fans have four more games remaining at Arrowhead. Buffalo Bills - November 29 San Diego Chargers - December 13 Cleveland Browns - December 27 Oakland Raiders - January 3 They should win each one of those games, especially if the offensive line woes have actually been addressed. Buffalo has a very good defense (currently ranked 10th in efficiency). Overall, Buffalo ranks 10th. However, Tyrod Taylor has a knee injury, and they have not been the same since his injury. Even still, the biggest game they won was at Miami, and they are as big of a mess as KC. Even when Taylor returns, they are not the Juggernaut some believe them to be. Here is an interesting link http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff The above shows a breakdown of efficiency per team. Kansas City has played really bad football. They are still ranked 15 overall, and their worst category is defensive efficiency. Despite their woes on offense, their inability to adjust on defense has been a major issue. One thing the Chiefs are finally doing is getting their rookies involved. Ramik Wilson at first, and now Steven Nelson. I had Nelson as the best value pick in the draft for the Chiefs. If he can settle into the nickle, the defensive secondary should improve. Sean Smith has had a slow start after being suspended for the first three games. This secondary should start to improve over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I agree. Peters and Smith are a good pair. Nelson would be a much needed third. I hope to see the two young safeties deep on passing downs. Freaking Raiders are looking good. The way they always play us scares me a little. I would love to take that road game in Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 When I first looked at the schedule before the year began, I thought to myself, "This is a fair schedule, with a good balance between tough and easy matchups, and not excessively favorable or unfavorable in home or away games, the bye in the middle of the season, and a home Thursday Night game to make up for the home game lost overseas." Then Sean Smith got a three-game ban (including two of the three games in the year in which he would be most needed), the offensive line didn't make it out of preseason healthy, Phillip Gaines was lost for the year, and then Jamaal Charles was also lost. Suddenly, even the 'easier' games became difficult, and the Chiefs didn't show any sort of progress until they played a game against a team that was down a Franchise Quarterback. Sandwiched between seemingly every loss was another bit of very bad news, and suddenly this Chiefs team seemed even worse than the 2014 version. And perhaps they are. But it's worth mentioning that the 2014 Chiefs lost some games the way the 2015 Chiefs lost games: The Chiefs were hanging tough with the Titans before the season-ending injuries to Johnson, DeVito, and Allen (see vs. Bears, 2015); the Chiefs had a lead over the Broncos before the Broncos offense totally steamrolled the Chiefs' defense (see vs. Broncos, 2015); the Chiefs held the lead over the 49ers in the fourth quarter, but collapsed under the weight of special teams gaffes (see vs. Broncos, 2015)... I could write more, but I tire of recounting the brutality of a season in which the defense alternated between stellar and inept, and the offensive line alternated between inept and awful. I'd really rather turn my back on 2014, but 2015 keeps reminding me of the unfairness of 2014: Jekyll and Hyde performances by all squads that spent most of the season missing key starters. Here we are again. But there is one positive thing about 2014 that is worth recollection: After starting out 0-2, the Chiefs went on a 7-1 run that hit a brick wall only after following up an emotional home win against the eventual repeat NFC Champion Seahawks with a heartbreak road loss rendered sloppy in terrible weather on Thursday night against the then-winless Raiders. Right now, the Chiefs have just ended a five-game slide with a key win against the team that effectively ended their playoff hopes a season ago, and if the Chiefs do manage to go on a multi-win run as they did last year, that victory might prove to be the most important one of the regular season when it comes to tiebreakers. It would be nice to watch the Chiefs put a stamp on the hapless Lions' 2015 Season's death certificate, and to do so in definitive fashion. It would be good to see the Chiefs' revamped offensive line protect Smith against their middle-of-the-road pass rush, and it would be good to see the Chiefs get meaningful pressure on Stafford as other defenses have done throughout the year. It would be nice to see Smith play better just by virtue of entering a game with a rational trust in his offensive line, and it would be nice to see a Chiefs secondary that locks down the receiver corps once the rest of the team has done its job well. It would be nice to see Charcandrick West and the rest of the Chiefs' ball-carriers go another full game without losing a fumble. If the Chiefs win that game, we can have a little more rational trust of our own in our favorite team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoStud 3,253 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Highly unlikely the Chiefs make the playoffs, or even have a 0.500 record... You either want to see vast improvement or the team tank so they can send Andy packing. Reid just isn't the solution, he's a big part of the problem actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kychief 239 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 highly unlikely manning wins another playoff game.. kubiak isn't the solution..he'll be packing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoStud 3,253 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 That's entirely possible. Manning is pushing 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Meanwhile, the Chiefs' bid for 3-5 has been further jeapordized: Ben Grubbs has been ruled out for this weekend's game in London. It's got to be so hard to run a team in desperate need of stability, but with constant change in personnel due to injury and inexperience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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